Mafia v. Wolves Redux: Finally Over!

[remussaidow]

honestly, I think that OTU isn't lynched yet because his scum group doesn't want to bus him, and the other group doesn't have two people not voting for him.

[Raffles]

^That's something rather important to note for later on...

[Phoebus]

Vote count:

1 Battle Mage (~N9V~)
1 Kison (Akbar)

9 OverTheUnder (Battle Mage, DrippingGoofball, Fuldu, Kison, Mastermind of Sin, Mr Flay, PBuG, remussaidow, Raffles)

1 PBuG (OverTheUnder)
1 Raffles (Scarecrow)

8 not voting

11 to lynch

[XReyoX]

I've re-read the game for three times now but I still can't draw a conclusion on whether OTU is a scum. I want to ask people, especially those who are voting OTU, some questions.

1. Was his vote really opportunistic that no town would ever do it? I was thinking that it might just be a light-hearted vote. we were barely out of the random voting stage at that time. People were just bandwagoning me just for fun. That what I think.

2. The difference between him being a scum and a town is that he would be more resistant to the lynch if he's a scum ( no votes from scumbuddies). So if he's a town, would be be dead by now because the scums could have jumped on.

3. How likely is he a scum? Extremely (>90%), very likely (>70%) ?

I want to hear a confirmation from DrippingGoofball. Everyone else who are on OTU have given their reasons. DGb jumped on every early on in the wagon just for the sake of wagoning. He hasn't actually posted his thoughts on OTU.

[Raffles]

1. I've re-read his posts, but I can't really extract any useful contribution to the town from him, despite the number of posts he may have made more than most. (Other than that each player analysis) Maybe he is lazy, maybe he is a scum. I do believe it was an opportunistic vote though.

2. That point to me is sort of null. The way I see it, the best way to play a scum is to forget that you are one completely during the day, and go on scum-hunting as you would in any other day. This is a good play because
a) Towns can't analize your interaction with your scum buddies.
b) You'd appear as how you would in any other game, which is like a townie if you are good.

So if I'm a scum and see my scum buddy putting up a scummy play then I would quite happily lynch him. But I guess this may differ from scum to scum.

3. I would say much more likely than others, maybe a nudge below 70.

[XReyoX]

@raffles: i just think that the vote was too opportunistic to be placed by a scum. In general, i think scums would analysis their posts more before posting them. It's true that OTU's posts aren't that useful to the town, but neither do the people who never post. As people who have point out that a scum could have voted at anytime along the wagon, he could have wait till there are some good reasons to join on it rather than using "reyo is a nuisance and is confusing the town".

Comparing my wagon to his atm. Saying his vote is opportunistic would be a safer wagon to join without drawing attention surely.

[Raffles]

You are throwing a WIFOM/too townie argument there mate.

"He is playing too scummy, scum would know better than to do that. He must be a townie"

It just doesn't make sense.

As for your second point, note that wagon for OTU didn't appear until after your wagon. And you did have over 1/2 of the votes needed for lynch...

[XReyoX]

1. Yup, it's what I'm thinking about. If I'm a scum, I would have no chance of placing a vote like him. Or would you?

2. I didn't say he's a town because of this. It's just i dun think he will stand out much more than anyone else for being scum ( just a little bit, for the possibility that he is a noob scum)

3. About the wagon. If he is a scum and he knows that none of his scummates were on my wagon, even if everyone votes on me at that time, i would still be at L-3. a distance away from being lynch. What I want to bring out is that more scums are on his wagon now than mine.

[Raffles]

But OTU is not

you

. Maybe he didn't spot that it might look scummy. I personally thought someone scummy might start crawling out at that point, where I thought to lay a trap. If I thought it was blatantly obvious and scum would never approach it that way, I wouldn't have done it in the first place.

Why wouldn't he place a vote on your wagon just because his scum mates placed a vote on yours? I admit, any scum would be a bit hesitant, if all his scum buddies placed a vote on you, but I can't see any problem being a second one.

[remussaidow]

Scum need to be involved to be most effective. (Check)
If they're good scum, they'll act ENTIRELY like a townie (check)
but they still won't be very town oriented. He was oppurtunistic, and hasn't been incredibly helpful to town.

[XReyoX]

@raffles: If some of his scummates are already on me, his vote won't get the wagon much further at L-6. Not that it couldn't have happened, but just less likely.

[XReyoX]

and btw, while the best scumplay would be to act exactly like a town, I think that go scum hunting 24/7 and setting up zillions of traps and plans aren't best play for the scum. Unless the scums thinks that they are far more superior than you or when there is a power role revealed, you are more likely to be NK before day3, because you would be a bigger threat than other towns ( while barely equal chance of having a power role). Therefore, a big threat to the scum who doesn't die after a few days would means a higher chance of being a scum.

[Raffles]

Or the scum could pick someone completely at random, to prevent from having their kills analyzed? They could try and kill someone who they suspect might be a cop? Scum don't generally tend to kill a big townie, because they have a good chance of getting doc protection (esp. if the town just lynched a scum). There are whole variety of reasons why scum would kill someone. Not just because they are experienced.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm still here, sorry. Been busy with spring break. In my quick reread, it doesn't look like OTU has done anything to convince us that he's not scum. Vote stays.

[theopor_COD]

Read the thread several times, not a great deal stands out, just reviewing people in particular.

Slightly alarmed with the Reyo/Raffles possible chats away from the thread, although I've got both pretty much in a townie camp, they both seem to be agressively hunting scum and pushing people around and Raffles gives me a very pro town vibe.

BM fishing post 260 is scummy, but I can never tell much with BM

OTU - Placed a bandwagon vote and has seen plenty of votes since, not really convinced if he's scum or not, his defence hasn't been full of tremors by that he doesn't seem to be shaking like a leaf with -2 votes on him.
I'd actually be more worried about some of the people voting for him.

The one person I'd prefer to vote for at the moment is Remussaidow. His constant random voting isn't helpful. He calls out OTU, Kison and Reyo as acting the scummiest but fails to add a reason. He then has a veiled attack at Raffles over Raffles lightweight plan to catch scum, throwing an FOS at him, posts a couple of irrelevant posts just in my eyes to appear active, before throwing his vote behind OTU despite finding Al4 scummy and throwing an FOS at him, the vote to me lacks weight and he doesn't look to find a reason for OTU possibly being town, by that he's not weighing up both sides of the argument. He then goes on and posts some waffle mainly at Wizardcat and BM before finally re-asserting the fact he finds OTU the scummiest, without offering a reason, also offers a reason for two more scum to hop on board. His last post pretty much sums him up in my eyes, infact for all three statements they could all apply to Remus

Scum need to be involved to be most effective. (Check)
If they're good scum, they'll act ENTIRELY like a townie (check)
but they still won't be very town oriented. He was oppurtunistic, and hasn't been incredibly helpful to town.

1 - yep Remus has been involved, much more so than 50% of the players.
2 - OTU has him firmly in the pro town camp, so he's effectively acting as a townie.
3 - I can't see him being entirely helpful, his vote on OTU as far I can see is opportunisitc.

Anyway I need to review a load more people but so far think Reyo, Raffles are town, OTU 50/50, Remus leaning towards scum. I'll try and post more after a meeting, what fun.

vote remussaidow

[remussaidow]

when did I attack raffles (seriously, I don't think I did, but I may have.

I just went back and looked, I clearly stated that I thought OTU is clearly the scummiest player, but that Al4x isn't looking great eitehr.

Your current argument is like me asking you why you aren't voting OTU, you think that he's scummish (at 50%) too.

[XReyoX]

his defence hasn't been full of tremors by that he doesn't seem to be shaking like a leaf with -2 votes on him.

Surely this makes OTU more likely a scum. We could be at a situation where two or more of his scumates are not voting for him. This leaves around 5-6 people who aren't voting be his only threat, assuming that his scumates aren't voting for anyone else atm. Judging that most of the people who hasn't vote are not even active, the chance of him being lynch is greatly reduced.

[theopor_COD]

Middle of Page 6.

As far as you make reference to OTU all I see is speculation and pretty much opportunism, you haven't yet pointed out a valid reason to vote for him, just say he's scummy - have copied all the times you've referred to OTU so far below.
Your posts in bold, my thoughts in Italic.

Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:10 pm Post subject: 7
Otu, Kison, and Reyo looks the most suspicious to me, but no one stands out as needing an additional vote... yet

First suspicion off OTU you include him in a group

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:03 am Post subject: 11
Raffles, Kison, OtU, and reyo all seem to just be convienent targets right now. One of them is probably scum, yes, but theres no way to tell right now.

Second suspicion, still no real reason for voting him again use his name in a group

Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 8:56 pm Post subject: 20
No one really looks particularly scummy yet. I also do not think that either of the wagons are close enough to being a lynch to draw any serious reactions yet.
That being said, I'm going to vote: OtU because I think that he is the slightly scummier of the two candidates. this vote is very likely to come off though.

Note here you find no one particularly scummy and vote OTU because he looks sligtly scummier hardly a reason, more opportunistic wouldn't you say, adding that the vote may come off, still seems a flimsy vote to me, not a hardcore suspicion

Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2007 1:32 pm Post subject: 30
I still think OTU is the scummiest, as nothing has swayed my opinions yet with any of the nearly non existant new evidence.

Not interested in looking for an alternative candidate, again you haven't offered a valid reason for your vote

Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 11:10 am Post subject: 31
honestly, I think that OTU isn't lynched yet because his scum group doesn't want to bus him, and the other group doesn't have two people not voting for him.

Still no reason

Yes you made the point about Al4xz but failed to press him aggressively.

I'm not voting OTU because at the minute I think your more likely to be scum.

[XReyoX]

Very convincing argument. I'll do look into it tonight. Got a terrible headache atm >_<

[TBuG]

I really like that argument.

Unvote, vote: remus

My scumdar has been twinging from him, and that makes sense.

[XReyoX]

Bad vibes from PBuG. He said "OTU's post is hideously flamingly scummy." when voting for OTU. He said "You're already obvious scum" when he voted for me. Yet he is changing votes so easily( from OTU to remus). He said he would do a detailed post of why he thinks me and raffles are scum but it never appeared. He didn't state which part he is agreeing with theopor_COD. The post theopor_COD made did not provide evidence which say OTU is not a scum, but rather saying that Remus is more likely to be scum than OTU. The words PBuG use in his post sounds like he is very confident that the people he's voting for are scums, but only provide little agrument except quoting people's posts or comments which are no longer than 1 line.

[Raffles]

^You should really try holding onto these things until we get further evidence.

[XReyoX]

I don't really see a point in holding these much further. It could be a way PBuG trying to minimize people's interaction with him by just posting only little content. But it can also be his laziness and he couldn't be bothered to put much effort onto expressing his thoughts. But the whole point is that his posts aren't contributing much to the disscussion, therefore not benfitting the town much. Scum or not, my main point is to encourage PBuG to explain his reasoning.

[Raffles]

Fair enough. It's just that I was slightly ticked because I noted it but was planning on to see how PBuG behaves a bit more.

[Mr. Flay]

Meh? Since when is witholding insight protown, Raffles?