Micro 407: Jurassic Park Mafia - Game Over

[Mathdino]

1195=Goodposting

Dig deeper on your gut feelings on about BBT. Everything he's doing seems disjointed and nonlinear. Town doesn't generally make a big reversal without a good damn reason

Kind of flattered by your thumbnail model? I think?

Except that is literally BBT's playstyle. Tunneling, hopping, and hypocrisy.

[fferyllt]

Aaand now you're subject to WIFOM.

Why don't you think Beck, Scripten, BBT, and Grib would kill insanity? Again, highly low info kill since she had a sort of 'above it all' thing going on; I did too until I entered the lynch pool. I'm just kind of confused as to why someone WOULDN'T kill insanity. Were you expecting to die or something?

Despite my join date, I've only completed 4 games, just in case you wanted to know. Not sure if that's what you meant by 'thumbnail model', though I can't really argue with the fact that that's exactly what I'd do.

Edit: Pine and I are both in the lynchpool, fferyllt. And this game showcases pretty much my most apathetic play in history due to the fact that I don't think I really mesh well with the playerlist. Pine and I'd be terrible NK targets.

Ok. This info helps me put you in context a little. I really do need to reread your posts!

My most common cause of death in mafia games is N1K, so yeah, I never assume I'll survive to see day 2.

[Beck]

Which suggests to me that at least one scum is experienced and quite competent,

If I'm correct in assuming you are town, I disagree with that quote. I will say my town read on you has dropped cause I honestly was expecting you to draw the nk

As far as your disagreement, that doesn't surprise me given what I've seen of how you think about the game on day 1. The reason I think we have a competent and experienced scum is because none of the players I would characterize as experienced and competent were night killed.

So expereinced/competent scum leaves experienced/competent players alive and killa wild card players? That seems backwards

[Pine]

Thank you for categorizing yourself correctly, Beck

[Beck]

Thank you for categorizing yourself correctly, Beck

What?

[Pine]

It's one of those things where if I explain it, it isn't funny anymore

[Scripten]

Scripten I don't see anything at all prior to post 1186 indicating you'd be interested in voting BBT. What changed?

I reread his reversal on Grib. It doesn't flow like it should, especially considering what I know of BBT's play. He is known for hopping around and tunneling like mad. However, I've never seen him succeed in an argument, have his target concede a point (in his mind or not; not debating who won the BBT-Grib 1v1) and then have him back off. Analyzing the lynch pools reinforces my gut feeling on his playstyle.

Revised Lynch Pools

Scripten: Grib, Mathdino, BBT
Beck: Grib, Pine
Mathdino: Grib, Pine
Grib: fferyllt, Mathdino, Pine
Pine: Grib, BBT
BBT: Mathdino
Fferyllt: Grib

More Facts

- Everyone wants a Grib lynch right now, save BBT and Grib himself.
- 2 of the 3 people that want a Pine lynch would also want a Grib lynch. (Grib is the only one who doesn't, for obvious reasons.)
- None of the players who want a Mathdino lynch have any other lynch candidates in common.
- I just realized that my two other lynch candidates want to have a Mathdino lynch... Maybe I'm not so happy with that one.

[Beck]

oh so you are trying to insult me...

got it

:mental note. don't play with pine anymore:

[fferyllt]

Which suggests to me that at least one scum is experienced and quite competent,

If I'm correct in assuming you are town, I disagree with that quote. I will say my town read on you has dropped cause I honestly was expecting you to draw the nk

As far as your disagreement, that doesn't surprise me given what I've seen of how you think about the game on day 1. The reason I think we have a competent and experienced scum is because none of the players I would characterize as experienced and competent were night killed.

So expereinced/competent scum leaves experienced/competent players alive and killa wild card players? That seems backwards

In a larger game, usually no. In a game this size, mylo can happen on day 3. A scum player who is going to generate paranoia by still being alive will want to have other paranoia-inducing players still in the game.

In one of my most recent scum games, I brought Nacho and Zmuffin to lylo for that reason.

[Mathdino]

Interesting point, Scripten, I'll have to look over that.

:mental note. check to see if playerlist has at least 2 logically oriented players before signing up for themes i like:

[Scripten]

Oh, interesting.

Just noticed that nobody included Beck in their lynch pools. So neither Beck nor myself is in any lynch pool. This is a useful tool. I 'll have to remember it.

[Pine]

Interesting. So who dropped quietly dropped Beck from their pools?

[Beck]

Bbt was the only one who wanted me lynched

[Mathdino]

I did, Pine. Lot of this is based off of Beck's behaviour after being at L-1 for the 2nd time, and because of whatever night action happened. If you guys are neighbours, I do trust you'll come up with better reads of each other. Also I had a nagging suspicion that Scripten/Beck was what was actually going on near the end of yesterday but that's clearly out of the question.

[Mathdino]

Also reading fferyllt's arguments helped put Beck in a different light. The meta aspect is good too.

[Scripten]

Lynch Pools (Lynches spawned from tunnels are bolded; Reaction-test/Associatives/PoE are italicized)

Scripten:

Grib

,

Mathdino

, BBT
Beck:

Grib

, Pine
Mathdino: Grib, Pine
Grib: fferyllt, Mathdino, Pine
Pine: Grib,

BBT

BBT: Mathdino
Fferyllt: Grib

If anyone remembers a person entering their lynch pool because of PoE, reactions, or associations, let me know. I think I got all the tunnels, but correct me if I'm wrong, please.

PEDIT -

Beck:

We should also check the wagon from before the end of the night, keeping in mind that BBT was on VLA during that time.

Actually, just looked and BBT is the only player besides Majiffy on the Beck wagon. Finnlaw was there until Fferyllt replaced in and unvoted him.

[Beck]

The first thing I do when I start my re-read will be to look at all of the wagons who got to more than 50% votes needed to lynch and see who is on each wagon. I also want to see who was on each wagon that got to L-1. Sure it's early but it could provide useful

[Mathdino]

Literally all my reads are from PoE. Y'all play scummily enough that this is pretty much a game of nailing townreads for me.

I'll write up a VC chronology when I have more time, that might help a bit.

[fferyllt]

Why don't you think Beck, Scripten, BBT, and Grib would kill insanity? Again, highly low info kill since she had a sort of 'above it all' thing going on; I did too until I entered the lynch pool. I'm just kind of confused as to why someone WOULDN'T kill insanity. Were you expecting to die or something?

I think Beck's approach is a lot more linear. I think he'd want to remove direct threats. But, further, I don't think he's scum so who he'd kill as scum doesn't enter into the equation right now.

BBT is a possibility, but I think he'd choose insanity for different reasons than I would (and no, I'm not going to elaborate on this. I've given enough meta-signposts about my scum game today). Possibly also Grib. IIRC there's a newbie game where he left the IC and another player alive late, but newbie games are a little different for a host of reasons.

I have a mid-weight theory about how scum would play this game. That's all it is for now. Discussing it affects the game state. I hope to town's benefit.

[fferyllt]

1195=Goodposting

Dig deeper on your gut feelings on about BBT. Everything he's doing seems disjointed and nonlinear. Town doesn't generally make a big reversal without a good damn reason

Kind of flattered by your thumbnail model? I think?

Except that is literally BBT's playstyle. Tunneling, hopping, and hypocrisy.

Based on Scripten's meta defense?

[Mathdino]

Yes.

[Scripten]

Except that is literally BBT's playstyle. Tunneling, hopping, and hypocrisy.

Based on Scripten's meta defense?

Yes.

A meta defense that I don't think is applicable right now due to various diversions from the norm?

[fferyllt]

Which suggests to me that at least one scum is experienced and quite competent,

If I'm correct in assuming you are town, I disagree with that quote. I will say my town read on you has dropped cause I honestly was expecting you to draw the nk

by the way, this suggests you have a different theory about the scum team. What are you thinking?

[Mathdino]

Except that is literally BBT's playstyle. Tunneling, hopping, and hypocrisy.

Based on Scripten's meta defense?

Yes.

A meta defense that I don't think is applicable right now due to various diversions from the norm?

I've yet to reread the game

cough because reading y'all is tedious cough

, so I'm keeping in mind current arguments until I do. My reads are very much subject to change, don't worry.

[Beck]

Well I was thinking grib/pine last night just off points you made, I had convinced myself that you were absolutely going to die.

Now im less sure of my reads, and my read of you, especially since I remember who you replaced.