Open 570: Making Friends and Enemies (Mafia Wins!)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

OK Huntress.

Ready to vote Josh then?

[davesaz]

I'm not really convinced Nero is town. I could see Huntress as scum, she's one of my weaker town reads. I found some things which seem to support BBT's claim. The slot I'm most uncertain about is MS/Wisdom/Aegor. Totally need to do more reading of the thread to refine all this, other than the BBT claim which I have looked deeply at.

Pedit: I have seen both town and scum in Josh's posting, at various times. I have seen BBT organizing a LYLO vote when scum, but don't know if that is significant enough to override the evidence supporting the mason claim. I agree that it is quite possible to make VCA on its own mean almost anything you want it to. I think it is best used to narrow down re-reading of interactions.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Dave, see how many interactions you can find between the three of them.

It's very limited.

[davesaz]

That's exactly the approach I've been taking. It is time consuming, but has yielded results before.

[Huntress]

OK Huntress.

Ready to vote Josh then?

As soon as we've heard from Aegor. That's all I'm waiting for now. Although if he doesn't come up with something soon I'm tempted to go ahead anyway. I'm still fairly confident in my town read on that slot.

[Aegor]

Reading most recent pages now. Please wait.

[Aegor]

Well, that was less exciting than I thought it would be.

I am definitely not a Mason, so BBT is confirmed.



BBT's case on Josh is still standing given that GM's and then Huntress' responses did not really address it, and Josh's vote on me makes no sense and just seems desperate and sad.

[goodmorning]

Well in that case I need a reread. I don't have my computer right now so we'll see how fast that can go.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Alright, so how many people we got happy to vote Josh today?

I would honestly prefer to get GM today, but I don't think I will have enough support for her lynch.

Huntress, Aegor and myself are willing to vote Josh.

How is your read-up coming along Dave?

[beastcharizard]

Count count when I get to a computer later.

[Nero Cain]

Well, this is a shitty time to go

v/la! Might be gone a day or two

and am fine with lynching Josh. So I guess GM and Dave can finish their rereads.

[goodmorning]

I have returned to my computer and will be rereading shortly.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I think pretty much everyone has been on since Josh voted Aegor.

That means one of them is scum. I highly doubt it is Aegor, so Josh is scum.

Follow Josh's lynch with GM and Huntress and we win the game.

I hope people remember this after I get killed toNight.

[Huntress]

Why do you think Nero is town? You don't seem to have explained that anywhere. I've had a townishish vibe from him and Heph but POE is telling me he can't be, unless I'm wrong on GM which I don't think I am.

@ Aegor:

What's your read on Dave?

Vote: Josh

[BlueBloodedToffee]

FINAL VOTECOUNT

Vote Count

Peabody

(6):

BlueBloodedToffee

,

Malakittens

,

Shinobi

, Huntress, davesaz,

ucitron00

BlueBloodedToffee

(4): goodmorning,

Peabody

, Josh_B, Nero Cain

Not voting(1): Aegor,
With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2014-10-27 20:00:00)

PoE tells me Nero is town.

This wagon tells me you're scum because I believe Dave is town.

The GM wagon was also all-town and that tells me GM is scum.

[goodmorning]

VCA this. VCA that. VCA Everything. VCA is not a good scum-hunting tool. PEOPLE CAN MANIPULATE VCA. Stop it. Stop. It. Now.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hahaha, I like it GM.

Now, where are you reads at?

How is that catch-up coming along?

[goodmorning]

Slowly. I've had SO MUCH READING to do and this game is pretty low comparatively on my priority list.
I keep having to take breaks from reading too or else I find myself forward 10 pages with no memory of what happened in them.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Yeah. That sounds like stalling.

It doesn't matter, because I know you're scum.

What's your read on Josh?

[goodmorning]

And this is the part where I bring up the tired point that "stalling" isn't alignment-indicative for me, per Shadows and Lights where VT-me delayed making a single case for a whole month.

I don't have a read on Josh at present; I've thrown everything out.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I'm sure you have.

Town got this.

[goodmorning]

It's not like you can't look it up. If you want to cast aspersions there are better ways to do it.

[goodmorning]

So, I was doing some stats, and conveniently now have the ones for Opens ready to go. So:
In Opens, 14.39% of lynchwagons are solely comprised of Town. 36.84% of those all-Town wagons are on townies, a percentage which is surprisingly a lot higher than in Newbies.
The data set for these stats is all Open games that have ended in this calendar year (31, thus far).
You can find all this in the stats thread I put up for just this purpose.

So assuming that all 5-6 of those possibly all-town wagons you've picked out are on Scum is immensely silly.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

How about instead of producing these lovely stats, you start contributing something?

I mean, you keep promising it but it never comes.

We'll see if I'm right at the end of the game. I have explained why I think people are town and why this makes those people on certain wagons scum.

[Nero Cain]

Just to clarify, my v/la takes effect tomorrow.

VCA is a decent scumhunting tool. Its not as perfect as Titus and DGB make it out to so I pretty much hate GM arguing against that.