Mini 1604 -- Zodiac Mafia (Game Over)

[PeregrineV]

If it's 4:2, why is no-lynch bad again?

[PeregrineV]

Anyone home? I got an hour at work then might be able to get on in the next 5 hours after that. Maybe.

[Iecerint]

Caught up.

My biggest scumread would have to be Iec at this point.

@Iec

- Can you explain why you didn't confirm someone night2? I get that you thought StrangerCoug was town so didn't hide behind him, but why not behind me or another scumread? You could have made it pretty clear so that when you died we would know.

Read the last paragraph of my claim post.

I guess I can probably go a step farther and clarify why I had such a strong townread on StrangerCoug, since I think it might provide context. It's not WHY I thought it -- that part was obvious -- but it's relevant to why I had really strong opinions going into D3.

I got the Hide N1. I didn't use it last night because I would not flip with clarification that I had been a Hider (complicating crumbing it and using it as a weak investigation), and my only town read for confirming innocence was StrangerCoug, and I thought he was so obviously going to be kill that he wasn't safe to confirm as town by hiding behind.

I probably might have put more thought into crumbing it (or just claimed it outright, in hindsight), but I was visiting AP on the West Coast during D2, so I wasn't devoting as much time to my games as I might otherwise have. I remember because I remember voting for Aronis just before going to get on the plane to return.

The bottom line is that it was a play error, but not one that I could correct after I was back from the West Coast, since it was already night and I hadn't crumbed a hide target.

[Iecerint]

If it's 4:2, why is no-lynch bad again?

It isn't bad. It is basically the standard play, especially if there is not an obvious town player. CTD made it slightly less ideal by claiming, but she's scumread enough that it may not matter, and it's just one-shot, anyway.

The potential downside is that we could get a "fortunate" Daykill horoscope and scum could get it, giving them the win. The chance of this is pretty low, though, and has to be leveraged against any town-positive horoscope and the improved scumlynch probability.

CTD has also speculated that it may be 4:1 due to perceived lack of town power and argued that this means we should lynch, though the math still favors NL whenever there is an even number of players, anyway, so this is mostly a theory error on her part. But the extra random kill elements in this game does mess with that some, I guess.

[Iecerint]

I did entertain hide-crumbing a few times while I was at AP's, but I figured scum would probably be hunting for Hide crumbs since they knew someone had just gotten a Hide, which could just result in a free extra NK if they figured it out and it was on town. So I kept putting it off because I never had time to think about the perfect balance, and I didn't even have a target I wanted to try hiding behind. I also wouldn't flip as a Hider, so I couldn't 100% count on people putting the pieces together if it was too vague.

[Iecerint]

5:1 I mean*

[PeregrineV]

Caught up.

My biggest scumread would have to be Iec at this point.

@Iec

- Can you explain why you didn't confirm someone night2? I get that you thought StrangerCoug was town so didn't hide behind him, but why not behind me or another scumread? You could have made it pretty clear so that when you died we would know.

Read the last paragraph of my claim post.

I guess I can probably go a step farther and clarify why I had such a strong townread on StrangerCoug, since I think it might provide context. It's not WHY I thought it -- that part was obvious -- but it's relevant to why I had really strong opinions going into D3.

I got the Hide N1. I didn't use it last night because I would not flip with clarification that I had been a Hider (complicating crumbing it and using it as a weak investigation), and my only town read for confirming innocence was StrangerCoug, and I thought he was so obviously going to be kill that he wasn't safe to confirm as town by hiding behind.

I probably might have put more thought into crumbing it (or just claimed it outright, in hindsight), but I was visiting AP on the West Coast during D2, so I wasn't devoting as much time to my games as I might otherwise have. I remember because I remember voting for Aronis just before going to get on the plane to return.

The bottom line is that it was a play error, but not one that I could correct after I was back from the West Coast, since it was already night and I hadn't crumbed a hide target.

I saw that. But, unlike Sal using the dayvig, scum using the hider has no benefit. Or even claiming to have used the hider, really. However, claiming it but still having it decreases the likelihood of getting lynched (in a normal game).

[PeregrineV]

If it's 4:2, why is no-lynch bad again?

It isn't bad. It is basically the standard play, especially if there is not an obvious town player. CTD made it slightly less ideal by claiming, but she's scumread enough that it may not matter, and it's just one-shot, anyway.

The potential downside is that we could get a "fortunate" Daykill horoscope and scum could get it, giving them the win. The chance of this is pretty low, though, and has to be leveraged against any town-positive horoscope and the improved scumlynch probability.

CTD has also speculated that it may be 4:1 due to perceived lack of town power and argued that this means we should lynch, though the math still favors NL whenever there is an even number of players, anyway, so this is mostly a theory error on her part. But the extra random kill elements in this game does mess with that some, I guess.

I saw all of that.

On the odds part, randomly, town gets favored (more so early game, but still), and potential randomness can only play so much in deciding.

Saw the CTD 1 scum left theory. I'm also VT, but considering any of us can be PRs, I don't think that negates 9:3. And testing that is not high on my list at this point in time.

Considering you are my choice to lynch, would like to hear about why everyone else is not for the standard no lynch that our position calls for.

[PeregrineV]

I did entertain hide-crumbing a few times while I was at AP's, but I figured scum would probably be hunting for Hide crumbs since they knew someone had just gotten a Hide, which could just result in a free extra NK if they figured it out and it was on town. So I kept putting it off because I never had time to think about the perfect balance, and I didn't even have a target I wanted to try hiding behind. I also wouldn't flip as a Hider, so I couldn't 100% count on people putting the pieces together if it was too vague.

Yeah, maybe.....

Vote: No lynch

But if we get 2 more that want to lynch you, and I get on on time, I'll probably switch to you.

[CrashTextDummie]

What do you find disturbing?

Disturbing that you read (and continue to refer to) me as female.

[ToastyToast]

I am for no lynching I theory, but with our lazy ass town doing so isn't going to actually impact anything. Like, scum will just kill one of the more active players and we'll be left with people who aren't caught up in lylo.

[ToastyToast]

In theory*

[Iecerint]

I saw that. But, unlike Sal using the dayvig, scum using the hider has no benefit. Or even claiming to have used the hider, really. However, claiming it but still having it decreases the likelihood of getting lynched (in a normal game).

Hider has basically negative town utility right now, so I figure scum will discount my having it when they make their choice for a kill. So, I don't think it really affects the likelihood that it would "save" me. If anything, it would increase the chance of being lynched because some people had pointed out that it would have been optimal to use it earlier just before that.

I thought to claim it because I was struggling with why people wouldn't have realized so clearly that StrangerCoug was town + understanding the tendency to find post facto "omg he was so obvtown" claims to be suspect when it indeed wasn't obvious, so I thought of reasons why I had a more solid opinion going into today, and realized that it was relevant to my thinking about how to use my Hide during D2. After I realized that claiming it would be unlikely to affect NK logic, I decided to go ahead and put it out there to make it easier for people to read me.

[RedCoyote]

Aries' Daily Horoscope:

Feel free to go shopping for yourself, Aries. While you're at it, you might as well pick up some things for others, too. You're apt to be in tune with the pleasant spirit of the people around you. On the other hand, if they're being especially negative or cranky, don't hesitate to just go elsewhere. Unfortunately, that may be easier said than done.

Aquarius' Daily Horoscope:

Your coals have been smoldering for a while, and there is a great deal of smoke pouring from your blackened embers, Aquarius. The good news is that there's apt to be a great gust of wind today, acting as the catalyst that ignites the flames. You've provided the heat and the fuel. The missing element of air is finally coming your way, so be prepared. The fire is apt to heat up quickly.

Leo's Daily Horoscope:

This is one of those days when you will be walking along and all of a sudden hear a street performer playing music. Suddenly your feet start to move and soon you're dancing. You find yourself boogying down the rest of the road. It won't take much to get you grooving. Once you start, it may be hard for you to stop. Go with it!

Sagittarius' Daily Horoscope:

You're on a roll today, Sagittarius. Don't let other people's insecurities or shallow understanding about an issue get in the way of your progress. There's a distinct advantage to the way you approach things. Feel free to exert your will on those who need strong direction. If you're confident about the answer, don't be shy about saying so. If people don't like the way you're leading, they don't need to follow.

Scorpio's Daily Horoscope:

Water your plants today and make sure they're getting enough light, Scorpio. If you don't have any plants, take this opportunity to go to the nursery and pick up a couple for your home or office. Nourish the organic things in your life to help remind you of your own roots, which are extremely important for you right now. Sink deep into the Earth in order to understand the environment around you.

Virgo's Daily Horoscope:

Don't take things that don't belong to you, Virgo. Your penetrating eyes are apt to spot things that are easily pocketed, even though you know deep down that those things aren't meant for you to keep. Your imagination might try to convince you that it's OK to pull such sneaky maneuvers, and you may be tempted. Don't deceive yourself.

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Vote Count 3 - 4

• No Lynch (1) (
  ToastyToast
  - PeregrineV)
  CrashTextDummie (1) ( Dry-fit)
  Xayzeck (1) ( CrashTextDummie)
  Iecerint (1) ( ToastyToast)
  
  
  Not Voting (2) (
  PeregrineV
  - Xayzeck -
  Dry-fit
  -
  CrashTextDummie
  - Iecerint)

With six alive, it takes four to lynch.
Current Deadline:

(expired on 2014-10-10 21:15:00)

[Iecerint]

I am voting No Lynch.

[RedCoyote]

I'm not finding it, Iec. Could you point it out to me, please?

[Iecerint]

Needless to say, we should mass claim. I'm vanilla town. Order doesn't matter to me. If it indeed turns out that this is an all vanilla set up, I'd consider it a given that we are only looking for one more scum player and there would be even less reason to no lynch, IMO.

I'm also a VT

Gemini Blind didn't have me as a strong scum read. StrangerCoug actually had me in his town block. That's the people who were killed at night. Aronis also didn't have me as a strong scum read. The only player who died wanting me dead was Nacho.

I was referring to burn when I talked about Gemini, I believe. And it doesn't change the fact that Aronis died being one of the few to suspect you. Scum often make kills/lynches that are potentially troublesome for their slots, I don't think this changes that.

Toasty, I don't think your case against me is ill-intended, but it is very misguided. Most of your arguments, as well as your unwillingness to actually engage me on any of our opposed reads indicate to me a deep paranoia that's clouding your judgement:

I don't see a problem with being paranoid in mylo. I operate defensively, and listen to my gut first and foremost, so you aren't really enlightening me on the paranoia bit. It isn't clouding my judgement--its informing it.

The possibility of scum gaining powers is only scary if we are in lylo and the only way to get out of lylo (or mylo) is to lynch today (going by the previous assumption of 2 scum left, which was the basis for my argument). Iece's no lynch road plan actually results in two days where scum could get good luck (with 33% likelyhood on the last day) while lynching today has the potential to result in none. We'd have to lynch scum either today or tomorrow anyway and there is literally no question that lynching today gives us better odds to win.

Fair enough.

I believe you have yet to explain why Dry-fit is such a strong town read for you and why you disagree with my case against him. I would greatly appreciate it if you could set your suspicions of me aside for a second and actually talk to me about our disagreements. If not for your benefit, then for my own. Thank you.

....ok this is a mafia game last I checked I was supposed to push people. Is it a new system to just set that shit aside? I mean the people not providing content in this game may be suggesting so...

1) Regardless of the accuracy or consistency of his reasons, Dry-fit was the biggest proponent of the Salamance wagon. For some reason I get town credit for it, but he doesn't?
2) He has called out multiple people for lazy voting.
3) I find the progression of his read on PV to be very natural/authentic

If you are concerned that scum will kill the perceived-towniest player, surely everyone ranking the players from towniest to least-townie is the tryhardiest way to make that happen.

Scum are going to do that shit regardless. Information is

everything

in mafia, and that outweighs whatever scum may or may not do. Also I'm about 95% positive scum will kill me, and with that in mind I'd like people to listen to what I have to say now and not find reasons to ignore it. Shoving it in their face is the best way to do that, and I would expect other town to feel the same way.

Are you suggesting we all pretend to be scummy as fuck to confuse the scum team into killing themselves?
It would explain your gameplay this game but seems

quite

unlikely.

CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

But StrangerCoug and Nacho are dangerous players with "town rally call" playing styles that get night killed not for their performance but their influence and potential late-game (yes, I know Nacho was mod-killed, but I think scum was going after him for that reason). Also there is no way scum

wasn't

pushing the nacho wagon, and let's not ignore that or think that "oh i'm considering it but my reads aren't changed by it" is a valid reaction.

In other news, where the f is xayzeck?
And peregrine catch up soon, please. This isn't the time for continued passivity.

Vote: No Lynch

[RedCoyote]

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Final Day 3 Vote Count

• No Lynch (2) ( Iecerint - PeregrineV)
  
  CrashTextDummie (1) ( Dry-fit)
  Xayzeck (1) ( CrashTextDummie)
  Iecerint (1) ( ToastyToast)
  
  Not Voting (1) ( Xayzeck)

With six alive, it takes four to lynch.

With the deadline hit, there's no successful lynch and an end to Day 3.

Please submit all your night actions, if you have any, before the end of the night phase.

New

Deadline:

(expired on 2014-10-14 07:15:00)

[RedCoyote]

All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?

Day 4's Fortunate Horoscope (3)

Bulletproof Vest

Day 4's Unfortunate Horoscope (3)

Secret Admirer

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the fourth day phase.

[RedCoyote]

Dry-fit,

Townie

, was killed on N3.

---

Vote Count 4 - 0

• Not Voting (5) ( PeregrineV - Xayzeck - ToastyToast - CrashTextDummie - Iecerint)

With five alive, it takes three to lynch.

New

Deadline:

(expired on 2014-10-23 19:00:00)

[CrashTextDummie]

Xayzeck did not perform the kill and should be considered clear.

Awaiting Iece's report.

[Iecerint]

Hmm. Secret Admirer is not very good. Even if a scum who got it or was targeted gets lynched, it's a scum win unless the Hide or Block stops the kill.

I think we should only fake-vote. When we have 3/5 fake-votes and everyone confirms his fake-vote, we each get a chance to indicate if the target is loverized. If it is...

well, I guess we still have to lynch them in that case, come to think of it. So maybe it doesn't really change anything. We just have to hope the abilities can save us in such a case.

But it's possible that they could both be town with hide (if I was targeted) or the block, so it's still possible to win in that case.

[CrashTextDummie]

You did not use your hide? Run me through that thought process, please.

[Iecerint]

The probability of my hide ending the game with a scum win outright was 60% (can't hide behind scum, can't hide behind NK target, the chance of their targeting me is basically 0%). I didn't think through the ramifications of the nympho role very carefully.

Your claim means that if Xayzeck is scum, you would have to be his buddy. You could also be scum with non-Xayzeck. If you are town, the scum have to be PereV and Toasty from my POV.

[CrashTextDummie]

Except there is almost certainly only one scum left. I take it you disagree?