Mafia 60: Face-to-Face - Game over!

[Patrick]

Mgm's strategy yesterday if he is scum was pretty crude. But I still don't like anything that he posted on day 3 at all. I would have to read his other games to see how he acts as scum and town. The post I quoted felt rather forced, and it also came after a string of posts in quick succession where he had been defending CDB. Especially his post 117 where he quoted a post made by CDB where he mysteriously called his answers "townish" and said that this made him more suspicious of Thesp. The feeling I have is that he made these posts then decided he had maybe been too defensive of CDB, so left himself an opening to flip flop on that if necessary.

I think it's unlikely that CES and Mgm are scum together though, I think that really

would

be too blatant.

After preview:

I'm certain that Thesp is a GF because Fritz had an innocent on him and he is scum. I personally have no trouble reading it as a bussing attempts. He expressed suspicion of Channel often without providing much reasoning and he had little problem with voting for other people. I mean, he drew attention to Channel, but I don't hold him responsible for the Channellynch.

Interesting, because I saw him as a big force in the CDB lynch. I might just reread the whole game now, while I'm in the mood. I will add that I think Thesp did provide quite alot of reasoning for voting CDB, if not straight away.

[Glork]

What about the fact that Channel repeatedly expressed suspicions of Thesp, and never voted for anybody other than Thesp after the middle of Day One? Seems way more like crappy OMGUS than mutual distancing.


I've looked over CDB's posts a couple of times, and there are two posts that can give us lots of info:
Post 535
Post 765

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

Thesp: 1 (CES)
Zindaras: 1 (Patrick)
Cogito Ergo Sum: 1 (Glork)

Not voting: Zindaras Ether Nightfall MGM MBL Thesp

Looking for

5

votes for a lynch!

[Patrick]

Here is the funny thing about Ether though, which I think points towards her being town. (This assumes Thesp is town which I believe he is).

In her 14th post she says that she will likely hammer Thesp before deadline, not because she finds him especially scummy but because of the deadline. Fairly standard stuff, and I could see scum saying that to ease their way onto a Thesp hammer using an obvious excuse. Except... she never follows up on this. Why not if she is scum? She could get rid of a townie, and probably wouldn't pick up alot of flak for it. She did however pick up a fair amount of flak for not hammering. So basically I would have expected her to kill him at that point if she is scum (I would also expect the same if she happened to be scum with Thesp as I explained earlier, but I see that as very unlikely). I too would like Ether to give more clearcut opinions on everyone, because that last post was a little cryptic.

[MrBuddyLee]

Yesterday I read the thread in light of the aggression of the push on CDB, and in I found a lot of insincere wording of suspicions on his part. He was a very good lynch in light of a) his inherent scumminess and b) the fact that he'd yield info on several key players. But more importantly, based on Glork's behavior, I was convinced that he was the cop, and that he was doing a crappy job of disguising it. I tried to muddy the water to distract from what I thought were overly blatant hints on his part, in an attempt to cover his ass and maybe buy him an extra investigation. So that was my genius insight on CDB...

As backup cop, would Fritz have had investigations the nights Adele investigated? Or do you think his card implies he too was a full cop and got to investigate every night?

[Patrick]

My understanding is he was a full cop. On day 2 he was acting like he had an innocent on Thesp. I think there is a different card for a deputy.

[MrBuddyLee]

Patrick, I have a problem with your theory:

End of Day 2 Vote Count

Thesp: 6 (ChannelDelibird Cogito Ergo Sum Adele Mgm Glork Zindaras)
Ether: 3 (MrBuddyLee Nightfall Thesp)
Mgm: 1 (Patrick)
Adele: 1 (Fritzler)
Nightfall : 1 (Ether)

Not voting: Mr Stoofer

I reread Ether's posts surrounding the failure to Thesp-lynch and don't think her dithering looks guaranteed genuine. Your logic that she's not scum because she didn't hammer in a hammerable situation would imply that MBL, Nightfall, Thesp, Patrick, Ether are protown and the remaining scum are in {CES, MGM, Glork, Zindy}. I see Glork and MgM as significantly townish, which would narrow that list to {CES, Zindy} in my eyes. In light of your theory about Ether not hammering, can you please update your list of suspicions?
===============================================
I agree Thesp was probably Fritz's N1 target. I started rereading Thesp when Fritz's death came up, and have the following comments and questions. I don't think Thesp is on the table for today--view this as grist for later days if we don't hit a godfather.

Thesp suspecting MBL, Nightfall, Andrew, CDB early... weak scumpartner in the midst of a bunch of town is a possibility.

Bold play possibly shooting for an investigation.

Has a problem with my expression of multiple scumtheories.

Finds CDB “disconcerting”. Odd choice of words. And Zindy's posts “seem odd”.

Makes a point of agreeing with Glork about “a bunch of townies ripping each other apart”. If Thesp is scum this would be interpreted as a segue to lynching lurkers like CDB, Ether and Nightfall.

Good, nuanced questions to CDB in his 40th post that don't look insincere.

Lazy reply to MBL's question about his D1 suspicions. Revisionist history of D1 suspicion list: drops Nightfall, keeps MBL and CDB on list.

Pretty involved interaction with CDB twice in a week. Shows a detailed level of questioning CBD about a particular passage, not once but twice.

Differentiates his D1 behavior from CES's D2 citing “same fervor, different substance”. Does not bite on the invitation to go into detail on CES. But he did FOS CES a few posts earlier for an unrelated violation (“the old 1-2”).

His clearest call to lynch CDB:

ChannelDelibird is exhibiting the classic characteristics of scum silently pushing terrible wagons, showing up only when called on. This must stop, and lynching him is the way to do it.

Switches to Adele for practical (survival) reasons while reiterating CDB hate.

Defends Glork for “putting last nail in his coffin”, WIFOM too obvious to be busing? At the time, Glork+Thesp looked like a legit scumpair.

Takes offense at Glork's accusation that Thesp tried to hug Glork tightly on the way down.

States he'll be lynched by deadline * major faux pas. Innocent?

In response to MgM:

I think the people who didn't lynch me are pretty telling.

Thesp, can you please elaborate upon this statement?

Zeroes in on my godfather comments and pooh poohs them. (I'd also pegged him as a likely godfather the previous day).

Notes one comment of mine pressing CDB:

I echo MrBuddyLee's request for ChannelDelibird's input on various people.

But is also pretty much the only person not to express curiosity about my reasons for sudden shift on CDB.

I have used the “persistent push on one scumpartner” before to great effect. I think Thesp's overall behavior has been scummy, but his behavior specifically towards CDB seems like a genuine push on an unknown, not an attack on a scumpartner. I'd lean significantly town on Thesp at this point based on the nature of his attack on CDB, plus the likely investigation. CES's insta-vote on Thesp seems bizarre to me, and that's where my next reread is going.

CES, how does lynching a likely investigated innocent work out as the mathematical best choice today? Please enlighten us.

FOS: CES

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES, how does lynching a likely investigated innocent work out as the mathematical best choice today? Please enlighten us.

Simple. He's scum. Lynching scum is good.

[Zindaras]

Glork, I've had an all-around drop in activity.

Which I look forward to correcting.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You'd better!

[Thesp]

His Night 1 investigation is fairly obvious. An innocent on Thesp. So he's the Godfather. This is good to know. He doesn't really hint at a Night 2 investigation, although a guilty on Channel seems the most likely possibility.

Vote: Thesp

I cannot fathom that you actually think this is a likely possibility. I would love to hear other thoughts on who you think are scum.

FOS: Cogito Ergo Sum.

Unfortunately, I'm developing a nagging feeling that CDB might be scum and that someone's going to try to accuse me of being the GF and lynch me tomorrow if I fail to participate in his lynch. That doesn't do my paranoia or my heart any good. MBL and Glork seem to be all set to go for my jugular if I make a wrong decision today.

It just feels wrong. And after all that time defending CDB he looks like laying the groundwork for a 180 turn if he sees that CDB is going to be lynched. Possibly because he knows CDB will turn up scum so he wants to make sure he is seen to be part of the crowd that wanted him dead.

Agreed, though I don't think Mgm is worth lynching anytime soon.

He expressed suspicion of Channel often without providing much reasoning and he had little problem with voting for other people.

I think you're going to have a hard time arguing this when you look at the facts.

Here is the funny thing about Ether though, which I think points towards her being town. (This assumes Thesp is town which I believe he is).

In her 14th post she says that she will likely hammer Thesp before deadline, not because she finds him especially scummy but because of the deadline. Fairly standard stuff, and I could see scum saying that to ease their way onto a Thesp hammer using an obvious excuse. Except... she never follows up on this. Why not if she is scum? She could get rid of a townie, and probably wouldn't pick up alot of flak for it. She did however pick up a fair amount of flak for not hammering. So basically I would have expected her to kill him at that point if she is scum (I would also expect the same if she happened to be scum with Thesp as I explained earlier, but I see that as very unlikely).

QFT.

I reread Ether's posts surrounding the failure to Thesp-lynch and don't think her dithering looks guaranteed genuine. Your logic that she's not scum because she didn't hammer in a hammerable situation would imply that MBL, Nightfall, Thesp, Patrick, Ether are protown and the remaining scum are in {CES, MGM, Glork, Zindy}. I see Glork and MgM as significantly townish, which would narrow that list to {CES, Zindy} in my eyes.

There are timing issues that could have prevented someone else from doing a deadline hammer - Ether seemed to imply she would certainly be online. I do however think that people who had the opportunity to hammer and declined are more likely to be town. I also don't have a problem with your proposed scum list, for what it's worth.

In response to MgM:

I think the people who didn't lynch me are pretty telling.

Thesp, can you please elaborate upon this statement?

Similar to Patrick's theory on Ether, I think if scum had the opportunity to hammer me, they could have without taking much (if any) flak. I can conceive of townies having serious doubts about my lynch, and not contributing the hammer. I doubt much less that scum woul have passed on the opportunity under the guise of "We've gotta lynch somebody" (which was clearly rampant, see Mgm).

CES, how does lynching a likely investigated innocent work out as the mathematical best choice today? Please enlighten us.

QFT. (CES's answer noted as "unresponsive".)

[Patrick]

I think Thesp pretty much covered what I was going to reply to you MBL. Like him, I don't have any particular issue with your (Zindaras, CES) suggestion. It's certainly a possibility. As for Ether, her not hammering just stuck out the most to me, probably because she had made a post that looked like it was kind of preparing a hammer on him later. I don't think the pro town list you gave is bad either; I think Thesp is town, I think you are town, I know I'm town. Nightfall I want to read up on before too long, as I've not looked at him very closely this game. And Ether, well, I don't believe that lack of hammering guarantees anything, but it's a point in favour. There are still a few issues with Ether.

As for the theory that a godfather might try to deliberately pull investigations... I don't find it especially compelling. Possible, but I doubt that the first thought that goes through the mind of a godfather at the start of a game is, "Must pull an investigation at all costs". You're suggesting a GF would be trying to act scummy enough to pull an investigation, but not enough to get lynched, which would already be a fine balancing act to pull off. Add to that the possibility that this game might not have even contained any cops (too lazy to work out the probability of that now). It doesn't quite seem like the great strategy you make it out to be. I wouldn't get too caught up in it.

[Mgm]

I'm going to need to do a serious reread to get back my footing, but unless my read of Fritzler's investigation turn up something significantly different than what others have already said, I think I'll have to revise my ideas about Thesp.

If he is indeed investigated, he could only be godfather and I'm already looking into other candidates for that position. He's looking pretty townish at the moment.

[Mgm]

Oh, the other thing that *does* bother me about MGM was the whole "Thesp should have been lynched yesterday, so we need to lynch him today" thing. That just didn't make *ANY* sense to me. Mind explaining that one, MGM?

That's my basic stance on Nolynch. I believe nolynch is only a good thing in certain tactical situations and nolynches caused by people not following up on a promise are not one of those situations. See point 1 below too.

As for the theory that a godfather might try to deliberately pull investigations... I don't find it especially compelling.

I wonder how this meshes with the first line of this next quote.

I see Mgm as a serious possibility for being a godfather. He spent a while yesterday defending CDB by pushing hard against Thesp and making a big deal about the lack of lynch yesterday. I didn't like his post 1118 either, especially this:

Unfortunately, I'm developing a nagging feeling that CDB might be scum and that someone's going to try to accuse me of being the GF and lynch me tomorrow if I fail to participate in his lynch. That doesn't do my paranoia or my heart any good. MBL and Glork seem to be all set to go for my jugular if I make a wrong decision today.

It just feels wrong. And after all that time defending CDB he looks like laying the groundwork for a 180 turn if he sees that CDB is going to be lynched. Possibly because he knows CDB will turn up scum so he wants to make sure he is seen to be part of the crowd that wanted him dead.

1) A lack of a lynch is a big deal. It's the only chance for the town to take control and kill some scum (barring any active vigs). I believe I was wrong to want Thesp dead now. But I don't see how not lynching the #1 suspect of the day is a good thing. A no lynch can be a good strategy in some situations, but if someone who promises to lynch doesn't causing an accidental no lynch, that's bad. Pure and simple.
2) I said that quote because I was uncertain of CDB. You can believe that are you can not. It's funny though how you are trying to make it sound suspicious (not Glork or MBL as I thought) but the person who prevented me from proving that statement by hammering CDB before the day I said I would do it. Tell me, what exactly is the advantage for me, if I were a scumbucket, to protect CDB? Rather than saving his life, it was pretty much heading in the direction of killing us both. How is that a good strategy? I think I deserve a bit more credit than that.
3)"he wants to make sure he is seen to be part of the crowd that wanted him dead." I don't know how I would've managed that. I protected him all day. One vote isn't going to make people forget that.

You've been on about how I am suspicious while disregarding anything suspicious Thesp has done (before we even knew he might've been investigated). You're acting the same as CES is now. Disregard investigative results in favor of your favorite GF suspect.

Vote: Patrick

for the bad logic in this post and the continued efforts to lynch an investigative target. I think the way to catch GFs is by association, so it's imperative to get goons early on. You could conceivably hit a GF early on but that would have more to do with luck. Lynching investigative targets is likelier to kill the closest you have to confirmed innocents in the game.

MBL, now CDB is dead, please share the suspicious thing you saw in his post.

Suspect:
Patrick
Ether

Townish:
Thesp

Rest:
Cogito Ergo Sum
Glork
MrBuddyLee
Nightfall
Zindaras

[Patrick]

I wonder how this meshes with the first line of this next quote.

Well what? How am I supposed to have contradicted myself? I think you're scummy, but I don't think it's been part of a deliberate plan by you to pull investigations.

1) A lack of a lynch is a big deal. It's the only chance for the town to take control and kill some scum (barring any active vigs). I believe I was wrong to want Thesp dead now. But I don't see how not lynching the #1 suspect of the day is a good thing. A no lynch can be a good strategy in some situations, but if someone who promises to lynch doesn't causing an accidental no lynch, that's bad. Pure and simple.

Yes, isn't it gutting that we failed to lynch a likely townie. Damn. I've already explained why no lynching when it's an even number is hardly a disaster as compared to no lynching with an odd number. I'm not saying I entered the day thinking today no lynching would be great, but again, the downsides of it have been massively overblown by you. Notice how the extra time given to us by no lynching has lead us to instead lynch scum rather than a likely townie.

2) I said that quote because I was uncertain of CDB. You can believe that are you can not. It's funny though how you are trying to make it sound suspicious (not Glork or MBL as I thought) but the person who prevented me from proving that statement by hammering CDB before the day I said I would do it. Tell me, what exactly is the advantage for me, if I were a scumbucket, to protect CDB? Rather than saving his life, it was pretty much heading in the direction of killing us both. How is that a good strategy? I think I deserve a bit more credit than that.

Well no, you said you MIGHT hammer him very shortly before deadline. I decided not to take that chance. And as I said, I believe you defended him for a while and saw it going nowhere, so you set up a 180 turn for yourself by making that post.

3)"he wants to make sure he is seen to be part of the crowd that wanted him dead." I don't know how I would've managed that. I protected him all day. One vote isn't going to make people forget that.

Generally when I look back over scum lynches, and I see someone defending scum, then doing a quick turn near the end, I consider it a scumtell.

You've been on about how I am suspicious while disregarding anything suspicious Thesp has done (before we even knew he might've been investigated). You're acting the same as CES is now. Disregard investigative results in favor of your favorite GF suspect.

The first sentence is just an incorrect statement. Why say it? The second is also clearly wrong, I've been playing absolutely nothing like CES at any point in the game. I certainly haven't attacked you exclusively, I haven't just voted you saying "He's scum" and nothing else. Again, why say something so blatantly false? I find your play consistently leaving a bad taste in my mouth, why would I avoid saying that just because you have an innocent on you?

Vote: Patrick for the bad logic in this post and the continued efforts to lynch an investigative target. I think the way to catch GFs is by association, so it's imperative to get goons early on. You could conceivably hit a GF early on but that would have more to do with luck. Lynching investigative targets is likelier to kill the closest you have to confirmed innocents in the game.

I haven't used any bad logic so this comes down to "Vote: Patrick because he's been suspicious of me". Note that I haven't voted for you today to be lynched, unless you've recently changed your name to Zindaras.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You guys suck. It's rare enough for to actually catch scum and you go and ignore me.

Unvote

Now I have to re-read again and try and find that final scumbag.

[Mgm]

Well no, you said you MIGHT hammer him very shortly before deadline. I decided not to take that chance. And as I said, I believe you defended him for a while and saw it going nowhere, so you set up a 180 turn for yourself by making that post.

I also said I'd give plenty of notice if I decided not to do it. What was the hurry that you had to lynch the guy 2 days before the deadline? The 2 additional days could've yielded us lots more info.

Note that I haven't voted for you today to be lynched, unless you've recently changed your name to Zindaras.

No, instead you continue to call me suspicious in the hope others will lynch me while you're not on the wagon so you look innocent. You can't use not be voting me as an excuse. You're still trying to make me look bad and convince others I'm scum.

[Glork]

I have used the “persistent push on one scumpartner” before to great effect. I think Thesp's overall behavior has been scummy, but his behavior specifically towards CDB seems like a genuine push on an unknown, not an attack on a scumpartner. I'd lean significantly town on Thesp at this point based on the nature of his attack on CDB, plus the likely investigation. CES's insta-vote on Thesp seems bizarre to me, and that's where my next reread is going.

CES, how does lynching a likely investigated innocent work out as the mathematical best choice today? Please enlighten us.

FOS: CES

His Night 1 investigation is fairly obvious. An innocent on Thesp. So he's the Godfather. This is good to know. He doesn't really hint at a Night 2 investigation, although a guilty on Channel seems the most likely possibility.

Vote: Thesp

I cannot fathom that you actually think this is a likely possibility. I would love to hear other thoughts on who you think are scum.

FOS: Cogito Ergo Sum.

I

strongly

urge at least one of you to turn this FoS into a vote. For three days now, CES has skipped around, deliberately refusing to cooperate with anybody, wagoning relentlessly, and he's been passing it off as "playstyle." It reminds me of the way he played in Space Monkeys, and now he's choosing to go with a sub-optimal play using "he's scum" as his only explanation. He's made it pretty evident that he doesn't plan on working with any of us to actually find scum, and he's obstinately doing whatever he wants. I can see two possible explanations for this:
1) He's a scumbag who has realized that his claims/theories aren't worth shit, and he's stalling for time to figure out an explanation (or to hope that we get distracted and look elsewhere)
2) He's a townie, but he's playing the most idiotic game of his life because he's too stubborn to play along with anybody else
I'm obviously leaning

heavily

towards 1), but I won't know for sure unless CES actually

speaks up and tells us

what

he's thinking about everybody and

WHY

he's thinking it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, you know I haven't used any sort of "playstyle" defense. Yes, I wagon early on. This game is in that aspect much like Space Monkeys. The difference is that this time I've changed gears. All I did in Space Monkey was wagon and get quicklynched.

I gave reasons for Channel-Thesp in my last couple of posts, dude. Are you paying attention?

[Glork]

Unvote, Vote: Ether

I just thought of something and suddenly have very cold feet about CES.

[Glork]

I will point out, though, CES, that Thesp has his vote on CDB all during D2 until it was blindingly obvious that CDB was not going to be lynched, and he had his vote on CDB all throughout Day 3. I don't like the "he had no problem moving his vote elsewhere" comment. I think that he was very reluctant to move from CDB until he absolutely knew that nobody was going to follow suit. He even said, both when he went from CDB to Adele and from Adele to Ether that he wanted CDB dead more but couldn't drum up enough support despite his best efforts. To claim that Thesp was distancing from CDB is to insinuate that Thesp went after CDB relentlessly under the assumption/prediction that he would not be listened to. Not to knock CDB personally, but he doesn't make a terribly good scumbag in my experience, so I don't find that assumption/prediction particularly plausable.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Glrok, you are confusing.

[Glork]

Basically, CES, my meta is telling me that even though I think you're a complete idiot, I'm no longer completely convinced that you're still scum. I still want you to answer my questions and I'm still going to pressure you, but I don't want to overextend myself on this one.

[Patrick]

I also said I'd give plenty of notice if I decided not to do it. What was the hurry that you had to lynch the guy 2 days before the deadline? The 2 additional days could've yielded us lots more info.

I disagree that we were going to get a bucketload more info from those two extra days.

No, instead you continue to call me suspicious in the hope others will lynch me while you're not on the wagon so you look innocent. You can't use not be voting me as an excuse. You're still trying to make me look bad and convince others I'm scum.

To be clearer then, I do not think you are the play today. If I thought you were, I would have voted you and not Zindaras. I pointed out a post by you that felt off. I stand by that assessment. As I said before, I'm not going to keep quiet about posts that bother me just because you can't be a mafia goon.

[Nightfall]

MOD

- In theory, if we did have a deputy who became a cop and then was either nightkilled or lynched, would his card upon death be that of a cop? or of a deputy?

Vote: CES

how can you think that a lynch an "investigated innocent". Why jump right to the Godfather theory?