Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[reinoe]

Went to get something to eat, watched a Shirley Temple movie on t.v. (surprisingly charming), and then fell asleep. Continuing...

Spoiler: ShadedMelee

post 95, and then the explanation in post 156 is weak and shows an opportunistic vote.

Post 167 is not a bad question to ask but for some reason it rubs me the wrong way and I'll try to articulate it: ShadedMelee is implying that sns thinks bjc is town. This early in the game, even 13-14 pages in, you should still be asking questions of anyone even if they're scum. I even ask questions of my "I'm sure you're scum" people right up until lynch and often after lynch too. The idea of not asking questions/talking to your scumreads is something I'm not a fan of. This could be a playstyle difference.

post 170The only real problem I have with this reads list is the Wicked read and the Pasch read. Wicked because it's just a "wicked being wicked and that's town". Well why can't it be scum wicked? I don't like the reasoning for Pasch scum. Pasch could be scum, but the reasons are weak and it looks like he's just trying to set up a lynch here. Same with post 235

Shaded looks like opportunistic scum.

[bjc]

You all do

[reinoe]

Spoiler: TheBulge

post 152
Is a super-meh post. Just nothing to get excited about.

I get it. Pasch post seems weird to people. But nobody is giving their own reasoning for why it's weird. Yes I think it's weird to but I'm just pointing out the sheer number of people willing to vote without truly explaining what they have a problem with.

Post 243, 246, and 248 is TheBulge explaining his opportunistic vote. He's right in that several people were being opportunistic, but that doesn't mean you weren't bad too. I wish everyone would explain their votes on Pasch. The fact that Bulge has no good explanation though means he might be scum

Post 250 is a bad OMGUS vote. Using full quote so that anyone reading can see it...

Because I think that's a bullshit reason and I was hoping you had something better.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Not_Mafia

You mean like your explanations for your Pasch vote right? Cuz that was a kinda bullshit reason too.

That is an interesting question asked in post 315. Why would we get more information from a Bulge Lynch than a Pasch lynch? I'm asking because, at least from what I've seen, people don't analyze day one wagons. Bulge could be simply asking this question in order to survive but it's still an interesting question.

Post 319 is an appeal to emotion. Ironically, I often find myself in the same situation. Not being able to articulate my thoughts. This of course doesn't explain the Pasch vote. Even if you're not articulate you should still be able to offer an explanation for things that makes sense.

The Bulge is coming of as opportunistic in a way that could be town or scum.

[reinoe]

Spoiler: Desperado

174
Is a nice observation.

Wow, wagon analysis. Not in-depth analysis but hey somebody did it.

Nine posts and I only see two to comment on. Well, at least that made this easy.

To the surprise of nobody Desperado is coming off as cautios. Slight town vibe, but only slightly. It's going to be tough trying to decide between "scum hunting scum and town hunting scum".

[reinoe]

Spoiler: Bins

Like with Not_Mafia, I'm skipping the interactions during the sns/reinoe debate.

There's a trajectory to the post as Bins notices that TheBulge is posting in other areas. And then the vote in post 206.

In post 274 Bins is one of the few people to give a decent explanation for their Pasch vote.

Bins explains herself fairly well in post 303.

I feel the exact opposite of what Bins expresses in post 331. I'd like to ask why a wagon getting derailed could be more concerning than a wagon getting formed.

This is a good observation for in post 343.

Null-town on Bins. Stronger than the town read on Desp.

[Wickedestjr]

Catching up now.

[fuzzybutternut]

Catching up now.

atta-boy.

[reinoe]

These last ones are going to be the most difficult...

Spoiler: Paschendale

I disagree with the logic of post 172.


Like with post 172, I disagree with some of the reasoning in post 232.

I'm agreeing with 266. I don't like his reads list either but I just disagree with his conclusions. He could just be seeing the game in a different way. I'm not going to scumread someone for disagreeing with me. The "voting for a scum lean, instead of a straight scum" could raise some eyebrows but Pasch explained this well in post 273.

Post 345 demands immediate attention...

VOTE: Bulge

Wicked is probscum too,

but Bulge is more scummy imo.

We can look at him tomorrow as well.

I think they're both town

, but I look forward to the debate.

[reinoe]

Spoiler: fuzzybutternut

A decent catchup-post (201&202).


Post 209...why so much interest in catching werewolves? There's 3 mafia and two werewolves.

[url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p6027445]It's clear that f.b.n. has a somewhat casual style that's also aggressive. Like I've said before, the votes on Bulge are justified.

Fuzzy is null. For some reason I can't seem to get a more solid read here, but it could be because I was enjoying Taco-Bell and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.

[Wickedestjr]

I'm going to

Unvote.

Bins could still be scum, but I'm growing less confident. I am slightly bothered by the fact that she has voted sns, Pasch, AND Bulge (the three popular choices), but not bothered enough to keep my vote on her. Instead, I will

Vote: ShadedMelee

for the reason I provided earlier.


@reinoe- I finally looked at the two games that you referenced. I see that the day 1 bandwagons both had all of the scum on them. However there are two other things that I notice about those games;
1. Those day 1 lynches occurred on pages 55 and 18.
2. Both of the hammer votes were cast by townies.
You were clearly telling the truth about scum all joining those bandwagons. However, after considering those two facts, I don't see your flash wagon concern. What made you think a flash wagon was possible or likely?

Point 1...
..."There was nothing suspicious about his reinoe vote"...
..."While I side with snscompt here, I will admit that his vote for reinoe was bad - if he self hammers why can't you see him self voting in RVS?"...
..." The vote is bad, but snscompt isn't suspicious"...
Flip flop on sns more please. People get scumread for suspicious votes all the time.
Point 2...
..."Have you ever seen that happen before? Wouldn't a flashwagon make it obvious who scum are?"...
I'm always suspicious of players who have been here for years acting like they've never seen things that I've seen. Screams fake to me. Post 112 is terrible. The probability is unlikely but still possible. That was the point. And almost nobody does day one wagon analysis and even if they do it's not until day three or four anyway and there's no guarantee anyone will get it right. With two scum teams and five scum total, yeah the scum could hide out there easily on a day one flashwagon.

Point 1...
I'm not flip flopping on sns. I admit that his vote for you was bad, but I don't think it's voteworthy. I think I've made it clear that I town read sns.
Point 2...
I've played almost forty mafia games and read/skimmed almost two dozen more. I just took a look at my wiki page with all the games I've played on this site. The only games I know of in which quick lynches occurred were Mini Normal 1064: Charlie's Town, Mini Normal 1183: Mafiamatical Mathia, and Invictus Mafia. In Charlie's Town, a scum was the second vote and the last five votes were all town. In Mafiamatical Mathia, every single vote was town. In Invictus Mafia, ten was required for a lynch, two scum joined, and the last two votes were town. All three of those bandwagons were town pushed. I have never seen a scum flash wagon. Also, I oftentimes consider the day 1 bandwagon.

Wicked has already admitted that sns' vote is bad. Could Bins be opportunistic? Maybe but she justifies said vote well. There were a number of posts between Bins' post 39 and Bins' 79 that could have changed her mind. Post 114 is a hard chainsaw defense for snscopter. If sns or wicked turn out to be scum then the other is the partner.

1. Note that Bins didn't vote sns for his vote. She voted him for his defenses. I think sns' vote was bad (but not scummy) but I never had any issue with his defenses.
2. I actually thought the change occurred from 39 to 48. I can't see anything else that would have changed her mind between those two posts, though. I looked before I made that post.
3. I'm not chainsaw defending him. In general if I see a bandwagon on somebody that I think is town, then I am going to make that clear and explain why - I've done this at least a dozen times before. Be careful with chainsaw defense accusations, neither of us have flipped yet and I know you're wrong about me. "After further analysis, Tarhalindur has determined that the Chainsaw Defense is only trustworthy once the player defended has been revealed to be group scum (once the player defended is proved to be Mafia, any player that used Chainsaw Defense on the dead scum should be scrutinized). Otherwise, it is a null tell." - Wiki.

Not done posting. More soon.

[Wickedestjr]

I have issue with fuzzybutternut's suspicion of Bulge.

1. You seem very confident in your suspicion of him for reasons which don't seem that unique or strong.

2. I thought Bulge actually made a good point with regard to your 'mindless sheeping' accusation. Why did you ignore ShadedMelee, snscompt1, and Not_Mafia's votes? I would also like to point out that Bulge voted Paschendale two posts after the latter made his big reads post. He was the first person to vote Paschendale after that reads post and I thought it was obvious that Bulge was voting Paschendale for the reads post. So I don't see your issue here.

3. You said;

^That never has and never will make someone scum. Useless town =/= scum. Doesnt mean they shouldn't be lynched, but we should take out scum before we worry about useless town.

But this seems like a contradictory attitude. Aren't you essentially voting Bulge for uselessness?

[reinoe]

an overly defense post

The above is a scum catchup post

I did my "wickedest" analysis as of page 13 post 322. Wickedest's last post with content was on page 8 post 191. Of all the things he could have "caught up on" between those approximately four and a half pages-the first thing he decides to address is making sure he's defending himself from an indirect attack.

[Paschendale]

In retrospect, I'm not really sure who I was referring to in that comment, Reinoe. It was probably sns. I don't think Bulge is town. Thanks for pointing that out and giving me a chance to clarify. I want my vote to be on Bulge right now and I plan to keep it there barring new information to change my position.

[Maruchan]

These last ones are going to be the most difficult...

Spoiler: Paschendale

I disagree with the logic of post 172.


Like with post 172, I disagree with some of the reasoning in post 232.

I'm agreeing with 266. I don't like his reads list either but I just disagree with his conclusions. He could just be seeing the game in a different way. I'm not going to scumread someone for disagreeing with me. The "voting for a scum lean, instead of a straight scum" could raise some eyebrows but Pasch explained this well in post 273.

Post 345 demands immediate attention...

VOTE: Bulge

Wicked is probscum too,

but Bulge is more scummy imo.

We can look at him tomorrow as well.

I think they're both town

, but I look forward to the debate.

VOTE: Pasch

[Wickedestjr]

The above is a scum catchup post

I did my "wickedest" analysis as of page 13 post 322. Wickedest's last post with content was on page 8 post 191. Of all the things he could have "caught up on" between those approximately four and a half pages-the first thing he decides to address is making sure he's defending himself from an indirect attack.

Firstly, I am always overly defensive. I have been attacked for that aspect of my play several times in the past. It is irritating that you continue the tradition here. Please take my word for it and don't have issue with it here.

Secondly, I don't see the problem here. Once I switched my vote to Shaded, there were only two things I felt obligated to do - respond to you and question fuzzy. It made more sense for me to respond to an already existing post before generating a new discussion topic. What's the issue?

And does this mean you aren't going to respond to my post?

[Wickedestjr]

I admittedly forgot to ask about this;

Yeah but you are voting a scum lean and notyour totes scum read.

Because you might just be an asshole. I can think of reasons why my read on you could be wrong, even though I feel strongly about it. I can't think of other explanations for Bins' actions, despite being less certain of the initial read.

If bjc "might just be an asshole" then why did you say he was definitely scum in the first place? There is going to be doubt in every scum read barring a power role result, so there is no reason not to just vote your strongest scum read. The point is that you have slight doubt in your bjc suspicion, but even more doubt in your Bins suspicion. You said bjc was definitely scum and Bins was a scum lean. For that reason, it doesn't make sense that you vote Bins instead of bjc. This seems like a contradiction with a sprinkle of opportunism perhaps.

[reinoe]

The above is a scum catchup post

I did my "wickedest" analysis as of page 13 post 322. Wickedest's last post with content was on page 8 post 191. Of all the things he could have "caught up on" between those approximately four and a half pages-the first thing he decides to address is making sure he's defending himself from an indirect attack.

Firstly, I am always overly defensive. I have been attacked for that aspect of my play several times in the past. It is irritating that you continue the tradition here. Please take my word for it and don't have issue with it here.

Secondly, I don't see the problem here. Once I switched my vote to Shaded, there were only two things I felt obligated to do - respond to you and question fuzzy. It made more sense for me to respond to an already existing post before generating a new discussion topic. What's the issue?

And does this mean you aren't going to respond to my post?

Is there something there to respond to? Despite what you might think about the sns/reinoe argument I don't engage in pointless squabbling unless I really think it's important. Such things can have a detrimental effect on the town morale.

[Wickedestjr]

Is there something there to respond to? Despite what you might think about the sns/reinoe argument I don't engage in pointless squabbling unless I really think it's important. Such things can have a detrimental effect on the town morale.

I asked you a reasonable question about your flash wagon fear.

And I don't see what's pointless about this. You brought up points against me and I defended. If you still feel that your points are valid then I don't know why you wouldn't want to explain. Likewise, if you thought the original post about me was worth making then I don't understand why you wouldn't want to discuss it. This is a brand new topic of discussion, not like we've been arguing about it the whole day.

[snscompt1]

So...kinda catching up but Maru is definitely scum. Bad Maru.

[snscompt1]

Yeah, Maru is scum. Bulge is probably town. Pasch might be town. Probably not though atm.
Will settle for a Pasch lynch but I wanna get Maru lynched right now.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Maru

[reinoe]

What made you think a flash wagon was possible or likely?

I missed this question in your giant wall of hyperdefensiveness...

The probability aspect: I could see five scum easily jumping on someone for flawed/weak reasons. Even if all five scum don't jump on, if a few townies get on a wagon then it's still a convenient mislynch for scum. That's the part where I think a flashwagon is possible.

The likelyhood aspect I've been flashwagoned twice. Once primarily consisting of idiot townies and once by townies plus scum.

I'm really not sure what you're asking otherwise. I spoke my piece and you've spoken your piece. It sounds like you're trying to get into an argument. But maybe you're sincerely trying to engage me and I just don't feel like it right now.

[Paschendale]

I admittedly forgot to ask about this;

Yeah but you are voting a scum lean and notyour totes scum read.

Because you might just be an asshole. I can think of reasons why my read on you could be wrong, even though I feel strongly about it. I can't think of other explanations for Bins' actions, despite being less certain of the initial read.

If bjc "might just be an asshole" then why did you say he was definitely scum in the first place? There is going to be doubt in every scum read barring a power role result, so there is no reason not to just vote your strongest scum read. The point is that you have slight doubt in your bjc suspicion, but even more doubt in your Bins suspicion. You said bjc was definitely scum and Bins was a scum lean. For that reason, it doesn't make sense that you vote Bins instead of bjc. This seems like a contradiction with a sprinkle of opportunism perhaps.

It's a lot more complicated than that. It's about balancing which reasons I think are more compelling and which possible reasons why I could be wrong are more compelling. Mathematically, I am more sure of Bins, because BinsSuspicions - BinsApprehension > BjcSuspicions - BjcApprehension, but BjcSuspicions > BinsSuspicions, so I am more suspicious of Bjc. It's not opportunism, it's just complex. Also, how exactly is it opportunistic to suspect one of these two when no one else was seriously pursuing either of them?

[ShadedMelee]

At the time of your vote for bjc, you hadn't done anything more/different. I think it is suspicious that you would vote for bjc for doing something that you have also done. What is wrong with bjc's reasonless votes?

Please show me where i voted without a reason besides that bjc-reaction vote. Even my RVS vote has a reason.

Also do you think it is ok to vote people without giving reasons?

[fuzzybutternut]

I have issue with fuzzybutternut's suspicion of Bulge.

1. You seem very confident in your suspicion of him for reasons which don't seem that unique or strong.

2. I thought Bulge actually made a good point with regard to your 'mindless sheeping' accusation. Why did you ignore ShadedMelee, snscompt1, and Not_Mafia's votes? I would also like to point out that Bulge voted Paschendale two posts after the latter made his big reads post. He was the first person to vote Paschendale after that reads post and I thought it was obvious that Bulge was voting Paschendale for the reads post. So I don't see your issue here.

3. You said;

^That never has and never will make someone scum. Useless town =/= scum. Doesnt mean they shouldn't be lynched, but we should take out scum before we worry about useless town.

But this seems like a contradictory attitude. Aren't you essentially voting Bulge for uselessness?

1.) I think Bulge is a werewolf. It's a 50-50 gut read, meaning that half of the vote is because of gut and half is because I find his play scummy and indicative of a werewolf.

2.) Since when can scum not make good points? I don't care if your point is the best point that was ever made in the history of mafia, if you're scum, and I'm town, I'm going to lynch your ass. I didn't ignore anyone's votes. I knew very well who was voting for whom, but I wholeheartedly believe Bulge is scum and therefore will do my best to get him lynched.

3.) See 1. I will never push someones lynch solely for doing shit-all. That's a policy lynch. I despise policy lynches. Stating what I stated in said quote was more IC and less fuzzy. Despite this not being a newbie game, there are things people still think are scummy when, in reality, they aren't. I feel obligated to point things like that out in hopes to help their future gameplay.

[Not_Mafia]

@mod Laptop charger exploded, Limited Access for a few days