Mini 425 Generic Western Mafia- Game over!

[Occult]

I re-looked over Ichigo's history and I'm getting nothing from him.

Only 10 posts
1 Confirming
2 about tigers
1 apology
2 commenting on the fact that there is not edit button
1 semi-random vote on john
1 basicly calling john stupid
--
His other two posts are...

His response to Avi's Accusation, he doesn't address the accusation but tries to go around it.

the other says he doesn't add much because he doesn't know our play styles. He also comments that he has addressed the accussations on him.

He hasn't addressed why he is lurking and I'd like to hear his reasons. Since the origanal accusations were brought up by Avi who was close to lynch I believe Ichigo thought he could sit back while Avi got lynched. On the other hand Avi could be attempting to distance himself from Ichigo.

8 meaningless posts with 2 that say basicly nothing. He's now been gone for another three days

Fos Ichigo

I'd like to hear his thoughts about the players and an explanation for his meaningless posts.

[mustafa15]

Goddamn, Guardian is on a roll.

Peter V has a fair point though.

more to chew on.

Nice lurker post

[gorckat]

I assume town players are smart enough to catch scum tells, therefor I try not to announce them when I spot them.

To me, that just reads like an out for scum. "Oh- I thought you'd pick up on that!"

If there were a hard and fast book of tells, then I'd agree. But you yourself said:

Also, the wikipedia entry should have some sort of "do not use this as the bible" caveat. If the wikipedia entry says "scum does x and doesn't do y" I assure you that scum will do y and not do x.

@Avi: Please explain why you now find John the most suspect.

@Guardian: Can you summarize all your possible scumpairs? Perhaps with a quick statment about why you think they are scum together?

[Peter Venkman]

Peter, your posts seem to be obsessed with reasoning that it is OK for a pro-town player to die...

You misread. The death of a scum player is significantly more important early game than the death of a town player. At this point town shouldn't be scared of death, whereas Scum are.

Peter, are you sure not to point out scum tells? I asked this as a question, and got two responses (posts 197 and 198) that I should point out any scum tells I see. I am just trying to play the game correctly and lynch people I see as potential scum...

Oh yeah? So you play at the whims of several posters in this game? I asked you why you were so certain in your convictions. I expected you to respond along the lines of "I'm not."

Notice how Occult has FOS'd Avinyl (post 186) - the one point of reasoning I agree with Peter on is that scum could now jump on Avinyl and lynch...

Wrong. Scum would be foolish to wait for a -3 to lynch and than quick bandwagon. I would expect scum to try be the 3rd or 4th vote on a player. Nice and unsuspicious.

Unvote: Avinyl Vote: Occult

Yep, just moving from player to player hoping for momentum to grow.

FomS: Peter for saying that we should not defend other players, and then defending (directly) Avinyl

My suspicion was due to the willingness of the players to put Avinyl at -3 to lynch. This is still early game and I'm sure we can all agree that quicklynches don't befefit the town. Don't mistake this for me defending him, he can do that himself.

I also think it is interesting that I went for your least suspicious to a FoS just because I voted on you.

Would you be more comfortable if I put my vote on Mustafa15?

-Peter

[Peter Venkman]

To me, that just reads like an out for scum. "Oh- I thought you'd pick up on that!"

If there were a hard and fast book of tells, then I'd agree. But you yourself said:

Also, the wikipedia entry should have some sort of "do not use this as the bible" caveat. If the wikipedia entry says "scum does x and doesn't do y" I assure you that scum will do y and not do x.

Do you see how you can extend my wikipedia analogy to my in game play? If I say "you are behaving like x and I think that is scummy" than I can no longer expect any remaining scum players to do x. If I stay quiet, I might be able to catch scum buddies doing that same behavior.

I assume the rest of the town is smart enough to pick up on these tells. If scum think they are getting away with them they will continue to do so. A good townie is a patient townie.

@Gorckat: Why do you turn to Guardian for scum pairs? We have confirmed nothing this game, and saying things like "If player X is scum, it follows that Y and Z are also scum" is pretty much meaningless until we determine if X is actually scum. Maybe keep your potential scum pairings in your MafiaScum notepad until we have more information to work with...

-Peter

[gorckat]

I assume the rest of the town is smart enough to pick up on these tells. If scum think they are getting away with them they will continue to do so. A good townie is a patient townie.

So what will you base an argument on when you decide who you want to vote for convinced they are scum? "Player X is scum and you should all be able to see why"?

I was in a similar debate in another game where a palyer refused to state who they thought the scum were while we were no-lynching ourselves into lylo. If we aren't voting the person you think is scum, then why sit on that info/analysis?

Perhaps we are talking about two different things...I'm thinking of an accumulation of info presented to make a case agaisnt a person. Are you referring to jumping on every little tick and tell and posting it right away?

@Gorckat: Why do you turn to Guardian for scum pairs? We have confirmed nothing this game, and saying things like "If player X is scum, it follows that Y and Z are also scum" is pretty much meaningless until we determine if X is actually scum. Maybe keep your potential scum pairings in your MafiaScum notepad until we have more information to work with...

I want a recap of all his pairs because he has issued several theories and I want to see him stack them up for review.

[Peter Venkman]

I was in a similar debate in another game where a palyer refused to state who they thought the scum were

I've quite clearly stated who I think is scum and why. However, you are correct in thinking that I don't want to post my thoughts on every little tick.

he (Guardian) has issued several theories and I want to see him stack them up for review.

I agree, he has accused and voted on a wide variety of people.

-Peter

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Peter, are you sure not to point out scum tells? I asked this as a question, and got two responses (posts 197 and 198) that I should point out any scum tells I see. I am just trying to play the game correctly and lynch people I see as potential scum...

Oh yeah? So you play at the whims of several posters in this game? I asked you why you were so certain in your convictions. I expected you to respond along the lines of "I'm not."

Why would you think that should've been his reaction? If you feel that someone is scum, you go after them. You pressure them, you make them slip up. On the flip side, if you feel someone is Town, you defend them. You're exactly right in that the Town doesn't need to lie, so it won't. The Scum have to lie, and they will get caught.

Notice how Occult has FOS'd Avinyl (post 186) - the one point of reasoning I agree with Peter on is that scum could now jump on Avinyl and lynch...

Wrong. Scum would be foolish to wait for a -3 to lynch and than quick bandwagon. I would expect scum to try be the 3rd or 4th vote on a player. Nice and unsuspicious.

Exactly. And if there are 3 more Townies that come in and lynch, then they're not helping the game out. There's only 2 ways to lynch Avinyl:

1) He gets 3 votes in rapid succession. Most likely, there's the majority of our scum. A Town would NOT quicklynch someone, because it's bad for the Town to do so.

2)The 3 votes get placed over time, and over pages of posts, due to the fact that Avinyl's answers to our queries are unsatisfactory.

The 2nd situation is the most likely, and no ones votes at that point would look scummy. But if a Town gets himself lynched like that, then I'm of the opinion that he wasn't helping the town out in the first place. Note: this discussion can apply to anyone, but Avinyl is on my radar for shaky explanations and lurking, so I'm using him as an example.

Unvote: Avinyl Vote: Occult

Yep, just moving from player to player hoping for momentum to grow.

I have to agree with Peter here Guardian. Why the vote switch?

@Peter: I understand from reading your posts that you like to take things slow and methodically, with which I agree, to an extent. But, what type of time table do you see for this game? 15 pages for day 1? 30? Just trying to get a feel for your playing style.

[Peter Venkman]

@ Vel> I hope you'll forgive me if I don't come up with an exact page number. I've never been comfortable doing that.

A better guage would be amount of posts from specefic players. I feel we have gotten a lot of good information on the majority of the players, and don't mind if things are moved up a gear. I'm not ready for a lynch, but I am ready to put pressure on people.

Why would you think that should've been his reaction? If you feel that someone is scum, you go after them.

I'm not sure I follow. I feel I put a lot of pressure on Guardian. Through my posts I made it clear that at this point no-one really can be secure in his convictions. If Guardian was thinking clearly I would expect him to have seen my logic and at least agree on that point. Instead he completely contraditcs my post.

You however, can read my post and pick out pieces you agree and disagree with. To me this demonstrates you are applying straightforward logic and a single motive.

-Peter

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

@ Vel> I hope you'll forgive me if I don't come up with an exact page number. I've never been comfortable doing that.

A better guage would be amount of posts from specefic players. I feel we have gotten a lot of good information on the majority of the players, and don't mind if things are moved up a gear. I'm not ready for a lynch, but I am ready to put pressure on people.

Your answer is fine. I wouldn't expect a single page number to be the answer, it's just the example with which I asked the question. I'm quite happy with your answer, and I agree with it.

Why would you think that should've been his reaction? If you feel that someone is scum, you go after them.

I'm not sure I follow. I feel I put a lot of pressure on Guardian. Through my posts I made it clear that at this point no-one really can be secure in his convictions. If Guardian was thinking clearly I would expect him to have seen my logic and at least agree on that point. Instead he completely contraditcs my post.

You however, can read my post and pick out pieces you agree and disagree with. To me this demonstrates you are applying straightforward logic and a single motive.

-Peter

My statement was going towards your comment (post 215) that Guardian shouldn't be so convinced that he's actually going after scum - "I'm skeptical of anyone who pretends to beleive in his convictions at this point. Guardian, you shouldn't know anything more than the rest of us do. What makes you so certain in your convictions? Why are you trying to steer the town?".

I was just commenting that if Guardian thinks he's onto a possible scum, shouldn't he be going after that person? You suggested that he should have answered that question with a "well, I'm not" answer (post 228), which suggests that he shouldn't really be going after someone at all. I would think that in order to hunt scum, any player (not just Guardian) would have to have

some

conviction that the person they're going after is acting scummy. We can't ever be 100% certain, until a player is killed, of whether they're scum or not. And one person is not going to be able to pressure another person by themselves in a game this size, so his "directing of the town" is, in a way, necessary to get the pressure on the person in question.

Another possibility here is that you were saying in post 215 that Guardian was acting

too convinced

, and that the only way he could be

that sure

is if he was actually a scum with extraneous knowledge.

I'm not trying to get into a disagreement with you, just looking for clarification. You've brought up some interesting points and I want to make sure I fully understand what it is you're trying to say.

[Raffles]

Few of my honest (I say honest because some are rather blunt) thoughts from reading since I left. I'm writing this as I read so I'm sorry if some points are repeated.

FoS on Raffles, for being overly aggressive in scum hunting.

Can I ask why that is such a bad thing?

If both are scum, they voted/fos each other early on as a distancing tactic.Now both are confident the other is town (raffles post 33 and vryklan post 9)

Isn't it more plausible that since we are best mates in real life, we were voting each other for kicks? Post 33 is still pretty much first page of the game. I find it amazing that you can deduce my current stance on Vryklan from that post.

I'm posting to show im not lurking, but have no information at this time to contribute. Everyone is bringing up logical points, and I am unable to tell who I should trust. I'll try to come up with something by tonite.

Translation:

I'm lurking, but I'm posting a filler to stay off the lurker-list. I'm lazy and can't be bothered to find anything to comment on, let alone make an analysis. I can't form my own opinions, I'd much rather go along with what others are saying. But as it stands, there's no general direction of flow, so I'm staying out of this.

For scum, this is the essence of the game. How do you appear town when you have opposite goals? You have to put on your "town" face, and this is harder than you might think.

Wrong

Good vanilla town players don't care if they get lynched. They speak the truth and do their best to logically out scum. This is the difference.

and wrong.

For the first one: Is it any concern of the scum what happens in the day? Some nice mafioso might look out for their fellow scums, but most just gets on with it. What has day got to do with their objectives? Just so long as they themselves don't get lynched, all is fine. Scums have night kills. They don't need lynching to kill. Then a good scums just forget that they are scums themselves and get on with scum-hunting as they would do normally.

For the second one: Townies

should

care about being mislynched. Assuming a game with no vig, if townies are only ones getting lynched then how the hell are you going to kill the mafias? It sounds obvious, but lots of people seem to miss this point.

hippocrit

Oh man am I the only one who is dirty-minded?

The death of a scum player is significantly more important early game than the death of a town player. At this point town shouldn't be scared of death, whereas Scum are.

Okay the first part I agree with, but the second? Wouldn't scums be scared of being lynched

all the time

? I don't know about anyone else but I have never seen a reckless scum.

I agreee with Peter's stance on regarding the revealing of information. However I think there's a balance you have to strike. You can't expect the town to pick up on

all

the scum tells. Also, a better skill is to develop a discussion and accuse inconsistencies.

[Peter Venkman]

Is it any concern of the scum what happens in the day? Some nice mafioso might look out for their fellow scums, but most just gets on with it. What has day got to do with their objectives? Just so long as they themselves don't get lynched, all is fine. Scums have night kills. They don't need lynching to kill. Then a good scums just forget that they are scums themselves and get on with scum-hunting as they would do normally.

Raffles it looks like we will have to agree to disagree. I see mafia players try to manipulate the day-lynch all the time.

Looking at raw odds, it is likely that a town player will be lynched day one. Knowing this, a good town player shouldn't freak out (like Guardian has) when facing a potential lynch: chances are good the town will just lynch another townie.

Sure, a good town player should defend himself, but clearly stating your game intention as staying alive appears scummy to me.

The town players can afford a day one loss, whereas a day one scum loss is twofold: they are statisticly closer to losing the game and they lose a voice of manipulation during the day.

-Peter

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

FoS on Raffles, for being overly aggressive in scum hunting.

Can I ask why that is such a bad thing?

I don't see it as a bad thing. This, to me, is a version of the "Too Townie" logical fallacy.

If both are scum, they voted/fos each other early on as a distancing tactic.Now both are confident the other is town (raffles post 33 and vryklan post 9)

Isn't it more plausible that since we are best mates in real life, we were voting each other for kicks? Post 33 is still pretty much first page of the game. I find it amazing that you can deduce my current stance on Vryklan from that post.

Hmmm, Post 33 is by Guardian. I don't see you defending vryk anywhere near post 33. DLMF, can you explain what you were going for here?

For scum, this is the essence of the game. How do you appear town when you have opposite goals? You have to put on your "town" face, and this is harder than you might think.

Wrong

Good vanilla town players don't care if they get lynched. They speak the truth and do their best to logically out scum. This is the difference.

and wrong.

For the first one: Is it any concern of the scum what happens in the day? Some nice mafioso might look out for their fellow scums, but most just gets on with it. What has day got to do with their objectives? Just so long as they themselves don't get lynched, all is fine. Scums have night kills. They don't need lynching to kill. Then a good scums just forget that they are scums themselves and get on with scum-hunting as they would do normally.

For the second one: Townies

should

care about being mislynched. Assuming a game with no vig, if townies are only ones getting lynched then how the hell are you going to kill the mafias? It sounds obvious, but lots of people seem to miss this point.

Of course the scum care about what happens in the day. It's in a scum's best interest to get a townie lynched during the day, and then get another kill at night. If the scum don't "put on their town face", then they can't hope to appear to be scum-hunting, and therefore kill their chances of getting a win.

And, I disagree that a good town player doesn't care if he gets lynched. A good town player will

not

get him/herself in a situation where he could be lynched. In that way the town player will not need to worry whether they're going to get lynched or not. A town lynch does nothing but help the scum out, so it is in every Townie's best interest to not screw up to the point where the rest of the town wastes a lynch on them.

I agreee with Peter's stance on regarding the revealing of information. However I think there's a balance you have to strike. You can't expect the town to pick up on

all

the scum tells. Also, a better skill is to develop a discussion and accuse inconsistencies.

I agree. If you see an inconsistency, you should bring it up. Not everyone is as good a player as the norm, and people miss things all the time. Keeping information to yourself can be detrimental. I'm not saying that you should spell things out. That just gives the scum a chance to get the "correct" answer. I'm saying that if you see something, you should question it in as simple a manner as possible, and let the potential scum formulate his own answer. That way you're not leading the horse to water, as it were, and you're more likely to catch another inconsistency.

[Peter Venkman]

To EVERYONE:

If you havn't noticed, the forums have undergone some severe problems, and several posts have been lost.

Even if you have no comments, POST IN THIS THREAD to let us know you are here. I will ask for Mod-Prods on anyone not responding within 24 hours. Lurking is a scummy (and annoying) way to play the game.

Also, it might be helpful to the mod if you restate who you are voting on. I can imagine how confusing this must be for them.

Vote: Guardian

-Peter

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Raffles it looks like we will have to agree to disagree. I see mafia players try to manipulate the day-lynch all the time.

Of course you do. That's how they win

Looking at raw odds, it is likely that a town player will be lynched day one. Knowing this, a good town player shouldn't freak out (like Guardian has) when facing a potential lynch: chances are good the town will just lynch another townie.

Sure, a good town player should defend himself, but clearly stating your game intention as staying alive appears scummy to me.

Guardian is acting like a noob to me, not scum. The problem is that a lot of noobs present scumtells because they don't know the proper way to react. Yes, Guardian has said that he's played before, but from looking at this one game it doesn't look like he's played a lot.

I agree with you that a good town player should not freak out, but a noob townie will, because they don't know any better.

The town players can afford a day one loss, whereas a day one scum loss is twofold: they are statisticly closer to losing the game and they lose a voice of manipulation during the day.

-Peter

Even though it's statistically likely that the townies can afford a Day 1 loss, and will undergo a Day 1 town lynch, those numbers don't take into account the fact that we can all think and question, and therefore shift the raw statistical odds in the town's favor by catching scum through good game play.

[Peter Venkman]

I disagree that a good town player doesn't care if he gets lynched. A good town player will not get him/herself in a situation where he could be lynched. In that way the town player will not need to worry whether they're going to get lynched or not. A town lynch does nothing but help the scum out, so it is in every Townie's best interest to not screw up to the point where the rest of the town wastes a lynch on them.

I agree with you somewhat. However, often times a lynch will occur simply because people have different playstyles or game philosophy.

What I don't like about Guardian is his admittance to his desire to stay alive, his constant vote switching, and lengthy poor-reasoned posts describing why.

He is at the top of my "who I think is scummy list." This isn't to say I'm certain, I just vote the top of my list.

-Peter

[gorckat]

I'm here. Looks like the short-lived drama around John's (I think) calling Guardian a townsperson is gone. I can't recall what else went down last weekend...

I know I made a post wanting more out of Avi. I'll reconstruct it later today.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

That was the hot topic IIRC, but I do believe that I was blowing it out of proportion. Most people decided it was just a misstatement, and I'm happy to go with that for now.

[Guardian]

can't post, but am here.

[Occult]

I'm here.

Guardian's desire to stay alive may come from him being a newbie, but he has switched between a newbieish persona and an agressive one, this brings up suspisions with me.

But, I believe that our main priority should be sorting out Avi, Ichigo and DLMF. It is likely that one of these three are scum.

[gorckat]

It looks like one of the posts that Avi made is gone- it was an updated suspicion list wth 3 or 4 names on it.

The big thing I was challenging him on was his vote of John after saying:

John: Many posts, but no post is longer than a few sentences. I don't know what to think about him.
Raffles: I can't make up my mind on him, either he's town or he is scum that seems protown.
Vryklan: I no longer know what to think.

If he doesn't know what to think of John, what makes John a better vote than Vryklan or Raffles, two other people about whom he doesn't know what to think?

[Sefer]

Fifth-and-a-half official vote count:

Guardian (3): Vryklan, Raffles, Peter Venkman
Avinyl (3): John, Vel-Rahn Koon, mustafa15
Occult (2): DLMF , Guardian,
John (2): Ichigo, Avinyl


Not voting: Occult, gorckat

12 alive, 7 to lynch.

Votes made in lost posts have been lost, so you'll need to re-vote if I don't currently have you where you want to be.
I will send out prompts tomorrow evening to anyone who hasn't made a post to check in. For my own reference, at this time those who have not checked in are: Ichigo, Avinyl, DLMF, mustafa15, Vrkylan, John.

Carry on, I continue to be impressed with the level of activity you guys have maintained. Don't let the downtime slow you down!

[John]

Its been a while since I posted. i swear i've posted earlyer, but apparently not. anywho,

I still want to know why AVI voted for me.

Guradian seems very town.

Peter seems like very good scum to me, he is appearing very pro town and asking just the right questions. he's almost being too perfect of a townie, and it rasies my suspicions, but its mostly a gut feeling.

Raffels, i know it seems im lurking. but there are so little scumtells to me, i can't comment with any kind of content. the downtime kicked the shit outta my attention span as well, if it wasn't bad enough.

gorkrat, thanks for defending me indirectly, i dont know what to make of it. you could have ment nothing by it, or you may be trying to gain me as an allie very subtly (<is that a word?). maybe im reading too much into it.

Thats all for now, i just got off work, and wrestling practice kicked my ass.

[Occult]

Peter seems like very good scum to me, he is appearing very pro town and asking just the right questions. he's almost being too perfect of a townie, and it rasies my suspicions, but its mostly

a gut feeling.

*cough*

DLMF, the gut vote thing doesn't cut it in my opinion. Not Page 5.

Vote: DLMF

Currently page 10, is a gut vote acceptable now? Also, we went through the "Too Townie" argument earlier, it isn't a good argument. You say he's asking the right questions and that also gives you suspisions, that's sort of a townie's job.

Your being hypocritical and using a BS reasoning.

[Raffles]

Peter seems like very good scum to me, he is appearing very pro town and asking just the right questions. he's almost being too perfect of a townie, and it rasies my suspicions, but its mostly a gut feeling.

Raffels, i know it seems im lurking. but there are so little scumtells to me, i can't comment with any kind of content. the downtime kicked the shit outta my attention span as well, if it wasn't bad enough.

Again, as soon as there is a spotlight on Peter, (i.e. some flow) you join in...