Mini 441 - Flavourless Mafia. Game Over!

[someone2]

Simple, there was not a lot of players not voting for Bob. I chose the person who was the most reserved.

[StallingChamp]

A little more activity would be nice. I know this is a weekend, but if the activity doesn't pick up my Tomorow or Tuesday, I may impose a deadline.

[The Fonz]

@ Xyzzy and Streeflo: Woah! Chill the hell out! Even if you do find someone2's explanation unsatisfactory, a claimed cop is not the play for today.

I'd say cops with variant sanities would be incredibly unlikely in a mini normal.

Personally, I can buy someone2 as a very newbish cop.

You sure about that? And here I was thinking the opposite.

Yes. Variant sanities are far more likely in large games, and themes, than in mini and normal games respectively. Short of an open or newb game, this is pretty much the setting in which non-sane cops are least likely.

It seems to me increasingly likely that you are SK, or

maybe

scum, and realising that with someone2 claiming, you are very likely to be today's lynch, and figured your only avenue was to discredit the claimed cop. Unlucky. Regardless of slight problems with Someone2's actions, we ought not to be lynching a claimed cop sans counterclaim. It's noteworthy that you still haven't unvoted.

Vote: Streeflo

I believe that's L-2.

Incidentally, I'm personally not happy with SC basically confirming that someone2 had an information role there, but we'll discuss this post-game.

[Streeflo]

Vote: Streeflo

I believe that's L-2.

Screw this. I'm claiming now before xyzzy or someone piles onto my SK bandwagon and gets me lynched.

Guess what everyone. I'm a cop too.

1st night: guilty on bird1111
I chose him because I wanted to choose the top posters, and I thought maybe Primate would die in the night.

2nd night: guilty on undo.
bird1111 turned out to be innocent. If someone2 is a sane cop, I'm probably paranoid.

I breadcrumbed an insane load starting from day 2. Does my vote and lack of belief on someone2 seem reasonable now?

[Streeflo]

I'm not jumping on someone2 because of the mod mistake. I do find it interesting that he would know about the Night One delay if he was a mafia fake claming a cop.

What was your result on Aimee. Innocent again? Your sanity is not guaranteed you know.

You realize there is a GF right.

Slight breadcrumbs, and the thing about the sanity to Fonz.

Guess what. I also got my investigation result late from Stalling Champ.

Unvote; Vote: xyzzy

Someone2 is a lynch for another day.

[The Fonz]

Hmmmm. I'm going to need to think this one over. It strikes me that if both are telling the truth, a paranoid streeflo makes more sense than an insane one (two cops with useful investigations seems like an overpowered town, unless the scum have been given something pretty nasty as well). Certainly, I think an insane Streeflo and a truth-telling sane someone2 would mean that was it as far as power roles went.

Of course, there is also the possibility of one or other lying. I don't think both are. It does seem strange that both managed to investigate people who happened to have already gotten nightkilled.

Unvote

for now.

[undo]

Well, Streeflo says he investigated me and got a guilty result - and I'm not dead yet. Now, either he is an insane cop or he is a paranoid cop. Or he is lying.

And someone? Is he lying?

What a dilemma.

[The Fonz]

Well, Streeflo says he investigated me and got a guilty result - and I'm not dead yet. Now, either he is an insane cop or he is a paranoid cop. Or he is lying.

Well yes, the fact that he got a guilty on a

confirmed

innocent made that pretty obvious. That said, insane/paranoid cop is a pretty antitown players' claim.

[The Fonz]

EBWODP: Pretty CONVENIENT antitown players' claim.

[undo]

But what about his result on me?

[The Fonz]

Well, if he's got a guilty on a CONFIRMED innocent, and you're innocent, you should be

expecting

him to get a guilty on you, because he has to be either paranoid or insane, if he's telling the truth. The only way you'd know he's lying is if you're scum/SK.

[undo]

Therefore we know he isn't lying?

[The Fonz]

No. We don't know for definite that he is. Well, I don't, you might, but that would require you to be antitown, as outlined above.

Basically, when a scum fake-claims, they ought pretty much never to report a result which suggests an innocent is guilty, unless that lynch wins them the game. It will get them vigged that night or lynched the next day beyond a shadow of a doubt. So, they have three options:

Declare a guilty on their scumbuddy to make themselves look town, hopefully keeping them alive to endgame.

Declare an innocent on an player not part of your group.

Declare an innocent on a dead player.

The problem with the first is if anything whatsoever happens to incriminate you, you probably lose the game. The problem with the second is a) eventually you either run out of innocents, or at the very least raise suspicion by never finding any scum and b) instant death if you confirm a member of the other antitown group (SK if you're scum, scum if you're SK). With the third, you give the town no information, but this of course is precisely what the scum want to do, so it looks incredibly suspicious to keep happening to have investigated whoever got NKed.

Basically, it's often possible to confirm a claimed cop as a liar by his results, but never as a truthteller.

[undo]

But if Streeflo is lying and is scum, he has risked his claim on me, because he doesn't know for sure if I'm pro-town. Right?

[The Fonz]

True. But put your self in the position of Streeflo-as-scum. He can't report no-result, I think he was almost certain to get lynched if he claimed to have investigated two dead players, and so if he's scum, he had to declare a result on someone still alive. If you're not his scumbuddy, then you being SK is a risk he just had to take. At the very worst, it increases the chances of him avoiding the lynch today.

[undo]

Well, Streeflo-as-scum is about to achieve his goal, then.

What shall we do?

[The Fonz]

What do YOU think you ought to do? You can't rely on me telling you, you can't know I'm not scum, nor I you (I'm inclined to believe you're town, but that's not the same thing). On top of the fact that I'm not actually sure myself. Having both of my two top scum candidates for the day claim cop has thrown me somewhat.

[xyzzy]

One of them is probably lying.

I suspect streeflo, simply because he's been more scummy.

A lot of big coincidences have occured if they're both telling the truth.

If streeflo is a mafia member, then undo is almost definitely the GF.

I say we lynch Streeflo.

[undo]

What do YOU think you ought to do? You can't rely on me telling you

We need to be a whole to win over the scum, no? And I'm inclined to believe you're town too.

If streeflo is a mafia member, then undo is almost definitely the GF.

Why is that?

[xyzzy]

Why is that?

The GF shows up town if investigated; thus, by an insane cop, they show up guilty.

[Streeflo]

Um guys. If you look back, I think it would make perfect sense thinking I was a cop.

First day Primate claimed to be a cop getting a guilty on someone, and I was lyk Oo.

Then someone2 claims cop and says he got his investigation late. I BOLDED that statement and pointed out how interesting that was, seeing how the same thing happened to me.

I did not COUNTERCLAIM someone2 because I think I am probably paranoid or insane. Various sanities make perfect sense.

The Fonz pointed out how there would be no different sanity in a mini game. I contradicted that flat out and said I'm not so sure about that.

The only suspiscion most of you have on me is the innocent SK comment I made at the beginning of the day. Xyzzy jumped on that comment instantly, and now wants to lynch me despite my claimed cop and various breadcrumbs.

I have no idea why undo is "definitely the GF". I don't see the connection.

[The Fonz]

Why is that?

The GF shows up town if investigated; thus, by an insane cop, they show up guilty.

What does that have to do with him actually being the GF though? Since the premise of the 'undo is godfather' thing was if Streeflo were not, in fact, an insane cop but a scummer.

[The Fonz]

The Fonz pointed out how there would be no different sanity in a mini game. I contradicted that flat out and said I'm not so sure about that.

I said it was pretty much the least likely type of game to have variant sanities. Not that it was impossible. That post, at the time, looked like a desperate attempt to undermine someone2 in any way possible. In any case, I'm still not actually convinced there are variant sanities in this game.

The only suspiscion most of you have on me is the innocent SK comment I made at the beginning of the day. Xyzzy jumped on that comment instantly, and now wants to lynch me despite my claimed cop and various breadcrumbs.

Well, there was also your hysterical 'this isn't supposed to be about me, it's supposed to be about someone2!' reaction to being pressured. Trying to tell the town it shouldn't be pressuring you and instead demanding we focus our entire attention on someone2 looked hella scummy- even more so when he claimed cop. Also, it's not unknown for scum to set up a claim.

[xyzzy]

Why is that?

The GF shows up town if investigated; thus, by an insane cop, they show up guilty.

What does that have to do with him actually being the GF though? Since the premise of the 'undo is godfather' thing was if Streeflo were not, in fact, an insane cop but a scummer.

If Streeflo is lying, a teammate who would show up town is a good person to claim being a target.

Otherwise, someone could say, "Wait, no, I'm a miller! You're lying!"

[Streeflo]

Well, there was also your hysterical 'this isn't supposed to be about me, it's supposed to be about someone2!' reaction to being pressured.

I didn't want to claim a cop this early, plus someone2 was being so scummy it was frustrating. What can I say now? Congratulations town, if someone2 is indeed telling the truth, you've just forced two cops into claiming.

If Streeflo is lying, a teammate who would show up town is a good person to claim being a target.

Otherwise, someone could say, "Wait, no, I'm a miller! You're lying!"

Wait xyzzy, weren't you just calling me out as SK a few posts ago? Why am I suddenly a mafia member now with undo as GF?
I think xyzzy is just searching for a reason to get me lynched.