The Reckoning III (Math is Hard) Holy crap, perfect town win

[Axxle]

I didn't really give it much thought as to how many scum might be left. I assumed 4 total but with 19 it's might be more in your range. In that case double busing is more possible than I thought. I don't think it was from the same person though mostly because I have townreads on all of them (except maybe iecerint).

[Your New Gay Overlords]

I find it unlikely they were bused. I don't think scum would dig themselves so deep into a hole with two getting lynched in the first two days. The exception is mollie since they had set up that really tunnely interaction since day 1 and probably would look even worse if that was just dropped

Huh, alright, that fits with your Jordan vote, then.

I'm just completely unsure about Fate's early play. Skimming his iso right now; his meta/pushes on me were complete horse shit. He called Nuwen town. Okay. He

did

try to redirect the EagleKit wagon (first onto CDB; then onto Triforce). His whole high posting in thread thing seemed like...

really

fucking genuine though. Like, he legitimately thought he was enlightened and knew all, and his vote on me then seemed like it had conviction behind it. I think that's the main thing stopping me from lynching that slot. Fate, high as balls and on a massive trip through time and space and human cognition, wouldn't be able to be that genuine in his conviction on me. That's what's stopping me, here.

[Your New Gay Overlords]

I didn't really give it much thought as to how many scum might be left. I assumed 4 total but with 19 it's might be more in your range. In that case double busing is more possible than I thought. I don't think it was from the same person though mostly because I have townreads on all of them (except maybe iecerint).

Wait, huh?

You thought it was four, and you thought double bussing was not likely.

Now that you think it's three or four, you think double bussing is more possible.

What the haaaaaaaaaaaayl?

[Axxle]

I didn't really give it much thought as to how many scum might be left. I assumed 4 total but with 19 it's might be more in your range. In that case double busing is more possible than I thought. I don't think it was from the same person though mostly because I have townreads on all of them (except maybe iecerint).

Wait, huh?

You thought it was four, and you thought double bussing was not likely.

Now that you think it's three or four, you think double bussing is more possible.

What the haaaaaaaaaaaayl?

Four total, two left.

[Your New Gay Overlords]

Oh, gotcha. Well... here's the long and short of it:

If there are 3-4 left and the same person didn't bus twice, then that means ABOUT HALF of {Magua / Waffles / Jordan / Antihero / mollie / Pie} are mafia.

And it means that it's possible and likely that one of {me / you / Cheery Dog} is scum.

I, too, have trouble stomaching a back to back bus from any of UT/Ythan/Gamma, and Iece is basically a nonfactor.

[Your New Gay Overlords]

Fuck, there were no real counterwagons either D1 or D2. That means a bus is actually pretty likely.

[Sir Waffles Wafflington]

There was no real counterwagon day one.

There were several serious wagons day two that ended in eaglekit and was driven through after their claim that made no sense.

[Sir Waffles Wafflington]

Axxle - Why are you town reading us now?

[pirate mollie]

if I closed my eyes and ignored waffles these 3 players stand out:

gaiboiz
cheery
axxle

and I wanna throw gamma in there.

anti is town btw

[Untrod Tripod]

stand out as scum reads, I'm assuming?

[Axxle]

Your claim was ridiculously elaborate to be made up. You targeted a player that was very easy to mislynch and who has a better chance of being listened to (then me, cherry, mollie). I no longer think multiball is a possibility.

Pedit: at waffles

[pirate mollie]

stand out as scum reads, I'm assuming?

yes.

altho after saying I wanna put gamma in there I honestly don't. he HAS been trying to work things out. sort of.

VOTE: cheery

[Antihero]

i can't really follow much of mollie's thinking, either.

if I closed my eyes and ignored waffles these 3 players stand out:

gaiboiz
cheery
axxle

and I wanna throw gamma in there.

anti is town btw

first, elephant in the room, why am i a town read? admittedly, it's a refreshing change of pace from "OHLOLZEVERYBREATHYOUTAKEISSCUMZORZ", but i haven't really done anything besides obvious setup shit

cheery... maybe... i can't really think of any reasonable role that would actually have knowledge (amnesiac double "cop"...? this is just getting ridiculous). add it with the fact that no one reported a message day 2, and i think it's more likely it's scum misinformation shenanigans.
other slots of interest to me include inflatablepie and maybe jordan.

[Iecerint]

Hey, Iecerint, now can you explain what the fuck you were doing by saying publicly IN THE THREAD that you thought we were a weak cop lying about our role? You guessed right, but there was zero motivation to out that. We could have been fucked over if Eagle hadn't been lynched.

I thought you were town, but I also thought there was a legitimate reason to suspect a claimed modified hider who was worried about a vig during their hide. I thought that that legitimate suspicion might be enough to prevent you from being the target of a scum-kill on its own, but it might also put you at risk of having to claim all the way. I thought that clarifying this piece of the puzzle could potentially lessen suspicion on you enough to prevent you from having to claim any more unnecessary. Also, it would be less problematic coming from me than coming from you. Hence, you would maybe stop being suspected while simultaneously not dying at night.

The extra nuance that your hider claim was intended to dissuade roleblocks in particular did not occur to me. That might have changed what I would have done if it had occurred to me.

[Iecerint]

And yeah, eaglewagon was kind of out of nowhere. I think it went from non-existent to already-lynched during a period when I didn't post for a day or two.

[~Jordan`]

this is impossible

[Iecerint]

unnecessarily*

[Gammagooey]

yeah the message isn't mod-confirmed

i'm gonna sort of steal magua's thing for my reads

the two people who i think make the most sense as scum are axxle and pie mostly just based on having varying degrees of town reads on everyone else, The Gays are a bit behind those two, mollie I have a slight town read on but am really afraid of what the lack of comprehension from her means and also of her being one of the last 3-4 people in the game

so
Axxle+Pie-->The Gays--->kind of mollie--------->everyone else

[Untrod Tripod]

disagree about axxle for right now
pie I can kinda see

obviously I want to lynch the gays

[A Simple Math Problem]

I was going to wait around until I could get the top of the next page, but then I realised I hadn't even posted a votecount on this page yet! Haha!

Vote Count 3.05

Your New Gay Overlords

(0)

Iecerint

(0)

Cheery Dog

(1) pirate mollie

Untrod Tripod

(0)

Gammagooey

(0)

InflatablePie

(0)

Antihero

(3)

Untrod Tripod, Ythan, InflatablePie

Ythan

(0)

Axxle

(2) Gammagooey, Your New Gay Overlords

Sir Waffles Wafflington

(0)

pirate mollie

(1) Cheery Dog

Magua

(0)

~Jordan

(2) Magua, Axxle

Not Voting

(4) Iecerint, Antihero, Sir Waffles Wafflington, ~Jordan

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline: April 24th @ 1PM Commune Time

V/LA:

mollie on weekends

[Gammagooey]

dear reck

6 scum and a survivor in a 19 player setup is

real

dumb

like possibly nearly controlling the lynch on day 2 dumb

4 makes the most sense, 5 i think would only be possible if iec was scum and waffles and ythan are both town to have vig shots and a basically non-voting scum balance it out and even then still doesn't seem likely to me, just possible.

[Untrod Tripod]

gamma what do you make of mollie's play today?

mollie's a smart player, I really don't understand this unless it's intentional

[Gammagooey]

her posts and tone look town so i'm just ignoring her for today at least i think

like maybe mollie's just really bad at word problems? i feel like we should maybe lynch her before the end of the game just because it does seem not nearly as hard as she's making it out to be but she doesn't look scum to me aside from that

TL:DR;- fuck if i know son

[Untrod Tripod]

okay well here's my thing:

if we have utility lynches to burn they need to be on Iec (he CANNOT be alive late game and he's been really derpy) and/or maybe mollie because it seems like she has a genetic inability to read this game

can we just compromise on the gays and be done with it?

[xRECKONERx]

dear reck

6 scum and a survivor in a 19 player setup is

real

dumb

like possibly nearly controlling the lynch on day 2 dumb

4 makes the most sense, 5 i think would only be possible if iec was scum and waffles and ythan are both town to have vig shots and a basically non-voting scum balance it out and even then still doesn't seem likely to me, just possible.

6 scum would be 6:13 which is actually bad, yeah. I forgot there was a survivor. 5:13 seems fine though... basic balance says 1:3 ratio, so the issue is that 4:14:1 is really town sided. Scum would need FIVE mislynches at minimum without losing any of their own. I guess things like a BP and auto hammer and Miller could balance it out but...it still seems like a stretch. 5:13:1 actually works if there is a weak scum team.



Actually, has anyone else noticed the mafia are all drinking games so far? Circle of Death and Roxanne are flipped...what else could we possibly have? Fuck the Dealer, Bus Driver, Beer Pong? Did we play any other games? Using the Roxanne game as flavor seems like stretching it since we only played it once, which suggests a larger mafia team