Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Aegor]

Why would I lynch uncertainly when I have what I would consider guaranteed scum?

[Aegor]

If we don't lynch WW, a nightkill might end the game.

1 WW
2 Maf
3 Town


We lynch a townie, then 1 WW, 2 Maf, 2 Town. Worst-case scenario, WW shoots town. Then 1 WW, 2 Maf, 1 Town. Maf win.

We lynch Maf, then 1 WW, 1 Maf, 3 Town. Worst-case scenario, WW shoots town. Then 1 WW, 1 Maf, 2 Town.

[Aegor]

I fail to see why I should feel compelled not to pursue a really strong Maf candidate simply because of the chance of a NK, which could not end the game if we nailed scum anyway.

[Paschendale]

Okay, cool. Aegor is claiming scum. Awesome.

[Not_Mafia]

@aegor Fuzzy is alive because wolf hunting

[Aegor]

@aegor Fuzzy is alive because wolf hunting

Let us end that, yes?

[Not_Mafia]

I will lynch Fuzzy or Riddleton

[Bins]

Aegor, I don't think Not_Mafia is town at all. Do you?

[Bins]

Riddleton's V/LA ends tomorrow...

[Bins]

Btw, if we lynch mafia, the chance we lose the most useful/towniest town goes up. Especially with NM being in the situation he's in.


Can we please just get rid of the damn night kill?

[Aegor]

Problem: I do not think NM is a wolf as much as I think fuzzy is a maf.

Do you mind linking me to the case? I remember many posts stating that "it made sense" that NM is a wolf, but do not remember that many reasons. I will also ISO him.

[Aegor]

And no one is an MVP here, so I am unconcerned with the NK.

[Bins]

Alright, brace yourselves.

This is going to be PoE then backed up by things that will make sense and blow all of your minds.

Spoiler: Why Y'all are not Howling at the Moon

Fuzzybutternut

- Because our lovely Seer said so.

Riddleton

- Because Desperado claimed the fake Seer guilty on him. And while I understand that that might be the best gambit ever, I don't think it's a gambit that Desperado would have taken.

Klick

- Desperado ALSO fakeclaimed an innocent on Klick - that again, already makes me less likely to believe that Klick is the werewolf.

Here's where it starts to get interesting. Thinking about why Desperado claimed, it makes it almost impossible in my mind that Riddleton and Klick are the last WW. Desperado probably fakeclaimed thinking he was TOAST because of either a) the wagon yesteryday b) the fact they didn't kill the seer. He need to claim first and he needed to claim strong, hopefully managing to pull the kill of Riddleton before he died to make things better for WWs.

But for Desperado to y'know, sacrafice his entire wolfy life, he needed to have a partner that was in a good position.

Paschendale or Not_Mafia. And Not_Mafia was definitely in the better position of the two.

Paschendale

- I'm townreading Paschendale now. Not mafia and not werewolf. This is not based on any interaction (maybe the giant flashwagon on him), but many how he's reacting to things now. I don't think Paschendale is the last werewolf, I really don't. I think he'd be more observant of the seer claims and trying to push a WW lynch on someone else.

Something that Not_Mafia is currently attempting to do.

Not_Mafia

- This may sound silly, but I really do believe that Not_Mafia would have been the only person to want to kill Unsight. Heck, Unsight was being WW read by Wicked and being read as the partner to Bulge. Not_Mafia stated he had figured out who the seer was, and Unsight definitely was a seer kill. For him to come in the next day and say, "Yeah, I thought it was Unsight" is basic addition. You can also tell with Desperado's "I thought it was Bins" that there was conflict between the two WWs as well. Not_Mafia is the ONLY person who would have killed Unsight. And no, I don't think this is framing.

Also Desp and NM probably had it planned that if there was a CC that caught them, N_M needed to bus immediately.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[Bins]

Pasch also mentioned ISO-ing Not_Mafia brought him to scumread him.

[Bins]

And no one is an MVP here, so I am unconcerned with the NK.

I am. Because chances are WW, if we lynch Maf, will not kill the next most suspicious person because they have to fight in LYLO.

[Aegor]

Unless Pasch can tell me why, I do not care that his ISO read of NM led to a scumread. Again, there seems to be no case. Your own scumread stems from a flawed and tenuous night kill analysis.

I am more concerned about NM's reaction to the wagon on him.

[Bins]

And the fact I don't see how anyone else can be the damn WW.

[Bins]

I don't know what's flawed about it.

[Aegor]

I am. Because chances are WW, if we lynch Maf, will not kill the next most suspicious person because they have to fight in LYLO.

So? There is not that much consensus on scumreads outside of NM and fuzzy anyway. If we manage to lynch the WW, we will have two days of lylo, one of those against a coordinated pair. Neither seems self-evidently better to me.

[Aegor]

And the fact I don't see how anyone else can be the damn WW.

PoE down to a single candidate? Surely you know better.

I don't know what's flawed about it.

Can you prove to me that Unsight was a Seer-seeking kill?

[Bins]

Who do you think Fuzzy's partner is?

[Bins]

1) Unsight had lots of suspicion on her.
2) Despardo's last comment.

[Bins]

I'm going to a party tonight (my cousin is turning 22, I'll probs be drunk), so I won't really be around much.

Seriously, be smart about this. I don't give two shits if you think I'm scum or not. I'm

guaranteed

not Werewolf, meaning SOMEONE out there can still kill something. If we lynch WW today, you can lynch me tomorrow for all I care, but I'm not the correct lynch today.

Riddleton is not a werewolf.

I'm almost certain him fucking up the number of WWs in this game was genuine.

[Aegor]

NM, talk to me. Tell me why I should not hammer you.

[Not_Mafia]

Because Fuzzy and Riddleton are safer lynches