Mini 424 - Game Over

[MeMe]

Well, unless he's a total idiot (and I'm not ruling that out), he

may

have protected any one of the three you named since we all helped lynch someone who turned out to be scum. Night actions

should

take lynch results into consideration.

[spectrumvoid]

Kil did make the last vote, and nocmen was one of the later additions to the wagon.
Disclaimer here though: we'll never know what happened at night...

[Nocmen]

Hmm...well the doctor is dead. I stand corrected with how I almost would guarantee omg was scum. However, this makes me reconsider the way I saw things earlier in the game.

I still have some concern towards ac1983fan though. Just because he claimed does not mean I will always believe it.

[Elias_the_thief]

Man, thats the first time I've seen OMG tell the truth about a claim. I dont have any insight about who he might have protected however.

[Javert]

Lengthy post.

I believe it is inefficient trying to determine who omg_im_innocent_wtf protected last night. We don't know if it stopped a kill – it is only suggested in the flavor of the night scene, and weakly at that. The flavor clearly depicts him walking from a hospital as if he were an actual doctor, in which case he would have actual patients, some of which may have died (e.g. half of them).

After looking at the original Basically Basic Mafia (Mini #280), it appears as though "Capo Crimine/Crimini" (Ancalagon's role) was the Godfather role in that game, and turned up innocent to investigations. I do not know if the same would have held true in this game, but it seems worth noting.

However, that game

did

have a Serial Killer, so (in relation to the above paragraph) although we have no current evidence of there being in one in this particular game, I won't be keeping the possibility out of sight and out of mind. It certainly appears as though LyingBrian likes to add flavor for his games, and often hints as to who committed the nightkill (since I could tell each time when the Mafia/Serial Killer were responsible for the killings). I don't know if this would have been true had the Vigilante killed, however, since that did not occur in that game (and I just noted that in that game, the Vigilante had to choose their target during the

Day

phase, for whatever reason).

None of that directly helps find scum in this game, but it interested me nonetheless.

I feel it may be instructive to review the Ancalagon wagons we've had during the course of this game. Blue signifies votes off.

---

Wagon #1 on Ancalagon

:
1: Nocmen
2: shadowdeath [now spectrumvoid]
3: Elias_the_thief
*** [Data Lost]
4: omg_im_innocent_wtf
5: MeMe

4: omg_im_innocent_wtf

*** [Data Lost]
4: MeMe
5: ac1983fan

4: Elias_the_thief
3: ac1983fan
2: spectrumvoid (forced unvote for replacing shadowdeath)
1: Nocmen
0: MeMe

Wagon #2 on Ancalagon

:
1: MeMe
2: Sweenytodd [replacing The Shadow]

1: MeMe

2: MeMe
3: spectrumvoid
4: Nocmen
5: ac1983fan
6: kilmenator

---

Clearly the wagons do little to help me in particular, since I was on neither of them.

MeMe looks like the most solid voter on each wagon. Continued to return to that particular wagon a number of times, and helped to solidify the first time around, while bringing about its recurrence later.

I've been going back-and-forth for about ten minutes on who the worst votes/unvotes on Ancalagon came from. The last two seem the most suspect on the second wagon

Kilmenator's vote doesn't convince me either way. Could be scum laying down the hammer, or townsperson figuring they are better off doing something with their vote. I currently do not have a preference between the two.

I was originally thinking ac1983fan's vote near the end was particularly more likely to come from scum than town, for three reasons. Firstly was ac1983fan's suggestion of No Lynching. Secondly was that he was one of the more critical unvoters on the first wagon. Thirdly was the seeming inconsistency between posts [363] and [366]. In Post [363], he says it's 'obvious' Ancalagon is either townie or scum. After Ancalagon claims townie, ac1983fan decides he can lynch him safely. Though I still consider the first a point against him, the second actually seems more like a line of a thought a townsperson would portray. I would still like him to explain this, however: if you thought Ancalagon was either a townsperson or scum to begin with, I don't see how him claiming townie would make you vote him (since it would appear that even if he had claimed a power role, you would have disbelieved him and voted him anyways). In other words, your expectations of him being 'townie or scum' essentially meant you were going to vote for him whatever he claimed.

Elias_the_thief is really the only voter on the first wagon who looks somewhat suspect since he hopped on in the middle, and was one of the more silent unvoters after the server move.

[Javert]

Though I still consider the first a point against him, the

second

third

actually seems more like a line of a thought a townsperson would portray.

Change highlighted.

[Nocmen]

But if kil was scum, why would she hammer her own teammate, especially D1?

[spectrumvoid]

Nocmen: To make it look like she contributed to the lynch. To decrease suspicion etc.

[LyingBrian]

• Vote Count:
  • 9)
    not voting
    • ac1983fan
    • Barromán
    • Elias_the_thief
    • Javert
    • kilmenator
    • MeMe
    • Nocmen
    • spectrumvoid
    • Sweenytodd
• Lynch:
  5 votes

[Javert]

Indeed; distancing purposes. In any case, if Kilmenator had not hammered Ancalagon, I (and perhaps others) would have hammered him upon coming to the thread (as I mentioned when discussing Lynching v No Lynching), so there would be no sense on passing on such an opportunity to try to help oneself look more innocent.

[Elias_the_thief]

Well, I may have actually placed my vote in the middle of the wagon, but I was one of the first (i think the very first, actually) to express suspicions about him. So its not like I just "jumped on".

[Sweenytodd]

So I just went back and re-read Ancalagon's posts to see if I could pick out any kind of connections, which of course, I didn't see... = ( Most of his substantive posts were arguments with Elias and MeMe in both cases I think Ancalagon came out looking worse than the others. The only thing I did notice was this.

Anyway, good post, Javert. I really hadn't seen kil as very scummy until your post.

If someone plays scummy, they are not helpful to the town, so they are just a liability, and it is smart to be done with them IMO.

But at what cost? To lose a bad townie is a good idea? Lynching a townie is a good idea, even if they aren't good? Doesn't make sense to me, but it seems more of a policy discussion than an ingame discussion.

Like I said, not much of a connection, just Ancalagon piggy-backing on Javert's analysis. The only reason I bring it up is because Javert was one who didn't vote for Ancalagon and I don't see too many clear connections atm so I'm throwing this out and going to go re-read Javert again...

"I was born with scum like you."

IGMEOPWULFMTS

... Which translates to I Got My Eye On People Who Use Lines From Musicals in Their Sigs....

[Barromán]

I think that Javert is right.

And another thing to say; Kilmentantor and ac1983fan always look to me suspicius... and that lasts votes were suspicius... and the both voted him. Probably to look like they were inocent?

[Javert]

Would still like responses from ac1983fan, kilmenator, and Barroman for [368]. Would also like response from ac1983fan for [380].

[MeMe]

kilmenator's the only one yet to check in today. Since LyingBrian sends those helpful PMs letting us know when day breaks (I'm assuming everyone got them? Correct me if I'm wrong), I don't think there can be a good reason for her absence...

[ac1983fan]

I was originally thinking ac1983fan's vote near the end was particularly more likely to come from scum than town, for three reasons. Firstly was ac1983fan's suggestion of No Lynching. Secondly was that he was one of the more critical unvoters on the first wagon. Thirdly was the seeming inconsistency between posts [363] and [366]. In Post [363], he says it's 'obvious' Ancalagon is either townie or scum. After Ancalagon claims townie, ac1983fan decides he can lynch him safely. Though I still consider the first a point against him, the second actually seems more like a line of a thought a townsperson would portray. I would still like him to explain this, however: if you thought Ancalagon was either a townsperson or scum to begin with, I don't see how him claiming townie would make you vote him (since it would appear that even if he had claimed a power role, you would have disbelieved him and voted him anyways). In other words, your expectations of him being 'townie or scum' essentially meant you were going to vote for him whatever he claimed.

I Wasn't thinking straight.

[Sweenytodd]

I Wasn't thinking straight.

Who do you think is suspicious at the moment then considering the pages of material we have? You must be able to do more than quote a big block of text and then respond by saying "I wasn't thinking straight"...

[ac1983fan]

look, I'm busy right now and won't be able to make an in depth anaysis for the next week and 1/2. sorry,

[Elias_the_thief]

I really dont like the "i wasnt thinking straight"...
Inconsistency is a major scumtell in my book.

[spectrumvoid]

Ac1983fan... so we're going to let you lie low and lurk in plain sight for the next week and 1/2 or so? I don't think so.

mod

please prod kilem.

At this point, I'd say kilem is more scummy as compared to yesterday, because of her behaviour on the lynch.

[Nocmen]

ac1983fan, why do you seem to always have an excuse when you come under fire? IIRC, you still havent given your explanation of the long list of posts you said were scummy yesterday either.

[kilmenator]

Still around, something to come later, only I dont know how much later... sorry...

[Barromán]

Would still like responses from ac1983fan, kilmenator, and Barroman for [368]. Would also like response from ac1983fan for [380].

Sorry, sorry and SORRY.

Some days ago, I've got some personal problems that didn't let me be as active as I wanted. All these familiar problems seem to be better so I'll be more active from right now. Sorry again. Because of these, I didn't read a pair of pages, so I didn't read that post to me. I've just readed all thes new stuff and I'll answer you:

I think that ac1983fan could be a pro-town role... and now, re-reading your analisys, Javert, of the vote-wagon over Ancagalon... y see suspicius Elias.

At the begining I see suspicius him, I have this write down, and it's "curious" that if he voted Ancagalon at the begining now he didn't voted him...

[Javert]

look, I'm busy right now and won't be able to make an in depth anaysis for the next week and 1/2.

sorry,

Still around, something to come later, only I dont know how much later...

sorry

...

Sorry, sorry and SORRY

.<snip>

Quite a bit of "sorry"-ing going on lately.

Just read up on Ancalagon's posts as Sweenytodd did earlier, and this post caught my eye the most:

I've still not seen any analysis from you on the stuff that isn't missing.

That's because I want you to answer my questions as well. I am analyzing, but some of the stuff that isn't missing is also attacking me, which I must defend.

From the most recent behavior, omg comes off as the most scummy. However, I can see him showing up as town, since his behavior has been consistent all game. Omg, perhaps insulting and yelling at people isn't the best way to play.

kilmenator comes off scummy, but not very. I can't see much hard evidence on his posts, they just don't seem right.

Here, Ancalagon gives two 'suspicions'. The first – and more strongly worded – is on omg_im_innocent_wtf, who has been shown to be town. Note how Ancalagon says he can "see him coming up town", which he also reiterates in a later post.

The second – and weakly worded – is on kilmenator. This may suggest a connection to kilmenator. However, his post [224], where he agrees with my suspicions on kilmenator, is enough to give me pause, although he seems to revert back to "middle of the road" territory very soon, in Post [335].

Post [335] is probably very telling, but it's difficult to draw conclusions from it this early in the game. At the time he made this post (which gives a list of who he considers scummy, not scummy, and 'not much of a read'), ac1983fan was at 4 of 6 votes, and nobody else had more than 1 vote. Given that, I don't think he made that post under the impression that he would be lynched that day, so he was not likely be making many red herrings to be pursued if he was to be lynched. About the only tentative conclusion I'm willing to draw is that if he has two or more partners, they would not all be within the same category.

Given my earlier suspicions and the (albeit weak) connection between Ancalagon and kilmenator, I will begin with a

Vote: kilmenator

.

[MeMe]

I agree that kilmenator should be the current focus.

vote: kilmenator