Mini 1604 -- Zodiac Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #900 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:15 am

Post by RedCoyote »

Aries' Daily Horoscope:
Discipline and a solid plan are your friends today, Aries. Slow your approach and consider the consequences of your actions. This is the time to concentrate on what you need to get done and devise a plan to make it happen. There is restlessness in the air that might cause you to act hastily. Don't forget the old saying that says haste makes waste. This is an important lesson.


Aquarius' Daily Horoscope:
You might need to put on the brakes today, Aquarius. Your present trajectory isn't quite in line with the people and energy around you. Make sure you aren't stepping on other people's toes with your abrasive behavior. This is a day to consider a more disciplined approach. You might need to establish a better structure so you use your energy more efficiently in general.


Sagittarius' Daily Horoscope:
Getting your opinions out now may stir up the maelstrom even more, but ultimately it's for the best, Sagittarius. There is an explosive tone in the air right now that's difficult to ignore. You need your strong will to combat the abrasive forces at work today. You have the opportunity to initiate control over the situation. Other people might be too unsure of themselves to make a move.


Scorpio's Daily Horoscope:
Your plans meet with harsh opposition today, Scorpio. You've been going along at a slow and steady pace, but you will find that abrasive tension arises the more you try to force your will on others. Gridlock is quite likely due to the fact that there are strong forces coming to a head. Neither one of them is in the mood to yield now.


Virgo's Daily Horoscope:
Try not to get too frustrated by the indecisiveness that plagues you today, Virgo. The longer you stand still, the harder it will be to get moving. The key is to find a balance between planning and forcefulness. There's an incredible need for you make progress now. If you're met with resistance, you should probably just back off for now. Fighting won't yield positive results now.


Prodding CTD.





Vote Count 4 - 4


  • Not Voting (5) (♒ PeregrineV - ♐ Xayzeck - ♈ ToastyToast - ♏ CrashTextDummie - ♍ Iecerint)


With five alive, it takes three to lynch.
Current Deadline:
(expired on 2014-10-23 19:00:00)
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Post Post #901 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:17 am

Post by Iecerint »

I am still trying to evaluate Toasty v Pere. The only reason it ends up coming up as something like a "case" is that Pere hasn't really posted and it's hard not to see ill-intent whenever Toasty seems like he wants to engage with me. <_<
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Post Post #902 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:22 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

@Iece: the post about you getting fingered was a joke, as I said before quoting it, and is the only post "WTF" was referring to.

When you claimed hider, you made it sound like that was your actual role. And I don't think I'm the only one who thought this.
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Post Post #903 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:26 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

Between xayzeck's "idk what I'm doing" and peregrine's "I'm out of steam you guys!".........I will probably take a long mafia break if they turn out to be winning scum.
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Post Post #904 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:50 pm

Post by Iecerint »

Hide was the N1 Horoscope. Everyone in the game knew that someone had a Hide, unless the person who got it had happened to die. That's part of why I had a hard time figuring out how to crumb a hide target D2, though I might have come up with something if I hadn't been distracted during D2.

I knew that you were making a joke about fingering, but your quote context made it seem like you meant it as like "the cheery on top in my catalogue of Iec making filler posts," with the only "joke" aspect being that the nature of my filler was amusing or whatever.

I share your frustration with Peregrine/Xay.
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Post Post #905 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:51 pm

Post by Iecerint »

In post 599, RedCoyote wrote:
All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?


Day 2's Fortunate Horoscope (6)One-Shot Hide

Day 2's Unfortunate Horoscope (7)Bad Fortune

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the the second day phase.
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Post Post #906 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 1:53 pm

Post by Iecerint »

It doesn't mean that I'm town -- anyone can get the Hide -- but I definitely have the hide, unless you think I was gambiting that the hide player was already dead.

The part to evaluate is whether the way I have used the Hide indicates that I am scum. CTD has argued that I have used it suboptimally (because it would have been best to use it N2), but does not think the suboptimalness is scummy. I think the pattern of thinking about my ability that I have indicated in this thread, best illustrated in the circumstances under which it occurred to me to claim it, should make it relatively clear that I am town.
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Post Post #907 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 3:33 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

If possible I think we should make a list of all known fortunes/who had them. i mean this is probably endgame so I don't see how it hurts.

I haven't had any fortunes givne.
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Post Post #908 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:24 pm

Post by Iecerint »

I just checked. It looks like the first horoscope was to Gemini on page 17 in VC 12. Elyse was still alive at the time. This means that the horoscopes can't be coming from dead players.
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Post Post #909 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 5:24 pm

Post by Iecerint »

Unless a subset of the horoscopes are real or something.
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Post Post #910 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:32 pm

Post by PeregrineV »

In post 864, CrashTextDummie wrote:Not really, no. I don't accept "minis usually have 3 scum" as an argument. 13 player games usually have 3 scum. When the town has a significant power edge. This game doesn't have either. It's not hugely relevant anymore because we have to lynch anyway and either the game will end or not. But you too should have made your argument yesterday.


Aside from some special themed minis, I've never seen a 12 or 13 player game have anything other than 3.
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Post Post #911 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:42 pm

Post by PeregrineV »

In post 890, ToastyToast wrote:
In post 869, RedCoyote wrote:Aries' Daily Horoscope: Be careful about being manipulated by another person today, Aries. It's possible that someone is putting words in your mouth in order to get you to act a certain way. Don't fall into this trap. Be your own person and think for yourself. Your mind is susceptible and vulnerable now. Use your eyes and ears as a filter and don't let people unload their garbage on you.


Okay these are starting to make me nervous. If RC has been posting relevant fortunes throughout the game I will facepalm.


I just went back and read all mine. They still seem as generic as ever, but it is kind of funny when they are actually relevant to real life.
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Post Post #912 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:54 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

In post 909, Iecerint wrote:Unless a subset of the horoscopes are real or something.

I was referring to the good luck/bad luck power thingies
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Post Post #913 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:14 pm

Post by PeregrineV »

OK, caught up.

Pretty much where I'm at.

Toasty- Yes, I think Toasty is town. Since he replaced in he has been interacting with everyone, and pushing, poking and prodding to get reads and create discussion. I admit I'm partial to this style myself, but I can see his play as transparent and actively trying to solve the game.

CTD- I mostly tend to lean CTD town, but not for the same reason as Toasty. For the most part, I've not been feeling his reads until we came to Nacho. My biggest concern for CTD is that I feel like he has a town read on me, but that we have really interacted. This could be because we just finished a game as masons together and maybe he knows me well enough without asking all the questions, but that type of interaction is how I pick up a lot of my reads.

Xay- Mostly only susceptible because while I don't have a strong town read on him, it's because I feel Toasty & CTD are more town. But, Sal putting him as a scumread along with me early game has kept him in the townside of everything.

Iec- Sorry, bud, but I do think you're scum. I like your caution and keeping up with the horoscope powers, but it really bugs me that you didn't use your ability to confirm (or damn) someone prior to circumstances making it impossible for you to do so. And I'll admit it doesn't help that you're scumreading me without me really understanding why you have that read.

Discuss.
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Post Post #914 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:15 pm

Post by PeregrineV »

On the horoscopes, I only got the one I claimed (bad day1- no effect)
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Post Post #915 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:20 pm

Post by CrashTextDummie »

I am in very bad health and will likely spend the next couple of days in the hospital. I consequently haven't really thought about mafia the past days.

I have a doctor's appointment in a couple of hours and will be able to decide afterwards if I need to be replaced or not (depending on whether I need surgery today).

I'm very sorry I haven't given this game the attention it needs.
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Post Post #916 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:25 pm

Post by ToastyToast »

In post 915, CrashTextDummie wrote:I am in very bad health and will likely spend the next couple of days in the hospital. I consequently haven't really thought about mafia the past days.

I have a doctor's appointment in a couple of hours and will be able to decide afterwards if I need to be replaced or not (depending on whether I need surgery today).

I'm very sorry I haven't given this game the attention it needs.


:( Get well soon.
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Post Post #917 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:30 pm

Post by PeregrineV »

In post 915, CrashTextDummie wrote:I am in very bad health and will likely spend the next couple of days in the hospital. I consequently haven't really thought about mafia the past days.

I have a doctor's appointment in a couple of hours and will be able to decide afterwards if I need to be replaced or not (depending on whether I need surgery today).

I'm very sorry I haven't given this game the attention it needs.


Take care of you first.
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Post Post #918 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:52 pm

Post by Iecerint »

In post 913, PeregrineV wrote:OK, caught up.

Pretty much where I'm at.

Toasty- Yes, I think Toasty is town. Since he replaced in he has been interacting with everyone, and pushing, poking and prodding to get reads and create discussion. I admit I'm partial to this style myself, but I can see his play as transparent and actively trying to solve the game.

CTD- I mostly tend to lean CTD town, but not for the same reason as Toasty. For the most part, I've not been feeling his reads until we came to Nacho. My biggest concern for CTD is that I feel like he has a town read on me, but that we have really interacted. This could be because we just finished a game as masons together and maybe he knows me well enough without asking all the questions, but that type of interaction is how I pick up a lot of my reads.

Xay- Mostly only susceptible because while I don't have a strong town read on him, it's because I feel Toasty & CTD are more town. But, Sal putting him as a scumread along with me early game has kept him in the townside of everything.

Iec- Sorry, bud, but I do think you're scum. I like your caution and keeping up with the horoscope powers, but it really bugs me that you didn't use your ability to confirm (or damn) someone prior to circumstances making it impossible for you to do so. And I'll admit it doesn't help that you're scumreading me without me really understanding why you have that read.

Discuss.

This reads pretty much like point-for-point bullshit.

1. I can imagine reasons that someone might think that Toasty is town. However, "Toasty is trying to solve the puzzle" is the
opposite
of his playstyle this game. His playstyle this game is using rhetoric to support a position that he identifies ahead of time.

This reads like you're just glancing at his long walls, perceiving "Toasty is tryharding," and then assuming that he is puzzle-solving without actually reading his posts critically.

2. The CTD content is meta-based; can't really comment on that. I don't really recall CTD having a townread on Peregrine, but I can imagine Peregrine being more sensitive to this possibility than me. She really
shouldn't
given her own stated take on the setup (1 scum, Xay cleared), but w/e. I suppose she thought it was Xay last night, so maybe just not re-broached due to your relative absence.

3. CTD claimed to have roleblocked Xay last night, so Xay is extremely likely to be town. It is only possible that Xay is scum if a) he is scum with CTD or b) there are 2 scum and the other scum killed last night.

This interaction is probably the most important thing to considering in evaluating Xay given how little he has done today, so the fact that you totally ignored/missed it, similar to your point about Toasty, makes me think you have not read the game very carefully for one reason or another.

4A. Again, you are missing/ignoring that I have explained the full context for using my Hider action. You can very easily cross-reference my activity in this game during D2 (the only night when it was reasonable to use my Hide) with my activity on the site in general and confirm that I am not bullshitting.

And why the hell is non-optional use of an ability a scumtell, anyway? As scum I could "confirm" anyone in the game by lying about a hide target and then kill them immediately and avoid scrutiny due to this. Or I could just forego claiming Hider altogether, especially since someone (CTD I think) had just been like "well the Hider obviously used his/her ability yesterday hehe" immediately beforehand (i.e., so it was clear it would invite scrutiny).

4B. Main reasons to think you are relatively likely scum go way back to Salamance's kill D1 (the Elyse target over his stated suspects suggests his stated suspects may have included scumfriends, since he could just shoot his preferred target and take less scrutiny). Apart from that, the roleblock logic from CTD makes it more likely that at least one of you and Toasty are scum, hence my focus on the two of you.

I have said both of those things a gazillion times, so not sure why you do not understand that it is a thing.
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Post Post #919 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:57 pm

Post by Iecerint »

Not sure if just lazy, though.
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Post Post #920 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:00 pm

Post by Iecerint »

In post 3, RedCoyote wrote:
All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?


Day 1's Fortunate Horoscope (4)One-Shot Daykill

Day 1's Unfortunate Horoscope (9)Bad Fortune

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the the first day phase.

In post 599, RedCoyote wrote:
All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?


Day 2's Fortunate Horoscope (6)One-Shot Hide

Day 2's Unfortunate Horoscope (7)Bad Fortune

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the the second day phase.

In post 709, RedCoyote wrote:
All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?


Day 3's Fortunate Horoscope (2)One-Shot Roleblocker

Day 3's Unfortunate Horoscope (2)Post Restriction

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the the third day phase.

In post 818, RedCoyote wrote:
All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?


Day 4's Fortunate Horoscope (3)Bulletproof Vest

Day 4's Unfortunate Horoscope (3)Secret Admirer

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the fourth day phase.
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Post Post #921 (ISO) » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:04 pm

Post by Iecerint »

Salamance got the daykill.

I have the hide, unused.

CTD claimed the roleblock, targeted Xayzeck when a kill still occurred.
Nacho is inferred to have had the PR and been modkilled due to breaking it.

Vest/Loverize have not been claimed.

Of note, I couldn't use the Hide during N1. I learned that I got it N1, but couldn't use it til N2.
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Post Post #922 (ISO) » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:20 am

Post by PeregrineV »

In post 918, Iecerint wrote:
In post 913, PeregrineV wrote:OK, caught up.

Pretty much where I'm at.

Toasty- Yes, I think Toasty is town. Since he replaced in he has been interacting with everyone, and pushing, poking and prodding to get reads and create discussion. I admit I'm partial to this style myself, but I can see his play as transparent and actively trying to solve the game.

CTD- I mostly tend to lean CTD town, but not for the same reason as Toasty. For the most part, I've not been feeling his reads until we came to Nacho. My biggest concern for CTD is that I feel like he has a town read on me, but that we have really interacted. This could be because we just finished a game as masons together and maybe he knows me well enough without asking all the questions, but that type of interaction is how I pick up a lot of my reads.

Xay- Mostly only susceptible because while I don't have a strong town read on him, it's because I feel Toasty & CTD are more town. But, Sal putting him as a scumread along with me early game has kept him in the townside of everything.

Iec- Sorry, bud, but I do think you're scum. I like your caution and keeping up with the horoscope powers, but it really bugs me that you didn't use your ability to confirm (or damn) someone prior to circumstances making it impossible for you to do so. And I'll admit it doesn't help that you're scumreading me without me really understanding why you have that read.

Discuss.

This reads pretty much like point-for-point bullshit.

1. I can imagine reasons that someone might think that Toasty is town. However, "Toasty is trying to solve the puzzle" is the
opposite
of his playstyle this game. His playstyle this game is using rhetoric to support a position that he identifies ahead of time.

Except for the fact that I just finished Revolution Mafia with him, in which I had a guilty on SKOT, and pressed him on his SKOT read. He pretty much called me scum and ignored me, and most of his posts were empty bullshit. Here, there is content and NOT empty bullshit.

This reads like you're just glancing at his long walls, perceiving "Toasty is tryharding," and then assuming that he is puzzle-solving without actually reading his posts critically.

Then I'll pretty much place the onus on YOU to disabuse me of my read. He has pretty much interacted with and commented/questioned every player. And not in the same scum-way as the last game.

2. The CTD content is meta-based; can't really comment on that. I don't really recall CTD having a townread on Peregrine, but I can imagine Peregrine being more sensitive to this possibility than me. She really
shouldn't
given her own stated take on the setup (1 scum, Xay cleared), but w/e. I suppose she thought it was Xay last night, so maybe just not re-broached due to your relative absence.


I don't recall a distinct read on me from CTD, except maybe not liking a wagon at some point. But a quick ISO+CRTL+F has at least 2 posts where he townread me.
Explain "relative absence", and that whole last sentence- not sure I get what you are saying.


3. CTD claimed to have roleblocked Xay last night, so Xay is extremely likely to be town. It is only possible that Xay is scum if a) he is scum with CTD or b) there are 2 scum and the other scum killed last night.


Just like the tracker in newbie games- if the other one did it, then tracking someone to nowhere means nothing.

This interaction is probably the most important thing to considering in evaluating Xay given how little he has done today, so the fact that you totally ignored/missed it, similar to your point about Toasty, makes me think you have not read the game very carefully for one reason or another.

Do YOU think Xay is cleared?
I don't think I missed anything, I'm just taking the pessimistic view.

4A. Again, you are missing/ignoring that I have explained the full context for using my Hider action. You can very easily cross-reference my activity in this game during D2 (the only night when it was reasonable to use my Hide) with my activity on the site in general and confirm that I am not bullshitting.
Except that if you knew you would be out, you can submit your night action early. Pretty sure RC will not say "It's daytime, send it to me at night."

And why the hell is non-optional use of an ability a scumtell, anyway? As scum I could "confirm" anyone in the game by lying about a hide target and then kill them immediately and avoid scrutiny due to this. Or I could just forego claiming Hider altogether, especially since someone (CTD I think) had just been like "well the Hider obviously used his/her ability yesterday hehe" immediately beforehand (i.e., so it was clear it would invite scrutiny).

Claiming the hider made me NOT want to lynch you, on the off chance that you could hard-confirm town. I accepted your reasoning before, since hey, you can use it n3. But, you didn't (you claim), so now it's less about using the Hider ability and more about claiming it.

4B. Main reasons to think you are relatively likely scum go way back to Salamance's kill D1 (the Elyse target over his stated suspects suggests his stated suspects may have included scumfriends, since he could just shoot his preferred target and take less scrutiny). Apart from that, the roleblock logic from CTD makes it more likely that at least one of you and Toasty are scum, hence my focus on the two of you.

I have said both of those things a gazillion times, so not sure why you do not understand that it is a thing.

And that's fine. I would venture a guess Toasty is NOT scum with you, so there is that.
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Post Post #923 (ISO) » Wed Oct 22, 2014 11:23 am

Post by Iecerint »

I don't know Toasty meta. It is possible that there's a real contrast here from his scum games.

"Relative absence" because you have not participated in the game today until now.

I literally point out the possibility about the roleblocker you articulate in the text you quoted. You're wrong that it doesn't affect the probability of Xay being scum even in that case (as he can only be half as many of the scum slots), but yeah, this makes him other-than-cleared. As for the other, I am basically operating as if Xay is cleared because I think it is almost impossible to win if there are two scum right now given the loverize.

You do not flip with your Hide, so a Hider death would not be trackable. You normally get around this by crumbing your Hide target the day prior, but I couldn't think of a way to do this when the scum knew someone had just gotten a Hide, assuming they were paying attention. I might have figured something out if I'd paid more attention D2 to be fair, though. Side-note: Toasty's confusion about this, if not feigned, is probably a towntell, especially since Salamance got the horoscope daykill D1.

I specifically said in my Hide claim that I was claiming it because it was no longer a useful ability for town and by that point a negative utility town role (in the 2 scum universe). This is because using it last night had a 60% chance of killing me (hide behind 2 scum + 1 kill target, negligible risk of being the kill target), which would have ended the game outright. So, you apparently didn't read my reasoning very carefully. I only claimed Hider to help Dryfit read me.
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Iecerint
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Iecerint
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Post Post #924 (ISO) » Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:07 am

Post by Iecerint »

Xay, please post.

We may need an extension or replacement if CTD is unable to play for health reasons.

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