Mini 1543--Natirasha's On Parole!(Game Over)

[Selkies]

is your read on katsuki predicated solely on earlygame shenanigans?

[FourTrouble]

Nah, now its based on lack of contribution + early game.

[FourTrouble]

Also process of elimination.

[Selkies]

1. MafiaSSK
2. Cabd
3. Selkies(fferyllt+orcinus_theoriginal)
4. zMuffinMan
5. FourTrouble
6. King Kenny
7. The Goodfather*
8. kabooooom*
9. Bert Karlos4
10. RossWilliam
11. Aronis
12. Idiotking*
13. Katsuki

POE means you have townreads on questionable figures like kenny, kaboom, aronis. Talk to me about those.

[FourTrouble]

katsuki is town, foutrouble is town, mafiassk is maybe town, selkies is scum

I also think this is pretty damning for zMuffin. As I said before, it's fine to critique my analysis of Katsuki's post on rule 6, but to call Katsuki town on that basis makes no sense whatsoever. zMuffin's analysis was basically saying Katsuki's post was too scummy to come from scum, and then calling Katsuki town on that basis. I just don't see a townie going that far.

[Selkies]

yeah but talk to me about how on earth you have so many townreads that you're able to bring this down to poe already

[FourTrouble]

Aronis is town because of his response when I asked what people thought of Ross. It showed me he was thinking about the game the way town thinks about the game. He saw someone vote for Ross, and that prompted him to think about Ross with more depth. I think scum are among those who did not offer their thoughts of Ross.

King Kenny is ultimately null but I thought the following post had hints of town that Katsuki/zMuffin's posts lack:

@idiotking:

I don't know what you don't get about my post or what I mean. Bert seems to be posting naturally without it looking forced, or containing fluff or nonsense.

I think scum would have tried to rationalize their read more. King Kenny's explanation just makes sense given the view I'm getting of the guy. Is it a solid read? No. But it sure has more town in it than anything Katsuki or zMuffin has posted.

[FourTrouble]

Selkies, you're town as I already mentioned. There were a few posts in the first 10 pages that I liked a lot, and the fact you offered your thoughts on Ross was town for me.

Idiotking, Bert, SSK -- don't think I need to explain those town-reads.

Goodfather/Cabd -- I'm still trying to evaluate their interaction, which seemed over-the-top at times, but overall I like them as town. I had Goodfather down as town based on town quite early, and likewise for Cabd.

Anything I'm missing? This game really isn't that hard. Ross/Katsuki/zMuffin. It makes sense. It's clear.

[FourTrouble]

Kaboom could be scum, not enough to go on. I kinda skipped over his posts for lack of information. I'd say scum are within Ross/Katsuki/zMuffin/Kaboom, and more likely to be Katsuki/zMuffin/Ross based on the fact that I expect more from them. Kaboom seems more like he's got no clue what's going on, regardless of alignment, and I'm not sure why he's in the game.

[FourTrouble]

Also, you can check my games if you don't believe, but I'm actually pretty good when it comes to accuracy of reads in this game, based on a single post or two early in the game.

[Cabd]

This is me prod dodging until I get my meds tomorrow.

[FourTrouble]

zMuffin, can you direct me to a couple of your games as mafia?

[Idiotking]

Oh, you wound me. My apologies if you guys are too advanced for me, but I've grown fond of training wheels.

Is this to be taken at face value?

...no. I was being sarcastic.

I'm confused, because you seem to be thinking that 1. it was too early to matter that you were sheeping, and 2. it was late enough for people to have valid town reads on you. Those conflict, don't they?

Let me break this down...what lovely smartness in your post here. Does this confusion mean you think how MafiaSSK is thinking is 'unusual?'

The confusion thing was just a turn of phrase. My point was that his thinking was inconsistent, meaning his defense didn't hold up.

What do you think of gut reads in general?

I don't like them in the slightest, because you can't talk about them. They simply exist. If you can't argue in favor of them or against them, they're amazingly useless to my form of scumhunting. I am only barely tolerant of them, simply because the site as a whole seems to accept them as at least minimally valid.

This is puzzling since you are reading Selkies as town based on actions that town (and scum appearing town) make. They appear irritated about unexplained votes and probe people with weak analysis. Is there another reason you're reading the hydra as town?

Does there have to be? If I am leaning town on Selkies because they're doing things that act town, why is that insufficient?

[zMuffinMan]

zMuffin, can you direct me to a couple of your games as mafia?

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=32587
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=30226
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=30730 (as Rail Tracer)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=31988

and

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=37251

[zMuffinMan]

oh shit, ignore that last one, please

[Bert]

Does there have to be? If I am leaning town on Selkies because they're doing things that act town, why is that insufficient?

I guess I was secretly hoping there was something else you could probe deeper into to read competent scum players.

[Bert]

I don't like them in the slightest, because you can't talk about them. They simply exist. If you can't argue in favor of them or against them, they're amazingly useless to my form of scumhunting. I am only barely tolerant of them, simply because the site as a whole seems to accept them as at least minimally valid.

Well, I can understand if gut reads appear like a person is inventing stuff and don't appear rational in announcing those gut scumreads, etc.

In general, I don't think casting gut reads aside because they're minimal impact is the best idea.

The confusion thing was just a turn of phrase. My point was that his thinking was inconsistent, meaning his defense didn't hold up.

Do you think SSK is town? You sure have invested a lot of energy to discount his defense...

...no. I was being sarcastic.

OK, I misunderstood that as a genuine reaction to SSK's pressure.

[MafiaSSK]

Yeah, no, I'm not replying to Idiotking. That's just making me want to lurk and I'm not lurking here. But whatever his case is full of crap and I'm pretty sure most people here know it.

[MafiaSSK]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Aronis

Give Aronis a break, Cabd. I'm pretty sure they're new.

Cabd was right about this being scummy.

Almost as bad as me defending Muffin. How do you know Aronis?

1 hour till Aussie open finals. Seeya tomorrow guys

I don't. I was looking at his join date and that's why I was questioning him so hard. If he gave scummy responses then I would have responded accordingly. But instead he gave newbish responses.

[MafiaSSK]

bert is scum

he hasn't done anything completely antitown, he hasn't self-voted and he hasn't asked to be lynched

Is this a joke or something from meta? Because I don't understand.

FourTrouble. Thanks for finally explaining your vote, but I think your preoccupied with how I play. Some people throw votes and pressure around and use that to find scum, I tend to think out loud and see what people respond to and see how they interact with eachother. You can call it cautious or unagressive, but in my opinion you're more likely to find scum in someone who is trying too hard or being ingenuine. There's no room for townies to be deceptive. And if I was going after easy lynches, I'd be campaigning hard against some who would have a hard time defending himself, this game has a couple. My vote isn't on anyone yet and it'll stay that way until I have more to go on. I'm interested in King Kenny and Kaboooom because I don't have anything on them right now, and I want to compare them to the people who are currently topping my scum list

I really don't like the way RossWilliams words himself in this post. It seems so

forced

.

[MafiaSSK]

I don't see why people have unvoted Muffinz. I still see him as scum. I'll continue to read and post some more.

[MafiaSSK]

I'm also not seeing the selkies wagon still. It seems to be full of crap and overeager votes.

[MafiaSSK]

bert is scum

he hasn't done anything completely antitown, he hasn't self-voted and he hasn't asked to be lynched

See, its posts like these that make me think of Muffin as scum. Like I know that he's giving a reason and everything and that's typically my voter, but here muffin just isn't giving it any effort. Bert had been in for what a day or two max? Or maybe it's just a joke in which case it's contributing nothing and muffin is still scum.
But why would he be joking? I don't see why.

[zMuffinMan]

i don't see why, either

[Bert]

I also think this is pretty damning for zMuffin. As I said before, it's fine to critique my analysis of Katsuki's post on rule 6, but to call Katsuki town on that basis makes no sense whatsoever. zMuffin's analysis was basically saying Katsuki's post was too scummy to come from scum, and then calling Katsuki town on that basis.

I just don't see a townie going that far.

There are players like Nacho who - from past experience - will announce townreads right then and there, in a nanosecond, during page 2 or 3. I am not defending Muffin since I am perplexed by what he is doing in this game (he's dancing around questions/attention right now, for example)...I'm looking at the case on Muffin, and this part isn't too convincing. But, I can see your point and why you might think that, as I have brought up (in past games) the same suspicions against Nacho. I know, I know, comparison to two players and two totally different situations...but that is my point of reference/relating to put my thoughts together.

Also process of elimination.

With that said, your using "PoE" on D1 when some players have barely shown up, to call a few people scum, is going just as far as Muffin did for a townread - which is what you accused him of doing.