Mini 436 - Game over - Mafia wins with no casualties!

[vollkan]

You, for example, have been accused of being scum many times. If you are scum, it easily explains why the rest of the scum haven't jumped on the bandwagon. It could also be that the scum can't co-odinate the 3 votes needed in a fashion quick enough to win without one of use unvoting.

Lastly, The possibility of a vig or SK or other NKer would mean the scum doesn't auto win in that situation.

There is a slight error in that last sentence. If there is an SK the ratio at the moment is likely 6:2:1. Hence, there would be no way for the scum to co-ordinate 3 votes, unless the SK were to jump on the bandwagon also, thereby outing the members of the two factions.

As such, if there are 3 mafia capable of co-ordinating a lynch, there would have to be a vig (or "other NKer") as the other NK party. Assuming it is a vig:

To run through the numbers, a lynch of a town now will bring it to 5:3. Then a scum NK will bring that to 4:3. If the scum were to have rushed, the vig would then know who to target, bringing it to 4:2. The next day, we would know who to lynch and we would win.

Either way, it is not surprising that the scum have not rushed a lynch.
I hope those numbers are correct.

Mod edit
Votecount:
DeathSauce 2 (ryan, Miztef)
Paradoxombie 1 (VanDamien)
ryan 1 (DeathSauce)

Not voting 5: TopHat, Paradoxombie, Trustgossip, StallingChamp, vollkan

With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

[TrustGossip]

Sorry I have been very much in the background lately. I base a lot of my action on the pace of the game, as I feel that looking at a section of the game where two or more players have a fast-paced discussion yields much more information than a large amount of "posts for the sake of posting". I've been gone since Tuesday, so again I seem to have missed the most important part.

I promise to have updated conclusions from a full reread on Saturday.

Question to tide everyone over until then: Why the relatively lax amount of suspicion on vollkan and me? I know that I am playing devil's advocate with

myself

at this point, but please humor and give an answer if you want.

[Paradoxombie]

I'd like VD to answer the questions I posed in 563 and 565.

[ryan]

TG: Interested in the conclusions you promised for yesterday, what did ya find out?

[DeathSauce]

Anyway, now we get to a point where general consensus is narrowing down to either DeathSauce or Para

Geez, if this isn't a blatant example of "leading" I guess I've never see one.

Every time I re-read I become more and more convinced that ryan, miztef, and VanDamien are the scum. Each of the rest of us has been on the receiving end of their suspicion, it's time we lynch one of them.

[ryan]

Anyway, now we get to a point where general consensus is narrowing down to either DeathSauce or Para

Geez, if this isn't a blatant example of "leading" I guess I've never see one.

Every time I re-read I become more and more convinced that ryan, miztef, and VanDamien are the scum. Each of the rest of us has been on the receiving end of their suspicion,

it's time we lynch one of them.

And you call VD's post leading, what is that?

[DeathSauce]

Uhhh, I am not pretending that everyone else believes that you 3 are the scum, setting up false dichotomies, or any of the other elements of "leading". I am stating my own belief and what I think we should do. If you can't see the difference, then I wonder if you are being intentionally obtuse.

[VanDamien]

I'd like VD to answer the questions I posed in 563 and 565.

I'll get to this, I promise, in the next few days. Other games, that have enough players to realistically move forward are draining my time.

We really need our replacements.

[vollkan]

DeathSauce wrote:

Uhhh, I am not pretending that everyone else believes that you 3 are the scum, setting up false dichotomies, or any of the other elements of "leading". I am stating my own belief and what I think we should do. If you can't see the difference, then I wonder if you are being intentionally obtuse.

"False dichotomies"? Can you clarify what post you were referring to by that, unless it was just a hypothetical?

[TrustGossip]

This double combo of work and school is making my life unexpectedly busy. Summary forthcoming.

[DeathSauce]

Vollkan, the false dichotomy was in the excerpt I posted from VanDamien. He (falsely) claims that the general consensus is that Paradox or I is scum.

[vollkan]

Okay, I thought that was what you meant though it didn't match my understanding of a dichotomy so I wanted to be sure I hadn't misinterpreted.

[VanDamien]

Okay, Para's two questions:

563: I actually was confusing you, but with Trust, not Miztef. I'm willing at this point to adjust my call and say that Trust is more likely with vollkan and Death.

565: Yes, ABR should have been lynched. Things as they are, it throws a lot of confusion on a potential SK/vig.

@DeathSauce: Read vollkan's 560. You must have, it's the post right above the one where I said that, and the summary(which is correct at the time it was written) proves my statement, at least among active players, and we're the only one's that count at this point.

unvote vote: DeathSauce

Mod: Any luck in the past week?

[ryan]

I have a question to Vollkan and TrustGossip, you two have been fairly active but still haven't laid a vote on anyone, any suspicions that you two have that we could discuss? Paradoxombie, you asked a few questions of VD, happy with the answers you received? Any scumminess coming out of anyone in your mind at this time?

[vollkan]

@Ryan
My suspicions are still directed at Death and Para, with my feelings on Death being strongest at the moment due to the above "false dichotomy" thing, which I shall explain my reasoning on now:

A "false dichotomy" is not what Death has used the term as. Taking the wikipedia definition:

"The formal fallacy of false dilemma—also known as false choice, false dichotomy, falsified dilemma, fallacy of the excluded middle, black and white thinking, false correlative, either/or fallacy, and bifurcation—involves a situation in which two alternative statements are held to be the only possible options, when in reality there exist one or more other options which have not been considered."

This was in response to VD's statement that:

Anyway, now we get to a point where general consensus is narrowing down to either DeathSauce or Para, not just myself, Miztef, and you, but Trust seems to be leaning that way also. The other two are inactive, and our three scum have jumped on the chance to go on the attack.

I asked for clarification by Death regarding the use of "false dichotomy" and at [585] Death answered a request by me for clarification on the "false dichtomy" with:

Vollkan, the false dichotomy was in the excerpt I posted from VanDamien. He (falsely) claims that the general consensus is that Paradox or I is scum.

All of this consensus stuff began with my suspicion summary in [560]. Everything in there was true at the time, though things will have shifted slightly since then no doubt.

My point is that I don't like the fact that Death felt the need to resort to labelling VD with a logical fallacy, misapplying the fallacy as it turns out. Secondly, in the 585 quote above, Death dismisses the consensus notion as "false" which, of course, is wrong because at the time of [560] there was a consensus of opinion against Death and Para .

I am more than a little suspicious of the fact that Death has tried (and failed) to discredit the existence of any consensus against himself and Para. He could have ignored VD's statement regarding the consensus since it was fairly innocuous and obvious given what had been established in [560], but instead Death chose to attack it and alter it into an accusation of "leading" against VD.

This makes me very suspicious of Death and slightly more suspicious of Para, seeing as it would support them being scum buddies. For now,

FoS: DeathSauce

, to change into a vote if his explanation of the above behaviour is inadequate.

[Lawrencelot]

Still didn't found a replacement for StallingChamp or TopHat. If you know anyone, please tell me

[DeathSauce]

Vollkan, I'm sorry that I didn't check the

wikipedia

definition of 'false dichotomy' before I posted.

I still see VD's post as an attempt to frame a "false choice", if you prefer that term, of voting for either me or Paradox. If you can't see the co-ordinated effort between VD, ryan, and Miztef by this point I am helpless to help you. I'm at L-2 and if I get lynched the game is lost.

[DeathSauce]

To address the point that the bulk of the suspicion was on me and Paradox at the time of VD's post.

Don't you think that if there were three scum acting in concert in addition to four basically non-participating players that the scum's opinions will have the most weight behind them? Basically you are saying that the consensus was on me or Para because the scum said so.

[vollkan]

I used the wikipedia definition because it was at least clearer than anything I could write myself.

Now, rather than calling it a "false dichotomy" you have chosen to call it a "false choice", overlooking the point of what I said. There WAS a consensus of opinion against you and Para. T hat does not create a "false choice" by any sense of the phrase, it merely notes that majority suspects you and Para. The fact that you seem to deny a consensus and now continue to try to represent it as a "false choice"/"false dichotomy"/scum plot strikes me as very much an over-reaction.

Your most recent post now looks like an effort to frighten me into not voting for you. You begin by reiterating what I had just dismissed, then you assert that VD, Ryan and Miztef are acting in unison and then you tell me that if you get lynched the game is lost.

All of this strikes me as very defensive and it seems like I struck a nerve by questioning your false dichotomy thing.

vote: DeathSauce

.

[DeathSauce]

I'm not trying to scare anyone. I am a vanilla townie. Unvote me or the game is lost.

[DeathSauce]

Way to completely ignore my post 592 in your response, by the way.

[vollkan]

Cross-posted unfortunately.

To address the point that the bulk of the suspicion was on me and Paradox at the time of VD's post.

Don't you think that if there were three scum acting in concert in addition to four basically non-participating players that the scum's opinions will have the most weight behind them? Basically you are saying that the consensus was on me or Para because the scum said so.

Firstly, you entirely ignore the possibility that there are scum among the inactives. That is one major weakness in your assertion that Ryan/Miztef/VD are the scum, the other being the lack of evidence other than the fact that they have all thought similarly, which doesn't help you much since I agree with the arguments against you.

And again in [592], you argue that the consensus is all a scum plot against yourself and Para. Here, I see one of the two players I most suspect tell me that the whole case against them is a scum concoction, pulling out phrases like "false choice" to somehow beef up their case. If you and Para are scum then it is impossible that all of the others are. Hence, I get into a "real choice" of either yourself being the scum with Para as a likely partner or Miztef/Ryan/VD being scum. On the totality of evidence, I think the former is definitely more likely. You are continuously raising my suspicion of yourself by this defensive behaviour and now trying to make me think I have fallen into a trap by the scum.

I'm not trying to scare anyone. I am a vanilla townie. Unvote me or the game is lost.

You aren't trying to scare anyone but I must unvote you or else we lose? You respond defensively by denying the use of scare tactics and then four words later you repeat what I had called the scare tactic.

[Miztef]

I'm afraid that deathsauce's latest posts have made me even more suspicious also. I am happy with my vote on him, his desperate (vote me and lose) line makes me especially happy with lynching him.

Confirm vote: Deathsauce

unvote

[DeathSauce]

Thanks Miztef, completely unnecessary, and yet not unexpected.

Vollkan, unless you change your mind, it is impossible for us to lynch the actual scum in this game. You keep perceiving this as a "threat" but it is a statement of fact, if I am lynched the town will lose.

[Paradoxombie]

Paradoxombie, you asked a few questions of VD, happy with the answers you received?

I am pleased with the answers.

I believe DS is at lynch -1 now. I'm going to read through all of day 2 so far again and see if:
1. The suspicion/lynch is justified
and
2. If anyone on the wagon looks off to me

then I'll post my opinion of the entire situation. Before anyone hammers, they better post their reasoning in full and give some time for second thoughts.