Micro 310: Shitty Joke Smalltown II (game over)

[Micc]

UNVOTE: Yiley
I want to hear what Yiley has to say when he gets back. I'll get to commenting on everything else as soon as I make some food.

[N]

Vote Count 1.08

Mitillos

(0)

Micc

(0)

absta101

(1) PrivateI

farside22

(0)

PrivateI

(0)

Brian Skies

(2) farside22

TierShift

(2) Yiley, absta101

Yiley

(3)

Mitillos, TierShift, jklash12

jklash12

(0)

Not Voting

(2) Brian Skies, Micc

With 10 votes in play, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-03-26 23:10:08)

V/LA:

farside22 on weekends (until Monday)

[Mitillos]

@Tier: It's actually pretty simple. absta's role basically means that he is on every wagon automatically, at the same time. If you look at it that way, the math is easier to work out. He can vote for someone specific and that makes his name appear on that specific wagon explicitly, or unvote and have his name disappear from the wagons in the vote counts, but he is still on all the wagons, all the time.

@Brian: Do you agree to use your power on N1, or do you believe that it would be best to use it later? Will your answer change depending on today's lynch?

[Micc]

One last attempt to break down the Mylo/Lylo situation that we have going on. The four possible outcomes of Day 1 are:
1. Lynch absta
2. Lynch a player who isn't absta or Farside
3. Lynch Farside
4. No Lynch
Since outcomes one and two don't seem to be receiving any consideration I am just going to break down outcomes three and four. I'm going to make the assumption that the global roleblock will be used N1. If it doesn't get used we policy lynch Brian on D2 no questions asked.

Outcome #1: We lynch absta D1

If we lynch absta and he flips town, there will be 9 votes in play on D2. The worst case scenario is that Farside is mafia, which would mean that mafia have control of three votes. If we mislynch D2 and there is a nightkill N2, then on D3 there are 7 votes in play with scum controlling three.

That means worst case scenario D3 is Lylo if we lynch absta and he flips town.

If we lynch absta and he flips mafia, there will be 9 votes in play on D2. The worst case scenario is that Farside is mafia, which would mean that mafia have control of two votes. If we mislynch D2 and there is a nightkill N2, then D3 there are 7 votes in play with scum controlling two. We could mislynch and get hit by another nightkill meaning D4 there are 5 votes in play with scum controling two.

That means worst case senario D4 is Lylo if we lynch absta and he flips mafia.

Outcome #2: We lynch someone who isn't absta or farside

If we lynch a PlayerX (anyone but absta and Farside) and PlayerX flips town, there will be 9 votes in play on D2. The worst case scenario is that Farside is mafia, which means that mafia have the hammering power of four votes. If we mislynch PlayerY (who is not absta or Farside) on D2 and there is a nightkill N2, then D3 there are 7 votes in play with scum having the hammering power of four votes. Thus the game is over unless town gets enough votes on mafia to force a hammer before scum coordinates a hammer on town.

That means that worst case scenario D2 is Lylo if PlayerX flips town and absta isn't the D2 lynch.

~If we go back and lynch absta D2 and he flips town, the nightkill makes D3 have 7 votes in play with mafia in control of three.

That means worst case scenario D3 is Lylo if PlayerX flips town and we then lynch town-absta D2.

~If we go back and lynch absta D2 and he flips mafia, the nightkill makes D3 have 7 votes in play with mafia in control of two. We could mislynch and get hit by another nightkill meaning D4 there are 5 votes in play with scum controlling two.

That means worst case scenario D4 is Lylo if PlayerX flips town and we then lynch scum-absta D2.

If we lynch a PlayerX (anyone but absta and Farside) and PlayerX flips mafia, there will be 9 votes in play on D2. The worst case scenario is that Farside is mafia, which means that mafia have the hammering power of three votes. If we mislynch PlayerY (who is not absta or Farside) on D2 and there is a nightkill N2, then D3 there are 7 votes in play with scum having the hammering power of three votes.

That means that worst case scenario D3 is Lylo if PlayerX flips mafia and absta isn't the D2 lynch

~If we go back and lynch absta D2 and he flips mafia, the game is over and we win.
~If we go back and lynch absta D2 and he flips town, the nightkill makes D3 have 7 votes in play with mafia controlling two. We could mislynch and get hit by another nightkill meaning D4 there are 5 votes in play with scum controling two.

That means that worst case scenario D4 is Lylo if PlayerX flips mafia and we then lynch town-absta.

Conclusion

We don't loose a day if we policy lynch absta D1 or D2. Anytime after that could potentially be too late. There isn't a difference policy between lynching absta D1 compared to D2 as far as I can tell. The results come out the same no matter what alignment he is.

Unless I screwed something up somewhere this should prove that there is no reason not to policy lynch absta. We don't loose anything by doing it, and we win on the 25% chance that he is scum. That being said I really don't see any reason not to make the policy lynch happen D1 because the extra time to decide on the other lynch could prove extremely beneficial.

[Micc]

Vote and unvote tags seem to be broken. Looks like N counted my unvote in 275, but...

Unvote: Yiley

Just to be sure.

[Mitillos]

Unvote

This looks good. It's not a policy lynch, it's a strategic lynch. I'll read it thoroughly to see if I can find any errors.

@absta: Any thoughts on post 278?

[Micc]

Your reads look fake because they change despite the person hardly posting in between.

Or he accused me of being scum for something, I disproved his statement with meta, and his read changed based on said meta. As well as the other things Absta has already mentioned. But the first part could have been implied in thread and you completely ignored it. Why?

As far as I can tell absta's only response to your defense was in post 198. He ignored all the meta and said what you did was still bad town play. I don't know what other things absta has mentioned that you are referring to.

You are an automatic vote for scum in MyLo.

What do you mean by this statement (because I'm reading it two different ways)?

And you shouldn't be automatically voting for people in Mylo. It's called Mylo for a reason.

In that statement I was referring to the fact that absta being alive gives the mafia an increased hammering power of one vote. I can see how that may have been confusing. And yes, I understand that automatically voting in a Mylo situation is bad.

All I see is a lot of effort to keep the lynch off Yiley, who he doesn't seem to want to go anywhere near.

Do you think town would be more nervous about potentially mislynching a known investigative role?

I'm not quite sure how this question relates, but yes I could understand why town would be nervous about potentially mislynching a known investigative role. No, I don't think that's why absta was shying away from considering Yiley as possible scum. I was linking them together as a possible scumteam in my head. Either way it is pretty clear that absta wasn't simply shying away from considering Yiley for scum because of his role as a cop. If that was the case absta would not have four other players as higher scum reads.

---

There still seems to be some indecision about whether to use the roleblock N1 or not. Hopefully I can put some of that to rest. There is no reason not to use it. It stops a nightkill N1 just the same as it will stop a nightkill N2 or N3 or N4. There are no information gathering power roles that are usable N1.

I just typed up a bunch more scenarios and deleted them all because I think I screwed up. The difference between blocking the nightkill N1 and not blocking it is the difference between 8 or 9 votes in play D2. Since either situation means it takes 5 votes to lynch the difference really becomes whether we can afford to no lynch D2 if we so choose. With the N1 roleblock we have the option, and without the roleblock we don't have that option.

If that's wrong it's because I'm tired and need a break. Everybody should take the time to read through post 278 and make sure they agree because I'm not ruling out the possibility that I overlooked something.

[TierShift]

I think your scenarios are correct, micc. An easier way to observe it:
In regular LyLo/MyLo, if absta is town, we lose, because absta's vote can be used by scum. Thus, absta's vote is a scum vote. If we eliminate a scum vote during the day by lynching him, then lose a town vote during the night, we lost a town and a scum vote. Hence, not closer to lylo so a free lynch.

I'm all for lynching yiley still and then PL absta day 2.

[farside22]

When did mafia become lets lynch based on role instead of who is scum?

When did PL become better then scum hunting?

If we lynch someone because of WIFOM then how do we know who on the wagon is scum with that basis? No offense but I look at those who are on the wagon and why.
Plus we are talking about trusting a cop now that some are suspicious of.
What stops the cop if he is scum from lying?

Micc: What do you learn with a PL?

[Micc]

When did mafia become lets lynch based on role instead of who is scum?

Right about the time you signed up for a smalltown formatted game.

When did PL become better then scum hunting?

When negative utility roles became a thing.

If we lynch someone because of WIFOM then how do we know who on the wagon is scum with that basis? No offense but I look at those who are on the wagon and why.

We wouldn't be lynching absta because of WIFOM, we would be lynching him because he is a mod confirmed negative utility role. We don't lose any mislynches by getting rid of absta, so I don't see how your wagon analysis is interrupted. Feel free ignoring the absta wagon if you would like, but every other wagon can still be analyzed.

Plus we are talking about trusting a cop now that some are suspicious of.
What stops the cop if he is scum from lying?

I don't trust Yiley one bit. I would like to see him gone by day two unless things seriously change. Even then I would be suspicious. Nothing stops him from lying as scum.

Micc: What do you learn with a PL?

I learn absta's alignment. Since I am town, absta has a 25% chance of flipping scum in which case we would be in really good shape going forward. In the 75% chance that he is town we don't lose anything. I don't see why we wouldn't flip absta to see what his alignment is.

[farside22]

When did mafia become lets lynch based on role instead of who is scum?

Right about the time you signed up for a smalltown formatted game.

I've played smalltown games, mini but small town and PL wasn't discussed.

When did PL become better then scum hunting?

When negative utility roles became a thing. [/quote]

At the end I see your point. However.....god I hate math...

9 players
2 mafia
7 town
mislynch day 1 into night 1
6/2
mafia lynch
7/1
N1 (RB uses ability)
6/2 or 7/1
Now what?

If we lynch someone because of WIFOM then how do we know who on the wagon is scum with that basis? No offense but I look at those who are on the wagon and why.

We wouldn't be lynching absta because of WIFOM, we would be lynching him because he is a mod confirmed negative utility role. We don't lose any mislynches by getting rid of absta, so I don't see how your wagon analysis is interrupted. Feel free ignoring the absta wagon if you would like, but every other wagon can still be analyzed. [/quote]

Do you know how to analysis a wagon with no flip of said player?

Plus we are talking about trusting a cop now that some are suspicious of.
What stops the cop if he is scum from lying?

I don't trust Yiley one bit. I would like to see him gone by day two unless things seriously change. Even then I would be suspicious. Nothing stops him from lying as scum.[/quote]

So your pushing a policy lynch over a scum lynch because?????

Micc: What do you learn with a PL?

I learn absta's alignment. Since I am town, absta has a 25% chance of flipping scum in which case we would be in really good shape going forward. In the 75% chance that he is town we don't lose anything. I don't see why we wouldn't flip absta to see what his alignment is.[/quote]

Dude that logic true of any lynch. Your using a role and not scum hunting. That is not going to fly in my world. You want to lynch absta off of PL don't ask me to be onboard. I would rather lynch scum.

Still waiting on Yiley and absta for answers.

[farside22]

Sorry for the bad quote job. I will never learn to preview.

[TierShift]

6/2 or 7/1
Now what?

If 6/2 and you are scum you can quickhammer with only one townvote somewhere

Then 4/2 and you control 4 votes (since absta is 1) thus win

If at 6/2 we lynch absta scum have max 3 votes day 3 and thus can't quickhammer.

In the worst case scenario it's a free lynch.

With you town and him town it isn't I think but I'm not sure.

Anyway I'm pretty sure brian needs to use his shot tonight since tomorrow may be MyLo.

We're pushing the PL because it's a free lynch, it wins us a day.

[farside22]

6/2 or 7/1
Now what?

If 6/2 and you are scum you can quickhammer with only one townvote somewhere

Then 4/2 and you control 4 votes (since absta is 1) thus win

If at 6/2 we lynch absta scum have max 3 votes day 3 and thus can't quickhammer.

In the worst case scenario it's a free lynch.

With you town and him town it isn't I think but I'm not sure.

Anyway I'm pretty sure brian needs to use his shot tonight since tomorrow may be MyLo.

We're pushing the PL because it's a free lynch, it wins us a day.

This is on the belief that both absta and I are scum together. Do you believe we both are? If so why?
Second how is this a free lynch? I'm thinking it's the hammer thing???

[TierShift]

No it's on the belief that absta is town. If he's scum, even more reason to lynch him.

[farside22]

No it's on the belief that absta is town. If he's scum, even more reason to lynch him.

I don't know why you think this is the best course of action.
Absta maybe scum. I'm questioning him currently. Yiley maybe scum. (still waiting for him to post and I will vote tomorrow if he does not show up with something today and feel nothing for it). But this, this is like hey lets lynch player X based on there role and cross our fingers and hope for the best.

[absta101]

@Farside

Why do you have a scum read on Micc?

I've explained this too many times. I put a link in post #248.

The post about Tier calling out Yiley for posting elsewhere and mostly in mishmash is hypocritical of you to call scummy or questionable. I recall not too long ago you called me scum lurking and not active and voted for those reasons.

1. I didn't say he was scummy or questionable for it. I simply stated that I had already pointed that (what he said) out.
2. My reason for voting you was made near the beginning of the game.

What was wrong with post 189?

I stated in my 'case' on Tier. Here is a quote:

Tier is just terribly scummy at this point as well because he's only seemed to find one person scummy (private) who hasn't even been posting anything.

It seems to me that he's scared of calling people scummy so he doesn't have to commit. That explains his vote on private and why he uses terms like "so that sucks" to describe scummy play.

I was referring to post #189 when talking about his choice of words. This is another example from the same post (that I used in post 193):

So far, micc and brian don't really

appease me

, private is conpletely gone and yiley refuses to cooperate.

He says here that his scumspects are Micc and Brian.
---

@Mit

@absta: Any thoughts on post 278?

I'm okay with being PL'd on the second day if it helps. I'd rather we lynch Tier or Yiley today though.
Micc actually looks slightly better now.

[farside22]

Absta: I think you are quibbling about Tier's lanauge instead of using scummy is a bit minor point.
If Tier didn't have a clear read I would agree with your thought process there.

Speaking of who thinks whom is scum. Where is Brain and what is his scum reads?

[farside22]

Add Private to people that have not given scum reads either.

[jklash12]

That was a good post, Micc, about the outcomes. So it looks like it could be beneficial to town by PL absta D1 or D2 because his vote basically just is help for the scum team. I think I would be down for a PL on Absta more on D2 because I still like my Yiley vote.

[Micc]

Do you know how to analysis a wagon with no flip of said player?

I don't even know what you are trying to say. We get flips when people get lynched. There is no reason we wouldn't get a flip on the player we lynched. I'm pretty sure that's not what you are trying to say, but that's what I am reading no matter how I look at it.

So your pushing a policy lynch over a scum lynch because?????

Because policy lynching absta is essentially lynching scum no matter what alignment he is. When he is dead, scum have one less vote that they can use to endgame the town. If by chance he flips scum then its a bonus - we essentially removed two votes that scum could have used to endgame the town.

I'm not sure how many more different ways I can try to explain that we don't lose anything by lynching absta. The amount of mislynches that we get this game depends on whether you are town, and whether you get nightkilled at some point. I cant really say what that number is, but I can say that lynching absta will not lower the number no matter what he flips.

Dude that logic true of any lynch. Your using a role and not scum hunting. That is not going to fly in my world. You want to lynch absta off of PL don't ask me to be onboard. I would rather lynch scum.

Hopefully I have explained it to the point that it makes sense by now. Lynching absta is as good as guaranteed scum lynch even if he flips town. I'm not saying that we are going to win this game by looking at the role PM's and breaking the game. Yes, we will need to scum hunt and lynch scum once absta is gone. But for now the best course of action is to lynch the negative utility role before it can hurt us in the end game.

Absta needs to be lynched Day2 at the very latest, otherwise it might be too late. Since Yiley is a stronger scum read than absta or anyone else I think he should be lynched today. This way Absta gets to live longer and have more of an impact than Yiley. That means we lynch absta Day 2. The only way we don't is if Brian agrees to use the roleblock but doesn't use it. In that case he is confirmed scum and we lynch him.

[Mitillos]

To be completely honest, I'd rather lynch PrivateI or Yiley, at this point. Both have lurked the game away and I'm not seeing much in the way of scumminess from the other players, yet.

In fact, PrivateI has basically only really talked about Yiley. As farside pointed out, he hasn't given any scumreads. He's been sitting on his RV and his biggest contributions were to 1) sort of suggest a no-lynch and 2) defend Yiley, without even giving a read on him, until much later (111 posts and 5 days later, to be precise).

So, my preferential lynch order is PrivateI > Yiley > absta (only for strategic purposes) > anyone else.

Vote: PrivateI

In the worst case, where he flips town, we can still decide on whether we want to lynch absta tomorrow.

Incidentally, anyone who believes that absta is town should want to keep absta alive for now and try to find his partner, instead. The reason is that, just as a town hammerer can be manipulated by scum, a scum hammerer can be manipulated by the town. His vote is not his own. As counter-intuitive as this sounds, if you think absta is scum, you should look for his partner first, at least for D1.

[N]

Prodding PrivateI

[Brian Skies]

Prod dodge.

Will post in a bit.

[TierShift]

The reason is that, just as a town hammerer can be manipulated by scum, a scum hammerer can be manipulated by the town.

Are you suggesting that in the situation day 3 with 0 scum lynched with absta alive, town should quicklynch before scum get the opportunity to? Doesn't seem like a good strategy.

Ayway, I'm not getting on board with a PrivateI lynch, since that would really be only because he's lurking (which is not alignment indicative). In yiley's case, the lurking and refusing to get involved ís alignment indicative.
Pri=lurker yiley=scum.


Can you please vote yiley, we're getting dangerously close to deadline.