Marathon 14 (Assassin in the Palace)

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #10 (isolation #1) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:59 am

/confirm

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #20 (isolation #2) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:03 am

Obviously we have to find the scum without letting the scum find the king.

All townies have one piece of common information: the name of the king.

I'm right now thinking of a way to encode that name so that the assassin can not deduce who the king is while we use the code to deduce who the assassin is.

This can be rather tough.

Any help would be appreciated.

You all know who the king is! except the assassin.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #27 (isolation #3) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:07 am

i'm talking about YOU because I want YOU to help me think of a way to encode the king's name/user information in such a way that the assassin can not figure him out while we can use each part to figure out the assassin.

tho strictly speaking this should be impossible.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #30 (isolation #4) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:17 am

I have proof it can't be done COMPLETELY i think, however there are ways to do it incompletely that give us marginal odds. Though these odds may not be favorable for the town, I'm trying to think of way to have it so that it is favorable to the town.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #34 (isolation #5) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:22 am

this is true, our marginal odds probably will not at any point compensate us for the information loss to the assassin.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #58 (isolation #6) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:37 am

the killers probability of winning at each stage in the game of lynching without taking information into account is:

1/5
1/4
1/3
1/2

.2->.25->.33->.5

Missing a lynch is bad because it increases the killer's probability of winning.

Lynching mojo however does NOT increase the killer's probability of winning, not only has he claimed guard, but he's also been put at lynch-1, something that the guards would almost NEVER do to the king. So the Killer does know that mojo is a guard, thus to lynch him would not increase the killer's odds of winning at this stage because he already knows he shouldn't kill mojo.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #60 (isolation #7) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:38 am

honestly guys. mojo is as good to us as dead, we can only gain by lynching him at this point.

vote mojo

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #62 (isolation #8) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:38 am

Jdodge, do you understand why we can't lose any ground by lynching mojo at this point in the game?

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #70 (isolation #9) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:42 am

THE ASSASSIN'S ODDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN INCREASED IF HE IS ACTUALLY A GUARD. LYNCHING HIM DOES NOT INCREASE THE ASSASSIN'S ODDS

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #80 (isolation #10) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:46 am

we are not in a good spot.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #88 (isolation #11) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:49 am

bah humg

vote DoS

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #89 (isolation #12) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:50 am

i really hate the mechanism now

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #104 (isolation #13) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:59 am

he had a 1/4 shot when you put mojo at 1 from lynch,

he had a 1/3 shot when mojo took a swing at DoS as he was going down.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #106 (isolation #14) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:00 am

vote Fiasco

sigh I hate this game

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #108 (isolation #15) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:00 am

the assassin has no reason to suicide.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #112 (isolation #16) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:01 am

i think she count wrong

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #115 (isolation #17) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:01 am

we don't lose anything from lynching him since he's 1 from lynch

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #126 (isolation #18) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:09 am

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #136 (isolation #19) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:12 am

mojo's vote on you day 1 made you already dead in my opinion because mojo was guard and unlikely to distance.

your breadcrumbing comment absolutely reeked to me because of the pointlessness of the whole excercise, why BC information that you CAN'T reveal?

you unvoted to get mojo to keep talking, at that point he was confirmed guard to you because of the votes on him, you basically lengthened his time of existence to pump him for more information. in this game time works against the town, once some1 is being brought to the guillotine, it's best to just kill them rather than to let them blab too much.

Also in my point of view, Mojo had cleared both you and I of being the king with his day one votes as a confirmed guard, if Jdodge was the assassin, then he should have already won.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #139 (isolation #20) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:16 am

you actually BCed? O.O

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #144 (isolation #21) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:20 am

the town can vote for the King, it's just that I thought mojo was highly unlikely to open with a vote on the king to distance.

Like during the entire game, noone voted for Jdodge or OverTheUnder, which is why they ended up standing out like sore thumbs for you to make a decision between.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #146 (isolation #22) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:24 am

bloody deceptively easy at that....

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #149 (isolation #23) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:26 am

I actually think this game might be biased towards the assassin at least a little bit.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #154 (isolation #24) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:35 am

Actually the reason why I thought you should've had MM in front of JD in your list is because the more aggressive players would tend to be guards because the King has less information than the guards to work with.

PookyTheMagicalBear · Post Post #158 (isolation #25) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 9:39 am

that's just evil.

you are bad bad