Micro 310: Shitty Joke Smalltown II (game over)

[Mitillos]

Unless Dritan doesn't get here before it's your turn.

I'll take Doctor.

[Mitillos]

Incidentally,

@Mod: Are scum players prohibited from using both a kill and their night action (if any), or can they do both?

[Mitillos]

Vote: absta

Hammer bad!

[Mitillos]

It's like N's Narcissistic all over again...

See, there was a double-voter there and people got paranoid about him. Although in that one, the doublevoter claimed hated, as well (he was) and people worried that he might be lying about that.

Anyway, the MyLo problem will arise on D2 if 1) farside is scum, 2) absta is town, 3) both are still alive by then, we mislynched on D1. I'm assuming there will be no N1 kill, because of the RB. Anyway, at that point, there will be 8 players alive, i.e. 9 votes and mafia will control 4 of the votes. If one townperson votes another, mafia can both quickvote that person. That puts them at L-1 and absta hammers. Kill one person on N2, 7 players left, mafia controls 4 votes, votes together for a quick-lynch, kills one more person and wins.

Incidentally, if farside is mafia and absta is town, it takes two townies to give scum a mislynch today. Out of a total of 7. So... you know... be careful what you do.

As for the night action plan in post 37, naturally I'm in favour of it, because we may as well do it. Note that the plan won't work if any of the three night actions involved are by scum.
If Brian Skies is scum, he can simply kill me tonight, and then kill Yiley on N2.
If I am scum, I can kill Yiley on N2.
If Yiley is scum, it's all an exercise in futility anyway. Worse, he will know I'll be protecting him on N2, so he can kill whomever he likes.
If both scum are in the above set, things can only get worse.
To a townie outside this group, there is an 18 in 28 chance of at least one of us being scum. To any townies in {Brian Skies, me, Yiley}, there is a 13 in 28 chance.

[Mitillos]

Eh, the problem is that we lose our only investigative and protective roles, in those situations. Sure, we get one of the two scum, but still.

[Mitillos]

I was responding to TierShift, not you.

[Mitillos]

@Tier: It's certainly better than not having info, of course. I just don't like losing useful PRs. And yeah, I know that's inescapable, but still... Anyway, my point was that we should keep in mind that things might not simply work out like we expect them. Which I'm pretty sure everyone knows already, so, whatever. I intended to protect Yiley on N2 anyway, so it doesn't really matter.

@absta: If the RB happens, there's no NK, either. We'll be where we are now, except the RB will have turned vanilla and the cop will be able to use his power. Not sure if I agree with the no-lynch, though. Reducing the number of potential investigation targets will help the cop make a better choice of that.

[Mitillos]

@Tier: I'm paranoid. Always.

@absta: Yeah, that too.

[Mitillos]

@absta: And then his partner would kill Yiley on N2. There are two scum. As for lynching one of the important PRs, if they turn out to be scum, of course we'll lynch them. As important as they might be, scum cops/docs/roleblockers are not good for town. So, not really sure what your point is. Why would we be more lenient on them? Alignment trumps role, except in extremely rare circumstances.

[Mitillos]

Yeah, I wasn't being very clear. Sorry about that.

And your leniency point is irrelevant, because we are talking about specific actions, not tells. If I die tonight, Brian won't have used his power. The same is true if the mail gets through. If he agrees to the plan and doesn't go through with it, that's very scummy.

Similarly, if Yiley dies on N2, clearly I didn't protect him. A doc not protecting a cop is undeniably scummy, if we don't know the cop's alignment, yet. So, I'd expect town to insta-lynch me if that happens, even if I had been ultra-towny before.

[Mitillos]

@jklash: How exactly would he get an easy town day 1 lynch, with a no-lynch?

[Mitillos]

I still don't see how he could get an easy mislynch on D1 with a no-lynch, but whatever.

[Mitillos]

@absta: I assumed it was something inconsequential, like misunderstanding role mechanics. Didn't care enough for a push, at the time.

[Mitillos]

What the hell?

@jklash You're being too evasive. Answer clearly. What, exactly, did you think he would have done?

[Mitillos]

@jklash: You were evading explaining precisely how he'd get a mislynch, by advocating a no-lynch. And your explanation still makes no sense. Even if he were a dayvig, how would his request for a no-lynch have anything to do with getting a mislynch? If anything, the only way to absolutely avoid a mislynch is with a no-lynch.

tl;dr: How could a no-lynch possibly lead to a mislynch?

@absta: My vote was RV, but I do think a hammerer is a liability for the town, especially given the doublevoter. The two of you are the first ones who need to be sorted out. And saying that scum-you wouldn't be scared in your situation just looks a little like bluster. And how can you possibly accuse farside of avoiding the thread? Her longest absence was 21 hours, part of which included the time when the site was down, if I'm not mistaken. Why aren't you accusing Micc and Brian Skies of the same behaviour?

[Mitillos]

@Tier: Well, he's got 3 votes on him, currently. If you vote him, that's 4 and if anyone else votes him, he immediately hammers himself. So, effectively, if you vote him now, you place him at L-1.

[Mitillos]

@Mod: I may have limited internet access this weekend (I won't know for certain until Saturday afternoon), so I'm sort of semi-V/LA.

[Mitillos]

Since it came before any of your actions, of course it has absolutely nothing to do with them.

And by "sorted out", I mean that reads on you two are the most urgent ones.

OK, but "avoiding" is a subset of "not posting", is it not? And she certainly has been posting, so how could she have been avoiding the thread?

[Mitillos]

Back.

@absta: I don't really see how that suggests that farside was avoiding the game. 21 hours is fair enough for not posting. Also, why is Brian scum?

@Brian: Yes, if we're all town, the plan is pretty good, because it means only one night kill and it can't be the cop, so we get at least one investigation. As for your scenario for two mislynches, I already made that point, much earlier. If farside is scum and absta is town, we could be in a very bad position, with two mislynches.

@PrivateI: I never suggested lynching blindly. Scumhunting must still happen, obviously. If we do mislynch, well, it happens and we need to move on. If you let the possibility of mislynching stop you from ever lynching anyone, you'll almost never see a town victory.

@jklash: Still not sure if I'm getting it. Did you think Brian was a vig? And that PrivateI would try to get him mislynched, if he didn't use his power on N1?

Unvote

I'm thinking absta is pretty town, so far.

[Mitillos]

@Brian: Because repetition should be unnecessary. And yeah, Micc pointed it out first, but someone else didn't see the reason for D2 potentially being MyLo. I clarified, so it's not quite the same.

As for jklash, it's possible, sure. It's not like I'm calling him scum for it. I just didn't like the way he wasn't explaining clearly where he got the idea of a mislynch (being evasive, as I said). Transparency is pro-town.


Incidentally, I'm liking farside for town, as well.

@absta: Brian may or may not be scum, but we need him for the plan. Incidentally, we also need jklash. If there is no kill, his message is the only thing that could tell us if the roleblock happened. So, I'd prefer if neither of them was the D1 lynch. Not that your votes really matter. You're a hammerer. Sorry.

@jklash: Please send me a message tonight.


Reasoning: If the scumteam is not contained in {Brian, jklash, me} we will be certain that the plan will go off properly. (You can replace "me" with anyone else, but the same issues will arise.)

Explanation:
Suppose Brian is town. Then I won't get a message. If I'm scum and lie that I did get a message, jklash will know if I lied, because he will know the contents of the message. (This is why the scumteam {jklash, me} is bad for this plan.)

Now, suppose that Brian is scum. If he doesn't use his roleblock, I should get a message. If jklash is scum, he might not send it, which is why {Brian/jklash} is one of the scumteams that breaks this. If I'm scum, I could lie and say I didn't get it, which is why {Brian, me} breaks this. If neither of jklash and me are scum, we will know that the roleblock didn't happen and we can lynch Brian, to stop him from using his roleblock on N2 and blocking the investigation.
Of course, if Brian is scum and uses his roleblock, then he can't use it on N2, so the investigation should go through, either way. Unless Yiley dies, in which case, just lynch me, instead.

[Mitillos]

On D1, sure. But if you like: Brian's discussion of mechanics is not scummy. Not everyone forms reads in the same way or with the same speed. Some people want to interact directly with others, before forming an opinion on them. Your reasons for scumreading either him or jklash aren't enough to convince me to consider them scummy, at this time. This doesn't mean I'm opposed to lynching them, if there are better reasons for them being scum. If they are scum, their roles probably won't help us as much, in any case.

As for the message target, I can definitely agree to that.

Also, happy scumday.

@Micc: It is 4 people to lynch, by the way. 3 non-hammerer single-voters, 1 double-voter. That's 5 votes, hence L-1, hence hammerer hammers. farside was right about that. Also, I'm playing 4 games currently. I don't see the problem.

[Mitillos]

@Micc: Could you explain your Yiley read in more detail? Also, many happy returns.

@Brian: The thing is, he could have just been hastily slinging mud, then backed off when called out for it. I questioned him further, to see if that was the impression I got. It wasn't, but that doesn't invalidate the questioning. As for using the more powerful roles to find scum, that only works if those roles are on town. absta's worries are valid on that point, although I can see a bit of self-preservation in his objections as well, since his role is somewhat negative utility.

@Yiley: Could you give some reads? You haven't really said much. You're only going to get at most one investigation, so it's worrying that you're not trying your hardest to sort people out.

[Mitillos]

Liking jk for town. And yeah, pick your message target to be anyone you think is town, as long as it's not Brian (obviously).

@absta: I think Yiley should decide on his own how to pick his investigation target.

[Mitillos]

@Yiley: Care to explain the discrepancy Micc laid out in post 188? If you believe that town behaviour entails extensive involvement, why are you not engaging people here? How does staying away from the discussion help the town?

@Micc: Could you give me the link to the game where Yiley says this, please? You only linked his scumgame, as far as I can see.

@TierShift: I have had trouble finding categorically scummy behaviour in this game, but I'm interested in Yiley's response, right now. I think farside, absta, jklash and Micc look at least somewhat town, right now. This leaves Yiley, Brian Skies, you and PrivateI. I guess the scummiest of these would have to be Yiley, if he doesn't have a good response to Micc's meta.

Having said this, I don't like your "leave Yiley to me, I can figure him out" thing. Also, why are you asking if absta can or cannot filter out your scumreads, instead of simply giving them out directly? It looks like stalling.

@farside: Sorry about that. Too much lurking for my taste.

[Mitillos]

@farside: Post 36: Concern regarding the worst case scenario for town.

Post 113: Defended absta a little and made his intentions regarding you (the double-voter) clear, stating he didn't see either of you as scummy. This was largely unprompted, which shows interest in both townhunting and scumhunting.

Post 142: Trying to make the most of the roles, in terms of finding scum.Trying to break the game in favour of the town is good (even though I don't think it can work in this setup), and it's not being done at the expense of scumhunting, which would be a thing scum is more likely to do.

In addition, his case on Yiley is a very good starting point, at the very least. Saying that involvement is good and then staying largely out of the game is a clear contradiction.

Speaking of which, I found the link to the game where Yiley said that and I disagree with jklash. Yiley appears very active in that game, as a JK and most intervals of low activity from him seem to be centred around rl stuff (V/LA and so on) and night phases.

p-edit: @Tier: It's not about whether I can read or not. Someone called the clarity of your reads into question. Being abrasive about it doesn't help town, when you can just give the names or the post number where you believe that you gave your reads clearly. Sure, you don't have to, but it's not that difficult. And even if you don't, there's no need to say something as pointless as "You really can't filter out of my post who my scumspects are?". Like I said, it looks like stalling.

I understand not wanting to trust someone else's opinion of Yiley so readily, but that's exactly the problem. You're asking the town to do what you are refusing to do. You said "Yiley is easy to read imo so just leave that shit to me.", not "absta's probably wrong about Yiley".

As for my paragraphing, no, it used to be much worse, in my opinion. What would make my posts more readable, in your opinion? (Anyone can answer this.)

[Mitillos]

@Micc: Yeah, I saw it when I ISO'ed you again. Thanks.

[Mitillos]

@Yiley: You could have at least responded to what was said. Particularly Micc's meta read on you. Your earlier response to my question did not satisfy me, since you don't seem to actually be doing what you said (i.e. sorting people out). You are basically lurking and trying to keep out of sight. You said yourself that this is not pro-town and you were correct.

Vote: Yiley

[Mitillos]

@Tier: It's actually pretty simple. absta's role basically means that he is on every wagon automatically, at the same time. If you look at it that way, the math is easier to work out. He can vote for someone specific and that makes his name appear on that specific wagon explicitly, or unvote and have his name disappear from the wagons in the vote counts, but he is still on all the wagons, all the time.

@Brian: Do you agree to use your power on N1, or do you believe that it would be best to use it later? Will your answer change depending on today's lynch?

[Mitillos]

Unvote

This looks good. It's not a policy lynch, it's a strategic lynch. I'll read it thoroughly to see if I can find any errors.

@absta: Any thoughts on post 278?

[Mitillos]

To be completely honest, I'd rather lynch PrivateI or Yiley, at this point. Both have lurked the game away and I'm not seeing much in the way of scumminess from the other players, yet.

In fact, PrivateI has basically only really talked about Yiley. As farside pointed out, he hasn't given any scumreads. He's been sitting on his RV and his biggest contributions were to 1) sort of suggest a no-lynch and 2) defend Yiley, without even giving a read on him, until much later (111 posts and 5 days later, to be precise).

So, my preferential lynch order is PrivateI > Yiley > absta (only for strategic purposes) > anyone else.

Vote: PrivateI

In the worst case, where he flips town, we can still decide on whether we want to lynch absta tomorrow.

Incidentally, anyone who believes that absta is town should want to keep absta alive for now and try to find his partner, instead. The reason is that, just as a town hammerer can be manipulated by scum, a scum hammerer can be manipulated by the town. His vote is not his own. As counter-intuitive as this sounds, if you think absta is scum, you should look for his partner first, at least for D1.

[Mitillos]

@Tier: Where did I suggest anything like that? I suggested that if you believe absta is scum, you should look for his partner today and leave absta for D2 at least. And yeah, I already said that I'm good with a Yiley lynch, as well. Second choice and all that. I'll most likely be around for the last few hours before deadline, so you don't have to worry about the mobility of my vote.

Oh, wait. PrivateI got back and put him at L-1 and said virtually nothing else. Yeah, this PrivateI lynch is happening tomorrow if Brian uses his power.

@Brian: If you are town, you should use your power tonight, to make the numbers work in our favour in the long run. Also, if you don't, you may never get to use it and that doesn't help town.

[Mitillos]

Yes, he is. But I thought that since he voted Yiley and put him at L-1, the lynch happened and we're now at twilight.

If that's not the case, more PrivateI votes, please.

[Mitillos]

@Tier: He asked the mod to fix his tags, immediately after. Even if N doesn't accept PI's vote, we should take it to have been intended as a real one. It's very convenient how he was around to hammer the cop, when he has basically lurked the game away this entire time.

[Mitillos]

@Micc: I hope you understand if I don't answer that question, until after jklash and Brian answer your other questions, at the very least.

In particular, I think the order of the questions should be as follows:

@jklash: Whom did you send a message to?
@Brian: Did you RB?
@Target of jklash: Did you receive the message? If yes, what was it?
@jklash, if the message was received: Was that your actual message?
@Me: If the message was received: Whom did I protect?

[Mitillos]

As for absta, I think we shouldn't lynch him for strategic purposes.

Let's say that our next actual lynch is PrivateI. For the purposes of analysing worst case scenarios, assume PrivateI is town (roaring guffaws) and farside is scum.
1) If we lynch absta and then PrivateI, we will be down to 6 votes, with mafia controlling 3. They win.
2) If we lynch PrivateI, we will be down to 7 votes, with both mafia and town controlling up to 4. Mafia is only two people, it's easier for both of them to act quickly, they most likely win.

(All the above isn't even an issue, if farside is town.)

The absta lynch buys us one day, but it's a bit of a pointless day, since we already waste one day lynching absta. We do not gain any additional mislynch freedom.

So, the only reason to lynch absta is if we think he's scum. Or if we think scum will play nice and kill the person we were going to mislynch, to give us a sporting chance at victory (more roaring guffaws). But, if we think absta is scum, the scenario above is irrelevant, because mafia doesn't control extra votes, so we might as well go for his partner first.

Now, I am currently townreading absta, so unless the night actions show that he is scum and we can't find his partner (or someone points out an error in my analysis), I will be opposed to absta's lynch.

[Mitillos]

@Micc: If farside is scum and absta is town and we lynch absta and then PrivateI and PrivateI flips town, we automatically lose, because there is no way to lynch scum; they control half the votes.
If we lynch PrivateI first and he flips town, there is still the small chance we can avoid losing on D3, by quickly voting for one of the scum, before they get to do their own thing.

If PrivateI is scum, we lose nothing by lynching him before absta.

If absta is scum, we should look for his buddy first, if we can, in any case, since absta can't control his own vote. We have one more day of freedom, if that is the case.

If farside is town, things get pushed back a day, so it's still fine either way.

[Mitillos]

@jklash: The whole point of you sending a message was to test if the roleblock was actually used. I explained this in 140.

Well, it doesn't matter anyway, since we lynched the investigative role on D1, so the RB is irrelevant.

Screw it. I'm dying tonight, so see you guys in the Dead QT and the post-game. Now let's get some scum.

Vote: PrivateI

[Mitillos]

@jklash: It happens. It would have been really bad if Yiley was still alive and you hadn't sent your message, but I guess two wrongs can make a non-wrong.

Forget about it, move on and tell us your reads.

[Mitillos]

@Micc: The scenario I gave was under the conditions that absta is town and farside is scum. If that's the case, lynching absta is a commitment to mislynch. Saving a day by wasting a day on a mislynch does not have a net gain. Beyond this, I'm really not sure what you're asking here.

[Mitillos]

@Micc: But I explained why there is a net loss. If farside is scum, lynching absta now means we automatically lose if the next lynch is a mislynch. No more chances. On the other hand, if we do that lynch first and it does turn out to be a mislynch, we could still have a chance to survive, if absta is still around. That's the net loss of lynching absta now.

Either way, this is all academic, because PrivateI is obvscum and needs rope and farside is probtown.

[Mitillos]

@PrivateI: Why are you asking jklash such a pointless question? We already talked about the message. Not only that, because you hammered Yiley, it doesn't even matter if Brian used his power or not. There is no role left, to which a universal roleblock becomes a detriment from now on.
This reeks of stalling. You had a significant time to go through D1 again, but you still haven't given any actual reads. The only one you made was "Yiley's probably town, oh wait, maybe he could be scum after all, oh wait, I guess I'll lynch him and hope he's scum, oh wait, I didn't realise I lynched him until it was too late".

[Mitillos]

Eh, he'll be prodded in less than that (or just jump in to dodge a prod), and then he'll probably pop in and say very little of consequence, then disappear again.

[Mitillos]

@absta:
Micc took the trouble of trying to figure out a best course of action for the town. If his conclusion was a correct one, I'd be 100% town-reading him. Unfortunately, as I said a couple of times now, his conclusion was incorrect, so I'm not quite that certain. He could be scum, trying to direct the town down a bad path. Or, he could be town who simply got it wrong.
On the whole, I still lean town on him.

Tier may well be scum. His posts at the end of D1 bothered me a bit. And today, it seemed like he was trying to move the discussion away from PrivateI. We'll see.

@farside: If not PrivateI, then who? In any case, his actions could indicate bad town, or they could indicate lurking scum. There was only one investigative role in the game. Suppose PrivateI's buddy is someone who isn't being suspected by anyone right now. PrivateI's power means that even if he gets lynched, he can continue talking the next day. He can say whatever, spam the thread slightly, make it harder for the town to gain cohesion. The sacrifice of a Treestump is minimal, compared to ensuring that there is no investigation, if there is a reasonable chance his partner won't be suspected.
PrivateI's vote came quite suddenly, once Yiley was one non-absta vote away from lynching. He's also pretty much lurking the game away. He gave a not-really-a-read on Yiley and now is saying that "others think absta is scum". These aren't reads.
Also, he's saying that we should lynch absta, so he doesn't make it to LyLo. But there are two problems with this:
1) His actions made it so we could already be in LyLo.
2) I already explained why we need to keep absta alive today and concentrate on finding scum, instead of trying to be clever with the setup. There will be time enough to do a strategic lynch tomorrow, if we find scum. And if we don't, keeping absta around is the only thing that gives us a second chance tomorrow (if farside does happen to be scum; otherwise we're in a much better position anyway).

[Mitillos]

@farside: My view of jk didn't change at that point. It formed. I had been trying to figure him out, before that. I think it was mostly jklash's response to absta, in post 167. I'm not sure I can explain why, but it reads as town to me. There were a couple of other things later, as well, but I probably should ISO jklash again, just in case.

Regarding Micc's case on Yiley, I was actually mistaken in 207. I went back and looked; Micc had also posted a town game for Yiley, where he specifically said that this sort of behaviour was anti-town. In any case, a previous scum game where we see the same behaviour as in this one, really is a good place to start, when making a case. It's not a case on its own, but it's something one can actually work with. So, yeah, Micc's meta on Yiley was a good starting point, even if it turned out to be wrong.

If replaced, sure, a player needs to stop posting. But he hadn't been replaced yet. He could easily just ask the mod to let him continue posting, since he was still present. Then he wouldn't need to make a post as useless as "Oh, I'm getting replaced."

If most of the active players look at least somewhat town, or even null, then yes, I'll tunnel lurkers, until something significant happens, to change my mind about someone. Anyone who isn't actively trying to find scum is helping scum with their apathy. Anyway, PrivateI isn't simply lurking. He's been an active lurker throughout. He got a few prods, dodged a few more and pretty much avoid any actual participation in the game.

My main scum suspect is PrivateI. I already explained why, a few times. I guess the next highest would probably be Tier, as I mentioned in my previous post. Beyond that, I'm not really sure, so if either of these two happens to be town, I'll really have to do some re-reading.

@Brian: I have explained this already...
Suppose we lynch absta today for strategic reasons. Then, say we mislynch. Now, say farside is scum (worst case scenario). Then there are 6 votes left, scum controls 3, town controls 3. Scum cannot be lynched, so they win. The game is automatically over.
Now suppose we don't waste a day lynching absta. Say we mislynch today and farside is scum (same scenario as above). Then there are 7 votes left, scum controls 4, but

town also controls 4

. If the 3 remaining town players are quicker than the 2 scum players, they could still get a scum lynch and survive.
In both these cases, we only have one mislynch. An absta lynch doesn't save us a day, because it also takes a day away already. The absta flip itself is irrelevant, if we are only doing it for the purpose of vote control.
Furthermore, if farside is town, things are even better for us, so we really don't need to lynch absta in that situation.

So, the only reason to lynch absta is if you actually believe he is scum and you really can't find his partner. As it happens, I'm townreading absta and scumreading PrivateI, so I'm against an absta lynch.

[Mitillos]

@Brian: Except that that scenario says that we lynch absta strategically and then we mislynch, i.e. someone else. The point is how many mislynches we get, before we lose, in either situation. If we lynch absta for purposes of strategy, he does not count as one of the allowed mislynches, because we're basically committing ourselves to lynching him for his role, not his alignment. We get one mislynch (the D3 one) and then we lose. On the other hand, if we don't lynch absta, we get one mislynch and we still have a small chance to not lose.

I'm not sure what I'm not explaining clearly, here. Let me break it down by steps:

Scenario A1: Whereby we lynch absta for strategic purposes and he is town.
On N2, someone dies.
On D3, we pick someone to lynch.
On N3, someone dies.
In the worst case scenario, farside is scum and the D3 lynch is a mislynch.
Then, we lose. Automatically. After one mislynch. Because absta's lynch will not count as a mislynch, since it is being done for reasons of strategy.

Scenario A2: Whereby we do not lynch absta and he is town.
On D2 we lynch someone.
On N2, someone dies.
Same worst case scenario. farside scum, D2 mislynch.
We still got one mislynch, just like in A1.
But now, either scum wins, or town manages to get out of losing, depending on who manages to get on and do their thing, first. Sure, mafia is far more likely to do it, but it's better than an automatic loss.

So, lynching absta means we forgo the possibility of surviving, if we mislynch afterwards. Not lynching absta allows us to at least have the small chance of not losing outright.

Now suppose absta is scum. Then we should aim to find his partner first, then (after a successful scumlynch) we can lynch absta without any worries. If we can't find his partner, sure, we should lynch him first. But the thing about this, is that I haven't seen a decent case on absta, yet. Micc said something about absta being pushy, but that's a massive assumption, that everyone behaves similarly.

Also, suppose farside is town. Then everything gets pushed back a day, unless she dies overnight. There is still no good reason to lynch absta.

[Mitillos]

@Tier: The numbers aren't exactly the important thing here. What's important is something you briefly mentioned in that post, but didn't elaborate on: that town-absta being alive turns a loss to LyLo and a LyLo to MyLo. Which, in turn means that absta must not be lynched today. Which is what I've been trying to get across. But Micc and Brian said they didn't get what I meant, so I've had to make the explanations more and more verbose and therefore not nice or clean.

[Mitillos]

This is the third time I get asked that today...

And it's not a matter of preference at all. What you are recommending maximises nothing and does not constitute playing it safe. You are suggesting we gain a lynch, by wasting a lynch. That is counter-productive.

[Mitillos]

I do think absta is town. I'm not 100% certain of course, but my read on him is what it is. However, if you think he could be scum then:

1) Make an actual case on him, instead of pushing for a strategic lynch, and
2) We should look for his partner first, in any case. If absta is scum, he has no control over his own vote, so we have more breathing space. A day of looking for his partner is a good idea.

If there's a good case on why absta is scum ("he is more pushy than I expect town to be" is not a good case at all) and there is little consensus as to who else might be scum, then an absta lynch could make sense.

[Mitillos]

Dodging the prod, pre-emptively.

I'm re-evaluating my Tier and Micc reads. Expect updated comprehensive reads some time during the weekend.

Meanwhile, @Private: absta

is

voting Tier.

[Mitillos]

Part 1 of my current reads:

absta

: He's been extremely active, interacting with everyone. He questions suspicious behaviour and scumhunts. His reads are fluid, but they don't follow the town's trend. I see nothing here that doesn't point to him being town. The only situation where I would vote him, would be if that was the optimal mislynch for town, due to his role.

Read: Town.

Brian

: I don't like lurkers. This guy is third for fewest posts in the game, after Yiley and PrivateI. On the other hand, the content of his posts is good. His responses to accusations and his questions on what he finds suspicious all seem pretty well-reasoned. He was also quick to point out the contradiction of people saying that PrivateI's lurking is not alignment-indicative, whilst Yiley's was. I'd still like him to post more often.

Read: Null-town.

farside

: Almost everything is alright here, but there are two things which give me pause.
The first was how she joined the Yiley wagon and then "switched" to PrivateI after Yiley got lynched. It could be a simple mistake, or it could be because she's scum, trying to seem like she wasn't really committed to the Yiley lynch (because scum would be committed to it, since he was the only investigative role). Not only that, but she got on the Yiley wagon due to the deadline; the PrivateI wagon was exactly as large as Yiley's at that time (VC right before her vote), so it was at least as valid and not on a cop. (The TS one was not as viable, since absta was already on it.)
The second worrying thing was in post 441, where she categorically said that if we mislynch today, we end up in LyLo tomorrow. Assuming a mislynch and a NK that aren't her, we'll be down to 6 people, i.e. 7 votes. If she's town and we no-lynch, even if she dies overnight, we're down to 5 votes, with both town and mafia controlling 3 votes each (including absta's).

Read: Mostly town

, but I'd really like a response to the two points above.

jklash

: Not sure what to make of him right now. I was thinking he was town, but looking back, some things bother me a little. For instance, choosing to not use his power (which is not limited to a specific number of uses). Also, posts 259 and 267 came with less than a day between them, but pretty much show a significant dissonance. The only significant thing that came between them was Yiley promising to stop lurking and posting some reads.
The only reason I'm leaving him at null is that all this may be due to the fact he's new to mafia.

Read: Null

The reads for PrivateI, Micc and Tier will come some time on Saturday or Sunday. I need to read Micc and Tier's ISOs a bit more, to make my mind up about them.

[Mitillos]

@farside: Your numbers are still incorrect. A mislynch leaves us at 7 players - 5 town and 2 scum - for N1; not 7 town, 2 scum. I'm not sure I'm satisfied with this. You're the doublevoter. If you're town, you are currently the biggest asset we have (with the cop gone), so you should be more clear on the numbers, to avoid any mishaps.

@Micc: You are wrong. I don't know how else to say this and I've said it several times. If absta is town, his lynch is currently not good for the town. It might end up not being bad either, or it might end up being horrible. All that we gain by lynching him is seeing his alignment, but this is true of anyone we lynch. Beyond that, we simply risk forgoing the ability to survive in a situation where we'd otherwise automatically lose. As Tier said, he turns LyLo to MyLo and MyLo to safety.

You say that lynching him has the same effect as lynching scum, but it also has the same effect as lynching town. His is not only a vote that scum can manipulate, it's also a vote that town can deny from scum. All it takes is cooperation. Which is exactly what mafia is all about, in my view.

Basically, town-absta will be the optimal lynch, once a scum flips. I think that in that situation, he might even be an optimal lynch, even if he is 100% town. Before that though, his lynch is a bad idea. Scum-absta on the other hand, would be a viable lynch. But on that front, you promised a case and haven't delivered, yet.

You say that scum can also interact with everyone and be active. This is true, but it is also true of every pro-town behaviour. Town can lynch scum; so can scum. Town can try to expose fallacious arguments to protect others from getting lynched; so can scum. But in the end, if you don't look for pro-town and anti-town behaviour, you can't figure out who is likely to be scum or town, so you can't make reads. In short, when a person is doing a bunch of pro-town things and pretty much no anti-town things, you make damn sure they aren't lynched, especially for bad reasons.

Activity is pro-town. It allows people to read you and see what you are about. And absta isn't even fluffing or spamming, he's contributing. Sure, scum could do this, but that doesn't make the behaviour less pro-town. Especially since scum will be more likely to want to stay out of things a bit, to avoid saying the wrong thing. The same goes for interacting with everyone. Scum can do it. Town is more likely to do it, because it is pro-town behaviour (looking everywhere for scum, without assuming that someone is town for no reason).

How can you tell the difference between fake interactions by scum and legitimate town-sided scumhunting? The short answer is no one can. The longer answer involves explanations about how it's generally very difficult to tell, particularly with a strong player who has a lot of experience. The point is that there are certain actions. You made an ad-hoc decision to view these as fake, not because of their content, but because of their style (e.g. "over-accusatory" tone). Belief should have nothing to do with it. If you have no actual evidence that suggests his interactions are fake, the null hypothesis must be that he's town, who is trying to scumhunt.

What do you mean "at the moment"? He named you three (plus Brian) as his list for where scum is likely to be, on D1. When pretty much no one else voiced much suspicion about Tier or Private. And I think only jklash said he was leaning scum on you, at the time. absta made his reads before the trend started. If the town started following suit afterwards, that doesn't change anything.

Fluid reads suggest that he is ready to reconsider his position, when presented with new evidence. Again, scum could do it too, but town (or at least good town) is far more likely to do it. Scum are more likely to avoid it, in order to not be seen as trying to find the best wagon to push.

[Mitillos]

@farside: Post 345 has the right numbers of players. Post 495 has the wrong number of players. Neither has the right number of votes. Because of your role and the hammerer, the regular notions of LyLo and MyLo have to be discarded, in a sense.

Basically, when we're at 4v2, if you're still alive, there are 7 votes left. It takes 4 to lynch and mafia control between 1 and 4, depending on your alignment and absta's.

I'm sorry for confusing you. It's just that I'm fairly certain I'll be tonight's kill (unless mafia decides to go the WIFOM route) and I want you to be perfectly clear on the situation, after I'm gone. That's pretty much the most I can do for the town right now, other than point out who I think is scum.

[Mitillos]

Here are the rest of the reads I promised:

Micc:

He's been mostly dealing with mechanics and roles, which is somewhat understandable. Seems to be trying hard to get the optimal town actions, but we disagree on which lynch would be optimal. So, from my point of view, either I'm wrong, or he's town who is honestly mistaken, or he's scum trying to deceive the town. His meta case on Yiley was largely what led to his mislynch, but on the other hand, it was a valid-looking case, at the very least, and Yiley did nothing to alleviate all the suspicion.

Read: Null-Town.

PrivateI:

I've already said a lot about this one. First he claimed that Yiley's behaviour was null, then he questions Micc for wanting to lynch Yiley, even though he's the cop, and then, he effectively hammered the cop, claiming he hadn't realised that his vote was the hammer. ISO me for more on PrivateI.

Read: Scum.

TierShift:

Seems to have a lot of paranoia (in a good sense), regarding both the players and the setup. In many ways, his thoughts seem to match my own. He is also going through the numbers and trying to find the worst scenarios, so that we can avoid them. I said that he might be scum, earlier, but I've changed my mind on him. I'd still like to see the rest of his reads, preferably in a non-spamposting manner.

Read: Null-town.

But somewhat more town than Micc and Brian.


With this, by a process of elimination, jklash moves up to second scummiest, so here is my preferred lynching order:

PrivateI > jklash > Brian ~= Micc > Tier > farside > absta.

Except that absta will likely move to the very top, when we get one scum flip, unless night-time shenanigans occur.

[Mitillos]

@Mod: I'll be semi-V/LA until Friday. I'll still be around, but probably not as responsive.

[Mitillos]

@Tier: So, you're saying Private is too scummy to be scum?

[Mitillos]

@Tier: jklash is both town and in the scumpool? Also, why does Brian not going for the Private vote make him town? If anything, that's really the one thing that makes me a bit suspicious of Brian, since he was on PrivateI's wagon, at the end of D1.

[Mitillos]

For crying out loud...

@Micc: Yes, lynching town-absta now leaves us no worse tomorrow than we are today. But if our next actual lynch is a mislynch, we are worse off if we lynch town-absta first, than if we don't. And if the next lynch is on scum, there is no issue of things being worse, anyway.

This is the whole point: the game doesn't simply end tomorrow (unless farside happens to be scum with someone other than absta). Making things no worse tomorrow but making them significantly worse the next time we mislynch is idiotic, to the point of being suicidal.

If you want people to lynch absta, show why he is scum, or wait until we get a scum flip first. Otherwise, explain to me why the scenario of an automatic loss on the next mislynch is preferable to one where we have a chance of survival (which is really the only difference between lynching absta and not lynching him, if he's town).

@farside: I'm having a lot of trouble parsing many of your posts. Did you have a question for me in post 583? You say "@Private and Mit:" but then I don't really see anything that's directed at me.

Also, tier is right to be paranoid about you, just in case. If you happen to be scum, things are really bad for the town already, so it's important for each of us to make sure that we are confident in our reads on you.

As it happens, the only ways for you to be scum right now are with either PrivateI or absta, otherwise you'd simply have lynched PrivateI and then someone else on D3 and win. This means we can absolutely eliminate any scumteam which contains you and neither of those two.

@Aj: Welcome. I think tier was asking Yiley to obvtown (as in, town-tell), not claiming that Yiley was obvtown.

@tier: Questions in 559.

@Brian: Or you could give some reads and thoughts, instead of lurking.

--------------------------------------------------

Comprehensive exam looming. V/LA turning even more real from now. Do ask questions if you have them, though. It'll just be a while before I get to them.

Also, wish me luck.

[Mitillos]

So, I'm done with my Comprehensive exam (I passed) and am finally back, so my V/LA is over.

You guys hammered AJ. I guess I'm fine with that, since he's my second highest scumread. I'd still prefer the obvious PrivateI lynch, since HE'S CLEARLY SCUM, WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU GUYS THINKING?

Anyway, see you in the post-game.

[Mitillos]

@Brian: You were absolutely right (in the Mafia thread). From D2 onwards, I was going to protect farside throughout.

What I still don't get is why no one considered PrivateI for lynching. He was very very scummy. And even Brian was less towny than Tier and absta, who were the only two people actually considered for lynching on D3.

Anyway, congratulations to Brian and MME.

[Mitillos]

Oh, also, which of you was the one trying to figure me out by checking my blog?

[Mitillos]

@Brian: The most suspicious thing you did was not pick up your attack on PrivateI on D2 (as I mentioned before). If more people were in favour of his lynch, that might have helped tie you to him, after his flip. Sadly, PrivateI lurked the game away with impunity.

[Mitillos]

@Eek: Like what? Make bullshit claims about who your partner was?

If you think about it, the most you could have done would be to cause doubt in people. But people would know your alignment and (hopefully) treat your words as unreliable at best.

@Brian: Well, in any case, you guys certainly outplayed the town. Your victory was well-deserved. Although, if I had the slightest idea how to convince people to sheep me, things might have gone very differently.