433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[Dasquian]

Mod edit:

Southpaw: 1 (thorgot)
The fonz: 3 (CES, string sweenytod.)
thorgot: 1 (dasq)
Sweenytod: 1(thefonz)

For the hudredth bloody time, Dodgy has already outed himself if Doc!

Ordinarily, I would agree. Dodgy is a special case though, since his motives

as a player at that point

are in question. This, with CES' retraction, has put what could have been a doc claim back into question (I know you agree with me on this, because you are questioning it!).

I agree that WIFOM with Dodgy tomorrow is nasty. However, we're already in for that if the mafia so choose it - they simply have to not kill him. What this boils down to is:

a) You think it's better to not risk complicating tomorrow's potential WIFOM with the additional factor of the mafia's confusion.
b) I think it's better to confuse the mafia and potentially give the doctor another day, or even negate a night-kill.

They're both valid stances; however I feel very strongly that (b) is a lot better for the town than (a). CES can be investigated if necessary, another doc can counter-claim later if necessary, and so the WIFOM can be mitigated and doesn't guarantee failure. By that time, we'll also have some dead players, and any dead scum might help clear things up too.

To answer your questions:

a) A pro-town player who is not CES dies tonight -> depends who it is. If it's the doctor, vote CES If not, then yes, we should talk about it; I refuse to make any declarations of exactly how I'd handle it because I don't know until it happens, and it'd give the mafia an angle to direct me.
b) No one at all dies tonight. -> I'd probably feel vindicated. I doubt the mafia would skip their kill, so the lack of kill means either CES isn't the doc but the doc protected him, or CES is the doc but the mafia thought he wasn't and killed who CES protected. Neither of these things will happen if the mafia know if CES is the doc or not, though.

[The Fonz]

Right, that last Dasq post actually made sense. I don't agree, but it makes sense. However, there are a couple things...

CES can be investigated if necessary, another doc can counter-claim later if necessary, and so the WIFOM can be mitigated and doesn't guarantee failure. By that time, we'll also have some dead players, and any dead scum might help clear things up too.

What if CES gets investigated

and

killed? And surely another doc counterclaiming later outs himself?

a) A pro-town player who is not CES dies tonight -> depends who it is. If it's the doctor, vote CES

I don't like this, but I can't quite put my finger on

why

.

b) No one at all dies tonight. -> I'd probably feel vindicated. I doubt the mafia would skip their kill, so the lack of kill means either CES isn't the doc but the doc protected him, or CES is the doc but the mafia thought he wasn't and killed who CES protected. Neither of these things will happen if the mafia know if CES is the doc or not, though.

Or the doc protected someone completely different, and the scum decided to leave CES alive to play WIFOM, and got unlucky... or, the no-kill, about the possibility of which I think you're being overly dismissive.

To try to make some headway here- how would you feel about an agreement to push CES into claiming first thing in the morning, provided he survives the night?

[Dasquian]

I don't like this, but I can't quite put my finger on why.

You know what? Neither do I. It's supposed to have been a trivial bit of flippancy, but I was wrong to assume that dead doctor == scum Dodgy/CES. As I've been saying, Dodgy

could

have been pro-town and lied about being the doctor. So I retract that. However, I would not like to be in CES' shoes tomorrow if someone else dies overnight and is the doctor.

To try to make some headway here- how would you feel about an agreement to push CES into claiming first thing in the morning, provided he survives the night?

I don't want to make any deals based on information we haven't got. By tomorrow, we will have other stuff to go on. Secondly, I don't want to tell the mafia exactly what happens if they do or don't kill CES. That said, it sounds like a reasonable plan.

I don't think I have much more to add on this one - The Fonz and I simply disagree, and I don't think him much scummier for it. Unless there's a move to press CES from several other people, I move that we find a different target. thorgot's my current favourite.

[The Fonz]

I don't want to make any deals based on information we haven't got. By tomorrow, we will have other stuff to go on. Secondly, I don't want to tell the mafia exactly what happens if they do or don't kill CES. That said, it sounds like a reasonable plan.

Fair enough. I do think we can't go on forever without a claim.

I don't think I have much more to add on this one - The Fonz and I simply disagree, and I don't think him much scummier for it. Unless there's a move to press CES from several other people, I move that we find a different target. thorgot's my current favourite.

Agreed, there's no reason for CES to claim without pressure, and it's quite obvious I won't get it applied however long I argue for it. My number one other suspect is where my vote currently resides.

[superstring91]

I'm feeling a bit suspicious of superstring and fonzy. I know i said i bought Fonz as town before, but his recent behaviour has made me a bit more apprehensive of him. superstring seems overaggressive to me, its more of a gut feeling on my part, he seems a bit opportunistic to me. Eletrair and dom:inc both seem to be fence-sitting a bit (dom:inc hasn't commented for a while though).

i get the whole gut feeling thing, but do you have any reasoning why im suspicious?

i will be out of town tomorrow through sunday. i am caught up, and will catch up when i return.

[Eletriar]

Secondly, I don't want to tell the mafia exactly what happens if they do or don't kill CES.

Dasquian - thank you.

Discussing CES, as Dasquian had pointed out about two pages ago, is probably going to do more harm than help at this point; I think at this point we should just drop the issue - already, we probably have discussed this enough to make tomorrow hell - and move on. I think I've probably said this before, but... ah, whatever. I'll add my thoughts to it, and just let it be.

I'm a little curious to know why Fonz pushes the issue... but I suppose I just disagree. If he claims in full, he's more likely to be killed as of not. If he doesn't, then there's a chance that we'll have no kill at night - giving us a little more time. I'm not going to go into the 'what if' scenario game, though, as it's been already exhausted and overplayed.

Oh - and I may or may not be here from tomorrow to Saturday/Sunday, considering that I have yet (another) thing to go to out-of-town. This time it's a graduation.

[superstring91]

I'm feeling a bit suspicious of superstring and fonzy. I know i said i bought Fonz as town before, but his recent behaviour has made me a bit more apprehensive of him. superstring seems overaggressive to me, its more of a gut feeling on my part, he seems a bit opportunistic to me. Eletrair and dom:inc both seem to be fence-sitting a bit (dom:inc hasn't commented for a while though).

i get the whole gut feeling thing, but do you have any reasoning why im suspicious?

i will be out of town tomorrow through sunday. i am caught up, and will catch up when i return.

EBWOP

the question i was trying to ask was:
how am i opportunistic?

[pete d]

@ superstring: Your votes on gorckat and Fonzy seemed opportunistic to me. there ya go.

@ gorckat: When I said that I bought Fonzy as town, it was before he started attacking CES. Fonzy's actions since then I don't agree with. I thought that should have been obvious from my post:

I know i said i bought Fonz as town before, but his recent behaviour has made me a bit more apprehensive of him.

minor FoS: gorckat

for misrepresentation. I say minor, because it seemed like a minor point from your post.

I don't like how dom:inc suddenly appeared when I said he was getting suspicious, and immediately joined in the FOS'ers on Fonzy. Now it could be a coincidence i guess, but I still find it suspicious.

[The Fonz]

If he doesn't, then there's a chance that we'll have no kill at night - giving us a little more time.

.

Sigh, I keep trying to stay away from this argument, but a no-kill is not necessarily good for town...

[gorckat]

This does kind of go back on my previous posts, but I'm not sure this was brought up in Fonz's LAL reason for voting Dodgy/CES:

Correct me if I'm wrong but you have only been playing for a couple of weeks and

being privy to all members lists and their IP addresses

, I can see that you havn't been a player before that date under a different name, so I ask again, are you really experienced enough to make such a statement?

It was stated that he doesn't have that ability. Is that a sufficient lie to warrant a lynch? Or is LAL generally kept to in-game lies? I'm gonna review real quick to see if that was touched on.

Here:

There is a VERY good chance that we have 3 Scum in this game and my guess is that you've all be outed in day 1.
I think the 3 scum are The Fonz, Dasquian and superstring91.
All 3 of you know that I'm not scum and thats why you are all going in for the kill and to get people onside.

also leaves me a little skeptical. Sounds a little desperate even there and reads like a scum appealing to the townies with the "you know I'm innocent"...doesn't feel like the ideal townie defense I'd be looking for. More OMGUS than "here's why I'm on the town's side"

I only bring these points up because I don't recall off-hand if they were already and I hadn't looked at Dodgy's stuff except when re-reading as a whole, and then just went with CES after he quit.

[Dasquian]

I really don't know how much of Dodgy's response to the (fairly minimal) pressure we can actually use. He was clearly overreacting and, as I've touched on already with the claim but extending to everything he said, he could well have been coming from an angle that was neither pro- nor anti-town - just irrational.

As such I'm inclined to base very little on his later posts, however my overall impression is of a townie bowing out rather than a scum doing so. This is mostly because I find the concept of qutting the game as a scum tactic abhorrent as it is nonsensical within the context of the game, and so that's a line I hope not very many people would cross.

[The Fonz]

I agree almost entirely with Dasq. I don't think analysing Dodgy at this point is going to get us very far.

[dom:inc]

I don't like how dom:inc suddenly appeared when I said he was getting suspicious, and immediately joined in the FOS'ers on Fonzy. Now it could be a coincidence i guess, but I still find it suspicious.

Only a minor point but, you actually said "Eletrair and dom:inc both seem to be fence-sitting a bit (dom:inc hasn't commented for a while though)." nothing about me being suspicious thus far So i figured i'd update you on my thoughts. Is that suspicious? Being asked to post (if indirectly) so then posting

Chances are i was tabbed away from an open reply anyway and didn't even see your post. Also, i was the first person to FOS fonz since dodgy left the game... but anyway, you were saying something about misrepresentation i believe?

I've been thinking about my FOS on fonz anyway and although i do find his pushing suspicious he seems inherently pro-town. So i'm gonna

un-FOS: The Fonz

even though i'm not sure i've seen anyone un-fos before...

[Sweenytodd]

Well, I think that in moving away from this claim discussion here is what we should all do moving forward... I think we should put together a list of who we think are most likely to be town and most likely to be scum. This will help see what issues people have be they specific or more general "I don't get a good feeling from player X"


I am suspicious or (in no particular order)

1. Fonz (less so than when I voted him.. I think he sticks out because he posts the most and goes out on a limb for his points of view which while I disagree with him at times I think is wonderful.)

2. Killmenator (I was re-reading everyone's posts in isolation and I haven't liked her last couple posts, can't quite finger what it is specifically.)

I am getting "Townie" vibes from

1. Dasquian (I didn't like his early bandwagon but I think thats mostly my inexperience talking and I have REALLY liked his last couple pages)

2. Pete d (I definitely get good vibes from your logic)

PEOPLE WHO NEED TO POST MORE:

1. Gorckat
2. Thorgot
3. CES... you checked in and then disappeared...
4. Me... as a self-reminder = )

[Dasquian]

Sounds fair.

Town (in no particular order):

The Fonz - with the exception of the last couple of pages, nearly everything he's posted I've gotten a good vibe from. Even the last couple of pages, I can see where he's coming from.
Dodgy/CES - As described above.

Lots of people occupy the mid-ground where I get a gut feeling of town, but with no great certainty - superstring, Southpaw, dom:inc, gorckat, pete d.

Suspect (in no particular order):

thorgot - He doesn't feel scummy, because he's lurking far too much to do anything scummy. Honestly, this is minimal effort right here.
Sweenytodd - Odd vibes. Early on he seemed to eager to point the finger at me and Fonz for bandwagonning Dodgy, recently he seemed eager to point the finger at Fonz for trying to get a role-claim. Seemed a little "obvious", but slightly OMGUS-by-proxy on my part since I get town vibes from the Fonz.
Eletriar - Slightly too non-committal about everything for my liking.
kilmenator - A few posts earlier on caught my eye for being wordy without actually putting down a firm opinion.

[pete d]

@ dom:inc : 1. Me saying you were fence-sitting implied that I found that a bit suspicious 2. yeah, I guess I didn't really pay much attention to the order of FoS's, there just seemed to be a general vibe against Fonzy, and super had already voted him. And you would have had to have had the reply tab open for about an hour. It just seemed to me like you were absent through most of the discussion, then popped in and agreed with the majority of the town.

[Thestatusquo]

Pete_d has informed me that he will be away for the next two days

[dom:inc]

pete d. if i have the internet connected, i have World of Warcraft running, that's how i role. It's not uncommon for me to have a reply written and sitting in either the reply or quick reply tab for longer than an hour, which is why i noted that i might not have seen your post (i saw that it was only an hour before mine). Had it been a day or so then i wouldn't have made a point of it.

It just seemed to me like you were absent through most of the discussion, then popped in and agreed with the majority of the town.

popped in and agreed with the majority of the town eh... mind sharing with the rest of us exactly who the town is comprised of? will make the game a lot easier for us

[superstring91]

please note that this post is me thinking out loud

i don't think we should lynch CES today

lets look at possibilites
1. he actually is a doc. [oh shit, we just lost a doc]
2. he is a townie [meh, we lynched a townie]
3. he is mafia [woohoo.]

i half would like to hear him claim.
lets look at his possible claims, and outcomes of said claim.
1. doc/not lynched
2. vanilla/lynched

the only way for him to live is if he claims doc. what if he is actually vanilla? we lost a townie, and we will lose more in the night, putting us in an unpleasant situation.

if he claims vanilla i am inclined to believe him. solely because of dodgy's actions.
that said, fonz said that we should hold him accountable for dodgy's actions.
i have a slightly different view on this:
we should analyze the difference between their posts.
like if someone replaces someone scummy and then is himself more town-like, i would suspect him as scum more than i would as town.

i would rather lynch someone scummy than lynch someone based on LAL, especially in this case, where we don't know a lot about him.

we should let him claim, and then watch his posts.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'll claim when I'm in danger of being lynched or during a mass claim, just like any other game. Giving information is always a bad idea.

I feel like hopping on a bandwagon, but Dodgy already voted for the dude with the most votes. This is a sad state of affairs. You people should vote more.

[The Fonz]

Then why not come up with a few reasons and get a wagon of your own rolling, eh CES?

[pete d]

why not.

vote: kilmenator

. she seems to be lurking a bit; i don't like her last two posts, seems a bit contradictory saying that we shouldn't focus on CES, but that she finds CES scummy. It's like she was trying to both make CES out to be scummy but distance herself at the same time. I also don't like how she suggests that potential doc's should leave hints.

[kilmenator]

why not.

vote: kilmenator

. she seems to be lurking a bit; i don't like her last two posts, seems a bit contradictory saying that we shouldn't focus on CES, but that she finds CES scummy. It's like she was trying to both make CES out to be scummy but distance herself at the same time. I also don't like how she suggests that potential doc's should leave hints.

Let me explain what I meant in the posts. What I meant was that I find it semi-scummy that CES retracted Dodgy's claim. I find it likely that it could all be fluff being that Dodgy was an experienced player and I can not imagine him making such a silly move as doc. Claiming with two votes on you is complete stupidity and I doubt Dodgy, being as experienced as he was would do that.

That logic doesnt work, either he is the doctor or he is a townie, you are forgetting the other possiblility,

it is that he is scum trying to get a doc to out themselves

... it could be many things, at this point, if there is another Doc,

I dont think it is wise for them to come out, however, they need to make it a point to somehow in the thread give us something to back up (if he has to later)

his claim to innocence. At this point though, I think Dodgy was the doc, and we will find out tonight, because I am sure that scum will make him their target tonight if he is truly the doc, at this point we need to focus our attention elsewhere.

In many games that I play as doc, I use my own little way of telling people what my role is so that if there is a counterclaim later, I can point out where earlier in the game I claimed, but did not really let people know I claimed. I am not saying anyone should use my way of doing so, but sometimes I will use the first letter of each sentence I use to spell out I AM DOC or something like that. Just so if there is a counter claim later, I have something other than the claim I have just made to back it up. Not once in a game has anyone found me out before I claimed. I wanted to make it clear that the real doc should not out himself at this point, but in some strategic way should give us a way to know he is the real doc so that if this comes back to haunt us in endgame we can have a little more than just claims to go on.

As I said before, I think we need a true claim from CES because tomorrow the game is going to be sooooo full of WIFOM it isnt even going to be funny.

[The Fonz]

The problem is, that I AM DOC thing can equally be played by scum claiming Doc, and if they end up not doing so, no-one notices anyway.

Dodgy claimed to have hinted strongly that he was Doc prior to outing himself, and claimed I was incredibly stupid for not seeing it.

[gorckat]

vote: thorgot

for contributing even less than I have and only weighing in around Dodgy with a joke about Fonz's guilt.