NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

i think you could have included the next 5 words to that quote

[Prophylaxis]

GENERIC INTERACTION ANALYSIS

| denotes responding to a quote or a question, or a vote.
- denotes a passive mention.

Multiple occurrences in the same post are redundant. If a post contains both | and - for the same player, only | is mentioned.

Some | may be demoted to - and vice versa depending on importance.

Code: Select all

geist: ||||||||||||||||||--------
Casso: ||||||||||||||||||-----------
Msmrg: ||||||||||||||---------
F16FF: |||||||||||||||---
Proph: |||||||||||||||---------
pigyn: |||||||||||------
Norlk: ||--
Korea: |||||||||||-------
gdmrn: ||||||-
Sakur: |||||||||||--
SerAD: |||||||---
zMufn: -
Titus: |||||||||||||||||||||||--------

MafiaSSK

: |||||--- (for context)

Breaking this down:

F-16 has been upgraded to a townie read. My initial read on him was pretty weak - basically a self conscious response to "Are you town?", IIRC. I liked the effort he was putting into his posts, and Generic tried to buddy up with F-16 in the early game.

If you want a good sheeting bet f16 is the most town so far but his town piling is at a snails pace right now.

My gut *wants* to say Casso is town - the MafiaSSK interactions with "Why is this wagon forming on X" looked pretty good, but one thing I noticed with Generic is that he kept SSK as his personal punching bag - constant voting and unvoting, though he didn't have too many interactions with Generic (most of those |s were Generic hopping on him). I noticed that Generic constantly voted and unvoted Casso as well, so that gives me some pause. The number of interactions there makes me think that he's probably.. town? I don't think he's going to be lynched toDay or for any other Days to come, so my gut wants me to sort him out to "weak town" and move on from there.

Generic had a spat with pieguyn during my latter skim of his ISO, and accused him of CFTWR, IIRC. I had some tabs queued up with potential interactions to look at, but I closed them accidentally and too lazy to hunt them down. Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused.

Generic has little interactions with Norlkaz - want to look there, too. Norlkaz is pretty much the epitome of null this game - can't get much from Llamarble's strange posting style.

Sakura Hana had some Generic interactions scattered around, but again, my gut wants me to clear her based on SSK's comment. I don't really remember much - I'm slotting her as the same spot as Casso.

Ser Arthur Dayne is.. ugh. I really wish I read the thread, when talking to him. He's pulled off several scumtells but something earlier felt like righteous indignation - hard to fake. Going to fencesit here, now. He had some scattershot Generic interactions but again, I forgot about those ones too.

Generic basically had no interaction with zMuffin, and due to that he's become my strongest scumread. None with SSK, either.

Cephrir had the most interactions with Generic (they had a spat somewhere between Day 2) and that gives me pause regarding Titus. Ultimately, I'd like Titus to be lynched at some point because I need her flip to help me figure out the game, and

she's not doing flat-out anything

. Additionally, I don't think I can read her too well and like Ms Marangal said, the reason why I want her to be lynched is a mix between policy and scumread.

Is there any reason why zMuffinMan isn't being pressured? Like, SAD mentioned "Generic has no interactions with zMuffinMan" and no one really followed up on it.

To clarify for the mod -

unvote, vote zMuffinMan

If a Titus wagon re-forms, I'm also willing to revote her to figure out the game state, but that's a ton of interactions with Cephrir.
-----

Everytime I see your "votal analysis," I feel an irresistible urge to insult you. I am really a bad person, lol.

Ugh, how do I explain my analysis methods.

One of the things I like to do in games is to look for lynches that I have a cluster of town reads/people that flipped town on.

If I see mostly town on a lynch, and that lynch has stalled out, chances are pretty good that the person wagoned is scum - because why wouldn't scum want to help want to run them up?

It's the same type of logic I use when analyzing, say, a TOWN TOWN UNKNOWN TOWN TOWN wagon. If the person being wagonned is probably town, and I have a unknown read in the middle of a cluster of town reads, I want that person shot. Scum will be on town lynches to accelerate the mislynch, and scum will usually be on the back end of scum lynches.

The more town that flip, and the more town reads that are obtained, the more useful looking at earlier game voting wagons is - because over the course of the game, voting is the hardest thing to fake.

Words are the easiest thing to fake.

I don't mind mislynching the occasional player when the argument against it is "it might be 6+ town in a row one out of 250 wagons!!1!" because that is rare.

And if you guys (Titus, zMuffin, F-16) want to continue to dismiss is as being 'naive', then be my guest - it's simply how I play, and it's another tool in the toolbox along with interaction and behavioral analysis.

[zMuffinMan]

generic's lack of interaction with me is most likely due to me being mostly a non-factor - probably the same reason he didn't interact with norlkaz much, either

if you're actually pushing this as a reason to think i'm scum, then fucking lol

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

I can probably dig a muffin wagon.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

if you're actually pushing this as a reason to think i'm scum, then fucking lol

See like this feels fake and ooc.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Compare:

Muffin can start raking up some scumpoints for his recent posts.

cool. why?

also why geists scum and why casso town?

Also do you usually take suspicion on you this lightly/calmly, or are you trying to materialize this air of coolness around you by brushing off suspicion on you in an attempt to look town?

i'm a really cool guy. and your read progression on me makes me smile a bit

with

if you're actually pushing this as a reason to think i'm scum, then fucking lol

[Prophylaxis]

If you have me as a scumread, SAD, then do you think I'm bussing zMuffin?

[zMuffinMan]

proph

do you usually hunt (or can you show me where you've previously hunted) for scum based solely on the

number

of "interactions" with flipped scum? also, i gather you have experience with generic - is the idea that generic would have fewer interactions with his buddies based on meta or is it purely an assertion?

See like this feels fake and ooc

did you actually read proph's post?

coz he's literally suggesting people are town/scum based purely on the number of interactions. like, read it.

[zMuffinMan]

side note,

Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused

this looks like scum trying to set up a back door into later changing his read on pieguy and doesn't look like a genuine thought process. "i'm reading pie as town, but since some others are calling him scum, i could be wrong"

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

If you have me as a scumread, SAD, then do you think I'm bussing zMuffin?

Hmm? You should know by now I do reads independent of each other, because people always fall into the predicting-scum-based-on-scumreads that haven't actually flipped which is stupid. For a good example see Pieguy in this game.

[geists]

Still waiting to do my mason test whenever we're all 3 in the thread at once.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

See like this feels fake and ooc

did you actually read proph's post?

All of it?

Seriously? You should know me by now

coz he's literally suggesting people are town/scum based purely on the number of interactions. like, read it.

Well I read the part about you and your response look like "I will belittle your accusation quickly and assertively" more than "lolol thats a terrible accusation".

Idk something about the wording of it, and the fact that a defensive statement (your first line) was your first reaction rather than "SERIOUSLY? LOL", and the latter looks like it was inserted to belittle, rather than be your primary reaction.

Uhh, imo?

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

How the hell does the emote : x equal wtf >_>

[F-16_Fighting_Falcon]

Proph, the main issue for me with the votal analysis is that it relies WAY too much on conventions. For instance, that scum vote late on the scum wagons. What would you do if a player just votes erratically like Bert, or is at the tail end of most wagons (like ffery), or are in general just slow to vote/wagon (like me)? If you look at votes in isolation, it tells you very little unless the entire game has a very old-school, conventional style of play. You assume scum don't vote in blocs. I've seen players like Cabd specifically tell the scumteam to vote in blocs although I am not sure which game. You are using POE on wagons. I don't feel it is any better than just using POE for the entire game. When you are analyzing wagons like TOWN TOWN UNKNOWN TOWN TOWN, you have already developed those town reads. You could be wrong about those town reads which could mean that you are wrong about the unknown read as well. That works just like standard POE. I don't see the point of putting it from a "wagon perspective." I disagree with words being easy to fake whereas votes are not. Anyone can vote but to write persuasive arguments takes considerable skill. Your voting analysis also doesn't take into account the undercurrents of the game, i.e. which direction a lynch is likely to go, who is looking to compromise on whom - those things may influence further votes. My main issue is that you expect players to act in too conventional a way for your vote analysis to be useful.

[Prophylaxis]

proph

do you usually hunt (or can you show me where you've previously hunted) for scum based solely on the

number

of "interactions" with flipped scum? also, i gather you have experience with generic - is the idea that generic would have fewer interactions with his buddies based on meta or is it purely an assertion?

See like this feels fake and ooc

did you actually read proph's post?

coz he's literally suggesting people are town/scum based purely on the number of interactions. like, read it.

I mean I can pull up a game where I did this recently:



For context, Lucky, Fonti, and BillD were the scum team. Fonti had no interactions with the flipped scum, and BillD had only casual mentions. Lucky shot particularly high because the flipped scum was bussing him.

I Ctrl-F'd an ISO of Generic in a MTGS game (Majora's Mask) and he did not interact with his scumbuddies that much.

I'm scumreading you because the

scumteam did not interact with you at all

. I Ctrl-F'd "zm" when reading SSK's ISO and I only got a nested quote from you. Same with Generic, IIRC. Scum that go out of their way to avoid interacting with each other are probably scum with no confidence in their acting ability.

It's really just basic interaction analysis.

side note,

Want to take some time rereading this slot - I cleared him as town early, and some people are saying he's scum and I'm pretty confused

this looks like scum trying to set up a back door into later changing his read on pieguy and doesn't look like a genuine thought process. "i'm reading pie as town, but since some others are calling him scum, i could be wrong"

Uh, if my townread on someone is solely based on the minuscule chunk of game that I've read and people are calling him scum now, I'm confused!

Now I know that something went on in the middle of the thread that I did not read that caused people to change their view of pieguyn, and I can go look at that.

If you have me as a scumread, SAD, then do you think I'm bussing zMuffin?

Hmm? You should know by now I do reads independent of each other, because people always fall into the predicting-scum-based-on-scumreads that haven't actually flipped which is stupid. For a good example see Pieguy in this game.

Fair enough, I guess.

[goodmorning]

Checking in, but going to bed again.

[Ms Marangal]

HOLY SHIT I AM HERE

[geists]

Are you both still here?

Because I have 2 sweet questions that will need answers within 5 minutes or I'll declare the test null and void.

[zMuffinMan]

@sad

the first line was me going, "you cannot seriously believe this has anything to do with anything other than activity," and the second line was a continuation of this

I'm scumreading you because the scumteam did not interact with you at all

OK. this is an indefensible statement. what now?

you're not taking into account several factors that affect interactions (like activity, playstyle, familiarity with other players, gamestate, etc)

conveniently, pushing this angle means you don't have to assess my posts and find real reasons to think i'm scum

[goodmorning]

I'm here if Mara still is.

[Ms Marangal]

YES I AM

[Ms Marangal]

I'll be here allll night

[Ms Marangal]

FFERY HURRY UP WITH THE QUESTION

[geists]

Goodmorning, in our first game together, a word you posted a few times sparked a statistical analysis of that word's frequency in all your prior games.

Mara, what was the word?

5 minutes. Go!

[Ms Marangal]

I think she died :/