Mini 418: Blue Jam. Game over (Mafia win)

[Dagger]

*lips quirk up*

I am the cop.

Figured FL couldn't be a scum, because why would a scum went ahead and counterclaimed a doctor out of nowhere just to ensure a misynch? I thought a confirmation of his alignment would be useful because he would invariably come under fire the very next day. It was for this very reason that I thought the mafia would let FL alive if he really was town to draw fire onto him or FL would be alive anyway if he was scum.

I was rather disappointed when I was informed that someone killed him.

[creampuffeater]

now why are YOU claiming?

[ThAdmiral]

This is great, it's all out in the open now.

unvote

[Dagger]

Simple. People will keep bugging me about why I targetted FL last night and if I didn't explain, I anticipate several abilities being used on me tonight, including tracking, watching, roleblocking, and maybe vigging. We now know FL had the misfortune of being targetted by as many as 5 people just last night.

And besides, we still have a Watcher. I propose the Watcher watches me tonight, assuming he is town of course. In the event that I am NKed, we'll know who to go after.

I am seeing the field being narrowed down right now beautifully.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Ok, so:

No claim:

creampuffeater
Simenon
StallingChamp
Shanba? (Not sure if he has, but I don't think so.)

Claimed:

The Central Scrutinizer - Day Communicator
ThAdmiral - Tracker
Dagger - Cop
Ectomancer - Vigilante
Cogito Ergo Scum - Watcher

I'm reasonably certain that Shanba is town. If we assume that everyone who has claimed is town, which I'm

not certain is a reasonable assumption

, then we have our three scum: CPE, StallingChamp, and Simenon. However, I don't think that we should be assuming that all of those who have claimed are innocent. Three investigative roles seems a little much for the town: Tracker, Watcher, and Cop. I'm of the opinion that one of the three is definitely mafia. Since I don't think that Cop would be a great mafia role in this setup, it would make more sense that either ThAdmiral or Cogito Ergo Scum be mafia. Combined with my previous thoughts on the mason shenanigans last night, I think my conclusions below are reasonable.

I'm going to

Confirm Vote: Cogito Ergo Scum

for reasons I've already stated. I'm going to

FoS: StallingChamp's eventual replacement

and

Fos: CPE

because I think they're the other two scum by process of elimination. I think bird was telling the truth, CEScum was trying to set up Simenon, and therefore our three scum are CEScum plus the two townies that remain who were not misled or targeted by CEScum.

[Shanba]

Ho Hum. I haven't claimed yet. At this point, though, with this many roles out, we may as well mass-claim.

Thinking things over, I draw slightly different conclusions to both what I said before and what TCS said.

All the powers claimed have been proved. TCS communicated with me, ThAdmiral's results match up in a way he could not have anticipated unless he has the role he claimed, the same is true of CESc. Ecto has a killing role as dagger did not counterclaim the kill. Oh, dagger's role is not proved.

However, looking through the list of roles, that's a lot of town power. I can't imagine every player who claimed is town, especially with a dead doc, a dead quack and a dead roleblocker. I have a feeling that roles =/= alignment.

TCS' predecessor seemed to believe he would be confirmed through his role. That makes me think he's likely town, as I don't think that's a conclusion that would come naturally to scum.

ThAdmiral scum would not track the person who had already claimed, he would almost certainly instead track someone else to if he could find more power roles. It's an action that wouldn't make sense as scum. Unless... it's possible he tracked bird last night. But it's a longshot.

Dagger's role is unconfirmed, but his claimed actions make more sense as town than scum

Ecto... hrm. Could be SK, but the way he hinted at power yesterday makes me think he's likely telling the truth. Almost certainly not mafia, though, or this game is borked.

CEScum is is a bit trickier. As a mafia watcher, FL would make an excellent target lsat night: there's a good chance he would be targeted by power roles, which the scum could then kill. However as town, his choice makes less sense: why would he watch the player who's most likely to be scum? FL was very unlikely to be mafia targeted last night. He's a gimmick, so he might well have enough experinece to work this out. I'd like an explanation for this.

Simenon's response to my claim of info on him seems very much like a town reaction. He wasn't intent on flinging dirt at me or trying to drag me down with him. He wsa simply trying to get to th bottom of what he was accused of.

cpe: unclaimed and not too useful this game. I could ssee him as scum.

SC: I reckon he's scum. By process of elimination.

Vote StallingChamp

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

CEScum is is a bit trickier. As a mafia watcher, FL would make an excellent target lsat night: there's a good chance he would be targeted by power roles, which the scum could then kill. However as town, his choice makes less sense: why would he watch the player who's most likely to be scum? FL was very unlikely to be mafia targeted last night. He's a gimmick, so he might well have enough experinece to work this out. I'd like an explanation for this.

Indeed. As you say, FL was very unlikely to be targeted by the mafia last night, while there would be a pretty good reason for almost any town power role to target FL tonight. I think I cleared quite a bunch of people with my results from last night.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Do we know who bird roleblocked last night?

[Shanba]

Yes. faerielord.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Yes. faerielord.

How do we know that?

[Shanba]

1: He told me he did
2: CEScum claims to have seen him target FL.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

It just seems a little strange that the mafia kill would be 'misdiagnosed' while the quack doctor was roleblocked. Oh well. I shouldn't pursue this line of thinking further. If bird told you he did that, then either you're lying or we don't need to look any further than the 3-4 people I posted about already.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

One juicy possibility that I would be neglectful not to point out, would be that Shanba and CEScum are both scum, and are both lying. Shanba claims that bird targeted FL, CEScum is a Scum Watcher and adds bird to the list of people that targeted FL to 'prove' Shanba's information, while in reality bird roleblocked the killing member of the mafia last night. I'm basing this theory in large part off of the mod's description of how bird died.

Of course, it seems I might be acting too much under the assumption of CEScum as scum.

[Shanba]

The situation you are supposing is an unlikely one, objectively, as it would mean if I died and came up scum CEScum would have tied himself to me.

[Dagger]

I think Ecto really is the vig. I see no reason for a SK to target FL if he inevitably was going to come under fire the very next day.

I can see CES as a mafia watcher. He really didn't have any incentive to watch FL to see who would target FL if he suspected FL was a scum.

I have a rough plan in mind. I want to see what the town think about it.

We lynch one (CPE or SC) and vig the other. Since SC still has no replacement. I think the better lynch option would be CPE, after we extract a claim from him.

Then, we have CES watch me while I investigate him, and let the tracker (Admiral) tracks someone else who is a suspect (maybe Simenon).

[ThAdmiral]

sounds like a plan.

vote: creampuffeater

[Ectomancer]

It doesnt take into account which of us will be NK'd tonight, but that even should give us some decent information.

unvote (if voting), vote: creampuffeater

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Allright then. I'll watch Dagger tonight.

Unvote, Vote Creampuffeater

[creampuffeater]

how does this make sence? you guys have no proof and no case and yet you all wagon me. You have some plan from somebody who does not come up with cunning plans*tm
often. NO PROOF I SAY!

[Ectomancer]

Forgot to mention @Dagger - Yes, the reason I killed FL last night was because I was certain that he would be the lynch today, meaning that we would probably have a short day, not good for town. Offing him last night allowed us to move along today with better material.

@creampuffeater - LOL, I almost feel like that was an "I give up, Im scum" post.

[creampuffeater]

Cept it wasnt? ahem... I am still waiting for the answer to my question.

[ThAdmiral]

Cept it wasnt? ahem... I am still waiting for the answer to my question.

Come up with a better plan using all the roles etc.

[Dagger]

Once you eliminate the impossible, my dear CPE, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth. :p

Oh yeah, I would also appreciate it if the votes stop pilling up till we have everyone chiming in with their thoughts and/or we have already extracted a claim from CPE.

[Ectomancer]

Cept it wasnt? ahem... I am still waiting for the answer to my question.

I'm still waiting on your objections to the plan, other than you being the lynch of course. If you were town, you would support a plan that helps us identify scum, even if you are one of the suspects.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I can deal with this plan. I can see one problem with it, but hopefully it will all work out to our benefit.

unvote, vote: CPE