NY 168: (GAME OVER) The Mod is Dead, Fire and Ice Edition

[Garmr]

Just had a thought but couldn't ice scum just cross fired with fire scum? Then again same rules apply only ice would know.

[JacobSavage]

Votecount 4.3

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aptil [2]

- Toomai, RachMarie

Toomai [2]

- Desperado, T S O

RachMarie [1]

- PeregrineV, Slandaar

Desperado [1]

- Bulbazak

Not Voting [4]

- NJAC, aptil, penguin_alien, Garmr

With 11 alive, it takes

6[/i]

votes to lynch.

Deadline falls on 7^th Febuary 2014 (expired on 2014-02-07 21:00:00)

V/LA

NJAC til 6/2

[Slandaar]

Just had a thought but couldn't ice scum just cross fired with fire scum? Then again same rules apply only ice would know.

Kill flavor suggests not.

Didn't you wonder why Bulb was calling the kill fire?

[Slandaar]

(I think Garmr just slipped)

[T S O]

What would be the scum motivation for posting that?

[Desperado]

Simple logic. The simple fact of assuming Toomai is a scum doc and not a town one must lead you to believe 2 things: 1.) He is Fire scum, since they actually delivered a kill. 2.) He is lying about his target. Why is that a natural conclusion? Because both teams are down to only 2 members each. If Toomai was a fire scum doctor, it would be suicide to claim his actual target, since if he dies, town would easily finish off his team. It is not in his best interest to do so, and claiming a false target introduces WIFOM and has the possibility of maybe getting a mislynch in, while simultaneously protecting his partner. It also has the advantage of buddying up to whoever he claims to have protected, since odds are high that they wouldn't want to kill him.

Ergo, if you are claiming that Toomai is a scum doctor, you are also asserting that he is lying about his target, and in that case, there are only 2 people who would know that for sure: The Ice team.

I don't need inside information to know that scum lie. This is weak as fuck, bro.

[Bulbazak]

Claiming an alternate near enough outs Firescum to Icescum (Toomai has outed himself and his partner to them) which is not good for Firescum's chances to win.

If Toomai is fire scum, Ice scum already know who he actually protected.

Not really, claiming any target produces some form of WIFOM, but, if you believe he would never claim his legit target then there is no WIFOM.

It would still be WIFOM from the town's PoV, since they wouldn't know for sure whether Toomai lied about his target or not. Just because I think that lying is the optimal move does not mean that everyone else will think so.

Ergo, if you are claiming that Toomai is a scum doctor, you are also asserting that he is lying about his target, and in that case, there are only 2 people who would know that for sure: The Ice team.

Fire team also would know. Potentially PR's would also.

I didn't include fire team for obvious reasons. I didn't consider PRs.

I assume you think Toomai is scum?

I'm not sure. I acknowledge the possibility, but I need to reevaluate my understanding of the game and see what is likely. I don't think he should be lynch today, though.

I don't need inside information to know that scum lie. This is weak as fuck, bro.

You are sure about Toomai being a scum doctor at a level that is suggestive of inside information. I could see town being paranoid and suggesting it as a possibility, but they would unvote on the off-chance that Toomai might be a town doc. You're pushing him being a scum doc as an absolute certainty, and I can't see that coming from town.

[Slandaar]

What would be the scum motivation for posting that?

It's not about motivation; not everything is, he is posting as though he knows fire made the kill, but, how does he know? it appears not from flavour.

[Desperado]

You are sure about Toomai being a scum doctor at a level that is suggestive of inside information. I could see town being paranoid and suggesting it as a possibility, but they would unvote on the off-chance that Toomai might be a town doc. You're pushing him being a scum doc as an absolute certainty, and I can't see that coming from town.

No, I am sure that he's scum. He might be a scum doc or he might be fakeclaiming. Maybe he was just trying to draw a CC. This post:

@ Mod: I'm voting Toomai, not Aptil

Why is everyone pretending like claiming doc makes Toomai town? NY 167 and 164 both included scum doctors and Jacob was in 167.

Is doing exactly what you've described, without the unvote part...because I still think Toomai is scum regardless of his claim.

[Bulbazak]

Let's see... There was only 1 kill last night, and we had a nurse in the setup. I'm going to say there's a doctor. Now it can be understandable, if town, to be paranoid, but you do not try to kill a claimed PR, especially the claimed protective role. You, however, are still strongly pushing for the lynch, which suggests scum, perhaps with knowledge that he shouldn't possibly have as town.

[Slandaar]

If Toomai is fire scum, Ice scum already know who he actually protected.

Yes, so if he told the truth as scum then Ice scum wouldn't know his and by extension your alignment (you would be scum in the scenario he told the truth as scum). If he lies; they know both remaining members of Fire scum. The difference between the scenarios is pretty clear the first is better for fires chances to win.

It would still be WIFOM from the town's PoV, since they wouldn't know for sure whether Toomai lied about his target or not. Just because I think that lying is the optimal move does not mean that everyone else will think so.

Yes, so, then if he claims his legit target then he has also created WIFOM from towns POV so there is no difference in the scenarios. If he lies and gets lynched icescum know his buddy, if he tells the truth and gets lynched icescum know his buddy nothing changes from towns POV.

I didn't include fire team for obvious reasons. I didn't consider PRs.

Firescum might show skepticism towards the claim also due to knowing.

I'm not sure. I acknowledge the possibility, but I need to reevaluate my understanding of the game and see what is likely. I don't think he should be lynch today, though.

Well your case doesn't mean anything if Toomai is town and he is.

[Desperado]

Are we already to the "repeat things we've already said" part of this conversation?

[Bulbazak]

@Slandaar: Do you believe Toomai is town?

[Slandaar]

Yes?

Well your case doesn't mean anything if Toomai is town and he is.

[T S O]

Despy, there's only one way I could believe this is coming from Town-you, and you don't want to put it out there.

Is that what you're talking about?

[Desperado]

I have no idea what that's in reference to.

[Bulbazak]

Slandaar, what do you think of Desperado's push?

[penguin_alien]

While noting that you didn't ask me, I think it's lousy.

VOTE: Desperado

[Slandaar]

Bad; in relation to alignment? more likely town its not a clever argument to make as scum.

[penguin_alien]

Well, we're down to 11. Non-overlapping kills takes us to eight and then five. Four scum left. Depending on who exactly the scum are and how well they've avoided scrutiny, going for broke in trying to get the doctor lynched might not be the worst play. If scum manage not to overlap and not to kill one another, we need to lynch perfectly from here on out. Lynching scum at 11, 8, 5, takes us to 3p LyLo.

I wouldn't be surprised if this set-up had a decent amount in common with the Open Fire and Ice set-up, in which case it makes sense that scum gets an extra person on each team, compensated by a back-up doc and two one-shot investigations on town's side.

Slandaar, yes, it's a bad argument, but on the flip side, what's the town logic behind it? Especially after 1014 and 1015?

[Slandaar]

Like it would help me? If I had something super important, I would say it, but I don't. Since you insist, though, VT.

Rach, did you not find this quite town?

[Slandaar]

Slandaar, yes, it's a bad argument, but on the flip side, what's the town logic behind it? Especially after 1014 and 1015?

The town logic is simple; Desp thinks Toomai is scum.

IF Toomai is scum; Desp chance of scum would be higher, but, assuming Toomai is town means Desp is just making a case on someone he thinks is scum with no extra info. (extra info means both are scum). I don't see a reason for Despscum to be more likely to make the case that Desptown with no extra info.

What does 1014 and 1015 have to do with anything?

[penguin_alien]

Toomai hasn't been counterclaimed with two-three days left, and the cited posts were the logical place for Desperado to do so if that's what was going on. I don't see how we would have had a town nurse positioned to inherit a scum doctor role, given that that's an extra punishment for scum losing a PR, to have it fall into town hands. Desperado is a rational player, and his continuing to push this just doesn't make sense.

[T S O]

penguin_alien's talking sense.

[Desperado]

Again: I think Toomai is scum. I think he may or may not be a doctor. I have seen scum do both and at this stage of the game I am trusting my read over their claim.