Mini 456: Ultimatum Mafia - Game Over!

[The Fonz]

Dylan still looks incredibly scummy in my eyes. However, I also want to hear much more from DanMonkey and SpinWizard, and to a lesser extent, Dean and VanDamien, today.

[Stewie]

I agree with that. The rest of us have been pretty active.

[dylan41985]

these are my picks for omafia

liberal: dylan, danmonkey, spinwizard
conservative: stoofy, stewie, yos

I think Sparks' post here will turn out to be helpful to find the last liberal mafia. It's obviously not me because he challenged me and it's very likely not danmonkey or spinwizard because Sparks lied about Carrotcake (and they voted to save me).

We can also eliminate the people who voted to save me (because the other liberal mafia would have voted for Sparks).

That leaves:

DeanWinchester
mneme
The Fonz
VanDamien

One of these is the third liberal mafia.

[dylan41985]

or, maybe we should try to target someone on the conservative mafia to reduce their power in numbers... But that could be anyone at this point.

[The Fonz]

these are my picks for omafia

liberal: dylan, danmonkey, spinwizard
conservative: stoofy, stewie, yos

I think Sparks' post here will turn out to be helpful to find the last liberal mafia. It's obviously not me because he challenged me and it's very likely not danmonkey or spinwizard because Sparks lied about Carrotcake (and they voted to save me).

We can also eliminate the people who voted to save me (because the other liberal mafia would have voted for Sparks).

Dangerous assumption to make.

That leaves:

DeanWinchester
mneme
The Fonz
VanDamien

One of these is the third liberal mafia.[/quote]

Quite possibly, but it's also entirely plausible to think the causation may run the other way- ie, Sparks accused everyone who voted against him of being scum in an OMGUSpectacular.

[dylan41985]

Maybe it's a dangerous assumption because YOU are the third mafia?

[Yosarian2]

We probably want to get rid of one of the conservative mafia people today; if we go hunting for last liberal mafia member, it just makes the 3 member conservative mafia stronger and they're the biggest danger to the town right now.

At the moment, I'm thinking Dylan is most likely to be a member of the conservative mafia; he looks quite scummy, and clearly wasn't scum with Sparks, so at the moment he's my best suspect for a conservative mafia member.

vote:dylan

I also agree with The Fonz that we need to hear more from SpinWizard and DanMonkey.

[Guardian]

Several players have been prodded according to our prod schedule. We are still searching for a replacement for DanMonkey...

Reminder:

Deadline to Challenge: randomized moment between June 20th-21st
Deadline to Lynch: June 24th 23:59 EDT

[mneme]

I think it's probably Dean, given the favoritism shown there. But you never know.

Nom: Dylan

I agree that Dylan, as someone clearly not on the same team as sparks, but also very scummy, is a good pick for today.

Spin and Danmonkey's replacement are also good placed to look. Whee, it's the weekend. But I got prodded anyway.

[DeanWinchester]

I'm here, Have not had a chance to go back and look at the thread now that we know those two are mafia.

I think making the assumption that the third member absolutely voted for sparks is dumb. There is a very good chance that the third scum voted to save dylan to distance themselves from sparks.

The Person to go after today is Dylan. His poor job at defending himself, his blatant lying about his nom vote on me being random, and his very wierd allusion to a power role. Which was noted yesterday, but not brought up by many poeple.

Danmonkeys quick vote to save Dylan has me very suspicous of him. The fact that we can't get an ansewer on this question has my very disapointed.

[The Fonz]

Maybe it's a dangerous assumption because YOU are the third mafia?

Well, no, because in that case it would have been a safe assumption, wouldn't it? It would be a dangerous assumption for precisely the reason Dean just pointed out:

I'm here, Have not had a chance to go back and look at the thread now that we know those two are mafia.

I think making the assumption that the third member absolutely voted for sparks is dumb. There is a very good chance that the third scum voted to save dylan to distance themselves from sparks.

Precisely. It's worth noting that Carrotcake spent pretty much all of day one distancing from Sparks. Though, of course, it's equally worth noting that he (and I) voted for Dylan, so there's the well-he-would-say-that element. I think the point (we shouldn't be making any WIFOMy assumptions about what scum would and wouldn't do) is strong enough to stand nonetheless.

We probably want to get rid of one of the conservative mafia people today; if we go hunting for last liberal mafia member, it just makes the 3 member conservative mafia stronger and they're the biggest danger to the town right now.

Whilst I agree that the conservatives are the greater threat right now, we should also bear in mind that with two dead liberals, we're not going to get any more 'connection' information than we already have- so it's probably a good idea for everyone who has the time to do a re-read focussed on the two dead scum as well, to see what clues we can pick up from there. I'll be doing my own shortly.

[The Fonz]

EBWODP: Dean and I both voted

for Sparks

and against Dylan.

[Mr Stoofer]

Sorry but I won't have time to do a proper post until tomorrow.

I have read the thread and obviously Sparks was mafia. Yosarian2 is dead right - we need to go after the Conservative Mafia now - the one-man liberal mafia is pretty much no threat at all to us now, as long as he gets killed at some point while we gun down the conservatives.

The most likely conservative is of course dylan.

Nominate: dylan

.

[Battle Mage]

hey guys. im replacing DanMonkey.
Im reading through now. this game looks like good fun.

BM

[Guardian]

This is an NGR News Report!

Reminder:

Deadline to Challenge: randomized moment between June 20th-21st
Deadline to Lynch: June 24th 23:59 EDT

Those damn underground radio stations blatantly violated monopoly-protection law in their last broadcast by breaking Carrotcake's story before we did. Don't worry, we will give them hell for this, and make sure we continue to give you updated coverage on all relevant issues.

We wanted to let you know that the orphans of the USSPSSSC enjoyed feasting on the frosting filled Carrotcake, and one child actually registered as obese after the feast, a proud accomplishment for their starving nation. This shows once again how our corrupt and evil government can have a kind and helpful influence on the rest of the world.

As for you who choose to live

here

, though... Let us just say that the demands and expectations are high, and Carrotcake's end is nothing compared to what is to come.

Speaking of high expectations, one of you apparently could not meet them, and is being replaced by a worthier citizen:

Battle Mage replaces DanMonkey, effective immediately!

Citizens, welcome him and thank him for his willingness to join our country and eagerness to serve.

That's all the new for today, NGR out!

[The Fonz]

Welcome Battle Mage. If nothing else, I guess we can rely on you not to lurk.

[mneme]

Battlemage seems likely not to lurk, yes -- that would be good. (though carrotcake did the town a favor).

I love this, btw:

ps carrotcake u shuld vote b4 deadline even tho it doesnt matter cuz i think u are town

Sparks: not one of our most subtle mafia. (I was thinking of commenting on this as it looked like advice to a scumbuddy -- as it turned out, I didn't have to and I was right).

To add a secondary thread to the !dylan topic -- anyone disagree with keeping the "nominate up to two" feel from yesterday? I think it does its job at generating extra info beyond the pure lynch.

Speaking of which,

Nom: Deanwinchester

.

I don't think he's conservative if Dylan is (no love lost there), but it's entirely likely that he's our last liberal, given all the love shown his way from Sparks (defense against dylan's weird voting in 147, his defense of dean in 109, calling him town in 67 and 52), and vice versa.

That said, it's very important that we lynch in highprob->lowprob order, with enough info to be able to win the endgame (which means, really, correctly identifying at least two players as not part of either scum group and being right, though correctly identifying more town players will let us win faster).

[Yosarian2]

To add a secondary thread to the !dylan topic -- anyone disagree with keeping the "nominate up to two" feel from yesterday? I think it does its job at generating extra info beyond the pure lynch.

Eh...nominating up to 2 isn't really harmful, but I don't think we should or can try to pick both sides; basically, the person with the most nominations should decide who he wants to challange to a debate, and if he fails to do that someone else should challange him. That's basically what we did yesterday and I think it worked out well.

That said, it's very important that we lynch in highprob->lowprob order, with enough info to be able to win the endgame (which means, really, correctly identifying at least two players as not part of either scum group and being right, though correctly identifying more town players will let us win faster).

So, you're thinking that it's more important to lynch someone who's high probability scum rather then someone we think is more likely to be a member of the conservative mafia? I'm not sure I agree; the longer we go without getting rid of a conservative mafia member, the more dangerous they will be as a voting block, and also even if we get the last member of the liberal mafia it won't really give us any information that can help us find who's town and who's conservative mafia. I mean, we do need to get rid of the last liberal eventually, but I don't think that should be a priority now.

[Mr Stoofer]

I am definitely against trying to track down the last liberal mafia as a priority. The longer those damn conservatives are around the harder this is going to become.

There is no chance that dylan is liberal mafia, and good chance that he's scum, so I think he is the ideal candidate for today. He's head and shoulders above anyone else in terms of scumminess, so I'm going to find it hard to identify any other good candidates for a challenge while he is still around.

[VanDamien]

No there is no chance Dylan is liberal, because I am.

Here's the deal; I know I have no chance of winning now. There's too much suspicion on me already, and I've made some bad choices. My side might have had a chance if Carrot hadn't gone and gotten himself modkilled, but there's nothing I can do about that.

So, I've been thinking whether I'd rather help the town or the conservatives win, and I've decided to help the town. That involves outing myself and offering myself to be used.

Town: you now have an opportunity to conduct lynches as normal if you desire. Nominate who you wish before deadline, and I'll challenge, giving a clear choice to all those who would vote: hunt conservative or not. I know I'll have to be lynched eventually, but that's the breaks.

[The Fonz]

Hmm, that was unexpected. I'm thinking at the moment, the best move is to lynch VanDamien the day after we get the first conservative. At the moment, he's a non-conservative body. However, there seems little point in waiting until there's one of each left to lynch VD, unless doing so would put us in LyLo.

Anyone else got a different (read: better) plan?

[Battle Mage]

hmm, before i believe you, id like to wait for a potential counter-claim. i really dont see the logic behind you claiming now. aside from us eliminating the last traces of Liberal-scum, it doesnt really get us much further. i dont like your plan involving a choice between you and a potential Tory. That doesnt necessarily give us any more chance of hitting scum. Assuming your claim checks out, id be far more inclined to kill you today, and then continue tomorrow, hunting for the conservatives.
Stoofer was spot on with his comments that trying to find the last Liberal was pointless, but seeing as we have to kill you eventually to win, i see no reason not to do so now, so we ensure ourselves a stronger majority tomorrow, and we can focus more clearly on killing the Conservative scumgroup.

BM

[The Fonz]

That doesn't entirely make sense. The two scumgroups' winning condition states that the group needs to be alive (ie, at least one surviving member) and equal in number to all others surviving. If we agree to keep him alive until the first Con is found, that gives us three, rather than two, mislynches before we're at LyLo, in the scenario where our first two don't hit scum.

[Battle Mage]

hmm, you might be right. my brain isnt quite registering it. I just find it unnatural not to kill claimed scum, when we have no other CERTAIN leads...

[The Fonz]

Oh, and before I forget, we kill Van immediately after the first con, on the outside chance he's a con trying a gambit- we don't want him alive right at the end.