Kingmaker II-Game Over


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Post Post #1925 (ISO) » Tue Apr 03, 2007 7:30 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:PJ, it was meant to be an early-game determinant, since there really wasn't enough material to work with to make me think that anyone without any votes was there because they truly looked protown.
PJ wrote:Noted something which I may point out later after MoS answers questions in this post.
For those interested, this is consistent with MoS's answer in his 60th post (when you look at his posts in isolation), which was what I noted here, but I figured I would ask him the question to see if MoS stuck to his guns. I'll just find it and quote it real quick:
MoS, his post 60 wrote:I thought I already explained the voting tell. Out of context (using just the vote count), someone who has placed a lot of votes without receiving many themselves seems to be flying under the radar or not really garnering much attention, in part because they have spread their suspicions around so much that they aren't really committing to making concerted attacks on any particular people.
I figured that early game, that was as good a tell as I was going to get.
Emphasis mine. Still leaning against a MoS execution.
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Post Post #1926 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:22 am

Post by VitaminR »

petroleumjelly wrote:Again, I will point out:
PJ, Just earlier wrote:...you don't have much behavior on which to touch on, so this wording strikes me as overly dismissive.
True, and I'll try to address your points fairly.
petroleumjelly wrote: 1.) Post 1829, you mention Dead Rikimaru off-hand as an early-game suspicion.
2.) Post 1830, you mention a few people you think are town/scum, but with absolutely no reasoning (read: nothing
I
can comment on).
3.) Post 1831, you are calling people who found Pooky suspicious on D2 suspicious.
4.) Post 1832, you further this line of thought. You again call somebody pro-town with no reasoning whatsoever.
Note
: I also find it silly how anybody who started poking at Pooky on D2 suspicious. I'm not sure what you expect - what would you have thought if
nobody
picked up on the Pooky suspicion? Though I cannot speak for others, I didn't poke at Pooky until D2 because I didn't find him overly
suspicious
until D2.
I just found it strange how a number of people suddenly came out with Pooky votes very easily when Glork is pretty much alone in his suspicions Day 1.
petroleumjelly wrote:5.) Post 1837, again a post with very little reasoning, even though it is accompanied with three votes.
Yeah, those are mostly placeholders. I intended to outline the notes I have on them, but with such a big thread, that takes a while to do...

For now, they are mostly there for others to see where my opinions are at the moment.
petroleumjelly wrote:And since I am
also
suspicious of SV, I wasn't going to start poking you about that. Given what little you have actually talked about
besides that
in the game, I'm afraid I don't understand how else I'm supposed to do anything but "pick out a rather small part of my posts so far to consider". Fact is, there isn't much to consider in your posts as they are currently, so I figured I'd start by asking about your change in opinion on DR/Smashy. It will be possible for me to have more pointed questions once you start giving explanations.
Fair enough.

DR/Smashy:

- he tried to make too much out of the pablito/Glork interaction page 2
This is the only negative thing I have listed.

- seems genuinely lost
Yes, he was a very absent king, but lurking does not equate scumminess. He seemed swamped and pretty lost as a king, trying but not really sure enough to take responsibility.

I think it would have been much easier for scum to fake certainty (you can just pick the player people find most suspicious). His behaviour matches what I'd expect for someone who doesn't want to go down as a bad king and doesn't know what choice to make in order to avoid that.

- very quick wagon
Also, the case on him built up so fast and on so little that I think scum involvement is pretty likely.

All in all, I wouldn't want to clear him for being lost as a king, but I do think it is all the case against him is supported by. He hasn't really done anything significantly scummy.
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Post Post #1927 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:52 am

Post by Zindaras »

Shanba wrote:Geh. Is it normal for people not to post in over a week?
Zindaras- last post March 22
Lowell- Last post March 22
Fritzler- Last post March 23

It's somewhat frustrating now. Especially as Zindaras was going to be the next one I perssure.
Go ahead and pressure me. I read, I comment wherever I have something to comment.

I agree completely with PJ's assessment of Vitty and MoS. I still believe in mnowax and voidybuns executions.
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68 Wins, 71 Losses
Town: 52 Wins, 54 Losses (2 Wins as Cult)
Mafia: 13 Wins, 15 Losses (1 Win as Cult)
Other: 3 Wins, 1 Loss (1 Win as Cult)
Cult: 0 Wins, 1 Loss
Cultivated: 4 Wins, 0 Losses
59 Survived, 31 Lynched, 60 Killed
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Post Post #1928 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:27 am

Post by Battle Mage »

well a quick reread (as requested) of Smashy doesnt reveal alot. It doesnt look like he was particularly active, nor did he fully explain his reasons behind the execution. I disagree with many of his player analyses but to be honest i dont think he looks scummy. I just think he looks like someone who didnt really care about playing the game after he had enjoyed his moment of glory.
Still, I am not Smashy, and i will continue rereading to try and find out who is scum.
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Post Post #1929 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:30 am

Post by Shanba »

Yeah, you'd best reread Dead rikimaru too, who Smashy replaced
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Post Post #1930 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:38 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Battle Mage wrote:well a quick reread (as requested) of Smashy doesnt reveal alot. It doesnt look like he was particularly active, nor did he fully explain his reasons behind the execution. I disagree with many of his player analyses but to be honest i dont think he looks scummy. I just think he looks like someone who didnt really care about playing the game after he had enjoyed his moment of glory.
Still, I am not Smashy, and i will continue rereading to try and find out who is scum.
BM
Um... I have to ask: How well have you read the game so far?

If your answer is in any way synonymous to "not very well", please explain to me how you can possibly "disagree with many of his player analyses"?
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Post Post #1931 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2007 3:52 am

Post by Battle Mage »

ive read the first half of the game fully, and have drawn my own opinions from that. Obviously this has allowed me to draw basic opinions on many of the players-especially knowing that Pooky was scum.
BM


petroleumjelly wrote:
Battle Mage wrote:well a quick reread (as requested) of Smashy doesnt reveal alot. It doesnt look like he was particularly active, nor did he fully explain his reasons behind the execution. I disagree with many of his player analyses but to be honest i dont think he looks scummy. I just think he looks like someone who didnt really care about playing the game after he had enjoyed his moment of glory.
Still, I am not Smashy, and i will continue rereading to try and find out who is scum.
BM
Um... I have to ask: How well have you read the game so far?

If your answer is in any way synonymous to "not very well", please explain to me how you can possibly "disagree with many of his player analyses"?
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Post Post #1932 (ISO) » Wed Apr 04, 2007 12:23 pm

Post by Thesp »

Still planning to re-read, so sorry! :(
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Post Post #1933 (ISO) » Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:29 am

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The last I heard from PJ about me was
1) I was scummy for not disagreeing with everyone whom Glork put on the LOS. I've explained this already. (For BM: this is regarding the whole Yos/Glork issue.)

2) For changing my mind against Glork (re: the possibility of Glork bussing.) Again, I've responded to this. The only thing PJ has said is that he doesn't believe I forgot this was kingmaker. Call it dumb, but yes, I did.
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Post Post #1934 (ISO) » Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:07 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

If DR/Smashy/Replacement are indeed scum when they die eventually, I will be very suspicious of VitaminR and Battle Mage. That being, said, it's a long way off since I truly hope we get rid of mnowax today. At best, he's the scummy mcscum scum that he looks like, and at worst, he's a very bad townie.
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Post Post #1935 (ISO) » Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:11 am

Post by Shanba »

MoS: Battle Mage is Smashy's replacement (so yes, if Smashy turned up scum I would be wary of Battle Mage too.)
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Post Post #1936 (ISO) » Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:26 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

petroleumjelly wrote: Overall... I still lean
against
a MoS execution. I don't really appreciate his chosen playstyle for the game, but his analyses look pretty clean to me, and although he isn't voting, he is making who he wants executed fairly clear. Not many things I can find which I find which strike me as
scummy
. I will have to read the cases against him to see if there is something I have missed, but I'm thinking he is more likely to be town than scum at this point.
Yeah, I tend to agree, for the moment anyway.
spectrumvoid wrote: The case for VR.
1) He's scummy because of wagoning. PJ refuted that in the later post.
No, he didn't. At least, Phoebus certanly was wagoning.
2) The 'kill anybody' attitude. PJ said it's premature. I think it's alright. I think this boils down to a personal playstyle issue, and not a scum-tell.
"kill anyone, I don't care" is just not a pro-town way of acting, at all. It's a complete giving up of your responsibilities.
I don't like a VR lynch for today. I'll respond to the MoS thing later, but I prefer his execution.
Ok, but like I said, right now I'm mostly considering VR, Battlemage (who replaced smashy), and mnowax. So what do you think about battlemage/smashy and mnowax? Earlier, you said you were in favor of executing smashy, but now you don't even mention him. Any specific reason for that?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1937 (ISO) » Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:55 pm

Post by spectrumvoid »

In post 1987, I've stated that I'll be perfectly happy with a Smashy lynch. I haven't added anything because I still am.

Not to sound childish or anything, but yes, PJ did. He said to drop that from the analysis.

I did not give up my responsibilities, else I wouldn't be here. Else I wouldn't have gone after Glork, which led to the whole Glork fiasco.
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Post Post #1938 (ISO) » Fri Apr 06, 2007 1:40 am

Post by Battle Mage »

rofl. :lol:


Shanba wrote:MoS: Battle Mage is Smashy's replacement (so yes, if Smashy turned up scum I would be wary of Battle Mage too.)
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Post Post #1939 (ISO) » Fri Apr 06, 2007 3:27 am

Post by VitaminR »

Yos, I've been re-reading (because I'm pretty unhappy about being on the LoE) and I have to say I don't think your position is warranted.

Phoebus may have been your main suspect throughout the game, but you have to realise he only has
seventeen
posts. In contrast, you have over a hundred. I really think you're being premature in drawing conclusions.

With 78 pages of content, your case against someone should consist of more than "he wagoned, wagoning is scummy."
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Post Post #1940 (ISO) » Fri Apr 06, 2007 5:56 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

That's not my entire case againt him/you, VitaminR, as I've made clear.

You seem to be suggesting that it's not fair to attack Phoubus because he only had 17 posts and didn't contribute a whole lot. Which is absurd; I'm not going to be LESS suspicious of someone BECAUSE they were lurking and didn't contribute a whole lot. THe posts he did make looked scummy to me, for several reasons, and the fact that some time has passed between then and now dosn't change anything.

SV: PJ never said that Phoebus wasn't bandwagoning. PJ did say that DOS wasn't bandwagoning, which I suppose is true, but frankly, DOS didn't really do much of anything. Which is again not a point in his favor.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1941 (ISO) » Fri Apr 06, 2007 6:17 am

Post by VitaminR »

True, this is what you put forth as your case:
Yosarian2 wrote:VitimanR: As you can see from some of my other posts, Phoebus was my main supect for a big part of the game. Not just because of lurking; the posts Phoebus did make seem quite scummy; he was just following the crowd with his votes, generally refusing to say anything useful or give any specific reasons for the few votes he did make, lurking, promising to post more and then not following through, and making excuses for lurking. DOS didn't really say much of anything, and nothng VitimanR has done yet has changed my mind yet about that role.
This comes down to wagoning and lurking.
Yosarian2 wrote:Which is absurd; I'm not going to be LESS suspicious of someone BECAUSE they were lurking and didn't contribute a whole lot.
This does not follow from:
Yosarian2 wrote:You seem to be suggesting that it's not fair to attack Phoubus because he only had 17 posts and didn't contribute a whole lot.
What I am suggesting is that it is unfair to attack someone on the basis of wagoning when there is very little material to judge them on, specifically because the two are related factors.

It's primarily a scarcity of evidence issue, but what makes your case even more problematic is that non-activity is an important cause of opportunism in voting.

I think that the fact that I have more posts than Phoebus had speaks for itself.
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Post Post #1942 (ISO) » Fri Apr 06, 2007 7:41 pm

Post by VitaminR »

Explanation for my votes:

RafK


As Mert:
- Too much discussion of mechanics
He discussed game mechanics rather heavily Day 1 without going into suspicions.

- poking for opinions without giving opinions
He then started asking direct questions about people's suspicions, still without giving his own.

- bad votes when he does vote
The votes he did cast was very easy. I seem to remember he voted Phoebus for the gut play, among other things. I have to admit my memory is a bit hazy on this one.

- complaining about "woe is me" votes
No idea what this means... I'll have to go back and find that.

- implying a Phoebus/MoS "tag-team" (explanation is good, though)
He explained this.

As RafK:

- Easy Pooky Vote
Voted Pooky rather easily.

- CES vote has no content
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Post Post #1943 (ISO) » Fri Apr 06, 2007 7:45 pm

Post by VitaminR »

KaleiÐoscøpe


- Easy Pooky Vote
- Easy Yos Vote (both following Glork expressing suspicion)
This is mostly why I found him suspicious. I didn't like this. He seemed to follow Glork rather obediently.

- response to LL's suspicions reads like I would respond as scum
I'll have to dig this out, can't remember the post at the moment.

- "I would vote myself if I didn't know I was town"
Thought this was a scummy thing to say.
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Post Post #1944 (ISO) » Fri Apr 06, 2007 11:56 pm

Post by KaleiÐoscøpe »

To respond to your suspicion: I've voted pooky because it was almost the end of the day and there were two prime suspects at that moment (IIRC) and Glork was about to "Glork" someone. I choose the person I would rather see dead at that point: the one who advocated a quick hammer on my previous alignment card which I know to be town.
- "I would vote myself if I didn't know I was town"
Thought this was a scummy thing to say.
This was also a logical thing to say, considering bird lurked whole day one and suddenly popped up after the night... It would seem like scum could've prodded him to post more. Even I would've gone suspicious about it if I was around at that time already.
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Post Post #1945 (ISO) » Sat Apr 07, 2007 1:05 am

Post by VitaminR »

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]To respond to your suspicion: I've voted pooky because it was almost the end of the day and there were two prime suspects at that moment (IIRC) and Glork was about to "Glork" someone. I choose the person I would rather see dead at that point: the one who advocated a quick hammer on my previous alignment card which I know to be town.[/quote]
I don't think this is true...

I'll go have a look.
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Post Post #1946 (ISO) » Sat Apr 07, 2007 1:13 am

Post by VitaminR »

bird1111 wrote:
Vote: Pooky
I did not like how he was willing to execute me extemely quickly, and the way he jumped on my bandwagon was vey suspicious.

Though currently I'm leaning towards MBL being town, though his scumdar is way off; as he hasn't acted much like a scum going for a easy lynch.
Here's why, that was bird. Same thing goes for the Yos vote quickly after.

Also dug out the LL thing:
bird1111 wrote:LuckayLuck, I'm not entirely sure why you find me suspicious; as far as I can tell its because you dissagree with much of my Post 535; and because I didn't like someone's inactivity (you put my name there, but that's obviously a mistake). Could you correct me where I'm mistaken/add anything I missed so I can defend myself properly against your accusations?
There was something about this that struck me as off. The friendly, helpful tone is what I would use towards someone like LL as scum. LL is quick to join someone's side and adopting that attitude towards him makes it easier to skew his perception.
VitaminR wrote:- complaining about "woe is me" votes
No idea what this means... I'll have to go back and find that.
This referred to Mert alleging that cbb was scummy for going "woe is me," which I think is easy justification for voting someone under attack.
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Post Post #1947 (ISO) » Sat Apr 07, 2007 1:15 am

Post by KaleiÐoscøpe »

You should've noted that was bird saying that... 'cause I can't explain birds actions, only those from myself -_-''
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Post Post #1948 (ISO) » Sat Apr 07, 2007 2:17 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Well, I tend to think Bird was probably pro-town, because one major scum tell that we caught Pooky with was the oppurtunistic jump onto the Bird wagon during the pages lost in the crash.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1949 (ISO) » Sat Apr 07, 2007 2:20 am

Post by RafK »

VitaminR wrote:I just found it strange how a number of people suddenly came out with Pooky votes very easily when Glork is pretty much alone in his suspicions Day 1.
Pooky lurked day 1 after a couple of initial posts, hence there wasn't much to attract attention. My reading of day 2 suggests that Pooky's day 1 lurking caught up with him, e.g. people realised that Pooky wasn't lurking due to absence or playstyle (he was active in other games) but due to staying the hell out of the way, plus the way he was acting on day 2 didn't help him.
All in all, I wouldn't want to clear him for being lost as a king, but I do think it is all the case against him is supported by. He hasn't really done anything significantly scummy.
I don't think DR did anything significantly scummy, given that his eventual absence was probably "complete absence from mafia" more than anything else. There's a case concerning the way Smashy went about the execution, but given the situation (coming in as a replacement and having to execute someone fairly quickly) I don't see it as the #1 case.



VR:
I hadn't replaced in yet when Pooky was executed, so I'm naturally a bit questioning of the rigour of any argument that specifically separates into "as Mert" and "as RafK" but then puts Mert stuff under me (FWIW, though, as said above, I don't think people voting Pooky on the whole are scummy- quite the reverse. I'm sure a couple of scum got in on the action, but to imply that people who voted Pooky easily are scum is just weird. It's like the people attacking Glork for executing Pooky on the suspicion of bussing... it's just paranoia. It's something to keep in mind if the person's behaviour is otherwise scummy, but it's not a first assumption).

As for the explanation for my CES vote, it's a continuation from yesterday's spat with Yos and CES. I feel he was scummy in how he pushed for a Phoebus lynch instead of waiting for Phoebus to be replaced (irony!) and for how he behaved subsequent.

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