NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[DOMO]

If Bert is scum, then the paranoia direction arrow is going to be permanently reversed and he's going to hate playing with me forever more.

This post slipped my attention. It really doesn't help that you're towning those who I'm thinking are scum. I think the sudden change to SSK looks very bad for casso and bert.

For me to consider casso as town, I feel this means SSK is town too, because otherwise casso would be a much better mislynch for scum than SSK. casso was legit vulnerable and could at least have been forced to claim. It didn't happen, instead the claimed doc gets run at. That sudden change of direction suggests to me that scum didn't really like a casso lynch. Unless scum were mostly already on him, it only takes another vote or two to push him into serious danger. Only reason SSK would be a better mislynch for scum is if he's actually town doc. So on that basis casso is a way better lynch than SSK imo. A SSK mislynch is probably worse than a casso mislynch, and SSK has at least some claim to being town because it seems like scum prefer him dead to casso.

[DOMO]

MafiaSSK (8) - zMuffinMan, geists, Desperado, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Bert, Generic, Cephrir

If this is all town then headasplode. From a scum pov, SSK > casso. Townies should be asking why that is, and the natural conclusion is that casso is scum.

Right, poker time for me.

[Generic]

Only issue here is who are the scum that are bussing SSK.

sorry to complicate things further but since we are talking about it why wouldn't a potential SSK lynch be better if scum did leave the town doc alone for us to lynch through paranoia?

The timing is the part that makes the casso link, but if the scum team saw an opening to force the wifom plan through on SSK it would make Casso either alignment.

But out of the three bert is the one that gives us least information... so it has to be casso or SSK to gain the most value from the flip.

or am I missing something?

[DOMO]

A bert scumflip merely supports my thoughts, so it tells us that casso is still a good lynch. otoh, a bert townflip gives us little and wouldn't surprise me all that much if I'm honest, he did seem town through d1 and it's his voting around the time of the SSK lunge that has me thinking he's scum. Town can make dodgy votes too.

I like a casso lynch because I suspect he's RB'er or something else they are willing to take risks to keep alive.

[Generic]

And we have a concensus, beautiful.

VOTE: Casso

[geists]

If Bert is scum, then the paranoia direction arrow is going to be permanently reversed and he's going to hate playing with me forever more.

This post slipped my attention. It really doesn't help that you're towning those who I'm thinking are scum. I think the sudden change to SSK looks very bad for casso and bert.

For me to consider casso as town, I feel this means SSK is town too, because otherwise casso would be a much better mislynch for scum than SSK. casso was legit vulnerable and could at least have been forced to claim. It didn't happen, instead the claimed doc gets run at. That sudden change of direction suggests to me that scum didn't really like a casso lynch. Unless scum were mostly already on him, it only takes another vote or two to push him into serious danger. Only reason SSK would be a better mislynch for scum is if he's actually town doc. So on that basis casso is a way better lynch than SSK imo. A SSK mislynch is probably worse than a casso mislynch, and SSK has at least some claim to being town because it seems like scum prefer him dead to casso.

Yeah, I am aware that this is another read that disagrees with yours.

I'm not done evaluating either of them, but my day 2 reads are tentative town and strong town on casso and bert respectively.

Think about what caused the resurgence of the SSK wagon. It was Nati. This slot. Which you partially cleared as town. Though I think you're right that there are probably more than 1 scum on that wagon no matter what his alignment.

[DOMO]

But that's it. Nati's vote caused a flurry, because that's a near confirmed townie supporting it. Sheeping a townie isn't much of a scum tell, so it's now a safe wagon for scum looking to save casso. If casso is town, why would scum want to look to move the wagon away from him?

[geists]

It's a safe wagon full stop.

Same fucking thing happened in the NY 165 game on day 1 when I voted Nero. The players who were potentially "saved" by that wagon were all town IIRC.

[DOMO]

Yes but the difference is nero and casso. Here it's casso on the ropes. Why aren't scum seizing on a fistpump mislynch? Because they're scared to? Or because it's not a mislynch?

[geists]

That's actually a good question.

I have a theory, but I don't know if it's accurate. Considering my baseline reactions as likely or typical town reactions hasn't worked all that well for me in the past. :/

[Generic]

The only thing that can be a grey area is if casso is townreading several scum, and the obvious nature of a quick wagon on casso if he were to flip town.

But it all comes down to timing really, it's very convenient how it shifted.

[Empire]

Day 2, Votecount 24

MafiaSSK (6)

-

geists, Desperado, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Bert, Cephrir

Casso the King of Seals (5)

-

goodmorning, DOMO, Norlkaz, BROseidon, Generic

Bert (2)

-

KoreanBBQ, Ser Arthur Dayne

Desperado (1)

-

MC Maraca

Ser Arthur Dayne (1)

-

pieguyn

Cephrir (1)

-

F-16_Fighting_Falcon

Not Voting (2)

-

MafiaSSK, zMuffinMan

With 18 alive, it takes 10 to lynch! Deadline is on January 11th at 10:10 AM EST (expired on 2014-01-11 11:10:12)

Mod Notes

-

Generic is V/LA until Sunday.

[Casso the King of Seals]

PLEASE ABORT.
Geists, I think you have chosen poorly.
First and most importantly, SSK is NOT likely to flip scum for behavioral reasons I shall explain when we have more time.
His doctor claim has gone uncountered. I find it unlikely we have no protective role.
Doctor is valuable here because we have a lot of other roles claimed AND we're on evens with our vig dead.
The high likelihood scum will shoot him if we leave him alone is a factor as well.

I don't agree with Nati on this, but I'm finding the various actions and reactions to this wagon quite interesting.

Where do you think we should go today?

[DOMO]

I'm practically confirmed townie and so far I've mustered up generic's vote and arguably bro's. Does that not say something about how willing scum are to lynch casso? If he's town, then those already on him are likely to be scum, and I'm as scum as empire is.

[Bert]

Vote: Casso

[Casso the King of Seals]

No. The push on Nero Cain became a bus eventually, but when DrPepper was lynched the push to bus was mostly pushed by me and he followed along because DrPepper was getting lynched with or without him.

ftr this drops my muffin town read into a null to null-scum read then.

The initial town read was based on him usually hard-bussing his scum mates as scum, since he'd done that in every scum game of his that I'd seen. That said, if he has a recent pattern of not doing that, then that's less valid, and the apathy could easily be coming from the place of muffin liking town more than scum.

His complaint to me in touhou (or marketplace QT, both scum QTs seem to blend together) was that he used to like town a lot more than scum, but was starting to like scum more because he didn't have to sort through all of the VIs. His explanations for apathy (noise, Christmas season, etc) make sense and are perfectly valid, but it's still not what I expect townMuffin to deliver and he continues not to deliver.

[DOMO]

casso, why do you think scum aren't seizing on your mislynch?

[Casso the King of Seals]

Also it seems you've never pushed me early, so how would you know what quality of reactions you'd get from me if you did?

I think you start slow. You don't think you start slow. How does that make me scum?

I've pushed you late and I didn't get a fantastic quality of reactions from you. I can't see me getting a better quality of reactions from pushing you early.

Did I say it makes you Scum?

Hmm.

If he's scum, then good chance he's being bussed to take heat off other scum.

PREACH IT

You heavily implied it.

[Casso the King of Seals]

casso, why do you think scum aren't seizing on your mislynch?

Every time I have been mislynched, I have been mislynched by town. Scum generally stay the fuck off my wagon because there's a strong chance I will be able to turn the wagon around and that leaves them in a horrible position. Look at the lynch fervor in Xenogears against me: muffin, Mastin, Ghostlin, Andy, BRO were all the main pushers: scum were nowhere to be found.

[Casso the King of Seals]

Cabd claimed masons with you, called you town for ~vague meta reasons~ for a while, then retracted the fake claim, then reiterated the claim. It's pretty clear you two are masons together unless you're not actually masons together, in which case you should probably say something.

Why the fuck would you say this.

If he's not the other mason, the town play would be to pretend to be the other mason until the round before expected LyLo, when the real mason would come forward.

It's horribly, horribly, horribly obvious by now.

[Casso the King of Seals]

Generic, I haven't been hiding for a moment this game; my thought processes are out in the open and if you need a point to engage me on, engage me on my reads. Which ones do you disagree with?

[Bert]

I've been mostly AWOL for 8 IRL days since D2 began. Do you miss me? You won't by Wednesday night... you'll want to shoot me by then. <3

[Bert]

Dear Domo, I'll miss you if you die as town!!!!

[Casso the King of Seals]

@ENTIRE THREAD - A CrAzY challenge! Let's try to get an L-1 wagon *before* we hit 100 pages! Can we do it!?!?! Who the heck knows!!!!

This post is surely nacho (it's been trimmed). Thor doesn't use smileys, nacho is more laid back than thor, this seems to show that nacho is also in favour of getting d1 over with. Casso, please confirm who posted this, thanks.

It was Thor: I'm a massive fan of dirty language and wouldn't be caught dead saying "heck" instead of fuck.

[Casso the King of Seals]

I can't read Cephrir worth a shit.