433: Dry, bland, generic mafia: Game Over

[Sweenytodd]

MOD EDIT.

Southpaw: 1 (thorgot)
gorckat: 1 ( superstring)
The fonz:2 (CES, sweenytod.)
thorgot: 1 (dasq)

Oh I get it now....

FFS, if he's not mafia, the scum already know he's likely powerrole! If he's not a powerrole, he's lying anyway and still needs lynching.

If he is a power role as Dodgy claimed then we ought to lynch him or out him? And if he is not a power role and simply trying to salvage the poor game he replaced into we ought to lynch him to save the Mafia a NK they could use for someone... God this discussion is frustrating... The point is not to out all of the targets for the mafia it is to FIND the mafia. There is no claim he could make to appease you nor should he... If he acts scummy, THEN we can lynch him but so far you are holding him accountable for a predacessor's insane actions as if this drama has ANYTHING to do with the game. Dodgy messed up... He shouldn't have claimed... That said CES definitely shouldn't claim.

If he is the doc, he's ALREADY outed himself!

If Dodgy's claim is in any way believeable... Which it isn't... And there is no good that can come from lynching CES in that position... You popose that CES is the Doc, who retracted a claim, and thus should be lynched if he claims vanilla... So best case scenario... We lose our Doc N1, bad play Dodgy. Otherwise, CES claims vanilla and we lynch him he turns up Doc.... Bad Play Fonz.... If CES claims vanilla and turns up mafia that would be one thing but I don't see it yet.

[Eletriar]

So... we're back to this. If he's mafia, he'll not die N1. If he isn't then either mafia will kill him to make things easier, or leave him alive, in what point d2 is going to be interesting at best. That's pretty much what's already been said. So I say we go after the other people who look suspicious and see what happens, but I don't know if that's a smart play or not.

[superstring91]

fonz, i really dont think you should be pushing on CES so hard right now.
we've driven the discussion about him into the ground.
dodgy was an ass.
we should not lynch CES just because of what dodgy has done. we need to see how he acts.
that being said, i will stick by my scumlist and

vote:fonz

[pete d]

I'm not going to comment at my role at this time. I see no convincing reason to claim, so I'm not going to give the scum any role information.

I agree with this 100%. I don't like how the Fonz has gone after CES so rabidly.

CES isn't very suspicious, but he did retract a doctor claim, and being "definitely town" is a death warrant.

The Fonz, for attacking Dodgy, isn't very suspicious to me, because he is drawing too much attention.

Gorckat isn't very suspicious to me, because he is so inactive.

Dasquian, I find you somewhat suspicious, because you are that perfect level between Gorckat and The Fonz, being active and helpful but not offending anybody.

This doesn't really make sense to me at all, particularly the last point. It sounds to me like someone who isn't paying much attention to the game.

I'm feeling a bit suspicious of superstring and fonzy. I know i said i bought Fonz as town before, but his recent behaviour has made me a bit more apprehensive of him. superstring seems overaggressive to me, its more of a gut feeling on my part, he seems a bit opportunistic to me. Eletrair and dom:inc both seem to be fence-sitting a bit (dom:inc hasn't commented for a while though).

[dom:inc]

Its interesting to see that everyone thinks CES shouldn't claim yet Fonz is still pushing for one.

You

can

retract a claim without denying it... CES has done just that. I think Dodgy's claim, in light of the situation at the time, cannot be trusted. There are too many possibilities (draw fire, mafia trying to out doc, is the doc, yada yada) for us to know whether it was more likely true or false, so why ponder on it?

Dodgy and CES are the same person. One of them lied.

How can they be one person, yet

one

of them lied, that makes them two people playing the same role. We have no proof yet to even remotely suggest which of them lied and so can't just lynch CES cos he's the one playing the role now. And anyway... CES hasn't stated whether or not he is or isn't the doc yet so hasn't even made a statement that could be true or false. He just retracted the claim, it could still go either way.

Sure having a player out there with a role we're unsure on isn't very good but then, we're unsure on everyone's roles thus far so why push for a lynch on someone that's just joined the game. You may have been getting somewhere with dodgy (no longer in the game remember) but CES is new to the game. We can't hold Dodgy's actions against him and imo, we've just lost a couple of pages. Nothing to q_q over.

FOS: The Fonz

(opening sentance)

[Dasquian]

Hmm. I am going to have to

FOS: The Fonz

simply because I don't think he's done good town play re: CES. That said, I think there is a very good chance he

thinks

he has been doing good town play, and overall I would not say I get a major scummy vibe from him - if he is mafia, he's certainly going for lynch kill with no regards for subtlety (usual WIFOM disclaimers).

Because my gut tells me Fonzy is an aggressive townie, mild FOS on the people who voted him. I think he's wrong, not evil, but it's a great excuse to bandwagon him.

And I still want to hear more from thorgot Essentially, my belief on D1 is that with a veritable smorgasbord of potential lynchees, we should pick the ones who don't post as much over the ones who make themselves a target, unless we have some good degree of certainty. It gives us a stronger end-game situation and it's sound in the metagame too.

[The Fonz]

MOD EDIT.

Southpaw: 1 (thorgot)
gorckat: 1 ( superstring)
The fonz:2 (CES, sweenytod.)
thorgot: 1 (dasq)

Oh I get it now....

FFS, if he's not mafia, the scum already know he's likely powerrole! If he's not a powerrole, he's lying anyway and still needs lynching.

If he is a power role as Dodgy claimed then we ought to lynch him or out him? And if he is not a power role and simply trying to salvage the poor game he replaced into we ought to lynch him to save the Mafia a NK they could use for someone... God this discussion is frustrating... The point is not to out all of the targets for the mafia it is to FIND the mafia. There is no claim he could make to appease you nor should he... If he acts scummy, THEN we can lynch him but so far you are holding him accountable for a predacessor's insane actions as if this drama has ANYTHING to do with the game. Dodgy messed up... He shouldn't have claimed... That said CES definitely shouldn't claim.

This is just flat out, and obvious misrepresentation.

If he is a power role as Dodgy claimed then we ought to lynch him or out him?

Nope, if he is a power role we definitely shouldn't lynch him. As I said before, we're not going to out him because he has already outed himself.

And if he is not a power role and simply trying to salvage the poor game he replaced into we ought to lynch him to save the Mafia a NK they could use for someone.

Do you not understand the concept of lynch all liars?

If he is the doc, he's ALREADY outed himself!

If Dodgy's claim is in any way believeable... Which it isn't... And there is no good that can come from lynching CES in that position...

You popose that CES is the Doc, who retracted a claim, and thus should be lynched if he claims vanilla... So best case scenario... We lose our Doc N1, bad play Dodgy. Otherwise, CES claims vanilla and we lynch him he turns up Doc.... Bad Play Fonz.... If CES claims vanilla and turns up mafia that would be one thing but I don't see it yet.

1. I do not propose that he is doc who retracted a claim, I propose that as of right now, I don't know what the hell he is, but the mafia probably do.

I wouldn't even put it past dodgy that he might have been a different powerrole. Think about it, if he's trying to screw the town, and hence me, what better than to get one powerrole lynched and the other outed day one? The best case scenario right now for town is him dying night one.

If he survives, we're in the same confusing position we are in now. Like i said before, WIFOM central.

2. Why the hell would he claim vanilla, then turn up doc? That's ridiculous craplogic.

Vote: Sweenytodd

Its interesting to see that everyone thinks CES shouldn't claim yet Fonz is still pushing for one.

That's because you're wrong, the continuing confusion hurts the town, and I'm doing my damnedest to demonstrate

why

.

You

can

retract a claim without denying it... CES has done just that. I think Dodgy's claim, in light of the situation at the time, cannot be trusted. There are too many possibilities (draw fire, mafia trying to out doc, is the doc, yada yada) for us to know whether it was more likely true or false, so why ponder on it?

Let's look at those three possibilities.

a) Is exactly the situation for which LAL was devised, should lynch him.
b) Explain why we shouldn't lynch him in this case?
c) Shouldn't lynch him.

Dodgy and CES are the same person. One of them lied.

How can they be one person, yet

one

of them lied, that makes them two people playing the same role. We have no proof yet to even remotely suggest which of them lied and so can't just lynch CES cos he's the one playing the role now.

But... they are playing the same role! For game purposes, they

are

the same person. You also say you don't know 'which one of them lied.' That implies that one of them definitely lied. Which completely contradicts what you said in the first paragraph.

Sure having a player out there with a role we're unsure on isn't very good but then, we're unsure on everyone's roles thus far so why push for a lynch on someone that's just joined the game.

No, we have no idea of anyone else's role. We can see Dodgy might well be the doc, and more importantly, so can the mafia. So he's a likely nightkill candidate already (therefore if he is powerrole, best to claim, so the town have as much info as the scum do) and him not dying will leave us in the same, confused, position again tomorrow.

You may have been getting somewhere with dodgy (no longer in the game remember) but CES is new to the game. We can't hold Dodgy's actions against him and imo, we've just lost a couple of pages. Nothing to q_q over.

FOS: The Fonz

(opening sentance)

This is unsettling. In general, you have to hold people to the actions of the predecessor. If I were replaced right now, would you give my replacement a free pass on everything I said and did? Even when you find me so scummy?

[Southpaw]

Hmm. I am going to have to

FOS: The Fonz

simply because I don't think he's done good town play re: CES. That said, I think there is a very good chance he

thinks

he has been doing good town play, and overall I would not say I get a major scummy vibe from him - if he is mafia, he's certainly going for lynch kill with no regards for subtlety (usual WIFOM disclaimers).

I have to agree with Das. I find it unlikely that scum would keep pushing an issue in which most of the town is against. It's generally bad policy for mafia to do anything that puts the spotlight on them.

[The Fonz]

EBWODP, to get out what I'm actually saying re: Sweenytodd.

Oh I get it now....

If he is a power role as Dodgy claimed then we ought to lynch him or out him? And if he is not a power role and simply trying to salvage the poor game he replaced into we ought to lynch him to save the Mafia a NK they could use for someone... God this discussion is frustrating... The point is not to out all of the targets for the mafia it is to FIND the mafia. There is no claim he could make to appease you nor should he... If he acts scummy, THEN we can lynch him but so far you are holding him accountable for a predacessor's insane actions as if this drama has ANYTHING to do with the game. Dodgy messed up... He shouldn't have claimed... That said CES definitely shouldn't claim.

This is just flat out, and obvious misrepresentation.

If he is a power role as Dodgy claimed then we ought to lynch him or out him?

Nope, if he is a power role we definitely shouldn't lynch him. As I said before, we're not going to out him because he has already outed himself.

And if he is not a power role and simply trying to salvage the poor game he replaced into we ought to lynch him to save the Mafia a NK they could use for someone.

Do you not understand the concept of lynch all liars?

If he is the doc, he's ALREADY outed himself!

If Dodgy's claim is in any way believeable... Which it isn't... And there is no good that can come from lynching CES in that position...

You popose that CES is the Doc, who retracted a claim, and thus should be lynched if he claims vanilla... So best case scenario... We lose our Doc N1, bad play Dodgy. Otherwise, CES claims vanilla and we lynch him he turns up Doc.... Bad Play Fonz.... If CES claims vanilla and turns up mafia that would be one thing but I don't see it yet.

1. I do not propose that he is doc who retracted a claim, I propose that as of right now, I don't know what the hell he is, but the mafia probably do.

I wouldn't even put it past dodgy that he might have been a different powerrole. Think about it, if he's trying to screw the town, and hence me, what better than to get one powerrole lynched and the other outed day one? The best case scenario right now for town is him dying night one.

If he survives, we're in the same confusing position we are in now. Like i said before, WIFOM central.

2. Why the hell would he claim vanilla, then turn up doc? That's ridiculous craplogic.

Vote: Sweenytodd

[kilmenator]

I agree that if he is not scum he will not die tonight, but I also like the "lynch all liars rule" if he is now claiming vanilla, he is basically playing head games with us. He is either the doc, or scum, or townie, but being that he already claimed doc, I find it extremely scummy that the claim was retracted. I would like to second the request for a true role claim, I do agree that we should not lynch someone just because of their predecessor. More comment later.

[The Fonz]

He's not claiming vanilla, atm he's not claiming anything. I just think if he genuinely is a power role, the cat's out the bag for the scum anyway, so not claiming only serves to confuse the town.

[Southpaw]

What good would having him claim do anyways? If he says he's mafia, he's dead. If he says he's a townie, he's also dead. So no matter what he is, if he's forced into a roleclaim he'll just say that he's the doctor.

[The Fonz]

What good would having him claim do anyways? If he says he's mafia, he's dead. If he says he's a townie, he's also dead. So no matter what he is, if he's forced into a roleclaim he'll just say that he's the doctor.

Untrue. If he's town, saving his own skin should take a back seat to giving the town accurate information, so getting lynched ought to be preferable to surviving by lying. He should claim truthfully, even if it means his own lynching. If he's scum, of course, it makes sense to claim doc, but it also makes sense to claim that if

he actually is

the doc. Vanilla is the only claim that ought to get him lynched, but he should still claim VT if that is what he, in fact, is.

[gorckat]

I'm alive- Net at work was done since last Wednesday and my home life has been crazy (b-day party with my daughter, best friend bought a house and is moving- loads of drama).

I'll try to catch up today.

[Dasquian]

Untrue. If he's town, saving his own skin should take a back seat to giving the town accurate information, so getting lynched ought to be preferable to surviving by lying.

But, he hasn't lied, by your own admission he's not claiming anything. Your original stance was pursuing a contradiction between Dodgy and CES, but you seem to have backed down from that?

You haven't demonstrated that it's in the town's interests for him to claim at this point; sure, it's been a talking point, but we don't benefit from him claiming.

- If he's scum, he'll claim doctor anyway and we (presumably) won't lynch him.
- If he is the doctor, the mafia probably knew that as soon as Dodgy claimed.
- If he's not the doctor, the mafia probably assumed he was the doctor as soon as Dodgy claimed.

Why does it help

the town

for CES to clarify which? The only benefit I can see to getting a definite answer is for the scum, who know whether or not to target him, and if he

isn't

the doctor, this discussion is putting stress on the real doctor, once again, making things easier for the scum.

Tomorrow, he'll either be dead and we'll be glad we didn't waste a lynch on him, or he'll be alive and we will be in no different a situation to if CES had not retracted the claim - as soon as anyone claims doctor, the mafia have the opportunity for WIFOM shenanigans, the claim retraction makes no odds to that.


gorckat - good to have you back, I'm happy to accept lack of access as an excuse if you leap headfirst into the discussion

[The Fonz]

Untrue. If he's town, saving his own skin should take a back seat to giving the town accurate information, so getting lynched ought to be preferable to surviving by lying.

But, he hasn't lied, by your own admission he's not claiming anything. Your original stance was pursuing a contradiction between Dodgy and CES, but you seem to have backed down from that?

You keep making out as if Dodgy and CES are completely unrelated. They're not. If one of them has lied, LAL applies to that player-role. You don't retract a genuine claim, it only confuses matters, and confusion helps the scum. The only good reason not to apply LAL is if there is a power role claim.

You haven't demonstrated that it's in the town's interests for him to claim at this point; sure, it's been a talking point, but we don't benefit from him claiming.

- If he's scum, he'll claim doctor anyway and we (presumably) won't lynch him.
- If he is the doctor, the mafia probably knew that as soon as Dodgy claimed.
- If he's not the doctor, the mafia probably assumed he was the doctor as soon as Dodgy claimed.

So you're accepting that if he is in fact, a powerrole, the scum pretty much know that anyway, so the only thing him not claiming does is keep information from the town? And yet you still think that's a good thing? If he's scum, his claiming or not neither helps nor hurts the town. I'm not opposing you here to create discussion: I'm opposing you because what you're suggesting is bad for the town. And if he claims vanilla, at the very worst we don't have the is he/isn't he farrago tomorrow (and the next day, and the next, until the scum either kill him or he is lynched).

Why does it help

the town

for CES to clarify which? The only benefit I can see to getting a definite answer is for the scum, who know whether or not to target him, and if he

isn't

the doctor, this discussion is putting stress on the real doctor, once again, making things easier for the scum.

I'll say this once and once only. If there is a doctor who isn't CES, he absolutely should not counterclaim him today. The advantage to the town is for everyone to have as much info on CES as possible, info the scum already have.

Tomorrow, he'll either be dead and we'll be glad we didn't waste a lynch on him

, or he'll be alive and we will be in no different a situation to if CES had not retracted the claim - as soon as anyone claims doctor, the mafia have the opportunity for WIFOM shenanigans, the claim retraction makes no odds to that.

What is bolded is pretty much the best case scenario right now. However, I disagree regarding if he's alive. If he's alive as a claimed doctor, and not counterclaimed tomorrow, we're in a far better position to know what's what than if the current situation persists and he lasts the night.

[Dasquian]

I'm not opposing you here to create discussion: I'm opposing you because what you're suggesting is bad for the town.

Ditto

You are asserting that it's good for us to know what Dodgy/CES is, because confusion is bad. Well, confusion for us is confusion for the mafia too. Obviously mafia have the edge on the "mafia" and "not-mafia" front, but when it comes to confusion between "doc" and "not-doc", that's the best confusion we can hope to maintain.

Currently he's a good candidate for being the doctor. He may not be the doctor. This gives the mafia chance to screw up tonight. If CES claims, it will spell out, in nice big letters, what the mafia should do. It will not actually assist the town in any real sense apart from set our curious minds at rest. Answer me this:

- What will you/should we do if he claims doctor?
- What will you/should we do if he claims another power-role?
- What will you/should we do if he claims plain townie?

Now, I'm guessing for at least one of the latter two, you would push for a lynch on the "LynchAllLiars" mantra. If he's town, and tells the truth, this will be a mistake. If he's mafia, why would he claim anything but doctor? So we either end up confirming the doctor for the mafia, or confirming another role for the mafia and considering lynching them, or getting a false doctor claim we wouldn't act on anyway.

[The Fonz]

I'm not opposing you here to create discussion: I'm opposing you because what you're suggesting is bad for the town.

Ditto

You are asserting that it's good for us to know what Dodgy/CES is, because confusion is bad. Well, confusion for us is confusion for the mafia too. Obviously mafia have the edge on the "mafia" and "not-mafia" front, but when it comes to confusion between "doc" and "not-doc", that's the best confusion we can hope to maintain.

But the only situation in which that seems to have us coming out ahead is if Dodgy/CES was a townie, lying about being a doctor, which is the precise situation for which LAL was created.

Currently he's a good candidate for being the doctor. He may not be the doctor. This gives the mafia chance to screw up tonight. If CES claims, it will spell out, in nice big letters, what the mafia should do. It will not actually assist the town in any real sense apart from set our curious minds at rest. Answer me this:

- What will you/should we do if he claims doctor?
- What will you/should we do if he claims another power-role?
- What will you/should we do if he claims plain townie?

1. Not lynch him.
2. Not lynch him. Suggest that the real doc protect him. If he claims something that's neither cop nor doc, have the cop investigate him.
3. Lynch him on the basis of LAL. Both for metagame reasons, and so we don't have this whole kerfuffle every single day. Besides- if he's not the doc, we cannot out him later without revealing the real doc.

Now, I'm guessing for at least one of the latter two, you would push for a lynch on the "LynchAllLiars" mantra. If he's town, and tells the truth, this will be a mistake. If he's mafia, why would he claim anything but doctor? So we either end up confirming the doctor for the mafia, or confirming another role for the mafia and considering lynching them, or getting a false doctor claim we wouldn't act on anyway.

But the mafia are likely to think he's the doctor anyway in the absence of a claim to the contrary. And without a claim as such, the mafia can play 'did they leave him alive because he's one of them?' Or because they disbelieved the claim? Or to make us think one of the first two was the case?'

[Dasquian]

Right, so you want to:

1. Out the doctor;
2. Out another power-role and have the doctor's night action be spoken for; or
3. Lynch a townie.

This is

not

a great plan.

[The Fonz]

Right, so you want to:

1. Out the doctor;
2. Out another power-role and have the doctor's night action be spoken for; or
3. Lynch a townie.

This is

not

a great plan.

For the hudredth bloody time, Dodgy has already outed himself if Doc! So I wouldn't be outing the doctor, simply reducing the ability of the scum to play WIFOM with us.

Your reaction to scenario two, for the first time, seems scummy rather than simply misguided. Having the doc's night action spoken for

in order to protect another power role

is not a bad thing. It's far preferable to having the same power role offed at night because the doctor couldn't be sure of his innocence.

And yes, on a metagame level, lynching anyone caught in a lie is always the right move.

As you're asking me what I'd do if X and Y, what do you think we should do if:

a) A pro-town player who is not CES dies tonight
b) No one at all dies tonight.

[The Fonz]

EBWODP: That's assuming CES doesn't claim and isn't lynched.

[gorckat]

I hope this is a cannonball and not a belly flop, Das

Dodgy: wow.

Now...

If we lynch CES:

-he's doc and mafia have a real sweet time picking off whomever they want
-he's scum and we all high-five each other
-he's vanilla (or something else) and we all (mafia, too!) shake our heads

If we don't lynch CES:

-he dies and is doc
-he dies and is something else
-he doesn't die but someone else does- mafia dump us into WIFOM fever
-no one dies- WIFOM fever on steroids

I'm in favor of not lynching CES. I think we learn more having a 'known unknown' than not having it. Rather than do the mafia's job for them, I say let them kill the doc and let's turn our attention towards the other 10 unknowns (12 minus CES and my/yourself). If he's around tomorrow we can deal with him.


Fonz does catch my eye. My first re-read through gave me the distinct impression he wants CES to either get lynched for lying or claim Doc and get NK'd.

He also had an indirect defense/affirmation of pete d (post 130) that seemed to be unwarranted. It just caught my eye when I read over it, but I'm not entirely sure why.

Looking back at pete's posts, he flipped on Fonz within 24 hours, so I need to go back there a little more later.

[gorckat]

ADD: I starter post 196 between 191 and 192 (stupid work getting in the way of my game )

As you're asking me what I'd do if X and Y, what do you think we should do if:

a) A pro-town player who is not CES dies tonight
b) No one at all dies tonight.

I'll also answer that since it could be directed to me after my post. I wasn't going to, but since it's come up even before

I

posited those scenarios:

a) vote CES
b) not vote CES

Worst case: CES as doc and 3 other townies die over next day/night

Which can happen if we lynch CES now, tomorrow or let the mafia do it tonight. Which is why I say let the scum do it for us and direct our attention elsewhere.

[The Fonz]

I hope this is a cannonball and not a belly flop, Das

Dodgy: wow.

Now...

If we lynch CES:

-he's doc and mafia have a real sweet time picking off whomever they want
-he's scum and we all high-five each other
-he's vanilla (or something else) and we all (mafia, too!) shake our heads

Isn't that basically the situation whenever anyone is lynched? What does this add?

If we don't lynch CES:

-he dies and is doc
-he dies and is something else

-he doesn't die but someone else does- mafia dump us into WIFOM fever
-no one dies- WIFOM fever on steroids

Both of these are truly horrible situations, the worst case possible for the town, and they're exactly what everyone else seems to want.

I'm in favor of not lynching CES. I think we learn more having a 'known unknown' than not having it. Rather than do the mafia's job for them, I say let them kill the doc and let's turn our attention towards the other 10 unknowns (12 minus CES and my/yourself). If he's around tomorrow we can deal with him.

Well yes! The only reason we should lynch him today is if he's DEFINITELY NOT A POWER ROLE!

Fonz does catch my eye. My first re-read through gave me the distinct impression he wants CES to either get lynched for lying or claim Doc and get NK'd.

As opposed to having WIFOMania for however long it takes us to realise that we should just have had him claim in the first place? Too right!

[gorckat]

I guess I was mostly thinking out loud with that first post. It didn't seem like all the possibilities were just laid out there at all- just pushing for one action or the other.

I see us potentially coming out ahead if we let CES alone for the moment- we can always lynch him tomorrow if he survives. Yes- we do have to entertain the chance that he is scum and could weasel out of a lynch.

If he's the doc, the mafia

have

to kill him. In my own experience in Newb 309, I convinced my partner to leave the claimed cop alive and that we could reason him out as scum. Partner got investigated and I pushed too hard Day 3 for the loss.

If they let a doc live, he might end up getting a protect in on the guy the decide to off. Which could end up being the cop- who knows.

If CES lives, then we need to look at who went down Day 1 and Night 1 and go from there. But if he dies, I see the town as one effective lynch to the good because they did our dirty work for us.

I think you and I are pushing for the same thing from opposite ends. You want CES taken out up front (Day 1) and I'm pushing for it from the other side (Day 2 with more context and possibly evidence of his innocence).