Mini 443 - Tapioca Mafia - Game over!!

[Khelvaster]

[quote="kabenon007"]No, being suspicious and wanting to see someone lynched are two entirely different things.
[quote]


It's a question of conviction. I feel that MF and d8p are very strongly mafia. Earwig I feel is mafia too, but I have a few doubts about him--there is nothing as direct as that linking d8p and MF.

[Copp├â┬®lia]

@Kab- we'll miss you, but what an awesome opportunity! I look foward to playing with you in the future.

@Khel- fine. Based on what? Sum up your cases to me, the ones built on something other than your feelings. Doesn't have to be lengthy, just a summation based on facts and reasoning will do.

[Ripley]

@Khel- fine. Based on what? Sum up your cases to me, the ones built on something other than your feelings. Doesn't have to be lengthy, just a summation based on facts and reasoning will do.

This is just what I'd like to see too.

[beanbagboy]

:goodposting: Bob, I can tell you're trying to be nice with the Khel thing and all, but you're being very accusative towards him while refusing to vote for him (as of now).

[MightyFireball]

Good luck to Kabenon with his jazz trumpet endeavor.

there is nothing as direct as that linking d8p and MF

Khel, are you going by the "connection" that Earwig pointed out? If so, then I really can't see your case. I'm pretty sure d8p and myself have satisfactorily disproved the connetion. However, if you have other evidence, that's another story.

[Khelvaster]

Here are my cases against the three accused.

MightyFireball: At first, he seemed like a townie who just didn't contribute much (either had RL stuff, other games, or couldn't find anything noteworthy.) That's fine. The problem comes when first he made a big case against d8p because of d8p's "I didn't have anything good to post, so I didn't post often." MightyFireball says this is bad, but then, a few days later, he uses this exact defense. The quotes causing this contradiction were:

MightyFireball wrote:
I'm sorry I haven't posted in a little while, but I really didn't have much to contribute and didn't want to make it seem like I was posting without content.

and

In fact, having fewer posts is probably as bad or worse than having more with little information in them.

When I confront him, he goes into a really confusing tirade. After I finally disentangle his statements, he claims I disentangled them wrong. I decided to conede that point to him because it seemed nobody else was really taking his hypocrisy seriously. He doesn't contribute anything after that until Earwig resurrects and accuses him and d8p of scumchatting.

The scumchat quotes seemed clearly scummy when put next to one another, and MF explains this all as a coincidence. He then does something crazy which I can only think of to divert attention towards me--he says,

Khel, could you give a post number where d8p denies this? Thanks.

. When MF scumtalked with d8p, he did it discreetly. Flat-out asking someone who suspects you as scum for a defense seems...weird, to say the least.



d8p--My main problem with d8p stems from the scumchat with MightyFireball. He also has some issues with OMGUS, especially in his later posts. The accusations of people flip-flopping was also wierd--isn't it good for the town that people are able to be convinced that townies are really townies?


Earwig--This is a little trickier. Earwig went out of his way to incriminate people only once, and that was when suspicion first started falling upon him. He brought that scumchat out of darkness, which made him seem like he was contributing. However, he never followed up on this damning piece of evidence. The scumchat had been posted for several days before EW saw it--nobody else noticed. I have the feeling that if you know who's scum, you can more easily tell when they are talking to each other. He revealed the scumchat hoping it would shed suspicion from him when we lynch MF or d8p, because he would have led to that.


My case is for MF first over d8p because the combination of factors implicating MF mean that even if the scumchat was wrong, the fact that there were so many other things going against him pretty much ensure that he'll be scum.



Was that enough analysis for you, copella?

[MightyFireball]

Flat-out asking someone who suspects you as scum for a defense seems...weird, to say the least.

Khel, I wasn't asking you to defend me against your suspicions, I was asking you to provide an example of something you said. You said, in your accusation post, that d8p had denied the accusation. I had not seen any such post. Therefore, I was asking you for an example of what you had said. I wasn't asking you to defend me from yourself. That

would

be weird.

He doesn't contribute anything after that until Earwig resurrects and accuses him and d8p of scumchatting.

I would hope that I had contributed something in 8 pages of text. Here is an example of my analysis of d8p's posts. I view this as something that has been helpful.

Ooook. I went through each of d8P's posts, in an attempt to find a link between him and Khelvaster. After looking through them, I'm starting to think there isn't much of a link. D8P has made a total of 8 posts, which I will now highlight.
1. Random votes Shadyforce

2. Comments that the pace of the game has picked up since he last played, but that the content may have gone down. Points out that no one has three votes, with only Kabenon007 and Bob voting for pickemgenius.

3. Unvotes Shadyforce, makes his first speech about why he dislikes posting much on day 1. He then defends the supposed inconsistency by Khelvaster as pointed out by others. However, and I find this a little odd, he still put a FoS on him.

4. Says that random bandwagons are normal on day 1 and says that pointing out that the bandwagon has shifted quickly from one player to another doesn't help, yet forgives Khalvaster for doing just that, saying that it was a newbie mistake. Votes me for lack of content.

5. Repeats and explains his dislike of posting on day 1 because he could end up defending someone that isn't on his side, then have to defend himself for it later. This, he reasons, is more of a trouble than it's worth. He then repeats his suspicion of me.

6. He apologizes for his discrediting of my analysis of Khelvaster, saying that mild attacks are worrying to him because it seems to him that the attacker and the attackee are in cahoots.

7. Tells bob he agrees with Anthrax's article on how to be a good townie, tells BBB that not all day one posts are valuable, contrary to what BBB said, then once again explains his apparent inactiveness. He then responds to what BBB thought was a lack of precision in his accusations of me. He says that he doesn't understand why BBB thinks he's hypocritical because BBB claimed he showed a lack of interest in the game, due to his low post count. He then goes on to say that BBB is consistently misinterpreting his posts. He rounds all this off by confirming his vote on me.

8. Compliments Aimee's analysis, then makes the call that Aimee and Ripley are town and I am scum.

The main suspicious thing, to me, in all of this is post number three. I don't really get exactly why d8p defends Khelvaster, only to put a FoS on him. A clarification on that would be greatly appreciated. Other than that, d8p never really went against Khelvaster. Another time that Khelvaster is mentioned is in his fourth post. He says that pointing out the shift in bandwagons is not helpful, but forgives Khelvaster for doing it because he is new. There really isn't enough here to make a link between the two.

The another thing I'm a little concerned about at the moment is that d8p didn't follow up on his suspicions of BBB that were sited in post number 7. This may be his style, or he may just not have anything to follow up on. That post was really reprimanding BBB for his bad analysis of d8p's post, so there's probably nothing to follow up.

I've also provided several defense posts for myself and others when I felt they were necessary. Examples of this include posts 160, 170, 201, 219, and 240. Also, there was the WIFOM/reverse psychology thing that I brought up against BBB. I don't really get where you got the idea that I hadn't contributed anything.

[Khelvaster]

How much of your "analysis" was both useful and original? Also, I believe you did the d8p thing after EW came out--correct me if I'm wrong.

[Ectomancer]

HungryJoe replaces Kabenon007

[pickemgenius]

Hey Hungry!

Analyze this game!


Here's to hoping you're active!

[HungryJoe]

Ah, I will be analyzing this game, either now or soon.

And I'm fairly active, at least so far I am. =) I'll be back later! (Also, hey Coppelia!)

[Copp├â┬®lia]

*Bob waves* Joe! I'm quite pleased to see you join this game. I'm looking foward to your input.

[HungryJoe]

Thanks, Coppelia! Is that because you like my input, or I'm just easy to read? ; )

Anywho, had to leave in the middle of taking notes while reading through, so I'll be back later (bleh.) with the promised post. Lots of reading to catch up on in both games I just replaced into. =)

[Copp├â┬®lia]

Maybe it's just because I find your avatar sexy*.








(*no, that's not it.)

[HungryJoe]

Alriiiighty then, well, I guess it's about time I handed over my thoughts, then.

First off: Kabenon was freakin' awesome, as far as I can tell. I'm sorry that I couldn't replace someone else so that I could play with him. =) I actually kind of doubt that I'll be as helpful as Kab, but I'll give it a go.

Concerning innocents:

Actually, in this game, I'm on the fence about a lot of you. The one and only guy that I am really firm about being pro-town is Ripley. I will agree that some of you seem quite pro-town also, but I'm not yet convinced entirely, and Ripley just seems to me very townie. (That could change, of course, but for now...) He comes down on Earwig (who is, I'll admit, quite scummy) for good reasons in addition to the lurking, and sticks to it, something I can appreciate.
Although I do actually lean a little towards d8p being town, I'm not sure of putting him in this category. His defenses were fairly solid on the points that mattered, I thought, and as for the "d8p circular logic" scumtell-thing (wherein he sated against mild attacks, then he and MFB mildly attacked each other), I just don't buy it. He doesn't post too often, but his posts are good, and thus, I don't really hold it against him. Still, I'm not totally in yet, so... meh.

Concerning those who smell of scumliness:

MightyFireball: Honestly, I find MFB to be quite, quite scummy. He makes a lot of posts, with little or no original content, and pursues attacks against d8p, which are pretty easily discarded by d8p, but MFB continues anyways it seems like, not wanting to look like he thinks d8p isn't guilty now? I also find very little in any of MFB's defenses very concrete, and badly worded in some cases to boot, almost as though they were made just to confuse, not to defend. He then also makes some interesting posts about post content that are pretty clearly contradictory, and then seems to just muddle it all up when asked for clarification, and blame it on Khel. I think MFB just wants to survive through tonight.
Earwig: This one's pretty plain as to why the scummy note. As my predecessor before me, I think Earwig's pretty dang scummy. He hops on only to "go along" and make sporadic offenses, making no defense for himself other than shifting the incriminations to other people (d8p/MFB, in particular.) This is just trying to incriminate d8p for d8p's

own reasoning.

This is just plain stupid, I think. It's obvious to me he wants to remain out of the spotlight and be lurky. I am willing to give a chance here, but only if something radical comes up. Something reaaally radical.
Khelvaster:Despite all of Khel's inconsistencies, poorly constructed offenses/defenses(or lack thereof), appeal to emotion once or twice, a couple of WIFOMs, the poorly placed 'didn't want you to know I'm really a noob' defense on page FIVE, and his extremely overdefensiveness and overly dramatic flair, I've got nothin' against Khel. Unfortunately, that's a whole lot. =b I honestly thought that if he were going to pull the "I'm a noob" as a townie, he would have done it before page 5, and not just as a defense to allay all suspicion. I think he claims it, and then tries to play to it more, a little at a time, to look better. I also think that he is a newbie, just not as much as he wants us to think he is at this stage. I've basically come down to the conclusion that he's either fairly newbie scum, or just a really passionate and overdramatic newbie townie.
shadyforce: The last, and least suspicious of my scum list. All I've really seen of shady is that he wants to bandwagon all over the lurkers' arses, and keeps trying to reinforce/call people to his rallying flag of "Kill all lurkers!" I think maybe I just find him scummy because I think that's a really bad policy, but nonetheless, I still find it a very disagreeable thing at best.

And the rest:

Shanba: I'm having a hard time reading Shanba, because of little posting, and less content. He posts at first about bw'ing, then hops on a bandwagon, then disappears for ages. I see little helpful from Shanba, so I lean a little bit more towards scummy with him.

BBB: Now here's kind of an interesting fellow. He's the only man who really seems to first ignore, then defend, and maybe even support Khel from time to time. This seems to be mostly just seeing the good side of what Khel's saying, but also maybe buying a bit of Khel's noob story? He attacks Coppelia over very little, in fact, what really wasn't even there. Moves on to incriminate d8p, and defend MFB. But wait, in a post, it seems that he both dismisses d8p as being sort of silly, then votes for d8p, I think. I need to re-read on that one, but that seems ridiculous to me. He basically is defending those I find scummy, so by association, of course I see him a little bit that way. But also, I think I see him as more playing the Devil's Advocate here, and am not necessarily bound on him being scummy.

pickemgenius: Terse, but pretty solid. Little to say, but doesn't need to say that much. kind of a low post count, and not too many words, but he does pop in now and again, and stonewalled Khel's attack against him. I'm completely neutral here, but it's hard to say with so little of his arguments in evidence.

Aimee/Coppelia: Sorry to lump you together, but I see you basically the same. You're both solid, intelligent players who make a lot of good point, and tend to stand where the ground is firm, and give your reasoning to boot. The main differences, however, are in that Aimee has not posted very much, and what she has was mostly just go-overs or summaries of what's already happened. Some thoughts and theories, but not too much. Coppelia's been involved in a lot of scuffles, but is pretty reasonable and solid, but not above suspicion. I agree with the anti-lurkerkilling here, and find little from either of them that I would say is suspicious. Still, I could see either one of them playing as a mafia member with a pro-town facade. Until that's proven/evidenced somehow, I'm gonna stick with both of them being slightly pro-town.

[Aimee]

Hi Joe! You just replaced into a game I got nightkilled in (Mini 428: Sicilian).

[HungryJoe]

Oop, sorry, should have separated some of those paragraphs. Anywho, that's my lowdown on my thoughts of the moment, totally influencable given the proper amount of reasoning and evidence.

Of scum, I think a MFB/Earwing/Khel combination is fairly plausible, but not too tightened down on that one yet. I could possibly see a Khel/d8p/? however, seeing as if Khel is a newbie mafia, he made the mistake of slightly defending d8p and some such earlier on (I don't remember exactly what it was, I'm tired right now, and always a bit foggy after my first read-over of a long forum.), but I may allay that for now, as it doesn't seem too liekly to me. Shadyforce/Earwig/Shanba I could see, actually. It would be annoying, since they just bandwagon and then lurk, but if it wins, they still win, cheap or not, I guess. =\ I'm not saying any of these are likely, just the ones that struck me potentially. I'll have to wait for more info to really say anything definite.

I'm not including quotes or such on that, it's really *just* my feelings and thoughts on my first go-over. No vote, gonna wait a bit to get a feel for the game, these are my initial reactions.

In conclusion, I'm gonna slap down

FoS's: MightyFireball, Earwig, and Khelvaster

, but no vote yet.

[HungryJoe]

Oh hey, I did didn't I? Haha, poor Aimee, hammered so soon. Interesting game though, I think these will both turn out pretty good.

=) (Sorry 'bout the trip post, I didn't see Aimee's post until after that second one.)

[pickemgenius]

pickemgenius: Terse, but pretty solid. Little to say, but doesn't need to say that much. kind of a low post count, and not too many words, but he does pop in now and again, and stonewalled Khel's attack against him. I'm completely neutral here, but it's hard to say with so little of his arguments in evidence.

I had to look up terse at first.

terse

adjective
brief and to the point; effectively cut short; "a crisp retort"; "a response so curt as to be almost rude"; "the laconic reply; 'yes'"; "short and terse and easy to understand"

that describes me yea.

[Shanba]

Coppélia: No need to replace me. I have some free time now and a couple of my games are headed towards night so I can devote a bit more time to this game.

HJ: Welcome to the game

Eh. Time for some player analyses.

His second post is the one that picked him up a lot of flak. Honestly, after hearing his defence (post subject 5), I'm inclined to believe it: it's the sort of comment that wouldn't be out of place in IRC. A couple of sentences in that post struck me as odd, but nothing major.

His 5th post (post subject 4 when viewing all posts by Khelvaster) is very scummy.

unvote

I don't know who to vote for--shadow doesn't seem too mafia yo me.

It smacks of indecision and a need to not seem to offensive: both behaviour often exhibited by new scum.

Next on the agenda is the subject of his voting. Despite naming his three subjects by his seventh post he only actually makes a vote 9 posts later. If you add in this little sinppet, it looks like he's decided that because scum vote hop the best way to look like he's not scum is to be really really careful about his vote.

If I were a mafia, I'd be bouncing my vote around as many people as possible, and then if someone who I voted for was falsly accused of being mafia, I could switch my vote back to that person without seeming overly suspicious. However, since that wasn't happening, you decided to take advantage of Riley's random and go after me, since I pointed out a bw, and you thought you could exploit that statement.

. He's still managed to attack just under half the town by this point though.

Next, there's the way he continually asks for confirmation from the town as to whether or not what he's doing is a good thing.

I don't know who to vote for--shadow doesn't seem too mafia yo me.

I'm going to vote for you unless you have any defence to this--I don't see any at the moment, but it could just be me making a colossal error.

Just because he isn't talking much, does that really implicate him in being mafia?

I'll leave it to other townies to judge whether my analysis is correct or not.

Btw, thanks for pointing out that this didn't make sense

A couple of people have mentioned a discrepency in how I acted in the first 3 pages to how I acted since. I stopped looking for random bws, stopped using WIFOM arguments, to name two things, because you guys told me that they were either obviously scummy or obviously noobish--two things I wish to avoid being seen as. Would it have been better for me to have continued trying to bw people and trying to use WIFOM to justify things?

Here's a question--if he were scum, would it be best for us to wait until we lynch/vigilante the other scum to lynch him? I don't know my mafia theory, but I believe that if one person is confirmed beyond doubt as scum, you wait to lynch him until you lynch the other scum. Am I right in this regard?

What are your takes on this?

If I had known that you all would think I was scum, I would have PM'd the mod, instead of posting it in the open to see what everyone else thought about it.

And so on. I'm happy with my Khel vote.

D8P analysis to come later.

[MightyFireball]

Hmmmm.... I was looking at pickemgenius's posts, and I've noticed a few things about him. First, the only person he has really attacked throughout the whole game is Khelvaster. Also, he repeatedly said that he doesn't take stock in random voting. I'm not quite sure why he did that. It seems as though he was trying to clear himself of any suspicion regarding those random votes. This is fine, but he does it a total of four times. I'm thinking this is a little bit of overkill.

Aimee's main contribution was her huge summary post followed by the analysis of each player. These have been amazingly helpful. She spent several posts justifying her comments in said analysis when they had been contradicted by other players. Also, she brings up the point of not lynching a vigilante because they are aligned with the town.

The option of lynching vigilantes was brought up by Kabenon. This I find to be very suspicious. Wanting to lynch a player on the town's side is something that no townie would want to do. The fact that a vigilante may kill a townsperson doesn't mean that we should lynch them. After all, doctors might protect a Mafia member at night, but we don't lynch them for it. What was your reasoning behind this?

I may have a look at the posts of other players later when I have more time.

[pickemgenius]

Hmmmm.... I was looking at pickemgenius's posts, and I've noticed a few things about him. First, the only person he has really attacked throughout the whole game is Khelvaster. Also, he repeatedly said that he doesn't take stock in random voting. I'm not quite sure why he did that. It seems as though he was trying to clear himself of any suspicion regarding those random votes. This is fine, but he does it a total of four times. I'm thinking this is a little bit of overkill.

If you're wondering why I said I don't take much stock in random voting, 4 times, then it's basically so I don't say something different and confuse myself, or you guys.

If I changed votes four times in the random stages of the game, well; I like to mess around a bit before the action starts happening.


So that should cover either scenario, since I really wasn't clear on what point you wanted answered.

[beanbagboy]

OK: I havta say that MF doesn't really look... like anything right now. I could see him go either way, but for the moment I don't want to lynch him. He hasn't really made any posts that confirm him either way, IMO.

@Joe: Nice to meet you, I've seen you around. Okay, I'm now highly suspicious of Khelvaster, I don't know if you noticed that. Are you done reading? It sounds like you think I think he's innocent, so let me say this: I think he is scum right now for many reasons (if you want, I will restate them) stated earlier. Also, your columns seem messed up: d8p is in the town column when you don't know about him, whereas Bob and Aimee are in the don't know column when you think them to be town. Can you make a clear list just so us slow people can see your game analysis?

@Shanba: That passes for me. I am temporarily shuffling you to the town pile, that was a meaty post.

FoT: Shanba

Also, MF, is that true about Pickem? I'll need to look over. I'll start my PBPA tonight, or at least I'll try.

[HungryJoe]

And then I have a question for anyone to answer: I've never played with a vigilante before, is it wise to leave them alone so they can vigilante scum, or wise to lynch them so they don't get trigger-happy?

This is in no way a "Let's lynch the Vig!", BM. You're really grasping for that here, because it looks like nothing more than the question of an inexperienced player to those who have played in a game where vigilantes helped or worsened the townies' game, and Aimee was just answering for him.

I really think you're grasping for someone besides Faldo to lay the attack onto, but you're not making good with it. Maybe you should spend this time coming up with a defense to protect yourself, rather than someone else to lash out at? =\

[Ripley]

HungryJoe, I think you've blurred the boundaries between your two new games a bit (BM? Faldo?) unless, of course, I've wandered into one of those fascinating parallel universe situations.