Open 19 - Nightless (Over?) before 430

[Simenon]

I'm managing replacements right now.

Prodding players too.

[Simenon]

Vote Count
BattleMage- Romanus
TonyMoonshine- IH
John- VitaminR, Skruffs
Mustafa- MissMoo
IH- TonyMoonshine

With eleven alive, it's six to lynch.

Deadline- May 30th

Replacing: BattleMage, john

[Simenon]

YogurtBandit replaces john

[YogurtBandit]

Hello all! im going to read over the topics and Look over suspicous action. 8)

[Aimee]

I think I might as well

vote: MissMoo

, just to keep this going.

[IH]

fos:aimee

I hate the wording of that last post.

[TonyMoonshine]

1.Describe "Scripted play" and compare it to my other games..

I don't know anything about your other games.

Scripted play: Today Occult, tomorrow Tony. Seems like you're playing from a script.

Anyway, being it's Memorial Day weekend I'm sure things will get even slower. Hopefully, come Tuesday things start to pick up.

[Simenon]

Guardian replaces Battle Mage.

He tells me he will have limited access though.

[Battle Mage]

awesome. good luck town!

[Guardian]

Hey guys.
I do have limited access but I've read the whole thread and am ready to contribute!

I thought I was replacing john, which made me kind of sad, because my inital notes before reading my role were that the most likely scumlist was:

Vitr, IH, nar(now Skruffs), and john(now yb). Luckily, I am replacing BM not john, so my analysis shall not go to waste.

I don't have time to pbpa but I will say that Vitr and IH are linked for me, and Vitr scum would imply IH scum but not necesarily vice versa. Vitr seemed to help steer the Occult lynch over john lynch too.

IH followed Vitr, it seems, and also has really bad logic that Oh, we have 4 misses, its OK. Yeah we do have 4 misses, but with each miss it becomes more and more likely for scum to be able to steer the wagon. We need to get a few lynches right, not get them wrong and go, oh well.

Nar was absolutely crazy (I was reading the thread before the crash) and I don't like the idea that we shouldn't hold that against Skruffs. You should vote off the role, not the player; doing otherwise is ludacrous. Blagho's one post was as scummy as hell to me, but BattleMage's play seemed on the up and up. However, if their play seemed scummy, hold that against me! That comes with being a replacement. I also had some issues with Skruff's bpba.

John, finally, is where the plan hinges. If John is scum, then VitR is in my eyes likely scum, and if Vitr is scum then IH is likely to be. They pointed out/realized that the scum shifted the wagon, and are now imo bussing their companion. John's play was also scummy in and of itself in certain aspects.

Today I am happy with a Skruffs, Vitr, or yogurt bandit lynch. YB is my preference as YB being scum leads to Vitr scum which helps the case for nar and ih scum, but I am willing to go with Vitr today if the rest of you agree.

Since townie like people can't get nightkilled in this setup, I see no harm in listing the people I trust too. Romanus, Aimee, and Elias barely blipped my radar. Ditto with Occult, but I got here too late for that to help. Reread his posts though, it is enlightining.

I am unsure what to think of Tony, mustafa, and missmoo, though I am suspicious of all of them.

YB makes the most sense to lynch to me for today (again I'm happy I didn't inherit that role) and I am happy to go along with his (again imo) scum buddies in voting him.

vote YogurtBandit

Last thing, don't assume any lurking on my part is scummy, I may not have stable internet access until June 4th when I return from Spain; I replaced as a favor to Simenon .

[Simenon]

Prodding VitaminR and Skruffs

This is getting ridiculous.

[Guardian]

Suprisingly I had time for a reskim. I realize I am wrong about Vitr steering the John lynch, I guess IH and Vitr got mashed together in my mind. He was happy with lynching either of them, and he did hammer though.

That being said, Vitr and IH seem to agree with me that john is the next play, his pregame question was absolutely scummy, and his reactions to the happenings in the game seemed scummy.

I am now somewhat less suspicous of Vitr and moreso of IH. Finding IH to be scum would make me more convinced of Vitr, as they still seem linked to me in my reread.

Skruffs has been playing independently, but his comment that I mentioned earlier about scum leading the lynch can definitely be seen as leading to fellow scum.

I remain happy with lynching John for today, I only hope others agree with my analysis for tomorrow as I personally am pretty convinced by it.

In the skim, Romanus seems persistent in attacking me, kinda odd because I found little scummyness with BM's play. Also:

I'm thinking Occult is town more and more these days.

then a vote of Occult a few posts of his later seems a tad bit off.

Romanus is no longer as likely town in my eyes, but other than the two things I pointed out I find him a pretty likely town candidate.

I didn't note anything distincly scummy in Elias or Aimee's play, but they have not been very active contributing. Nor have mustafa or Missmoo's predecesors for that matter. Get on this, people. We have what, 3 days til lynch?

Simenon

I mentioned this to you in PM, but I think a 10 day day deadline on this game is ridiculous, and I ask that you please extend it.

IH, I disagree that tony is a good lynch. I am not nearly suspicious of him as I am of other players. I think the town made a mistake in not lynching John yesterday, and that he is a good play for today. I don't see your tony argument, and I think that while Tony isn't articulating his argument against you well there is one there. I think you are just trying to quiet a dissenter. I don't have a strong feeling about Ton'y allignment, though, so maybe this is just more distancing.

One thing that makes me doubt this is that in reading BM's analysis, he disagrees. One advantage of replacing is you get some confirmed-town analysis that no one else does... and BM would oppose me greatly about John. I still feel good about most of my scum analysis though, just the IH Vitr link maybe get IH first instead of Vitr. If IH is town that does hurt a Vitr case. Skruffs seems pretty leading and scummy to me, again remember that he replaced nar...

IH and Skruffs also have comitted craplogic, IH with the no worries attitude and Skruffs saying nar replacing out shows he is town. Yes it shows he cares about the game, but I take that to mean he cared about his scum partners. Skruff's cavalier attitude and thought that he will replace nar and live and that this is a good thing strikes me the wrong way.

I will be perfectly clear right now: I believe John is a good play for today even though I think his scum partners are getting some distancing out of it, but I will switch my vote if either Vitr Skruffs or IH come under more pressure, especially if the deadline stands. The fact that both Skruffs and Vitr are on the john wagon actually does make me wonder about it a bit.

[Simenon]

Guardian, I'll extend the deadline when I have evidence of there being more activity and when more players ask for it. Neither have taken place, and there is an average of three posts per day when the deadline was set six days ago.

It's nightless, and I going to be stricter on deadlines.

[VitaminR]

Guardian, why does John as scum make me scum?

I'm still content with my vote.

[Guardian]

<snip>
I realize I am wrong about Vitr steering the John lynch
<snip>
I am now somewhat less suspicous of Vitr and moreso of IH.
<snip>

It doesn't; I remembered you as steering the town away from John and to Occult when in fact this was not the case, it was more of IH's doing.

I'm happy you are content with your vote, I am content with your vote too, it's just that I still suspect that you are scum.

[IH]

Welcome Guardian. A favor for LFR? Do you come from another site?

IH, I disagree that tony is a good lynch. I am not nearly suspicious of him as I am of other players. I think the town made a mistake in not lynching John yesterday, and that he is a good play for today. I don't see your tony argument, and I think that while Tony isn't articulating his argument against you well there is one there. I think you are just trying to quiet a dissenter. I don't have a strong feeling about Ton'y allignment, though, so maybe this is just more distancing.

If you would look at his actual arguments, and see that there is almost no logic in the, I believe you might agree.
My "4 misses" comment was on how many we have to win. If we lynch correctly, we extend our "lives" by one. If we lynch incorrectly we reduce them by one. So we lynch correctly today, we have 4 misses again. We're currently at three.
Do you have some actual quotes/logic on how Vit and I are linked? As in, linked with alignment?
Could you quote mine and Skruffs craplogic?
You should read some of NAR's other's games, and see why we aren't holding this against Skruffs.
What did you think of the Occult case at the time? Yes he is town, but even if all of the scum were on there, it would have had to convince 3 more townies, correct? It was hardly a speedlynch.

Mod

being stricter with deadlines is a disadvatange to town with your rules, because they can just watch the lynch go through easier by perpetuating less posts....
How did I steer the town away from a John lynch?
I'd like somthing a little more specific to defend against.

[Guardian]

Hmm... I gtg in 2 minutes but I have you guys linked near the beginning of the game.

Skruffs and your badlogic is there, but I don't have time to go quote it.

Again, his is right after he replaced where he said nar asking for a replacement was pro town.
Yours was after the lynch where you were like, oh I shan't cry... In fact I think Skruffs may have pointed out your bad logic?

<3 Guardian

[Aimee]

I too want to see evidence of this crap logic. Mostly, they make good posts, although I disagree with IH's case against Tony, becuase I think John/Yoghurt Bandit is a better target.

unvote: Miss Moo

[Skruffs]

Guardian, if John is the 'hinge', then why are you targetting everyone else?
If lynching John - now Yogurt Bandit - would result in VitR and possibly IH being scum, why would you instead go after VitR?

My PBPA (not bpba) was pretty much stream of conciousness. I said right in there that my opinions were going to flavor it - but overall I think it was fairly objective and it brought up all of the issues I saw in it.

Fos : Guardian

Welcoem to the game.

[Guardian]

IH's badlogic:

I was late to the game and again I apologize. While catching up I made note of John's post, but this is only my second game and I learned not to be vote happy. Also, if we lynch him now what information do we have to go on for tomorrow?

There are more players than in a newbie game. With Twelve alive it's 7 to lynch.

Also this a mountainous nightless game.

Scum need 4 mislynches to win, right? So we have a guaranteed 4 days. Yet, with every person we lynch, the town gains "an extra life" since scum kills can't exactly balance it out.

Look at it this way.

with 12 alive, 4 are scum.

We lynch correctly, we're at 8 townies 3 scum left.

That's a guaranteed 5 days. We have some room to mislynch. We shouldn't get careless, but we shouldn't mind putting some pressure on people, because if scum speedlynch, then we have enough room to lynch them right back.

This is extremely misleading. With four scum alive atm, only two townies need to slip up and hop on an all scum wagon for a mislynch to occur. If we mislynch, the same thing happens tomorrow. We need to be careful about

every

lynch, because with over 33% of the population, scum can influfence lynches easily!! Then later, IH goes on to say how we shouldn't stress that we lynched a townie, where by his own reasoning we only have three lives yet. Very scummy imo, and trying to get townies to be alltogether too lose with their votes.

With this in mind,

unvote

as it seems like not such a good idea to start a wagon on John/YB with two people I think are scum on the wagon, even though my initial thought was that John was scum.

Also, with BattleMage and Occult not suspecting John, and imo two scum voting for him, that gives me a little pause for thought as to whether I am right about the scum bussing him or whether is actually a townie. I am more comfortable with IH as being scum after thinking about it for the greater part of a day so:

vote IH

I also think IH isn't on target at all with Tony being definite scum, but I may let other players analyze that for themselves...




Skruff's badlogic:

Well, and I don't want to bring metagaming into this, but it's there... NAR told me when he asked me to replace for him that he wanted to be replaced because he thought it was the best thing he could do for town. Which is actually kind of thoughtful, because I know some players who have no trouble getting themselves lynched, because they don't care about the game. So you can say that NAR is at least caring about the game, regardless of which alignment he is. He is town, of course. Err, was. I'm town.

This does absolutely nothing to convince me that NAR is town. His behavior was overtly scummy, and him replacing out may show that he cares about the game, but does

nothing

to show his allignment. NAR could just have easily, and imo more likely, have replaced out because he knew his behavior was overtly scummy and he didn't want to screw over his scumbuddies.

Skruffs trying to use NAR's replacing out as evidence that NAR was in fact town is complete bs, and is a lame attempt at covering for NAR's scummy play. Skruffs, I know you, and you can do better than that.

Guardian, if John is the 'hinge', then why are you targetting everyone else?
If lynching John - now Yogurt Bandit - would result in VitR and possibly IH being scum, why would you instead go after VitR?

My PBPA (not bpba) was pretty much stream of conciousness. I said right in there that my opinions were going to flavor it - but overall I think it was fairly objective and it brought up all of the issues I saw in it.

Fos : Guardian

Welcoem to the game.

I already said that I misremembered the situation. I don't have much time in Spain to sit at a computer and read, but I have lots of time to think while hiking. I thoght and still think IH and Vitr are linked. In doing so, I remembered both IH and Vitr defending John. This was simply not the case. In fact, it was more of IH pushing for Occult's lynch over John, and Vitr actually trying to lynch John. I still see them as linked, but John turning up scum directly would only make a better case for IH, not for Vitr directly. Because of IH's defending John, his connection to Vitr, and his badlogic, I am beginning to think that he is a better lynch than John today. I am happy to see any of the 4 of you hang though, because you are still the most scummy imo. I am more happy though to see IH or John hang, though, because those are the players that have connections with others. I don't take much stock in your FOS btw, because before replacing in I thought I had the game figured out and I still think I do, and that involves you being scum.




My reasons for thinking the scum are bussing John/YB:

Pretty sure people are trying to deflect attention from scum onto a scum-defender.

YEah, pretty sure scum protected John. That was ignored in the haste to get the townie lynched.

Exactly- which is why Occult got lynched. He defended John - and if John was actually scum, his buddies couold partially clear him while looking pro-town by piling up on someone who was defending him (a townie). The person shows up townie, the actual scum is cleared - move on to someone else.

Orrr... something like this.

Mmk, this guy is opportunistic scum.

Occult today, Tony tomorrow.

Ignore actual scum, lynch scum-defender, move to next scummy townie.

Analyze those three posts, and tell me you don't see Skruffs as directing his scum buddies to wagon John. Which he and Vitr are doing, and IH is stoicly refusing to do...

So yeah, IH John Skruffs Vitr... the scum four. There you go.

[IH]

OK Guardian.

First off, if we are extremely careful with our votes, then this game will stall. That is why the FIRST nightless did not stall. Because we were free with our votes.

Secondly, HOW would stressing over a townie help the town in any way? You never do that, and continue on with hunting scum. Mourning a townie with posts like "Aw that sucks!" does nothing, except add some nice appeals to emotion (Look at me! I'm town, cause I'm sad cause we mislynched! Wooo!)

If you think Tony is town, could you point out the flaws in his case?

Could you also outline why you think I'm scum (other than craplogic), and how I'm connected to Vit?

[Guardian]

If we are not careful with our votes, scum will be able to steer the lynches and win. Did they win nightless one?

Stressing makes you be more careful with votes in the future.... Not stressing makes it seem OK for there to be another mislynch.... and then you can be all, "oh, well don't stress, let's just try again"....


Yes I could, but I'm not sure doing so would help the town, it would only help you ammend your behavior. Town players can see the errors for themselves.

Also, I lack the time required (as of this moment) to do what you request, even if I wanted to. There are flaws, and you and Vitr are definitely linked though, from near the beginning of the game onward.

[mustafa15]

If lynching John - now Yogurt Bandit - would result in VitR and possibly IH being scum, why would you instead go after VitR?

His vote is on Yogurt Bandit right now...

I agree that we should be careful in our votes, in that we don't just vote for the sake of voting. However, if somebody thinks somebody else is scum, then by all means, they should vote for them. After doing another quick reread/skim through, I'm going to have to

vote:Yogurt Bandit

. This puts him at lynch -2, so start being careful. It kinda sucks for YB that he got stuck with replacing john, but I think that John did enough to warrent a lynch.

[Romanus]

I don't like this Yogurt Bandit wagon at all. The only argument I have really seen, and repeatedly is that John should have been lynched yesterday, or yesterday we knew he should be lynched today, so, let's lynch him.

The problem with following a script as IH's post was described as, is that it is really easy for scum to just go along with the plan. I am not so much condemning IH for having the plan, as I am pointing the finger at people who are simply parroting IH to get an easy Yogurt lynch.

Guardian sort of did this at first, but then switched his vote to IH. This leads me to two possibilities. Either Guardian is scum that was bussing his scumpartner, but then decided to try and save him, or he is really a townie that is really looking for scum, but not afraid to throw his vote around. So, I am not suspicious of Yogurt now.

UNVOTE

[IH]

If we are not careful with our votes, scum will be able to steer the lynches and win. Did they win nightless one?

Nope, town won ,V,,

Stressing makes you be more careful with votes in the future.... Not stressing makes it seem OK for there to be another mislynch.... and then you can be all, "oh, well don't stress, let's just try again"....

No, not really. Stressing is in no way a pro town point. It's leaning more towards a scumminess point, same thing as commenting on night kills. All you're doing is trying to affirm in the minds of other players that you are protown, instead of actually BEING protown.

Yes I could, but I'm not sure doing so would help the town, it would only help you ammend your behavior. Town players can see the errors for themselves.

Then you are blatantly defending Tony. If you see flaws in a case against someone you think is town, then you should show them. Not doing so is just scum deflecting a case from his partner.

FoS:Guardian

Also, I lack the time required (as of this moment) to do what you request, even if I wanted to. There are flaws, and you and Vitr are definitely linked though, from near the beginning of the game onward.

I will continually ask for these until I see results. Until then I consider I have nothing further to defend myself against.