Mini 425 Generic Western Mafia- Game over!

[gorckat]

DLMF: You have a 3 out of 11 chance of hitting scum and an 8 out of 11 hitting an innocent (assuming you are innocent). Having faith in a random vote runs counter to us trying to determine who the scum are by their actions and not by chance.

[Raffles]

Whilst gut feeling is perfectly acceptable (some players have great nose for who is a scum), random and gut are two different things.

Random - as name dictates, totally

random

. No influence from the game whatsoever, just a name out of a hat.

Gut - Based on how the game progressed, and what the subject has posted, you get the vibe that he is scummy.

You can't put the two together.

[DLMF]

The gut feeling stems from me thinking, "Will I regret it if I change my vote?"

When in doubt, stick with the original vote. So the original vote may have been random (occult=evil=scum???) but since it's my first, I'll have to stick with it. That's not to say thats how I'll be approaching this game hereafter.

And I'm not sure my vote for occult was entirely random even if it was not based on any evidence. It's more like betting on a horse because the jockey has on a favourable colour rather than looking at the horse's past records. (For the record, I've collected a fair bit using this method. Doesn't seem to work when I bet big though )

So no, the name didn't just pop out out of a hat so to speak.

[John]

Sorry, Vel-Rhan Koon, my bad.

DLMF, the gut vote thing doesn't cut it in my opinion. Not Page 5.

Vote: DLMF

This vote will probly cahnge fast, this vote was mostly to get your attention.

[Guardian]

What did I tell you about claiming and ousting the power roles?

FoS: Guardian

What I did in that post is explain how I wasn't at all saying anything significant about power roles, it was just me trying not to get killed, whether I be a power role or vanilla townie...

UnFos: Vryklan

That makes sense...it was in the random stages, after all

I still really want Vryklan to explain his statement, to me it still seems like he made a slip in the early stages - I don't think we should let him explain it away so easily.



I am getting two contradictory vibes that Raffles and Vryklan are scum... I don't see them as scumbuddies but this is possible... I am much more suspicious of Vryklan right now though.

[Peter Venkman]

it was just me trying not to get killed, whether I be a power role or vanilla townie...

...or scum.

Scrambling to cover one's self is usually a scum tell. A town player should be making deductions and accusations based on reasoning. The town player will know that his posts will than be revealed as honest town play, and other town players can use the dead player's reasoning as a safe base. Sometimes it is in the town's interest for other townies to die.

In conclusion, the only people worried about dying this early in the game would be scum, who have a smaller pool of players.

-Peter

[Guardian]

I just try not to get killed because when you die you can't play anymore and that's not fun -.-.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

NP John

In conclusion, the only people worried about dying this early in the game would be scum, who have a smaller pool of players.
-Peter

Or newbie players

Yeah, Guardian may have played before, but all I get from him at this point in time is eager newbie, not scum.


So far two people have answered for Vryklan concerning Gorckat's question in post 107. Vryklan, are you out there?

unvote, Vote:Vryklan

Raffles, I understand you and he are RL friends, but he needs to speak for his own actions. Besides, he hasn't posted in 2 days. Not a huge amount of time, but with the question that was asked by Gorckat, I think it's a bit fishy.

This puts Vryk at Lynch-3 with two FoS's

. Careful with the votes - we don't want a Lynch this early.

Gorckat you're also setting off my scumdar. First you were attacking Vryk for the post you commented about in 107, but you took someone else's word at face value about how he'd reply. Then you jump right in and start pointing fingers at DLMF for having a gut feeling? Honestly, I can see where DLMF would get this feeling: see post 87. That made me think "Oh look, scum". And, he hasn't posted since. I think DLMF's "gut feeling" is well justified. I will say that DLMF could have done a better job finding a post, such as this, that gave him that gut feeling. But that's what gut feelings are - you can't explain them you just know they're "right".

If Vryk comes back I may be switching my vote back to Occult. The first one was random, this one would be for looking scummy.

FoS: Occult

[gorckat]

@Vel: If DLMF was getting a vibe off that post, then fine- I just wanted him to say that. He didn't, and he used (I think) flawed numbers to try and show that a random vote was more likely to be successful. He also likened his vote to betting a horse because of the jockey's shirt color

I'm just skeptical of a gut vote with no analysis to back it up, even though we're early on, here. I've only played one completed game and have two others in progress (one at another site), but when I had a strong gut vote in one of them, I went back and looked at the posts and pointed out things that were inconclusive, but left me with my impression.

Its not too hard, after all, to "Display all posts by Occult Oldest First"

As for letting Vryk off the hook, I did very much buy Raffles' explanation because it made sense when presented as a real life friendship. Its how I've behaved at times- joke-logic amongst friends- so it sounded plausible.

But after having it pointed out by several people, I need to be just as skeptical of Vryklan and let him answer for himself.

[John]

How do you veiw posts like that?

[mustafa15]

At the bottom of the screen, right below the fast reply option it says, "Display posts from previous..." and you can change the second option it from All Users to whoever you want.

[John]

COOL!!! Thanx much!

[Sefer]

Third official vote count:

Vryklan (4): Avinyl, Guardian, mustafa15, Vel-Rahn Koon
Guardian (1): Vryklan
Occult (1): DLMF
John (1): Ichigo
Avinyl (1): gorckat
DLMF (1): John
Not voting: Peter Venkman, Raffles, Occult

12 alive, 7 to lynch.

[John]

I'm not seeing a good reason for Vryklan's 4 votes, would someone elaborate?

[DLMF]

Its not too hard, after all, to "Display all posts by Occult Oldest First"

What the?! I didn't notice that.

Okay, there's no meat at all in any of Occult's posts.

@ Vel-Rahn Koon: Nah, the gut feeling didn't come from looking at his posts. I just thought, Occult sounds fiendish, possible scum? I didn't vote Occult because of a gut feeling, rather, I stuck with the vote because of the gut feeling. The gut feeling I already explained. I could unvote but I'd like to see if Occult has anything to say. So far it's hard to pick up any scum vibes so yeah, I'm fishing.

@ gorckat: Yes, the numbers are flawed. The more games I play, the more my first votes will turn out to be vanilla townies. My reason stands though. I might not be as lucky here as I was before, but it's worth a try.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'm not seeing a good reason for Vryklan's 4 votes, would someone elaborate?

The first one is, I believe, a random vote from the beginning of the game. The others stem from Vryk not answering Gorckat's question in post 107 and then disappearing for 3 days (read: Lurking).

My vote is a pressure vote, and if his explanation to Gorc's question in 107 is answered to my satisfaction, I'll remove it.

The others I can't speak for, but if you read back, I think this will be the general trend for the other votes that you see.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

BTW, thanks for responding Gorc and DLMF

[mustafa15]

Vel-Rahn Koon pretty much summed up my reasons. I think he's lurking, and when he does say stuff, the things that he says are suspicious IMO.

I'm going to be pretty inactive until Tuesday, because I just found out that my family is visiting other family in Minnesota, and they have pretty bad internet. I might check in once on the weekend.

[Raffles]

Mod

: Prod Ichigo please.

A little more perticipation from Avinyl is also appreciated.

[Guardian]

I'm here but do not have much more to contribute at this time... I have some feelings about who might be mafia (other than those already explained) but at this time they are no more than feelings, and I don't particularly want to tip the mafia off to them...

Vryklan post, seriously, you're looking scummier each day.

[Raffles]

Vryklan's having log on problems.

[Occult]

FOS: Vry

I don't remember him posting that he was going to be gone for a few...... I'd like to vote for him but with him this close to getting lynched I'd like to see him post first.

[Raffles]

No, I'm talking to him right now, and he says he is having log on problems. It basically won't let him log in.

[Sefer]

Mod

: Prod Ichigo please.

I've sent a prod.
I've had problems logging in here at various points; mine have generally been solved by deleting the mafiascum cookie (either by going to tools->Internet Options to delete all cookies or by going to C:\documents and settings\\Cookies to delete any from mafiascum manually), closing my browser (to clear any session variables), and then starting the browser up again. This is only something that will work if he's entering correct login info but not being allowed in (not getting an error message indicating an incorrect username or password). See if that works for him.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Raffles/Sefer, any word on Vryk?