Hi Thor.
Here are my thoughts. I didn't want to share them clearly yesterday because I was still hoping you might get a mafia claim, but we're backing up to deadline. Feel free to call them dumb when I'm finished, but I surely do not think they are.
I think you're wrong about what the mafia's doing. The calculation is fundamentally different because you are confirmed town. If they followed your suggestion they wouldn't be fighting it out in a three person finale. There would only be two possible scum there.
If mafia claims and werewolf is lynched they enter tomorrow effectively down three to one, because the mafia who claimed will be lynched. And they just don't face a three to one disadvantage, they do so with a confirmed town in the mix who will certainly live to endgame.
If mafia claims and town is lynched the werewolf will kill the claimed mafia. Mafia enters tomorrow down one to two to one, with one confirmed town. Even if the werewolf is successfully lynched mafia still finds itself in an endgame with one confirmed town. If town is lynched mafia loses, killed unerringly by the wolf during the night because the remaining town is confirmed.
If mafia doesn't claim and the werewolf is lynched they are both free to push a mislynch tomorrow, with two unconfirmed targets to choose from and two of the three votes needed to lynch to get it. If they get it they win.
If mafia doesn't claim and town is lynched the werewolf might or might not chance a night kill. The wolf would have a two in three shot of getting mafia. If the wolf misses mafia wins. If the wolf hits the mafia are in no worse shape than they would be in the second of the two claiming scenarios.
Now all of the above is undeniable. It is simply the numbers of the situation we find ourselves in. Of the above the optimal play for mafia is to lynch the werewolf without claiming. Confirmed town makes the difference here, and the reduced chance of a werewolf who survived today missing mafia is still better than that werewolf having a confirmed target. Even if the werewolf did hit an unclaimed mafia tonight, and avoided being lynched tomorrow, tomorrow night would still present the wolf with a dilemma as to who it should kill and a wrong choice would hand mafia the win.
But there is a third scenario here. Mafia does not claim and mafia gets lynched today. If this happens wolf will kill confirmed town tonight. The situation is then one two one tomorrow without a confirmed town. Wolf will try to trick town into lynching mafia. Mafia will try to work with town to find the wolf. If the wolf is lynched mafia will go into the last day with a true three way lylo. If town is lynched wolf will have a shot at killing mafia but without a confirmed town and so with a chance of missing. If mafia is lynched, of course, the wolf would win.
I feel certain as I can that Reinoe and Not_Mafia are the mafia. I think they both voted Lia with the thought that if she was the wolf they could push through a lynch on me tomorrow. Either Lia would flip town and they'd have either a fair chance of Mjaiffy killing me, or if Majiffy decided to stay in, tomorrow they could make me Majiffy's partner or maybe Reinoe's partner (but, Not_mafia would say bravely, I'm more sure about Justin, so I'm going to vote him)...or Lia would flip wolf and I could still get a new partner. Probably not Not_Mafia's though. He's the cleaner, slicker one.
But I think their second option would be to get the dirtier of their pair lynched today. It would assure the removal from town of the Seer, and leave them with a chance to aid in the lynch of the werewolf tomorrow, with a clean lylo ahead, or at worst putting themselves into the hands of the wolf with no confirmed town for the wolf to avoid.
Reinoe's dirty as can be. He is scum, so the only question left is whether he's wolf or mafia. The Lulu Can't Carry was obviously a fake breadcrumb. One of Lulu's big storylines (I read her whole wiki entry on the General Hospital wiki) involved her awaking from a cryogenic sleep and having a series of visions in which her memory returned which led her to identify the killer of her boyfriend and the person who put her in the cryogenic sleep. It makes no sense in any other context.
I know, Not_Mafia, sometimes Katarina suffered bouts of delirium during which she would post bits of soap opera trivia.
But here's the thing. Reinoe has posted moon logic a good four times now. He's drawn attention to the phrase in every way he can, and even though he called it moonlogic he then posted majiffy and I as mafia in his actual read. I mean, if you're going to identify Reinoe as scum, and I most certainly do, that would be some pretty brazen wording for a werewolf. But it makes a certain sense as a mafia play. Reinoe knows he looks dirty. But if we go in to tomorrow with the wolf still loose we have to lynch mafia. That's not likely to be not_mafia, though I think he's Reinoe's partner. But it could certainly be Reinoe. And what better way for a player who seems pretty scummy to make sure he doesn't get lynched as mafia than to be identified as the wolf?
And you know, Reinoe's posting has been pretty cool today. He's controlled his tone pretty well. But not here:
In post 733, reinoe wrote: In post 730, Justin Playfair wrote:You might also think about Reinoe's Moon logic theory and consider the implications of his presenting one of those.
Really? That's quite a smug insinuation to make. If your theories and arguments are so sound then why haven't you solved this game?
In post 675, reinoe wrote:I have some insane moonlogic for who I think the two mafia are, but since it's moonlogic I'm putting it in spoilers. This theory was so wonky I said I wasn't willing to share it but this game is starting to enter bizarro world so maybe moonlogic will help solve it...
Also why don't you stop spreading paranoia and go out and say what you really want to say? At least I had the decency to admit I was using moonlogic, instead of spouting off garbage and trying to pass it off as credible.
You know, it almost reads like he knew what I was going to post.
Anyway, my vote's on Majiffy because I think he's the wolf. I think the night kills make more sense for a Majiffy wolf than anyone else and that wagoning a player like Ninja was a far more useful in guaranteeing a wolf win than keeping him around.
