Mini 417: Dueling Gods Mafia Over

[Elias_the_thief]

whoa, days up. and we lost another power role. but only one kill, so i guess clubs doctor is doing his job.
I dont know about you guys, but I've been really thrown off by the OMG and cokebottle thing. I think i need some time to reread. Ill get back to you on that.

Vote Count

As of post 233

Nocmen (2) - Sage, Kison
Kison (1) - Nocmen
Not voting (5) - The rest of you

[Sage]

At this point, it'd be extremely honorable for one or two mafia members to give themselves up. You know, to give us a sporting chance. :-/

I'm gonna have to do a re-read, too. My semester ends tomorrow, so I'll try to get around to it on Tuesday or Wednesday. Hopefully I'll find something useful.

[Nocmen]

Elias: Im pretty sure from the death scenes that the clubs killed CES Night 1, and the spades took out Nyktorion last night, so the guess is that both doctors each got one lucky shot?

[Kison]

Code: Select all

Alive:
1. Great Sir Utnut
2. Elias_the_thief
3. Kison
4. PlaysWithSquirrels
5. Nocmen
6. Sage
7. videoguy
8. Spag


Dead:
Day 1   - Cokebottle,           Spades Roleblocker
Night 1 - CES,                  Spades Doctor
Day 2   - omg_im_innocent_wtf,  Clubs Roleblocker
Night 2 - Nyktorion,            Spades Cop

So when it comes down to Town VS Spades, we're pretty much screwed. There's no-one left to investigate them or to block them from making kills. The thing I am interested to know is how many scum are possibly in each group. So far, not a single scum player has managed to die. And I find that to be extremely unlikely with two scum groups sending out kills in addition to our daily lynches. However, last night was exceptional with the fact that Nyktorion had broadcasted his role. So obviously the Spades group would go after him to prevent any further investigations against them. However, what interests me is that there was no second kill during the night. Either the Clubs mafia was stupid and went for the same kill when it would have been no benefit to themselves, or the doc did us some good.

The unfortunate loss to us in this game comes from the fact that both Cokebottle and OMG were complete morons and falsely claimed. Therefore, one can't really draw up statistical approximations to attempt to figure out how many scum there are in the game based on the fact that not a single scum player has managed to die. Were all kills to have been legit, I'd have to approximate 4 scum in the game with 2 in each group. However, we can't draw that conclusion because only one kill has been without a claim, and that was CES.

So for the time, we should assume the worst and that there are

6

scum in the game,

3

per group. In this case,

no-one should claim

, in hopes that scum kill scum during the night. Assuming 4 VS 4, we have a 50% chance of hitting scum. Assuming 6 VS 2, we have a 75% chance of hitting sum. Either way, I like the odds.

One thing to note: What do we do about our Clubs cop? I'm very hesitant to ask him to claim. In the 6 VS 2 scenerio, that'd be a loss of ONE OF TWO townies. That's huge. My advice is to hold off on your claim until tomorrow.

Assuming the 6 VS 2 scenerio...

A lynch would have a 1/8 chance of hitting the clubs cop. Obviously, at that point, you'd need to claim and give up your information. So this can be disregarded for the time being.

Two scum groups, each with 3 scum. That means each group has a 1/(7 - 3) chance of hitting our cop. So we take 2 * (1/4). That's a 50% chance that we lose our cop during the night. However, this doesn't factor in the fact that one scum group is very likely going to lose one of their members to a lynch, nor does it factor in the possibility of the doctor protecting the cop. So the odds are a bit in our favor. At this point, I'd say this is our best method of potentially knocking one of the scum groups out.

For now:

Vote : Sage

I did not like how he jumped on the Squirrels wagon. He was far too defensive for that opportunistic of a vote.

[Nocmen]

Hmm....so you think there are 6 scum total in this game? Kison, the way you flaunt those numbers around seem as if you are a part of the spades that are trying to take out the clubs so you will have the number game agaisnt the town.

Vote:Kison

[Sage]

Vote: Nocmen

Kison was just theorizing...it's possible we have 6 scum here (although I certainly hope not!). Planning for the worst isn't suspicious in and of itself. Your accusation against him, though, is suspicious...in that it doesn't seem very well thought out at all.

Why do you assume Kison is part of the Spades? I don't see any portion of his post where he leans toward favoring one mafia over the other. The only reason you would "know" which mafia Kison was in is if you were in one yourself and knew he wasn't a buddy.

Still have to reread, but for now I'm comfortable with pushing Nocmen.

[Kison]

Yup, that is definitely more suspicious than Sage's opportunistic voting.

Unvote

Vote : Nocmen

I find it hard to believe you didn't pay attention to the fact that everything I suggested is approximated.

[Nocmen]

As far as I know, the number of each scum is still unknown (most likely 2, but could be 3 if the mod wanted to screw us over), and Kison is constantly basing his accusations on the pair of 3 scum. His arguments first refer to how it will be spades v town, which would mean that he is not a part of the clubs, and then wants to keep the clubs cop a secret, which most likely means that he is preparing for what looks as the inevitable spades v. clubs mafia fight for the end, proving that he wants the clubs to worry about hitting the clubs doc over the spades mafia.

[Kison]

As far as I know, the number of each scum is still unknown (most likely 2, but could be 3 if the mod wanted to screw us over), and Kison is constantly basing his accusations on the pair of 3 scum.

Did you not bother reading my post? I said that

we cannot determine how many scum there are based on the actions of the past few days

. I said that

two

or

three

scum per GROUP is a reasonable number. Why? Because if it were any MORE, then there would be no town left. Any FEWER and they would no longer be "groups" and unfairly having 2 scum VS 10 townies, which is an absurd setup.

Now, why did I choose to base my estimations with the number three instead of two? Because it is better to go with the worst case scenario. That is WITHOUT any certainty that I am correct, however I would wager that one of the two is correct.

His arguments first refer to how it will be spades v town, which would mean that he is not a part of the clubs,

WRONG. My wording indicates that the town is fighting two separate battles. One with Spades scum, and one with Clubs scum. I said that the fight with Spades is looking grim, while there is better hope for the fight against the Clubs.

and then wants to keep the clubs cop a secret, which most likely means that he is preparing for what looks as the inevitable spades v. clubs mafia fight for the end, proving that he wants the clubs to worry about hitting the clubs doc over the spades mafia.

This is such a stupid argument that it amazes me that you even suggested it. If I was a Spades mafia and wanted the Clubs to worry about hitting the doc over my own scum group, then why the hell did I tell no-one to claim? Bingo! Better chance of hitting SCUM with their night kills as long as no-one knows who is who. That is without a doubt in the town's benefit.

I am much happier with my vote, now.

[Elias_the_thief]

its five to lynch i believe. i guess im comfortable with a

vote: nocmen

. it seems like a decent case kison has against you. but im more upset that you havent responded to it. it was posted a while ago.

[Great Sir Utnut]

By the way, you messed up your math. It is actually a 7/16 chance that the clubs cop is hit. Each group has a 3/4 chance of a hit. Therefore it is a 9/16 chance that neither of them hit.
Back on topic: Why would Kison put that much effort to help the town unless he was actually part of the town. Nocmen's accusations are suspicious to me, too.

vote: nocmen

[Nocmen]

Ok, so maybe I missed that you were assuming numbers, but worst case isnt always going to happen. Yet you then say that the spades have a better chance of hitting scum with their night kills. If you kept going with your 3 people per scum, that means there would only be 2 town left, so the spades would know who to take out in order to have the highest advantage once the town are dead.

[Nocmen]

And Great Sir Utnut...may I ask why the hell you decide that you can prove a point when all the hell you have done is lurk this game? If you want to prove a point, learn to contribute.

Spades mafia is Kison, Great Sir Utnut, and Sage. Clubs is Elias, SPAG, and VideoGuy.

Im the clubs cop. You didnt want me to claim, but guess what, I did.

[Elias_the_thief]

i love how you bash kison for assuming there are 3 scum in each group, but then go on to describe scum groups of 3. and then you make an anti town move to claim when its obv towns advantage not to. but im going to

unvote

since im not comfotable with the lynch, except in the case of a counterclaim or more evidence against you.

[Kison]

Each group has a 3/4 chance of a hit.

Not that I'm saying it's wrong, but how do you figure this?

Yet you then say that the spades have a better chance of hitting scum with their night kills.

What are you going on about? I never said this. I said Spades have the advantage now because all anti-Spades town members are dead.

Spades mafia is Kison, Great Sir Utnut, and Sage. Clubs is Elias, SPAG, and VideoGuy.

Im the clubs cop. You didnt want me to claim, but guess what, I did.

Hahah. He's scum.

Just think about it for a moment. If you're the Clubs cop, then you would be unable to decipher who the Spades mafia members are. Secondly, there have only been

two

nights and yet you claim to have figured out

six

mafia members. Third of all, the fact that you are claiming there are six mafia members means that your whole argument against me using the 3 VS 3 scenario was BS to begin with. Now we know there are two groups of three scum because scum just told us . Thanks.

Daykill : Nocmen

[Nocmen]

No I was using your own numbers and taking a last guess that would help the town in the long run. Lets just say im still happy to be alive right now.

[Kison]

No I was using your own numbers and taking a last guess that would help the town in the long run. Lets just say im still happy to be alive right now.

What's with the claim? Who'd you really investigate? What were your results?

[Nocmen]

Night 1 I investigated Omg, got an innocent.
Night 2 I investigated you, Kison, and got an innocent. However, your acting scumish is why I have been pushing you off as a Spades.

Happy?

[Kison]

My accusations against you are what you likely consider scummy. Honestly, if you're the Clubs cop, you just screwed us completely. But I really find it hard to believe that you're the cop. Anyone, even an innocent townie, could false claim and make those up.

My question is, why do you consider those people who you listed to be affiliated with those scum groups? You didn't even get a guilty result, indicating you have no more clue than I do.

[videoguy]

Nocmen:

You got an innocent on OMG N1 yet voted for him anyway on Day 2, before his false claiming and he went haywire (#177)?

[videoguy]

Also, why would you put SPAG in your guess since neither he nor Sandy has even posted yet? There's no way that's at all helpful to town.

[Elias_the_thief]

yeah, those groups you listed seem complete BS to me. i definately dont know if im willing to lynch you now, your claim seems believable to me. theres gotta be a clubs cop, and theres been no counterclaim. even with the decreased importance of cops due to split mafia groups. since theres no counterclaim, we're going to have to accept you as clubs cop. though videoguy raises a good point about your voting patterns. its unfortunate that youve got no guilties.

the real question is "where is plays with squirrels?" and furthermore, what makes you believe that i am more likely scum than he? since you have such an in depth idea of who the scum are, id like to hear your reasons for believing those to be the scum groups.

Kison: i dont like that youre so intent to kill him. if he was lying about his role there would probably have been a counterclaim by now.

[Kison]

yeah, those groups you listed seem complete BS to me. i definately dont know if im willing to lynch you now, your claim seems believable to me. theres gotta be a clubs cop, and theres been no counterclaim.

No counterclaim, maybe because they realize that doing so would be suicide? Nocmen is very likely a Clubs mafia member baiting a counter claim. That's what he

wants

, and that's why he didn't like my proposals.

i dont like that youre so intent to kill him. if he was lying about his role there would probably have been a counterclaim by now.

I'm intent to get rid of him because he is obviously scum. I can't believe that you don't see it. videoguy hit the nail on the head with the voting patterns. The guy is also reprimanding me for going with a worst case scenario over a best case scenario. Not to mention making things up(see my last response answering quotes of his).

The cop claim is bogus. Not only does his voting not match up in the least bit with his OMG investigation, but the fact that he failed to speak up when OMG was about to get lynched is further evidence that he is lying.

The logical response that I expect out of him is, "if I claimed yesterday then I would have been killed." That is clearly wrong. Either the town would have believed your claim and not killed OMG, in which case the Clubs doc would have protected you, or they would have not believed your claim and lynched him anyways. What would have happened? OMG would come up innocent. Doc protects you.

[Sage]

Yeah, there's not going to be a counterclaim. That would be suicide. We all saw what happened to spades cop.

I'm keeping my vote on Nocmen. His story makes zero sense.

What makes me sad is that now we know there's two groups of three mafia. That means there's only two town left.

[Elias_the_thief]

um, how do we know there are 3 for certain?