Mini 458 - Game over!

[HungryJoe]

In other words:

You can never be sure of certain arguments because if you think that, then the other side could be thinking you would think that, or you could be thinking that they would be thinking you would think that, or they could be thinking that you would be thinking that they were thinking that you were thinking that, so on, etc.

I wanted to use ad infinitum, but Numen already used it. Damn, but that's a cool way to end a sentence, dontcha think?

[Adel]

...I'm not sure exactly how much I'll be able to post. Don't vote me out while I'm gone! haha

You are so asking for it right now.

This game isn't making a lot of sense to me, we seem to be letting dylan off the hook and I feel ok with that..

How does MoS have three votes? NabakovNabakov was right to point out his absence, but those votes predate that.

Starting a wagon on Kate doesn't appeal to me after J-man and dylan41985, I think it could just be another wagon on a weaker player. If accept the appearance of incompetence as a defense for two players, I may as well accept it for a third.


Numenorean7 and curiouskarmadog seem pretty similar, good onservations and strong posting. I was having trouble telling their posts apart, until I read:

But you are a replacement like me, so I doubt you are mafia.

This is the only line that stands out to me. I didn't believe that for a second. It is a horrible reason for thinking that someone isn't scummy. Care to explain?

Hungry Joe: care to vote for someone?

ThAdmiral: who do you think is the scummiest replacement? They are all appearing quite protown, are you as skeptical as I am? Who do you think we should be pressuring, since dylan is going to be offline?

[curiouskarmadog]

But you are a replacement like me, so I doubt you are mafia.

This is the only line that stands out to me. I didn't believe that for a second. It is a horrible reason for thinking that someone isn't scummy. Care to explain?

Yeah sure no problem. Keep in mind this is only my theory. I think for the most part replacements are vanilla townies. I think if some research was done on replaced people it would be discovered that 99.99% of them were townies. Here is why. People on this board play multiple games at once. It can get every confusing. What would you rather spend your time with? A game where you had no power, or a game that you had the power (like mafia)? Granted there are exceptions: vacations, illness, etc etc, but for the most part, those “characters” needing replacements would rather play other games and are not very interested in games that they have no power, that is why they “lurk” or quit all together. So in general (again there are always exceptions) I don’t look to the replaced characters first.

Starting a wagon on Kate doesn't appeal to me after J-man and dylan41985, I think it could just be another wagon on a weaker player.

I am not so sure we

should

let J-man off the rope. In my opinion Kate and J-man are together.

[curiouskarmadog]

This was number 122, and wasn't about j-man. Any posts about claiming and stuff are about how i don't like the whole claiming idea, not about making any specific person to claim, just forcing to claim in general.

Right, you are discussing logic, however at the same time you are defending j-man. You dont want to vote him out or you dont want him to claim. Yet you never ask J-man questions about his possible guilt. You just assume he is innocent, or you just do not care. Actually you dont really ask anyone questions, is that because you already know the answers?..Like who is mafia?

[ThAdmiral]

ThAdmiral: who do you think is the scummiest replacement? They are all appearing quite protown, are you as skeptical as I am? Who do you think we should be pressuring, since dylan is going to be offline?

Scummiest replacement: probably ckd. I also thought the line...

But you are a replacement like me, so I doubt you are mafia.

rubbed me the wrong way, as it seemed to be trying to not-so-subtly imply he was town as well. Something I don't think real towns do. His explanation is acceptable, but I still feel iffy on that line.

Honestly I don't want to change my vote though. I don't want to no-lynch, and at this rate it seems we will. Even though the general rule is that the longer the day the better for the town, there has to be some sort of limit, right?
Furthermore with j-man I felt his 'defence' truly smacked of the disillusionment of a newbie-town. Dylan, however has flatly refused to defend himself, and then goes on to say: "oh I'm off, so you can't really lynch me" in a rather smug way.
He's the best play in my eyes.

[Adel]

Honestly I don't want to change my vote though. I don't want to no-lynch, and at this rate it seems we will. Even though the general rule is that the longer the day the better for the town, there has to be some sort of limit, right?

Too long of a day will flush every power roleYou know a game has gone on too long when two players have claimed a power role, and neither of them are scum... of course you won't know that neither of them are scum until much later, when the Mafia(s?) is(are?) probably in a winning position.

Have a good weekend everyone, I'll talk to you on Monday

[Mastermind of Sin]

Adel, please revert to your original configuration, where they are in a circle, that is much easier to understand and keep track of. For one, all the lines are straight, and your eyes aren't dodging around trying to find people. It's easy to trace everything and make sense of it. Your other graphics just make my eyes glaze over. Otherwise, I feel that can be very helpful.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ok MoS, so your defense is essentially that you were just doing a very good job of putting pressure on J-Man so you could get and be convinced by a role claim, and it worked. In case anybody doesn't remember, here's his claim:

now i was really tempted to claim cop/doc just to make you guys squirm because i know that since i am a vannilla townie i really dont have a whole lot of use to you guys, i mean kill me if you will althought esspeccially this early in day 1 its not a good idea (and yes nomatter how many pages we have turned there really isnt any info that has been gleaned)

my eyes are on dylan pickem, and the admiral and i think i shall FOS:MoS
from left to right is where my suspisions lie, i shall clarify and defend myself at a later date bit of a time crunch for now

No. It was not his roleclaim that convinced me. It was his actions. The post right before I declared him protown is the one that convinced me he was protown, not his claim.

Two things:
1) There seems to be a general consensus (which I agree with) that J-Man's claim is less than credible.
2) Two posts later, you still seem less than convinced:

It is helpful for someone to claim before they are lynched. At this point, I intend to lynch J-man, and his most recent posts have only convinced me further. Since he was only 2 votes away from lynch, I wanted him to claim. If he claim was believable, then we can leave him alive. It is better that we not lynch someone whose claim we believe is protown and make the scum have to kill them, rather than do the scum's work for them. I am not claiming that people should claim without pressure. That is not helpful. However, it is extremely unhelpful for the town for someone to refuse to claim when they are about to be lynched.

After his initial claim, J-Man continued to post jumbled messes (no offense meant) in his defense, certainly not anything that could conclusively clear him. The action that eventually sparked your proclamation and unvote was his threat to vote for himself. (Not a scum-tell or a town-tell, but just a tell for apathy and frustration in general)

He threatened to vote himself? I didn't even see that...at least I don't remember seeing it. It didn't influence my actions in any way. In addition, if I was scum, why would I not just sit on his wagon and be quiet like everyone else and let him hammer himself? No one was going to come after me for letting him kill himself, since they were all on the wagon as well...if you want to find scum on the J-man wagon, look to the people that hopped on without much contribution, and who haven't been making many statements about alignments. Scum are generally not willing to commit to declaring a person definitely scum or town, because that puts them in a position they can't back out of.

It may seem odd that I'm basically accusing J-Man of being scummy, but saying MoS is scummy for driving his wagon. At the time of MoS's proclamation, J-Man appeared very scummy, so it makes even less sense that MoS would clear him so quickly. It's unlikely that he came to the conclusion that J-Man was town through his posting, and the only other explanation is that MoS is part of the informed minority a.k.a. scum. When MoS revealed to us information that he had no right to have, he proved himself to be scum.

And MoS, if you

can

explain definitely why J-Man is town from his posts, I would be happy to pay attention. As a relative newbie, there may be some essential element I'm completely missing here. In that case, I'm sorry.

Are you a lawyer, NabNab? If I didn't know better, I would've almost voted myself after such an excellent display of reasoning. Unfortunately, before you try to present a case to the jury to convince them that a person's actions were done maliciously, it is imperative to acquaint yourself with the accused first, finding out their mannerisms and quirks.

Anyways, I have to admit you do have a valid theory. The only thing I have to point out, WIFOM as it is, is that a person such as myself would know that claiming someone is innocent without any sort of indication that they are is a scumtell, so I wouldn't do it as scum. Now, this doesn't prove me innocent, but it DOES mean that you can't use that argument AGAINST me, because what I said could very well be true, even if it is WIFOM.

[Mastermind of Sin]

well i can see that you guys are quite intent on killing me and ive spent a hour and a bit reading the posts over and trying to figure out a airtight argument that i could use in my defence, mabye its because of inexpierence that i cant find one but in any case im pretty sure that my defence is already stated and if there is another out there that thinks i am mafia... well then i cant do a whole lot to stop you. the defence behind the hinting about a power role is this, i was hoping that you guys would move on with out moving to the point that if i was i would have to claim.

This statement is RARE to see coming from scum. It would take a very sly scum to admit that there is nothing they can defend themselves with. Most scum in his position would bluster and attack others, trying to get attention off themselves.

on a different note this game is being run quite effeciently by 2 people adel and MoS imo they can effectively control and direct the discussion which if either of then are mafia (speccially adel) then town has already lost pressure needs to be applied to them but i can/t see that happening as they are both coming to the conclusion that each other are townie

He makes a very astute observation, having the guts to put some pressure on the two most prominent players in the game, who no one has tried to stand up to so far. Were he scum, I think he would attack some easier positions, going after other people on his wagon, perhaps.

finnaly i have this to say as my last line of defence i am Vanilla, not mafia; killing me on day 1 with this amount of info that you have is a bad idea you will go into day2 with very much the same amount of info and adel and MoS pushing for the first townie that makes an error in common speech, if it means anything in quite convinced that there are no power roles.

Saying he is vanilla can be argued either way, but my gut feeling in this case is that it's a sign of his protownness. Another accurate observation, that killing him then would bring us into the next day without much info. Also, while I think he's wrong, I don't think that scum would make such an out-of-left-field guess as to the setup. He could've been attacked even more for making such a suggestion, so there was no advantage to be gained from making such a statement as scum.

That post alone contained some good contributions to the game, you just need to break down his posts and look at it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Also, note that J-man is not the only person I have confidently stated is protown so far this game, either. I believe Adel to be town, and I am very confident that pickem is scum.

[Numenorean7]

Hi, MoS. Welcome back. I'd like to hear your thoughts on curiouskarmadog and Kate.

[NabakovNabakov]

*sigh*

For a second there, MoS, I really though I had some scum nailed down, but your defense has convinced me to

Unvote

. A single occurance of odd/scummy behavior is not enough to support a lynch especially when it can be fairly rationally explained. Also I get pro-town reads off of most of your other posts. Ornate theories are fun to hold and espouse, but straight forward scumtells beat second guessing any day.

However, I'm still unsure as to why/how you found J-Man to be so conclusively town. 333 explains how he occasionally made contributions, but I don't see how it proves his innocence.

One more thing:

FoS: Dylan, J-Man

for hopping on my wagon of MoS without adding anything.

[Per]

Vote Count (#11)

dylan41985: 3 (ThAdmiral, Kate, molestargazer,)
Mastermind of Sin: 2 (J-man, dylan41985)
pickemgenius: 1 (Mastermind of Sin)
curiouskarmadog: 1 (Numeronean7)
Kate: 1 (curiouskarmadog)

Not voting: 4 (HungryJoe, pickemgenius, Adel, NabakovNabakov)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

It's great, 9 players have contributed in the last 24 hours.

[Kate]

Here's an example of a WIFOM situation:

Scum are trying to decide who to night-kill. There is one player (call him X) who was onto one of the scum (call him Y), and had been pushing for his lynch. The scum don't want Y lynched, so they decide to get rid of X.
"But wait," one of them says, "If we kill X, everyone will know that Y is one of us, and he'll be lynched."
"Ah, yes," another one says, "But this town is pretty tricky. They'll see that X died and think that Y is an innocent townie we're trying to frame. Killing X would be the ideal way to defend Y."

So now answer this question. If the scum kill X, would a townie see Y as more likely or less likely to be scum because of it? In the end, it gives no meaningful information about Y's alignment. Herein lies the WIFOM dilemma. A phenomenon leads to a conclusion, but this conclusion would have been foreseen, so the opposite must be true, and so on ad infinitum.

Understand?

Oh! WIFOM, I can clearly not choose the Wine In Front Of Me, why didn't you just say the Princess Bride? That would've made alot more sense.

I don't like how we're kinda letting J-man and dylan off the hook. J-man was almost gone, he posted a poor defense, but he's good. Dylan was almost gone, but he refused to even explain himself until we explained why we voted him (whick I believe was already mentioned before), and after that, he posted again, but still never explained himself.

[NabakovNabakov]

^^ Doesn't the Wiki mention Princess Bride. Go back and check it again, because I think somebody recently updated that article. They might have made it more confusing, but at least they added Vazini (no idea how to spell it).

[HungryJoe]

Alright, whatever, Dylan. So, you give us a 'lurking is ok, cuz I do it all the time!' speech, and then drop out of existence. Gee, how convenient. Bleh. You've been acting a little scummy, and then as soon as you get some pressure on you, you get in those whole big thing about how it's ok for just you to be lurky scum-like, and then do it even more.

Bah, I'm done with ya, that's what I say. >=\

You're either scum, or what seems to be purposefully bad town. In either case, we're either gaining by your death here, or at the very least, not losing anything valuable.

Vote : Dylan

[J-man]

One more thing:
FoS: Dylan, J-Man for hopping on my wagon of MoS without adding anything.

WTF? me hoping on YOUR wagon... read into your facts dude i voted for him like 10 pages ago >.<

[Kate]

Really, I just checked, J-man voted MoS on page 6, and was the only one voting him up 'till page 11, when NabNab voted him.

^^ Doesn't the Wiki mention Princess Bride. Go back and check it again, because I think somebody recently updated that article. They might have made it more confusing, but at least they added Vazini (no idea how to spell it).

Oh yeah it does, sorry, i must've missed that

[curiouskarmadog]

Really, I just checked, J-man voted MoS on page 6, and was the only one voting him up 'till page 11, when NabNab voted him.

defends AGAIN....

[Kate]

I'm not defending J-man, I'm accusing NabNab.

[curiouskarmadog]

I'm not defending J-man, I'm accusing NabNab.

do you honestly think we are gong to believe that you are not defending j-man in that post? Please do not make me break this down AGAIN for you. I think it is also pretty scummy that you keep defending him (sometmies indirectly, yes) but wont admit that you are.

[NabakovNabakov]

Oh, sorry 'bout that guys. I knew Dylan had piggybacked, and I vaguely remembered J-Man doing the same thing. Shoulda checked the thread before I went around making accusations.
(I don't have a lot of time to sift right now, but I think he makes a "yeah, I agree" post in there somewhere)

Oh, and Kate, I hope you're defending J-Man, because I would certainly be hurt if you were accusing me.

[Kate]

I'm very sorry NabNab, but i truley wasn't trying to defend j-man

do you honestly think we are gong to believe that you are not defending j-man in that post? Please do not make me break this down AGAIN for you. I think it is also pretty scummy that you keep defending him (sometmies indirectly, yes) but wont admit that you are.

yeah, it does look like i'm defending J-man, but that wasn't what i meant to do, if someone acuses someone, and they're wrong, its probably best to say they're wrong, it just so happens someone accused j-man, and i said they were wrong.

Right, you are discussing logic, however at the same time you are defending j-man. You dont want to vote him out or you dont want him to claim. Yet you never ask J-man questions about his possible guilt. You just assume he is innocent, or you just do not care. Actually you dont really ask anyone questions, is that because you already know the answers?..Like who is mafia?

well i'm not trying to defend j-man, someone else said this, it was meant for other threads right? my point is that you shouldn't force someone to claim on day one, you won't get a good answer, you'll always get vanilla townie. That has nothing to do with j-man, that was about having someone, actually anyone, claim. i don't want to vote him out, i would vote him, but then he was at -1, and i wasn't willing to lynch him, but i still didn't want anyone to claim so early in the game.What kind of questions should i ask? I don't really ask anyone questions in this game, its just not my play-style. I don't assume he's innocent, and i do care, i just don't want to lynch him.

[curiouskarmadog]

well i'm not trying to defend j-man, someone else said this, it was meant for other threads right? my point is that you shouldn't force someone to claim on day one, you won't get a good answer, you'll always get vanilla townie. That has nothing to do with j-man, that was about having someone, actually anyone, claim. i don't want to vote him out, i would vote him, but then he was at -1, and i wasn't willing to lynch him, but i still didn't want anyone to claim so early in the game.What kind of questions should i ask? I don't really ask anyone questions in this game, its just not my play-style. I don't assume he's innocent, and i do care, i just don't want to lynch him.

What? Finding out information for the town is not your play style? What kind of responsible townie are you? You dont ask questions in this game because you kow the answers? How as a town are we suppose to get one up on the mafia without asking them questions? If we dont ask questions or inspire conversation, then the town will no lynch or lynch improperly and the mafia can pick us off one by one...or maybe, you dont ask questions, because you do not want to draw attention to yourself? That indicates some sort of power role crippled with the fact she is acting quite anti-town (reasons previously stated in other posts) that spells S C U M.....

[Adel]

vote:curiouskarmadog

to stir the pot, and show that I am back.

Mos: thanks for the feedback on the graphic.