Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Desperado]

My naked vote contains more content than 521.

Did you, like, do any of that overnight or what? Who is scum?

[snscompt1]

That's what I was thinking. How do you separate mafia from WW? The Titus lynch and a NK analysis. I didn't mean to bring out SNS' bad side.

Oh sorry. I cant tell tone through text. I thought your post was condenscending me. My apologies

And youre right. Not everyone who discusses the NK is scum. You eventually have to do that. I think the point I was getting at, was the way he wanted to talk about it. He threw in the word "framed" which was odd. And then he asked everyone thoughts. To me, I look for the scum in everyone. So in his case, he was subtly implying Reineo was framed or something, then asked everyone thoughts. Planting seeds.

Also,

@MOD V/LA til the 6th

Girlyfriend visiting.
I will reread while Im VLA but probably no more posts after this.

[Paschendale]

Despite them being by my scumreads, those last votes on Titus by Bulge and Bins didn't look very bussy. It's possible that the whole wagon was town.

@Mist: Can we get a final vote count for day 1?

[Not_Mafia]

My naked vote contains more content than 521.

Did you, like, do any of that overnight or what? Who is scum?

Care to explain said vote?

And no I didn't, but I will be over the next couple of days

Despite them being by my scumreads, those last votes on Titus by Bulge and Bins didn't look very bussy. It's possible that the whole wagon was town.

@Mist: Can we get a final vote count for day 1?

Why did your mind jump to a whole town wagon instead of thinking they're wolves? And do you honestly think a whole town wagon d1 is realistic in a 7-3-2? That would literally mean scum is everyone off the wagon.

[Unsight]

I think this is accurate.

Final Day 1 Vote Count

Titus (7): Not_Mafia, Wickedestjr, reinoe, Splashcloud, Paschendale, The Bulge, Bins
Splashcloud (3): Titus, Desperado, fuzzybutternut
Maruchan (1): snscompt1
Paschendale (1): bjc

VOTE: fuzzybutternut
- Unvoted in 453, called ShadedMelee scum in 475, next vote was Splashcloud on 492.

[Paschendale]

Why did your mind jump to a whole town wagon instead of thinking they're wolves? And do you honestly think a whole town wagon d1 is realistic in a 7-3-2? That would literally mean scum is everyone off the wagon.

That's a good point. I didn't think of that. I think my brain was in single-faction mode. Again, I'd like to see the final votecount so I can break it down and get some ideas.

[Bins]

It's in the post right above yours. Unsight did one.

[Paschendale]

I wanted one from the mod.

Either way, if Bulge and Bins could have been voting for a different faction than their own, then the scumreads (or ww-reads) still stand.

[Splashcloud]

I think this is accurate.

Final Day 1 Vote Count

Titus (7): Not_Mafia, Wickedestjr, reinoe, Splashcloud, Paschendale, The Bulge, Bins
Splashcloud (3): Titus, Desperado, fuzzybutternut
Maruchan (1): snscompt1
Paschendale (1): bjc

VOTE: fuzzybutternut
- Unvoted in 453, called ShadedMelee scum in 475, next vote was Splashcloud on 492.

I believe this is incorrect as I happened to replace Maruchan, so was sns' vote on me or someone else?

[fuzzybutternut]

I wanted one from the mod.

Either way, if Bulge and Bins could have been voting for a different faction than their own, then the scumreads (or ww-reads) still stand.

What do you mean by this? Sorry, this confuses me a bit.

[fuzzybutternut]

Why did your mind jump to a whole town wagon instead of thinking they're wolves? And do you honestly think a whole town wagon d1 is realistic in a 7-3-2? That would literally mean scum is everyone off the wagon.

NM makes a good point here. The likelihood of the entire wagon being town is slim to none.
I'd expect a 1-1-4 scenario if anything.


Now then, in no way, shape, or form, is analyzing a NK something scum does in thread. What would be the point of that? Voting me for that just shows that you're looking for a lynch without foundation. Find a good reason to vote me and then I'll acknowledge it a little more.

[fuzzybutternut]

Unsight, what are you going on about? I'm fairly certain I explained the reasoning behind all of my votes. I even declared exactly who I thought was scum.

[The Bulge]

Reinoe? Interesting..

PR hunting, no doubt.

Or framing?

Thoughts on the NK everyone?

Nightkill analysis is crucial, obviously. Maybe not soooo much at this point, but whatever. To each his own. But this post looks awkward to me. Noting.

My

naked

vote contains more content than 521.

Did you, like, do any of that overnight or what? Who is scum?

Ok cool, I get that you're making a point and calling out N_M. But you still need to explain the vote.

Despite them being by my scumreads, those last votes on Titus by Bulge and Bins didn't look very bussy. It's possible that the whole wagon was town.

@Mist: Can we get a final vote count for day 1?

Possible? Technically. But HIGHLY unlikely. I don't like this for some reason. Also noted.

Why did your mind jump to a whole town wagon instead of thinking they're wolves? And do you honestly think a whole town wagon d1 is realistic in a 7-3-2? That would literally mean scum is everyone off the wagon.

NM makes a good point here. The likelihood of the entire wagon being town is slim to none.
I'd expect a 1-1-4 scenario if anything.


Now then, in no way, shape, or form, is analyzing a NK something scum does in thread. What would be the point of that? Voting me for that just shows that you're looking for a lynch without foundation. Find a good reason to vote me and then I'll acknowledge it a little more.

I don't like this defense either. It's sounds like forced passiveness, like "hey yea vote me, but you better have a good reason for it!"

Holding my vote for now. I want more content to look at.

@fuzzy - You asked everyone else for their thoughts on the NK but never provided yours. Why do you think reinoe was killed?

@Pasch - 1) What makes you so sure mine and Bins' votes weren't bussing Titus?
2) Do you think it is plausible that as a pair of werewolves we coordinated the hammer together?

@Desp - You acknowledge your vote as naked, but make no effort to "dress" it and instead just use it as a shot against N_M. Care to enlighten us? And does the vote have anything to do with N_M (ie associative tells)?

[Unsight]

Unsight, what are you going on about? I'm fairly certain I explained the reasoning behind all of my votes. I even declared exactly who I thought was scum.

You called

ShadedMelee

/

Titus

scum but didn't vote them. At a time when you were voting no one. If you're his scum partner then it makes sense that you'd want some plausible deniability "I thought he was scum in Post XYZ" but not want to bus him by actually voting him. Not my strongest read ever, but I've lynched people for less.

[Paschendale]

I wanted one from the mod.

Either way, if Bulge and Bins could have been voting for a different faction than their own, then the scumreads (or ww-reads) still stand.

What do you mean by this? Sorry, this confuses me a bit.

I was rethinking my scumreads on them because their votes on Titus really didn't look like busses to me. But I had forgotten about the multiball. So, since they can be werewolves and have voted for an enemy there, I see no reason to change my conclusions.

NM makes a good point here. The likelihood of the entire wagon being town is slim to none.
I'd expect a 1-1-4 scenario if anything.

Yes, I agree. I was incorrect before.

Now then, in no way, shape, or form, is analyzing a NK something scum does in thread. What would be the point of that? Voting me for that just shows that you're looking for a lynch without foundation. Find a good reason to vote me and then I'll acknowledge it a little more.

Scum certainly could. But I don't imagine that they would be more likely than town to do so. I think of more interest is that there was only one kill. Whoever stopped the other one, props!

Possible? Technically. But HIGHLY unlikely. I don't like this for some reason. Also noted.

Maybe you should come up with one. Otherwise, this looks like bullshit.

@Pasch - 1) What makes you so sure mine and Bins' votes weren't bussing Titus?
2) Do you think it is plausible that as a pair of werewolves we coordinated the hammer together?

They just don't look like busses. Having seen many and done a few, that's not what they look like. And I don't think your votes require coordination, nor do you necessarily both have to be bad guys. My scumreads on you are independent of each other.

You called

ShadedMelee

/

Titus

scum but didn't vote them. At a time when you were voting no one. If you're his scum partner then it makes sense that you'd want some plausible deniability "I thought he was scum in Post XYZ" but not want to bus him by actually voting him. Not my strongest read ever, but I've lynched people for less.

And I'll bet they flipped town. That's a weak reason.

[Mist7676]

Day 1's Final Vote Count:

Vote Count:

Titus

(7) - Not_Mafia, Splashcloud, Wickedestjr, reinoe, Paschendale, The Bulge, Bins.

Splashcloud

(4) - Titus, snscompt1, Desperado, fuzzybutternut,

Paschendale

(1) - bjc

[Not_Mafia]

Scum certainly could. But I don't imagine that they would be more likely than town to do so. I think of more interest is that there was only one kill. Whoever stopped the other one, props!

You don't know the set up of an Open game you're in?

then, in no way, shape, or form, is analyzing a NK something scum does in thread. What would be the point of that? Voting me for that just shows that you're looking for a lynch without foundation. Find a good reason to vote me and then I'll acknowledge it a little more.

Have you really never seen scum NK commentary or are you feigning ignorance?

And why did you vote Splash over Titus/Shaded at the end of the day? Both wagons were on L-3 when you voted and your case on Shaded seemed to be better than your one on the Maru slot.

VOTE: Fuzzy

[fuzzybutternut]

Unsight, what are you going on about? I'm fairly certain I explained the reasoning behind all of my votes. I even declared exactly who I thought was scum.

You called

ShadedMelee

/

Titus

scum but didn't vote them. At a time when you were voting no one. If you're his scum partner then it makes sense that you'd want some plausible deniability "I thought he was scum in Post XYZ" but not want to bus him by actually voting him. Not my strongest read ever, but I've lynched people for less.

Please go back and re-read my posts. I explained all my votes to a key. I explained my scum reads too. There was a whole discussion about it yesterday. Yes, I thought Shaded/Titus was scum, but I wanted to hold my vote at the time. Sns (I think it was sns) made a comment that made me change my mind about who I wanted to vote, and so I voted for them instead.

Now, please tell me, what would be the purpose in bussing my scumbuddy in a setup like this? That would potentially leave my team at a disadvantage, as having them lynched would leave us one less and possibly two less, assuming we were mafia and not werewolves. At any case, it's damn near suicidal to do.

@whoever asked me about my thoughts on the NK (I'm far too lazy to go back and re-read atm), I'd guess PR hunting, if anything. Might've just been something to pass the night. There's no way of knowing for sure.

[Paschendale]

Scum certainly could. But I don't imagine that they would be more likely than town to do so. I think of more interest is that there was only one kill. Whoever stopped the other one, props!

You don't know the set up of an Open game you're in?

No, I just forgot. It's been a really stressful week. And it seems to be continuing.

[Paschendale]

Looking at the votes that weren't on Titus, Fuzzy's is the most suspect. SNS is a townread for me, as is Desperado, though a weaker one. Titus already flipped. It does seem very unlikely that Titus was bussed, based on the multiball setup, so looking for his teammate off his wagon seems quite reasonable. It could also be the BJC/Unsight slot. Unsight will need to work very hard to rehabilitate that slot.

Also, because missing important setup details is apparently my thing lately, I just noticed that the mafia sample PM does not include a factional kill. So it is not, in fact, noteworthy that there was only one kill. We know that there should only have been one.

The question is, is it better strategy to pursue the werewolves first, or the mafia first? On the one hand, werewolves have a kill, on the other, we have a seer to track them down.

At the moment, I'm leaning towards werewolves.

VOTE: Bulge

[Unsight]

I'd expect a 1-1-4 scenario if anything.

Interesting. Pasch is probably the mafia on the wagon. bjc's read was a really good one and 544 ( above this post ) may as well be a mafia claim. Normally I wouldn't really suspect bussing Day 1, but I think Pasch came so close to lynching that she said "Fuck it, I'd rather lose a scum partner than leave the game" and went with it.

That said, if you two are the remaining mafia I'd rather lynch you over her because she feels more useful.

Bulge looks really good as a werewolf.

As for the last werewolf, the biggest wagon on Bulge yesterday was: fuzzybutternut, Paschendale, Desperado, bjc, snscompt1,

Maruchan

Splashcloud. As I said, I don't

normally

consider a Day 1 bus to be a thing so that leaves wickedestjr, Bins, and and Not_Mafia. Bulge tunneled really hard on Not_Mafia so we can knock him off the list plus his play is awesome. I don't have a scum read on wickedestjr or Bins, and Bulge didn't vote either. I like that Bins voted Bulge on 253. It wasn't a wagon that was going to go anywhere at the time of her vote but it was well past RVS and the reason was decent imo. Wickedestjr's "I'm surprised I'm still alive" in 517 is weird to me but

probably

maybe not scummy. Either way they are both very active and that is many days away. And all of this paragraph is based on Bulge flipping Werewolf. If he doesn't then back to square one we go... well, square one minus one mafia team.

tl;dr:

Paschendale

,

fuzzybutternut

,

The Bulge

. All these people need to die. More votes on fuzzy plz.

PS: bjc was town as fuck and his reads were super good. He had ShadedMelee, Bulge, Pasch picked out super fast. If all 3 flip scum then the town owes him a ton for the upcoming win.

[Mist7676]

Vote Count:

fuzzybutternut

(3) - Not_Mafia, snscompt1, Unsight

The Bulge

(2) - Paschendale, Desperado

(expired on 2014-08-16 05:25:27)

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

[Paschendale]

PS:

bjc was town as fuck and his reads were super good.

He had ShadedMelee, Bulge, Pasch picked out super fast. If all 3 flip scum then the town owes him a ton for the upcoming win.

[Bins]

I don't see how you can say someone has good reads if the people (minue the one) haven't flipped yet...

[The Bulge]

^ This.

Why is everybody talking like I'm confirmed ww? Like Unsight said, it's back to square one when I flip town. Sure, read me as werewolf, whatever. But go no further until the flip, because you're wasting your time and the town's time.