Micro 431 - Noughts and Crosses Mafia

[T-Bone]

Okay I kinda get what you're saying. What I'm saying is that we're damned if we do, damned if we don't, I think we're best served to focus on mafia more. Because you're kinda right, at a certain point we will be dictating who they kill and they will be dictating whom we lynch. On Day 1 though....this isn't true and we can play nearly normally.

I do agree, gotta lynch a corner, but we can make an informed decision. I feel like this discussion is all about beholding ourselves to tic tac toe, and we don't need to do that.

[Empking]

The joint-busiest vote count so far

T-Bone (1) - Mathdino
Mathdino (1) - Scripten
RedCoyote (1) - Kaboose

Note Voting:RedCoyote, Equinox, T-Bone, Pine, Belisarius, vettrock
Five votes to lynch.
(expired on 2014-12-25 09:48:12)

[Equinox]

Speaking of which, RedCoyote, Equinox, and Vettrock are all missing. I find this troubling, considering lurking scum did quite well in the last game of this setup. I know vettrock is a town lurker, but the other two I know nothing of.

This game started literally 6 hours ago.

I don't know about you Tic-Tac-Toe strategists, but I'm starting to think that we have a better chance at winning by lynching scum rather than picking squares, especially when Pine is in the center. To start, there are already some obvtown players, so scum will have to choose between someone actively thinking and posting in the game who is universally read as town and someone who isn't leading the thread nearly as much but is confirmed town. I don't know about you, but having an innocent child in LyLo as scum isn't the worst thing in the world.

Vote: RedCoyote

Semi-RVS vote on a fellow 6-hour lurker omg because there's a large swath of the player list I'm not very interested in lynching at the moment.

Preview edit: What T-Bone said more elegantly.

[Belisarius]

Actually, I'm a bit tempted to go there too, in order to preserve the players who have been talking sense; so far the only player talking bollocks (with the possible exception of myself, I'm no fit judge of that) is confTown.

[Pine]

Simple: We can't win by playing TTT; all TTT games played between players who know what they're doing end in a draw. We need to win by lynching the scum, same as we would in a conventional Mafia game. Lynching town is not a path to victory in a conventional Mafia game, therefore we're not taking the centre square.

^Town

While it isn't true that all TTT games end in a draw (There are a couple of opening moves leading to inevitable wins which most people don't see) it would be impossible to get three in a row with what I proposed. Any time we got two in a row, scum could block us easily, even if they had to kill one of their own to do it

I was waiting for someone to look at it critically enough to recognize that

Okay, we've got two Townies

[T-Bone]

You can block those 'inevitable wins' if you know what you're doing so...

[Pine]

You'd be surprised how many competent, intelligent adults don't see it coming

[Kaboose]

Simple: We can't win by playing TTT; all TTT games played between players who know what they're doing end in a draw. We need to win by lynching the scum, same as we would in a conventional Mafia game. Lynching town is not a path to victory in a conventional Mafia game, therefore we're not taking the centre square.

^Town

While it isn't true that all TTT games end in a draw (There are a couple of opening moves leading to inevitable wins which most people don't see) it would be impossible to get three in a row with what I proposed. Any time we got two in a row, scum could block us easily, even if they had to kill one of their own to do it

I was waiting for someone to look at it critically enough to recognize that

Okay, we've got two Townies

Confirmed town or not I don't like this attitude really. We need to play both. We need to scum hunt properly enough to put ourselves in as strong a board position as possible. There's going to come a point where we won't be able to just play a normal Mafia Game and will have to think about playing TTT as well.

I think our best play is to be the one forcing the mafia to block instead of them forcing us to block, that way we're deciding who they kill instead of them deciding who we kill.

[T-Bone]

I guess so? I dunno, I seriously wrote a 5-page research paper in college about how to play tic tac toe (yes, really), there isn't anything that would surprise me at the very least.

[RedCoyote]

VOTE: RedCoyote

Never seen a red coyote so until you prove you're real, vote goes on you.

Well, you've met one now.

---

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

I feel bad saying this but we should lynch a corner.

If mafia take the centre, as they undoubtedly will, we get much more control of the board taking a corner than taking a side.

If we don't end up with scum D1, consider the following (hypothetical):
1. We lynch the scummiest corner (let's say it's T-Bone).
2. Mafia kill Pine or they have an IC surviving to D2 making it easier to catch scum.
3. We lynch opposite corner, RedCoyote.
4. Mafia are forced to kill a corner, say they kill me. (there are now 5 players, this is banking on both scum not being on the sides)
5. We lynch Equinox. Scum kill Kaboose or Scripten.
6. We lynch the other and win.

The chances of this failing (due to both scum being on sides) is 6/28, or 3/14. Since I know I'm town, for me the chances are 6/21, or 3/7.

Combined with actual scumhunting, I like those odds.

This is an interesting idea, but I also have a crazy suggestion with how we can gain the upper hand in this game. We lynch Pine today.

Okay, everyone stopped laughing? Hear me out. If we do this, we retain control the entire game. The scumteam never force us into lynching anyone with their kills because we have the center square. Every lynch we do will effectively control the scumkill as well because otherwise they lose. For instance, say we lynch Pine and scum kill me. We can lynch anyone except T-Bone and force the scum's hand. If we then lynch, say, vettrock, then the scum have to kill Kaboose. If Kaboose isn't killed, he's confirmed scum. If Kaboose is killed, this doesn't help the scum get any closer to winning on the board. Then we can lynch, say, Mathdino, and the same thing applies to Equinox.

Lynching the center square is like giving us two free investigations, I think. Granted, we have to sacrifice our IC to get it, but if we don't lynch Pine today, the scum will kill him tonight and we'll be stuck chasing the scum around the board.

The issue is, in order to autowin, they'd have been forced to lynch the centre, which is probably something people got cold feet about.

Yeah, see, I don't get cold feet about this. Mafia, in a lot of ways, is about controlling your opponent. Taking the center square seems like the obvious move, even if Pine is confirmed, because he'll die otherwise.

I think we learn more about whom the scum knocks off than we learn about them killing Pine.

---

This forces us to lynch someone which means mafia control our D3 lynch assuming they're still alive. So your plan gives mafia the ability to take control of the board on N2. From here they would have it completely mapped out and we wouldn't be able to lynch who we think is scum and would be lynching simply to avoid losing the other way.

This is why I don't think the corner strategy is the best bet. I don't like ceding control of the game to the scumkill. Not having the center square puts us on defense the entire game. We can't really scumhunt after D2 because our choices are picked for us.

---

Yeah, that's not happening; this is still a game of Mafia and we're not knowingly lynching Town unless there's no choice.

Is sacrificing D1 for the sake of having the rest of the game to scum hunt preferable to getting to scumhunt on D1/2 but not being able to scumhunt after that?

I always have the long game in mind. I think playing for the right now can be dangerous and naive because it's not guaranteed that we're going to hit scum in the first two days, Belisarius, no matter how confident you think you/we are.

---

I've been racking my brains for the best lynch here... And it seems either way we end up in a spot where we'll be lynching more to block.

We need to force scum to block us instead of the other way around. That way it's up to use who is living and who is dying.

Assuming they NK the IC N1 whatever square we lynch, we have to take one right next to it. That will force the mafia to block us. Taking the NK out of their hands and in to ours. So we aren't voting to lynch one person, we're voting to lynch two on D2.

You guys are making it way too complicated. I like you and Math for town right now, but y'all are putting way too much thought into this. We only have one question today, do we take control of the board or do we cede it to the scumteam? If you choose the former, you're playing for the long game. If you choose the latter, you're betting that the town can hit scum in the first two days. Either one is risky, but I think the latter is more risky.

---

Simple: We can't win by playing TTT; all TTT games played between players who know what they're doing end in a draw.

You can't not play TTT. If you don't play TTT then the scumteam will simply connect three in a row while you're scumhunting. You have to play TTT on the first move (take center) and then you are free to scumhunt the rest of the game.

---

This game started literally 6 hours ago.

Thank you.

VOTE: Pine

I'll let y'all try to talk me out of this, but this is the most intelligent move as I see it. Taking control of the game > "playing Mafia". I concede D1 willingly because it's hard to hit scum on D1/2. I think town generally has more success later in the game.

[Belisarius]

Okay, everyone stopped laughing? Hear me out. If we do this, we retain control the entire game. The scumteam never force us into lynching anyone with their kills because we have the center square. Every lynch we do will effectively control the scumkill as well because otherwise they lose. For instance, say we lynch Pine and scum kill me. We can lynch anyone except T-Bone and force the scum's hand. If we then lynch, say, vettrock, then the scum have to kill Kaboose. If Kaboose isn't killed, he's confirmed scum. If Kaboose is killed, this doesn't help the scum get any closer to winning on the board. Then we can lynch, say, Mathdino, and the same thing applies to Equinox.

Lynching the center square is like giving us two free investigations, I think. Granted, we have to sacrifice our IC to get it, but if we don't lynch Pine today, the scum will kill him tonight and we'll be stuck chasing the scum around the board.

I'll admit, I hadn't considered the investigative implications.

The problem is, if scum are any of the corner pieces, they can NK the opposite corner to make their cornerscum untouchable D2, and then we have an unacceptably high probability of winding up in in a 5p lylo in which the interactions needed to catch scum haven't occurred because we've been playing TTT instead of Mafia. For the nonce, I'm still thinking taking a corner is our best move, but I'll keep an open mind.

[Equinox]

Okay, everyone stopped laughing? Hear me out. If we do this, we retain control the entire game. The scumteam never force us into lynching anyone with their kills because we have the center square. Every lynch we do will effectively control the scumkill as well because otherwise they lose. For instance, say we lynch Pine and scum kill me. We can lynch anyone except T-Bone and force the scum's hand. If we then lynch, say, vettrock, then the scum have to kill Kaboose. If Kaboose isn't killed, he's confirmed scum. If Kaboose is killed, this doesn't help the scum get any closer to winning on the board. Then we can lynch, say, Mathdino, and the same thing applies to Equinox.

Lynching the center square is like giving us two free investigations, I think. Granted, we have to sacrifice our IC to get it, but if we don't lynch Pine today, the scum will kill him tonight and we'll be stuck chasing the scum around the board.

[...]

I always have the long game in mind. I think playing for the right now can be dangerous and naive because it's not guaranteed that we're going to hit scum in the first two days, Belisarius, no matter how confident you think you/we are.

I will argue the opposite. It's true that it's necessary to have the long game in mind, especially with something like this where there are two win conditions in play, but there's also the danger of completely losing the advantages of playing the short game. Day 1 is arguably the best day to get reads because there is more spontaneity on the part of everyone. The evidence of that is already apparent in this thread. We lose that the second we decide to lynch the center square and move to Night. While I like the idea of having those free investigations, doing that at the cost of the interactions from Today does not make a fair trade.

Hypothetically speaking, if Pine became a non-presence in the thread and/or misread the scum while Mathdino-town continued to stomp all over the thread and eat scum like grass, would center square be worth the risk of Mathdino lynching one of them (or even the other of them) the following Day?

Lynching Pine is not as obvious of an answer as you make it to be.

[Pine]

Hey, guy. I was reaction testing when I suggested we lynch me. Taking the center square first is the sucker's route. It can't lead to anything but a tie. The only way to actually win is to do something else

An example

We put an O in the center, scum takes a corner X, then any space we go in leads us to endless countering
We put an O in the center, scum takes a side X, then any space we go in leads us to endless countering

Do the math. Lynching me is anti-Town from the Tic Tac Toe angle, in addition to the fact that it bypasses a shot at scum

Our best bet is to take a corner, that gives us options. I think it should be RedCoyote. This is just the reaction I was resting for.the opportunity to lynch an Innocdnt Child who's willing to go is just too much a temptation

Vote RedCoyote

[Scripten]

Our best bet is to take a corner, that gives us options. I think it should be RedCoyote. This is just the reaction I was resting for.the opportunity to lynch an Innocdnt Child who's willing to go is just too much a temptation

Vote RedCoyote

I was legitimately hoping this was what you were doing. I'm okay with this.

UNVOTE: Mathdino
VOTE: RedCoyote

This is L-1.

[Pine]

Unvote

Too soon for L-1

[Pine]

And ugh, the typos in that quote. Autocorrect is supposed to fix that shit

[RedCoyote]

The problem is, if scum are any of the corner pieces, they can NK the opposite corner to make their cornerscum untouchable D2, and then we have an unacceptably high probability of winding up in in a 5p lylo in which the interactions needed to catch scum haven't occurred because we've been playing TTT instead of Mafia. For the nonce, I'm still thinking taking a corner is our best move, but I'll keep an open mind.

Oh, good point. That's a 25% chance of happening, but it's still a significant chance. Like you say though, that's if we let ourselves play TTT. We don't have to play TTT except for today. Once you get the center square, you don't have to play TTT any longer. The scum cannot setup a line without two consecutive nights. I think there's more value in that, you know what I mean? I mean, I'm not a number cruncher, but there's value in forcing the scum to have to focus on one specific group of three rather than letting them case us constantly. Like, if the scum want to pull a gambit, they

must

commit to two NKs that are together.

---

there's also the danger of completely losing the advantages of playing the short game. Day 1 is arguably the best day to get reads because there is more spontaneity on the part of everyone.

Eh, maybe we just disagree on a political level. See, I don't think there's as much value in this "spontaneity" as you do. Scum aren't forced to act in D1. Scum can do whatever. Even if we lynch scum, the other one could very well ride the wagon. Whereas if we concede the day and take control of the board, the scum has less room to maneuver later. We force the scumkills to be on certain people (and if they aren't, we know something's up). Additionally, it's quite possible for a scenario where, like, we lynch Pine today, scum kills you tomorrow, we lynch, say, scum vettrock tomorrow, and scum Kaboose is stuck. He can't kill himself. He has to kill someone random and we get the win. Granted that the odds are low that the scum are arranged across from one another, but still. We're considering everything here.

The fact of the matter is, we don't know if the scum are across from each other or next to each other. That's why the center square is our ace-in-the-hole. We take the high ground in either situation.

Hypothetically speaking, if Pine became a non-presence in the thread and/or misread the scum while Mathdino-town continued to stomp all over the thread and eat scum like grass, would center square be worth the risk of Mathdino lynching one of them (or even the other of them) the following Day?

You have to dumb this down for me, hon. I'm not following what you're saying here. You're arguing that the scum might not kill Pine if he's leading the town in the wrong direction?

---

We put an O in the center, scum takes a corner X, then any space we go in leads us to endless countering
We put an O in the center, scum takes a side X, then any space we go in leads us to endless countering

Do the math. Lynching me is anti-Town from the Tic Tac Toe angle, in addition to the fact that it bypasses a shot at scum

We're not playing TTT, Pine. We're controlling the board so that the scum can't force our hand. I'm not advocating lynching you so that we win the board... just so that our lynches aren't dictated by scum. I thought I made that clear.

[Pine]

I'm aware of the justification you made. I disagree - there's no point in forfeiting a lynch that may hit scum when there is no tactical gain to it.

[RedCoyote]

No tactical gain? I just explained how it effectively nets us two investigations in addition to the fact that it completely undercuts the scumteam's ability to control our lynch for the remainder of the game through TTT. That is what I am interested in. You guys are all looking at D1 and D2 and banking that we can hit a scum in those two days. I appreciate the enthusiasm, but I'm also interested in what's in the best interest of the town in the long term. After today. In case we don't hit scum... it's freaking hard to hit scum with no flips, Pine, unless you have someone that really fumbles the ball (I have an inkling about one player, but I'm not nearly confident enough about it to act on it right now).

[RedCoyote]

I want to press this. You're saying let's take a 1/8 shot over controlling the entire game. I don't think that's a reasonable trade-off. I mean, I'm willing to debate this further, but it's not even close to me right now.

It's like saying choose between a one-shot vig and a two-shot cop.

[vettrock]

Wow, I log on and the game is already three pages long.

I agree we have to both play tic-tac-toe, and scum hunt. I do think we should start with which ever of the corners seems scummiest. We have to assume Pine will be NK on N1 for them to take the center, from there we scum hunt amoung, the two sides next to the corner that we lynched, and the corners that would make three. That way we force the NK of the scum, and we have 4 out of 7 to choose from. If the square to complete the three is scum, either scum will have to NK one of their own, or we just lynch for the win the next day. If scum NKs to block, we go the other way.

I think until as least one scum is dead, the TTT game needs to drive the lynches at least partially. Once we have one scum flip, we can lynch anyone as getting the scum will win the game.

I disagree with NK Pine. The center while it does give some advantage, it is not worth losing a conftown, and letting scum NK another town.

[Pine]

You have a reasonable point concerning scum directing who we lynch, but the two investigations nonsense is total bunk

Besides, by lynching a corner, WE take control

---
---
--O

---
-X-
--O

If scum take the center square Night One, then THEY will be forced to follow US

Your argument is invalid, and I am quite happy to make the corner we take yours

[Belisarius]

I just explained how it effectively nets us two investigations

If and only if we happen to lynch opposite scum. There's no equivalent of a cop inno in your scenario, just a

potential

to get the equivalent of a cop guilty in a very specific circumstance which may never arise.

[Pine]

Exactly

[vettrock]

Noughts and Crosses Mafia

T-Bone	Belisarius	Mathdino
Kaboose	Pine	vettrock
Equinox	Scripten	RedCoyote

To explain why we should take a corner:
Assum we lynch T-bone. Scum NK's Pine. Now our options for lynch the next day are Belisarius, Mathdino, Kaboose, and Equinox. All of those will give us two in a row, forcing scum to NK to block us. So if we lynch Mathdino, scum has to NK Belisarius, or we win. If either Mathdino or Belisarius is scum, we gain a dead scum.

If we lynch a side, again assuming scum NK's Pine. For example, Kaboose. Now we have to lynch T-bone or Equinox in order to get two in a row, and scum has to NK the other one to block us. Then Scum will have two in a row which will drive out lynches from that point on in order to prevent scum from getting three in a row. Scum has control and can drive the lynches away from whatever squares they are in. Since we have to lynch both of them, they just have to set it up by who they NK such that we can't lynch them without failing to block them getting three in a row.