Mini 451 - Totally Awesome Mafia, Game Over

[CrashTextDummie]

Analysis time! I'll answer all pending questions directed at me when I'm done with this.

1. ~N9V~

Actually, I'm not gonna bother analyzing him in detail. I am 99% sure he is the SK.

Shit, looks like mafia and SK. Vote A Papaya You seem over sincere about the lose.

Quoted again for emphasis. If you were a vig who just shot a townie, you wouldn't say anything period. Anything else makes no sense at all. You wouldn't make yourself a target for a nightkill because

the scum do not know it was you who shot him

if you shut your mouth. And certainly if you anticipate having to claim at a later point (which you

would

as a vig), you wouldn't undermine it by openly speculating that the kill was the work of an SK. It's completely counter-intuitive.

What makes you think we have an SK, ~N9V~?

You know why I asked this question? Because a townie's first thought when seeing two dead bodies is usually not "oh shit, an SK", it's "huh, two killing parties". The correct answer, by the way, would have been "because I know there is one".

Stabbing is usually the result of an SK kill, CTD.

You take this whole misleading thing pretty far for a claimed vig.

He needs to die.

2. Stewie

Interest to hunt scum seems pretty low. Most of his posts are comments on token bits of analysis/theory, or questions for players to clarify certain statements. The only real commitment he made so far was to his vote on N-L.

What I find interesting is the fact that while he made (what I consider to be) the original case against N-L, and confirmed

once

that N-L is his preferred play, he never actively pushed for the lynch. I get a sense of apathy from his posts during this time, which indicates to me that he may have been laying low after having gotten the ball rolling, leaving the grunt work to others.

This changed somewhat once N-L came close to being lynched:

A claim as in saying what your role is. I know you are new, so I'll tell you this: it is in your best interest at the moment to tell us what your role is in your own words. Do not quote the mod PM.

How about you try to defend yourself?

You never really tried...

Curiously, the feeling I'm getting from these posts is that he's talking to a townie, and knows it. At the very least, they don't sound like words coming from a man who's ready to lynch the person he's talking to.

As for D2, I don't see any real scum-hunting efforts from him at all until he joined the ~N9V~ action.

Here's a couple of questions for you, Stewie:
Apart from ~N9V~, who do you think is scum? Who do you think is town? You've been a shadow so far (which is somewhat of a contrast to Mini 380, the last game we played together).

3. Off the Mark

Rereading, I see where some of the suspicion on him is coming from. Of note is that he originally took his vote off N-L, only to put it back on once Stewie made his case (and momentum shifted). What followed was a fairly long period of indecision; he kept making arguments for N-L to be town (borderline defenses) on the basis of WIFOM, while keeping his vote on the whole time.

On the other hand, I find most of his reasoning on day 1 to be easy to follow and reasonable from a pro-town perspective. This includes his swing towards hjallti (even though I disagree with most of it, more on that later). I wonder though:

OK now I am pretty dang sure I was right about the 2-scum scenario I posted earlier. N-L and hjallti are both guilty, folks.

Do you still think hjallti is guilty?

Here are some things I don't like:

OK here's the deal. Either I'm right or I'm wrong. Either way, the town benefits because we will find scum. If I'm right and Nekka is scum, then Hjallti and now possibly bobbyplump are probably scum too. If I'm wrong and Nekka is townie, then I know I am going to look very bad. So then you can lynch me or lynch the guys that agreed with me without saying much else, Lowell and Papaya.

What I'm trying to say is, even if I'm totally off-base, I think I've helped the town with this theory,

even if it is just because I helped expose those who are agreeing with what turns out to be a bad idea

.

This reads as a possible attempt to soften the blow of leading the town into a mislynch. I particularly dislike the the underlined part, since "exposing those who are agreeing with what turns out to be a bad idea" does not actually help the town. At least half the people participating in a D1 mislynch are usually townies. In addition, that statement could be designed to shift responsibility towards other people on the wagon.

As for D2, there was a significant shift in his modus operandi. The first post of the day set the tone:

Well that sucks, and I know I'm going to look bad today. I knew something was wrong at the end of day 1. When N-L made his "I give up" speech and I asked him for his motivations, I was thinking he wouldn't post that (about wanting everyone to lynch me today) unless he was just misguided town.

I don't want to lead the town astray again today, so I'm not going to make a huge argument here. I'll just say I'm suspicious of the following: N9V, Hjallti, and Stewie. I'll lay out my reasons eventually, but I want to see what others think first.

How about leading the town to lynch scum? For someone who was so confident the day before, I find this subdued approach noteworthy. It's hard to tell whether he lost confidence in his own scum-hunting abilities, or decided to step it down a notch in order not to get too much flak. Maybe he can answer that?

What follows is a bunch of set-up theory and fluff, until:

You know what? I agree 100% with Nabakov. We need to hear from CTD. I have read other games of his and I know he is a smart guy who usually does solid analysis. So what the heck is he doing here? Is this some sort of playstyle experiment? If so, it seems to me more likely to experiment with a scum or SK role. We need his input so we have something to evaluate.

vote: CrashTextDummie

Now I gotta say, I find this very interesting. If you've read other games with me and know I usually do solid analysis, and you think I'm more likely to experiment with a scum role, then why did you wait so long to bring this up? Why didn't you address it on D1, instead of explaining my votes for me? You seemed to be quite comfortable with my play back then.

Overall, I could see him as scum.

4. Hjallti

I like him the best out of the people on the N-L wagon. His early defensiveness/being emotional reads townie to me, as there's no reason for scum to be upset over being called a lurker when he announced it to the mod (i.e. did nothing wrong). I like his thought-process in regard to N-L, and it sounds genuinely pro-town. He compared N-L's behavior to his own a lot, and these things are hard to fake.

There's not a lot to analyze on D2, so I'll cut this short:
I currently don't believe Hjallti to be scum.

----------

That concludes the people who were on the mislynch yesterday. I'll do the rest in the next post.

[Hjallti]

I still want ~N9v~ to answer my question

In his maiden game

he got emotional

in exactly the same way as NL and got lynched the same way as town. It is so strange to me that ~N9V~ sees behaviour he did produce himself earlier and didn't project the situation.

The paradox in your statement is that you suggest getting emotional is scummy but admit you voted 'on a vibe', and thus you say yourself that your vote is a scumtell.

For now: my vote stands.

[CrashTextDummie]

Gah, I'm too tired to finish my analysis. I'll finish it later/tomorrow if the day isn't over. I'll answer some questions though:

Thank you for the analysis CTD. I find myself nodding along with the vast majority of it. Just one more question, though - can you PLEASE explain your lack of content throughout D1?

It was indeed a playstyle experiment. My usual playstyle is very time-intensive; it takes me a long time to verbalize my thoughts due to English being my second language, and I rarely post without doing extensive amounts of rereading.

Basically, what I did was I did the usual amount of reading and analyzing, but left out the verbalizing part. It worked quite well, too, except my scum-dar sucked.

My main question now - why did you vote for A Papaya and FoS Bobbyplumb (something that is still unexplained) but give no reasoning?

I've already explained why I voted A Papaya (and I explained just now why I gave no reasoning).

The FoS on bobbyplump was a left-over from D1, where I felt that he was the most likely among the N-L defenders to be either a scum-buddy or a scum buddying up to a townie. I'll expand on this once I do the analysis on him.

[PJ.]

pickemgenius - 1(Crashtextdummie)
~N9V~ - 4(Hjallti, Off The Mark, NabakovNabakov, Stewie)
NabakovNabakov - 1 (~N9V~)

Not Voting - (pickemgenius, Aimee, Bobbyplump)

With 9 alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Changed to match Stewies vote in 418

[Off the Mark]

Do you still think hjallti is guilty?

No, I've gotten some good town vibes from him on Day 2, so I'm not very suspicious of him anymore. I think I overreacted on Day 1 to his defensiveness.

At least half the people participating in a D1 mislynch are usually townies. In addition, that statement could be designed to shift responsibility towards other people on the wagon.

That's exactly what it was. I know I'm pro-town, but it seems to me that people that leap on a bad bandwagon for no good reason are likely to be scum. I didn't like how things were going with people saying "lynch those who went after N-L the hardest if N-L comes up town" because I knew that would lead to another townie mislynch - mine.

It's hard to tell whether he lost confidence in his own scum-hunting abilities, or decided to step it down a notch in order not to get too much flak. Maybe he can answer that?

Mostly lost confidence. I am trying to consider things more carefully now, and think/listen more and talk less. I have another ongoing game where the same thing happened - I saw some bad newb anti-town behavior and I led the lynch mob, and wham - this guy was newb town too. Newbie 380 if you'd like to check it out. I still have confidence in my ability to reason things out, but I am less confident in going out on a limb on my own now.

Now I gotta say, I find this very interesting. If you've read other games with me and know I usually do solid analysis, and you think I'm more likely to experiment with a scum role, then why did you wait so long to bring this up?

2 reasons - your suspicions on Day 1 aligned with mine, so I saw no real reason to suspect you. Also, the "experiments are more likely with scum alignment" theory didn't occur to me until Day 2, when I started thinking about your playstyle more. Since your analysis started, I find you extremely pro-town.

[~N9V~]

I still want ~N9v~ to answer my question

In his maiden game

he got emotional

in exactly the same way as NL and got lynched the same way as town. It is so strange to me that ~N9V~ sees behaviour he did produce himself earlier and didn't project the situation.

The paradox in your statement is that you suggest getting emotional is scummy but admit you voted 'on a vibe', and thus you say yourself that your vote is a scumtell.

For now: my vote stands.

Those are doifferent emotions. I mean ones where you say you give up on the game, and fuck you. THose emotions are not helpful at all.

Unvote

[Aimee]

N9V, why did you unvote Nabakov?

And I will have a more substantial comment later, but that is my opening question.

[Hjallti]

I still want ~N9v~ to answer my question

In his maiden game

he got emotional

in exactly the same way as NL and got lynched the same way as town. It is so strange to me that ~N9V~ sees behaviour he did produce himself earlier and didn't project the situation.

(...)

Those are doifferent emotions. I mean ones where you say you give up on the game, and fuck you. THose emotions are not helpful at all.

Unvote

No they were the same at the moment of your vote. Nekka gave up after you voted him, so your explanation is false, this either means you had a different reason to vote back then and can't explain right now or you looked back wrong today. Let's hope it is the second, but I'm bother I had to ask three times before you answered... well I have to ask a fourth time now.

Remark, I Pm'd Panzer for the votecount earlier but he probably didn't pick that up yet.

[bobbyplump]

N9V, you need to answer the question about why you chose to kill at all.

Again, this is a newb question. But how many bulletts does a Vig usually have?

[Aimee]

N9V, you need to answer the question about why you chose to kill at all.

Again, this is a newb question. But how many bulletts does a Vig usually have?

That depends, but as N9V hasn't specified his 'Vig type' (e.g. one shot), we should assume he can kill one person each night.

[Stewie]

2. Stewie

Interest to hunt scum seems pretty low. Most of his posts are comments on token bits of analysis/theory, or questions for players to clarify certain statements. The only real commitment he made so far was to his vote on N-L.

What I find interesting is the fact that while he made (what I consider to be) the original case against N-L, and confirmed

once

that N-L is his preferred play, he never actively pushed for the lynch. I get a sense of apathy from his posts during this time, which indicates to me that he may have been laying low after having gotten the ball rolling, leaving the grunt work to others.

This changed somewhat once N-L came close to being lynched:

A claim as in saying what your role is. I know you are new, so I'll tell you this: it is in your best interest at the moment to tell us what your role is in your own words. Do not quote the mod PM.

How about you try to defend yourself?

You never really tried...

Curiously, the feeling I'm getting from these posts is that he's talking to a townie, and knows it. At the very least, they don't sound like words coming from a man who's ready to lynch the person he's talking to.

As for D2, I don't see any real scum-hunting efforts from him at all until he joined the ~N9V~ action.

Here's a couple of questions for you, Stewie:
Apart from ~N9V~, who do you think is scum? Who do you think is town? You've been a shadow so far (which is somewhat of a contrast to Mini 380, the last game we played together).

Right now, I can't really say that apart from N9V I'm convinced anyone else is scum, but I'm getting scummy vibes from Off the Mark Pickemgenius (however not his replacee) and bobbyplump.

As for me making the case against NL and then not posting much, it's true, but I was simply waiting for a direct response to my post, which I never got. I probably waited too long, but I believed that he would eventually answer them. I was wrong.

[Off the Mark]

Also, I said I was suspicious of Stewie a while back, but I never laid out my case against him - it is somewhat similar to CTD's:

Although I was the most vocal about Nekka's scumminess, I wavered a lot about whether or not he was actually scum or just acting scummy. Stewie never wavered. Whenever the bandwagon started to go off the rails, Stewie was there to subtly nudge it in the right direction. Now this could be possible for a misguided townie to do, as well, but since he never expressed doubt about N-L, (as far as I remember, anyway) it makes me think he knew the truth already.

Posts where Stewie exhibits this behavior:

79:

Can you be more specific? His post was composed of three reasons. Which part is reasoning which makes him seem

more like scum than nekka

, and what's the "rest of the post" which you agree with?

146:

Seriously though, I think it's more likely for NL to be scum than Hjallti. I do think that there was an overreaction regarding the single vote on him. However, NL voted for several people already (I think it's 7 right now; I lost count) and I think the vote-hopping warrants some attention. As well as other things I and others mentioned. Hjallti may also be scum, but I think NL is scummier, and we can only lynch one person a day.

169:

When he said that, I was going to make a "blood stains with your DNA on the murder weapon" joke, but I realized that there's no dead body yet so that wouldn't have been so funny.

Nabakov: let NL defend himself, please.

185:

A claim as in saying what your role is. I know you are new, so I'll tell you this: it is in your best interest at the moment to tell us what your role is in your own words. Do not quote the mod PM.

Off the Mark: don't say stuff like that... it's his first game, so bad play is to be expected. I think it was bad scum play, but even if it's bad town play that comment seems out of line to me. He'll learn, in time.

224:

How about you try to defend yourself?

244:

You never really tried...

248:

I only gave up once and

I was scum

. I was a newbie, and I was 14.

Very interesting that he would bring that up.

I realize that these posts do not mean that Stewie is definitely scum. It is simply my evidence that Stewie subtly kept Nekka's bandwagon headed towards a lynch on Day1 and did not express any doubt in his scumminess.

[bobbyplump]

The question I am asking myself is is it worth possibly killing a Vig in order to possibly kill a serial killer.

As the group said before, it's in the town's best interest to kill mafia first, then go after the SK. So, if that's the case, shouldn't we give N9V a pass today?

The mafia will likely go after him tonight anyway, right? So how about we kill us some scum.

[NabakovNabakov]

^^ Yes, the risk of lynching our vig certainly exists if we decide to lynch NV, but judging by the quality of his claim and his play under pressure, I would say that risk is fairly small. At first I thought he was just a mafioso, but now that I've read CTD's analysis, I'm fairly convinced he's our SK. My vote stays where it is until he can make a post slightly more convincing than "fuck you." (of course, if a more certain opportunity to lynch scum were to arise, I'd be sure to take that as well)

[Off the Mark]

As the group said before, it's in the town's best interest to kill mafia first, then go after the SK. So, if that's the case, shouldn't we give N9V a pass today?

This is a pretty good idea. We could leave him alive and see if/who he kills. That would give us more info for sure. If we lynch wrong though, and he kills town, and mafia kills town - yikes, we are not going to recover from that. So it would be quite risky.

I think pickem and Stewie are very likely scum. I am more suspicious of pickem right now, I think.

If we DO leave N9V alive, the town should direct his kill. (kill X, if you don't we will lynch you) Of course, scum will be able to comment on that too, but that gives us even more info.

[Stewie]

Also, I said I was suspicious of Stewie a while back, but I never laid out my case against him - it is somewhat similar to CTD's:

Although I was the most vocal about Nekka's scumminess, I wavered a lot about whether or not he was actually scum or just acting scummy. Stewie never wavered. Whenever the bandwagon started to go off the rails, Stewie was there to subtly nudge it in the right direction. Now this could be possible for a misguided townie to do, as well, but since he never expressed doubt about N-L, (as far as I remember, anyway) it makes me think he knew the truth already.

Posts where Stewie exhibits this behavior:

snip

I realize that these posts do not mean that Stewie is definitely scum. It is simply my evidence that Stewie subtly kept Nekka's bandwagon headed towards a lynch on Day1 and did not express any doubt in his scumminess.

If someone is acting scummy, the first thing I think is that they are scum. I voted for him because I thought he was scum (or at least that he could be scum) and he said nothing to change my mind. What you call me trying to nudge the bandwagon in the right direction was actually me trying to get NL to defend himself. I never expressed doubt because I never really thought he was

town

; he certainly wasn't acting like it.

You also quoted a bunch of my posts, but didn't really say why any of them is scummy, so I can't really defend myself against that... therefore, I won't.

This is a pretty good idea. We could leave him alive and see if/who he kills. That would give us more info for sure. If we lynch wrong though, and he kills town, and mafia kills town - yikes, we are not going to recover from that. So it would be quite risky.

No, it's a terrible idea, unless you actually don't think N9V is the SK. You even said it yourself, later in the same paragraph, it's a risky move. Better play it safe and lynch someone we are pretty sure is scum rather than leave them aside for later to go after something that's not that certain.

[Off the Mark]

I meant "good idea" as in "something good to think about" - not sure if the risks outweigh the benefits yet. Since YOU seem to think it is a terrible idea though, it makes me think we should do it.

From a scum perspective, of

course

it's a terrible idea. This doesn't necessarily mean it is the best move for the town though. We need others to weigh in.

[Off the Mark]

Considering more... I don't think we can afford another mislynch. If we've got a good lead on the SK, then I think we need to follow it rather than lynch an innocent. Unless we are quite confident of another player's scumminess (pickem?) then we should take this opportunity to lynch a bad guy.

[Stewie]

I meant "good idea" as in "something good to think about" - not sure if the risks outweigh the benefits yet. Since YOU seem to think it is a terrible idea though, it makes me think we should do it.

From a scum perspective, of

course

it's a terrible idea. This doesn't necessarily mean it is the best move for the town though. We need others to weigh in.

I knew you'd say something like that, that's why I said that even you seem to think it's a risky move. If, of course, we get another player which we are reasonably sure is scum, then we can leave n9v for tomorrow, but right now n9v is the right choice. Since CTD already posted what he wanted to post, I will re

vote: N9V

[pickemgenius]

CTD analysis

-good

HJ asks some questions

Set-up somewhat discussed.

HJ asks more questions.

Don't like post 378

N-N posts suspicions on that post.

Stewie unvotes

~N9V~ says

If you don't like answers, then don't ask questions.

- ewww.

Stewie doesn't like that, FOS, could be vote on ~N9V~

~N9V~ vote reeks of OMGUS. also

A) It wasn't a gut feeling. I thought he was scum.

-that quote rubs me the wrong way.

Stewie reapplies vote on ~N9V~

OTM doesn't like vote on N-N

N-N votes ~N9V~ explains himself very well.

~N9V~ claims vig.

- ?????

CTD next posts says he is the lynch for today, asks why he said

Shit, looks like mafia and SK. Vote A Papaya You seem over sincere about the lose.

- I agree with this.

Stewie agrees ~N9V~ is the lynch for today thinks he is the sk claiming vig.

- I again think this is good, if we get rid of one anti-town killing party, then it's alot better.

BP asks if ~N9V~ considered killing anyone else, unvotes CTD.

~N9V~ says it was OTM or Lowell, says to CTD [quote="~N9V~] because if i said it was undoubtly a vig, then I would be the play for the night, because the scum would catch on.[/quote]

- if you were the SK undoubtedly I would think it would be stupid for mafia not to kill you that night.

OTM's post 395 is good, asks ~N9V~ questions

So you are saying that you are the vig, but you deliberately tried to mislead the town into thinking it was mafia + SK? (referring to the statement CTD quoted) That seems crazy. Please explain why you would do that.

-word.

~N9V~ says pretty much, and he already explained it.

-no

OTM says that doesn't explain it.

Stewie asks ~N9V~ why he chose to kill N1, agrees with OTM.

-still no answer on that question.

CTD analysis on 4 players, says he is 99% ~N9V~ is the sk.

Hj wants answers.

CTD says Day 1 was a playstlye experiment.

- I understand completely.

OTM answers CTD questions.

~N9V~ responds to Hj

Hj says his explanation is false basically.

bp says ~N9V~ needs to answer why he chose to kill at all.

- still.....

Stewie responds to CTD analysis.

OTM builds a case against Stewie

bp wonders

is it worth possibly killing a Vig in order to possibly kill a serial killer.

also says we should give ~N9v~ a pass today. Says mafia will go after him tonight anyway.

-no, if we are sure that we can get rid of one anti-town party, then we need to take advantage of it.

N-N says it isn't likely he is the/a vig.

OTM somewhat agrees with bp, says if we leave ~N9V~ alive the town should direct his kill.

Stewie says idea is bad.

OTM explains, says we can't affor another mislynch (obv.) says if we have a good lead on the SK, we should for sure go through with that.

-yes

Stewie revotes ~N9V~.

- now at L-1.

I think just a bit more is needed before his lynch, he is for sure the play for today IMO, unless I see something wickedly protown(and soon) then I will hammer him.


The - are me talking, ask if anything is unclear, or if you have any direct questions you want me to answer, then feel free to ask, and I'll answer them.

[Hjallti]

I'm convinced ~N9V~ is the SK. This leaves us with a probably opening of
9 town 2 maf 1SK (might be 8-3-1)
which was reduced D1N1
6 town 2maf 1SK
Killing the SK would us give then (after Nightkill)
5 town 2maf (thus something like a C9-configuration (although roles may vary more))

Let's assume 90% probability of the first and 60% of the second assumption, we have more tan a coin flip that we get a C9 situation with 17 pages info. Looks interesting.
Now the question I want to ask everyone before the hammer falls is double.
Is my representation likely?
If so Is the alternative if we could lynch scum (5-1-1 or 4-2-1 after Night 2) better?

Just preventing the hammer for now:

unvote: ~N9V~

[Off the Mark]

I'm convinced ~N9V~ is the SK. This leaves us with a probably opening of
9 town 2 maf 1SK (might be 8-3-1)
which was reduced D1N1
6 town 2maf 1SK
Killing the SK would us give then (after Nightkill)
5 town 2maf (thus something like a C9-configuration (although roles may vary more))

I think is very likely the setup, although like you said, we may have more roles than a typical C9 setup.

[~N9V~]

Of course OTM, if you guys want me to kill someone, then let me know. If you want me to stay in the dark tonight, again, let me know. Also, I'm a kill a night vig, not just one-shot.

And Aimee, because I want to stay Unvoted as I'm away today, tommorow, and the day after.

[Off the Mark]

From a scum perspective, of

course

it's a terrible idea. This doesn't necessarily mean it is the best move for the town though. We need others to weigh in.

I knew you'd say something like that, that's why I said that even you seem to think it's a risky move.

Whoah, this sounds like you are admitting to using a pro-scum argument.

[NabakovNabakov]

^^ OTM: This confuses the hell out of me. I'm usually pretty good with logical pretzels, but I'm having trouble with why this specifically incriminates him. (no problem with the other arguments though)

NV, I think that is a very poor explanation for why you unvoted me. I highly doubt/hope that I will not be lynched in the next three days, so your vote being on me without you to shepard it is not a concern. I think you were trying to reduce the amount of flak you were taking by removing a clearly OMGUS vote.

I really don't like the idea of leaving NV alive with assignments on who to kill. It seems like it would be incredibly easy for an SK to masqurade as a vig and keep the wool pulled over until it's too late.

IF

we were to do this, it would be absolutely essential that our cop investigates him to ensure he's really a vig, but that would leave the cop fully exposed. It seems like a lose-lose to me.