Mini 436 - Game over - Mafia wins with no casualties!

[TrustGossip]

I am trying to make time to do a full re-read but I literally do not have any time.

All I have to say right now is that I'm very uncomfortable with any drastic action at this point. I know everyone wants something to happen, because we're essentially penned in a box as we've lost powerful pro-town people and Day One discussion seems essentially useless.

We have to keep in mind that there are two among us that aren't even here, so I'm very hesitant to do much of anything until we get the full gamut of input that we need at this crucial point in the game.

Confirm: Not Voting

Mod edit
Votecount:
DeathSauce 4 (ryan, Miztef, VanDamien, Vollkan)
ryan 1 (DeathSauce)

Not voting 4: TopHat, Paradoxombie, Trustgossip, StallingChamp

With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

[DeathSauce]

Well then we are sunk. In my opinion you, vollkan, paradox and I were the only pro-town players left participating.

That still isn't enough to lynch scum, but at least we could have gotten close and maybe gotten one replacement player in the game.

[vollkan]

What do you mean "we are sunk"? Trust has chosen not to vote, with very good reasons.

The situation is pretty frustrating. There is a strong case against Death but, on the other hand, there are dangers in making any movements with an incomplete set of players. There has to be at least one scum in the "actives" (or an SK) but beyond that we really have no idea.

What happens now depends on Para. I think he is justified either way, since there is a strong basis for suspicion against Death but there is also the understandable hesitation given the lack of players.

[DeathSauce]

here is a strong basis for suspicion against Death

There is? I just see the three main suspects agreeing that I am guilty without providing any real evidence!

I had thought that the collaboration between ryan. Miztef, and Van Damien would have been obvious to a simpleton, but if it is necessary to save my skin I'll post a full analysis with quotes from posts.

Hell vollkan, you even pointed out one that I missed in post 560

[vollkan]

There is? I just see the three main suspects agreeing that I am guilty without providing any real evidence!

My evidence against you is independent of the statements of those three and I've expressed all of my reasons in my last few posts.

I had thought that the collaboration between ryan. Miztef, and Van Damien would have been obvious to a simpleton, but if it is necessary to save my skin I'll post a full analysis with quotes from posts.

Hell vollkan, you even pointed out one that I missed in post 560

It is obvious to me that they are "collaborating" (though that word carries a particular connotation), as I explored in 560. Hence, I am somewhat frustrated. For now, unless Para can come up with a damned good reason to lynch Death I would suggest not to vote.

Now, to deal with the issue of Miztef/Ryan/VD:
Death, if you are town then your theory is quite likely correct, unfortunately that also means that we are immobilized until replacements come in since the "active" town would consist of only four people: Death, Vollkan (me), Para and Trust.

Now, I have done a bit of a reread with the intent of finding things to support your suspicion. The point of this is to play Devil's Advocate with my suspicion of Death, so I realise that quite a lot of what is below contradicts my own opinion: This is pretty massive....

1) All 3 were on the HK wagon, with Miztef and Ryan as the last 2 votes.

2) With respect to the suspicion raised against me by VD in relation to me asking for feedbackto lynch HK, Ryan at [480]:

I think VD just misread

what was typed by Vollkan as the first time I read it I was thinking "what the heck" and than after I re-read it than it made sense. I'm with you Miztef, I'm having a hard time reading anyone here in Day 2

.

3)At [500] Mizef says he has no regrets about the HK lynch, says he has some suspicion on Trust, then refers to having minor suspicions of VD and Ryan. Expresses suspicion of Para. Concludes the people to "watch out for" are paradox/VanDamien/Truegossip. Interesting for Death that VD is in that trio.

4) Miztef at [509]:

Ok, it's time to push more info out of people. I think paradox or VD are a good start, so I'll flip a coin and..... Vote: Paradoxombie (because I got heads)

What if the coin went the other way? This post is quite interesting in the sense that para is chosen over VD on a seemingly innocuous basis.

5) [510] Ryan accuses Death of lurking, this starts a bit of a debate between them

6) [514], Ryan's massive post. In this, his overall opinion of Miztef and myself is pro-town, he is neutral to VD and SC and somewhat suspicious of Death, Para and Trust.

7) VD at [523]:

Explanation? Who ever said you get explanation with my new vote?

Paradoxombie and DeathSauce are scum; along with either vollkan or Trust, and I lean towards vollkan.

Miztef, ryan, TopHat, StallingChamp, and me are town, along with the one of Trust or vollkan who is not scum.

DeathSauce is gone for a few days, so he can wait. vote: Paradoxombie

Much of this has been confirmed to me by what people have said. More is obvious to me by posting patterns. That is all for now

I don't like this post. It is too blunt and lacking in explanation ("posting patterns"??). This supports Death's theory more than anything else so far. At [524] Miztef says VD is being "upfront" and odd given the sudden shift from me to Death/Para, but Miztef then labels Death/Para as "fine suspects". This is very interesting.

8) [526], Miztef says he finds VD the third likely scum but is more certain of Para/Death; could be an effort to advance his agenda and debunk somewhat the chances of him being scum with VD.

9) As referred to by me in [560], Miztef at [539]:

I believe this game needs more evidence overall. We should start bandwagoning/voting with intent to lynch people we find scummy and get some more information.I've already tried paradox, but he's seems to busy to defend himself at this time anyway. I'll try up to try deathsauce or VD next. If not them, then Ryan or Trust are fine with me as well.

I'll send out a unvote vote: DeathSauce first, as some people already agree with me that he is one of the scummier ones. (Vollkan, ryan, VD)

Some of the evidence against DeathSauce can be read in post 514 by ryan. I will try to further build the case.

Miztef bases his vote on the opinions of Ryan, VD and myself and wants to build Ryan's case. Interesting.

10) Ryan at [540]:

Vollkan:

I am leaning on VD being town with a definete townie being placed on Miztef

. The three right now I'm thinking are scum is Deathsauce, Paradoxombie and either TopHat or StallingChamp. I get a pro town vibe from you with your posts and since I know I'm town, I'm thinking that 3 of those 4 are the scum as it looks like the overall thought process is that we have 3 scum.

Ouch...VERY interesting.

From then on it is basically: Ryan accuses Death of lurking, VD says the consensus is moving to Death/Para and that he is "happy" with a lynch of Death/Para. Miztef at [574]:

It's a possibility but

blantly rushing into this is not the answer ryan. We should get more opinions from the town

on this subject.

You, for example, have been accused of being scum many times. If you are scum, it easily explains why the rest of the scum haven't jumped on the bandwagon. It could also be that the scum can't co-odinate the 3 votes needed in a fashion quick enough to win without one of use unvoting.

Lastly, The possibility of a vig or SK or other NKer would mean the scum doesn't auto win in that situation.

Please refrain from drawing conclusions so quickly in the future.

It looks like a pro-town call for hesitation, but Miztef refers to getting "more opinions from the town" extrinsic to himself and Ryan. This bit is all mere semantics, but the words suggest that he and Ryan are scum...

Miztef's "confirm vote" is also interesting, since it is totally unnecessary and meaningless except as an encouragement of the lynch.

*breathes* Okay now that all THAT is out of the way:
If Death is town, his theory is quite likely correct, in which case we are at a standstill until replacement town players arrive.
If Death is scum, well, his theory is obviously a complete fabrication to throw confusion into the ranks of a town where we are down two players.

Waiting is most likely the best option for now, since I really cannot work out what course of action to take in the absence of replacers.

[Miztef]

Well, I'll reveal it now, because it didn't seem to work.

That post where I put a confirm vote on deathsauce, had a teeny weeny unvote beside it. If a player had hammered deathsauce with little reasoning or whatnot, it would have failed, and most likely I would turn my attention to that player.

So, just to clarify, that confirm vote post was only a trap, I don't really think lynching deathsauce at this time is the right option, although I still have much suspicion for him.

[vollkan]

Hehe, I was waiting with baited breath to see what was going to happen with the unvote, though it ends up in you revealing it...

I discovered it when I was reading your post and I accidentally highlighted that bit with my mouse, then noticed it didn't look like a regular hyphen or an underscore so I copied it into the URL bar to see what character it was...needless to say I found out to my amusement.

You could have waited for Para, though, before you revealed it.

I'm not too sure about the ethics of something like that, though, even if it could have been a massive help to us. By the looks of the vote-count even the mod was fooled, unless he was aware and just chose to ignore it on the basis of it being invalid.

[DeathSauce]

That seems pretty chancy to me Miztef, especially when it's my neck that's on the line!

Rules:
Please read before you start playing!
-Not following the rules could get you modkilled, depending on which rule.
-The game will start in Day 1.
-After you received your role PM you have to confirm by sending me a PM.
-

During the day the players have to vote like this:

Vote: Lawrencelot.

If you switch votes you have to

unvote

first. You can also

vote: no lynch

. If your vote is not in bold it will not be counted.

Lawrencelot says the votes "have to look like this" which implies but doesn't state that tiny type isn't permitted.

It seems to me like that would have been a clever "out" for a scum. If the hammer fell on me, the thread is locked, then the next day you can come in and say "But I did a double-secret unvote!" It's too late and you get the bonus of being able to promote the player that dropped the hammer as scum.

This strategy is especially dangerous when we have an unknown second NK-able entity.

[Lawrencelot]

I didn't notice it indeed, but now I still don't count this unvote. Although the rules don't specifically state it, the tiny size of letters will not be counted for votes or unvotes. You are allowed to use it as you wish, but I will not take it into account. Similar, you are not allowed to use blue color, because I already use that. It would cause confusion. And you are also not allowed to use extra big letters in abundance. Just use regular letters as much as possible, and use italics or underlined letters for extra attention.

[Miztef]

Meh, to tell the truth, I wouldn't have completely minded if you were lynched anyway deathsauce.

I saw someone do it in another thread (it failed there, and the scum won) but I thought I'd try it out here anyway.

unvote

[DeathSauce]

I saw someone do it in another thread (it failed there, and the scum won) but I thought I'd try it out here anyway.

Wow.

[VanDamien]

Apart from the scumhunting, I feel the need to address Miztef's actions.

That is extremely unethical by the standards of how the game is played around here. And while it's not in this ruleset, you'll find that very thing specifically mentioned in many others. Lawrencealot has confirmed that the omission is not intentional. Frankly, I put it up there with using invisitext - or worse, unallowed out of thread communication, because it is unlikely everyone will even notice it. And everyone has every right to all information given in the game, unless specific to their role (ie, scum communicating, cop results, etc.)

Furthermore, the "trap" is highly suspicious to me. If you think Death is scum, let logic prevail. If you think someone else is scum, build the case. Needing a "gotcha" moment to lay suspicion is awfully scummy. Like you're afraid someone will see through you. Like maybe you and ryan are actually scum together and are trying to bring me down with you. My read on this game is completely skewed now, and I'll have to spend some tome rereading again.

One thing is for certain,

unvote

. Death, I still find you probable scum, but Miztef moreso.

Vote: Miztef

[Miztef]

interesting VanDamien.

Going after me on ethnically views? I'm not sure what to think of it right now, but I find it hypocritical that you would vote me and say "If you think Death is scum, let logic prevail" in the same post.

Also, I don't think any scums strategy would be to collaberate on bringing down someone with them... because they don't want themselves to be under suspicion at all!

I'm gonna

vote: VanDamien

.

[vollkan]

This has certainly taken an interesting turn and for now I definitely

Unvote DeathSauce

.

Miztef's ploy was unethical and, as VD and Death have pointed out, highly suspect. Adding to what has been said already, another major problem I see with your behaviour is that it demonstrates that at this stage of the game you were prepared to allow someone to be lynched when you yourself believed otherwise. I don't need to both making a comment on how incredibly risky that is.

You knew the tactic had not worked previously and I was able to reason out of common sense that it would be invalid above. As such, I find it rather suspicious that you are prepared to risk everything on this tactic which you yourself knew had failed.

What if both Death and the hammer were town? In that case, your little ploy would only create confusion and cause us to lose the game.

I was aware of your unvote, I think I must have been the only person to notice it before your revelation. At the time, I figured it was unethical and probably invalid and, whilst I reasoned that you were likely trying to use it as a trap, I realised it was a fairly suspect means of going about it. I suspected Death strongly and would not have been unhappy with a lynch at that point, though I gradually developed some reservations owing to the Miztef/VD/Ryan post.

Also, your latest post is very OMGUS and WIFOM:

interesting VanDamien.

Going after me on ethnically views? I'm not sure what to think of it right now, but I find it hypocritical that you would vote me and say "If you think Death is scum, let logic prevail" in the same post.

Also, I don't think any scums strategy would be to collaberate on bringing down someone with them... because they don't want themselves to be under suspicion at all!

I'm gonna vote: VanDamien.

I guess this is the first time you've been under suspicion the whole game and you have really cracked. VD's thing about ethics was not, from my understanding, hypocritical. You think it is hypocritical that he suspects Death but then votes you. The fact is, Miztef, that your unvote is incredibly suspect since it risks our entire game. If you (miztef) are town, then it was stupid, if you are scum then it has failed and you were pretty foolish to reveal it.

The thing about "bringing them down" is total WIFOM. You dismiss the point because "A scum wouldn't do that, it would bring them under suspicion".

Then the vote which is just OMGUS.

FoS: Miztef

I don't want to vote Miztef just yet, since this could well just be a stupid tactic by a townie. I've said my piece on the matter. Death, you have not escaped my suspicion, but given Miztef's actions I don't feel confident voting for you.

[DeathSauce]

I have made my views abundantly clear. I realize that there is still suspicion on me, but this schism in the ranks of who I believe to be scum is the only chance we have to lynch scum with the non-participation factor.

I assume it will come as no surprise that I will

unvote, vote:Miztef

.

One thing is for certain, unvote. Death, I still find you probable scum, but Miztef moreso. Vote: Miztef

I will say this, VanDamien was the only one of the 'triad' that I was somewhat uncertain of. I still find you to be

probable

scum, as you say, but I didn't think you deserved a vote. Your willingness to vote Miztef affirms my doubts about your scuminess to a slight degree.

[vollkan]

I have made my views abundantly clear. I realize that there is still suspicion on me, but this schism in the ranks of who I believe to be scum is the only chance we have to lynch scum with the non-participation factor.

Good point. If Miztef is scum, which now seems more likely to me than yourself being scum Death, then we now have the necessary fifth vote in VD. That leaves Ryan as the most likely scum partner, which would support the findings in [604]. If you look, most of the posts which supported the Ryan/Miztef/VD trio were by Ryan and Miztef.

The only post by VD that actually supported that theory was [523] which was, as you can see above, was one of the most definite posts evidencing Death's theory. VD has pretty much undergone a turnabout from:

Paradoxombie and DeathSauce are scum; along with either vollkan or Trust, and I lean towards vollkan.

Miztef, ryan, TopHat, StallingChamp, and me are town, along with the one of Trust or vollkan who is not scum.

At the moment, I think it likely that Miztef and Ryan are scum partners with SC/TopHat as a third.

My reason for not pegging Trust as a likely third is that Trust confirmed he was not going to vote to lynch Death. My reason for not pegging Para as a likely third is that Miztef has consistently been suspicious of Para. Neither of which are conclusive and both are potential thirds, but I don't think they are as likely as SC/TopHat.

[Paradoxombie]

I still haven't had a chance to re-read, but on recent events, 2 points:

1. Also Volkan since you noticed that Mitzef used this tactic which you consider unethical, why not point it out? It seems just as bad to wait and see what happens as to use it in the first place. I think his intentions were fairly obvious. It's almost hypocritical that you'd allow it and yet criticize him for it now as risky.

2. I don't think what Miztef did proves he is scummy. At best it shows that he set himself up to look good no matter what the outcome of a lynch, which is only FOS worthy, in my opinion. I just don't feel that what miztef did and said about what he did is much more likely to come from scum than a townie. It certainly demands investigation, but I think I'll need more evidence for a lynch on Miz.

[vollkan]

Well, for starters his intentions were not obvious. I found it as I was writing my massive post [604]. I didn't know what to make of it since whilst it seemed likely it was a trap to catch yourself or Para, I also had the sorts of suspicions that Death raised in [607]. As I said back in [606], I was unsure of the ethics and I highly suspected it would be invalid.

I didn't know whether I should have revealed it or not. In the end, I chose not to but added

Waiting is most likely the best option for now, since I really cannot work out what course of action to take in the absence of replacers.

at the end of [604], mainly as a result of my uncertainty regarding the unvote.

It seemed very unlikely to me that Para or Trust would vote to hammer without further discussion.

My intention was to reveal it after having some responses to my post [604] since I could see that acting in that way would generate quite a bit of information (ie. we could see people's responses to the evidence for Ryan/Miztef/VD and then see the responses to the unvote) and help get us out of the rut we are in.

A question for Miztef:
If you actually knew it had failed in another game, why were you prepared to take that risk here? Not only that, but it would have been entirely reasonable for a town player to lynch Death at that point (particularly since you yourself had encouraged the lynch). As such, even if your unvote had been effective, there was a high likelihood of a town player being caught by your trick. Did you consider that?

[Miztef]

Well put Vollkan.

First thing: I still believe deathsauce could be scum. If someone pro-town was willing to hammer him, then I think in all likelyhood, Deathsauce is scum, or we have some bad pro-town players. Therefore, the trap was most likely to fall on a scum imo. However, since the trap failed, I am leaning towards him being town.

This, in turn, leads me to believe that you (Vollkan) and other people on the death bandwagon are the most likely scum. This is because if Death is town, the scum were most likely already on the bandwagon, or noticed the trap.

However, on the reverse, if deathsauce is scum, then players outside the bandwagon are most likely scum.

Important:

My ploy was mostly for game progression. We were stuck, there was no new information, and players were just slugging around uninspiring info about why this and that person is slightly scummy. I did believe my ploy would be effective (in that, it would work if it actually counted as an unvote) and felt strongly that deathsauce was scum at that time anyway. Also, by "fail" in another game, I meant the scum noticing it, not the mod disregarding it, in case that was misintepreted.

In the end, my ploy has done little to harm the town, and has created a wealth of interesting info to look into. Games are no fun without risk.

[vollkan]

To summarise that post by Miztef:

1) If Death is town then Vollkan/VD/Ryan are likely scum.
2) If Death is scum then the players off the wagon are likely scum.
3) Regardless, Miztef is town.

3) refutes 1) due to the fact that Miztef was on the Death wagon (which sounds like some kind of military vehicle) himself. As such, if Miztef is a townie as his post suggests, then he himself demonstrates that it was reasonable for town to be on the wagon. Hence, being on the wagon is not evidence of likely scum.

I had found there to be a strong case against Death and felt confident he was scum. On that note, I still have suspicion of Death (his readiness to vote Miztef is another point here), but with everything that has now happened I don't feel confident placing a vote on anyone just yet. Miztef's "unvote" is not proof of scumminess, which is why I disagree with VD and Death's responses. Though, likewise, there are good reasons to be suspicious of the "unvote" (hence my FoS) and, as I have already said, we cannot just ignore it.

2) of Miztef's has problems due to the fact that we are down 2 players. If Death is scum, then it is unlikely scum were on his wagon; that is a likely though not certain proposition. That would leave 2 other scum. Miztef said:

However, on the reverse, if deathsauce is scum, then players outside the bandwagon are most likely scum.

If Death is scum, as he may well be, I don't think suspicion is justified towards Para and Trust on the basis of 2), due to the fact we are absent 2 players. Death/SC/TopHat is just as likely as Death/Trust/Para, or a mix of them. Maybe that is obvious, but it needs to be said.

And, Miztef, you did not answer my second question:

As such, even if your unvote had been effective, there was a high likelihood of a town player being caught by your trick. Did you consider that?

Your latest post asserts that if Death was town (as you believed) then Trust and Para were also town. As such, isn't it true that the only people who could have been caught were Trust and Para? If you did believe that it was a scum wagon, why would you lay a trap for townies who were not on the wagon?

[Miztef]

@vollkan: I did not really believe it was a scum or town wagon, I was using the trap partly to figure that out.

If a town player was caught by my trap, then they would indeed be under heavy suspicion. However, the idea was, that if any scum were left to jump on the vote, they would and would win right then and there (since we are likely in LYLO). I don't believe a townie would hammer without good evidence of doing so, and therefore, if a townie did hammer, it is most likely that deathsauce is scum after all.

[Paradoxombie]

So all we've really proved is that IF neither me nor Trust noticed the unvote, then we are either not scum, or not in LYLO, but not both.

[DeathSauce]

2. I don't think what Miztef did proves he is scummy. At best it shows that he set himself up to look good no matter what the outcome of a lynch, which is only FOS worthy, in my opinion.

Sorry, but this just baffles me. A player uses a highly questionable tactic in the game and then comes right out and says that they saw it used in a game where it gave the scum the win, and you think it it's only FOS-worthy? Do you need Miztef to actually announce that he is scum? Because what he's done is just one step short of that.

Vollkan, the reason that Miztef isn't answering your question is because there is no answer for him to give other than the real one that he has already given, he saw it used in another game as a successful scum tactic.

[vollkan]

So all we've really proved is that IF neither me nor Trust noticed the unvote, then we are either not scum, or not in LYLO, but not both.

That pretty much sums it up. It would be very useful were it not for its dependence on you/Trust having noticed it.

Also, regarding the LYLO point I have a question:
If we screw up today it goes to 5:3 (assuming vig and not sk). Then a scum NK brings it to 4:3. The vig can then either bring it to 3:3 or 4:2. What happens at 3:3, or any even split like 2:2, 4:4, etc.?

[DeathSauce]

had found there to be a strong case against Death and felt confident he was scum. On that note, I still have suspicion of Death (his readiness to vote Miztef is another point here),

I don't know why my willingness to vote Miztef would be another point. I can't possibly have made myself more clear on who I think is scum in this game. If there is a chance to join a wagon for a successful lynch on a player that I think is scum, I would be the worst townie ever by not doing so.

I still would like to see an actual post of substance of

anything

that I have done that appears scummy so that I can address it. All I have seen in the last three pages is posts saying "DeathSauce seems scummy", not a single one saying "DeathSauce seems scummy because..."