Mini 388: DOOMsville II {Game Over!}

[ShadowLurker]

The SK is lying about not being SK. If we don't get them converted, they can still win by dodging two lynches. So the right play, I believe, is to lynch the most likely SK target until/unless they fess up.

Why would the SK choose to try and dodge two lynches over a guranteed win?

[MrBuddyLee]

Because there's no guarantee from their perspective that I'm capable of converting them, so they have to weigh the risks. Plus, it might not seem as glorious a win if they get converted... somewhat similar to a townie winning by getting recruited by cult.

The SK probably prefers to win as SK by killing everything in sight--that's what they do. They may change their mind on the cusp of a lynch... we shall see.

[Adele]

You say I should be pushing for no-lynch? LOL. So scummy. No risk to you of death today, and you gank me first thing tomorrow.

I'm talking about what makes sense for you. If you're so sure, then what'd be the downside?

I'm okay with one of two scenarios; if we were to no-lynch and the day continued into tomorrow, that'd completely undermine the paradigm that MBL's pushing and he'd be the smart lynch. Alternatively, we can just lynch him today and if I'm somehow wrong about him and it continues into tomorrow I'm the sensible lynch. With either of these possibilities, it's a win for town if MBL or I is the SK (I think common opinion's willing to bet the game on geraintm, and I think I am).
MBL, what's your response to these suggestions? In the case of my being the SK, these suggestions'd lead me to either win via an altered WC or just lose, and, more importantly, the town would be sure to win. If you're against both, I'd really like to hear why.

[MrBuddyLee]

Before I claimed I considered the SK's logical response.

1) If they assume I'm telling the truth, the logical response is to claim and win with town.

2) If they assume I'm bluffing, the logical response is to NOT claim (cause then they'd lose) and push for no-lynch, then get me lynched tomorrow for not converting them. Then they automatically win the game the next day.

If Adele is the SK, which I believe to be true, she's playing it safe and assuming I'm bluffing and is following option 2 to the T. Option (1) is too risky for her to bank on.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also, she knows lynching me today is too risky because it'll expose her in time to be caught tomorrow when I turn up psych. She can only win by maintaining reasonable doubt that I'm the SK until sunset tomorrow.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

It's time for the third Vote Count of DOOM

2 - MrBuddyLee (Adele, Norinel)
1 - Adele (MrBuddyLee)

Not Voting: geraintm, ShadowLurker

Remember with 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch!

[MrBuddyLee]

Odd post by Norinel:

vote: MBL.

It's growing more and more obvious that he's something not pro-town trying to stall for time, and even if he's a jester or whatever, there should only be one scum left we can deal with tomorrow.

By killing me, you think we'll be at one scum left tomorrow? Meaning you think there are two scum left right now or meaning there's one scum left and I'm not it?

Why are you voting for someone you don't think is scum?

[ShadowLurker]

I will vote once I get geraintm's resposne.

[MrBuddyLee]

Before you vote, you should probably get everyone on the record about who they think the SK is and why. If you decide to lynch me for some reason, you'll need that info tomorrow.

[Adele]

Also, she knows lynching me today is too risky because it'll expose her in time to be caught tomorrow when I turn up psych. She can only win by maintaining reasonable doubt that I'm the SK until sunset tomorrow.

Try reading my posts, MBL - I'd

prefer

to lynch you today, which according to you would condemn me to a loss. What do you say?

I want to lynch MBL, and I'm willing to compromise on a no-lynch. MBL, are you pushing the "lynching Adele is the only way" agenda, even though (if you're telling the truth, and I am the SK) it manifestly

isn't

the only viable plan?

[geraintm]

Ok, am not the serial killer.
My three targets were Ozy night one - i put the lynching vote on him because i wanted to test him as unlynchable townie, and then knowing he was a town i went to save him. this is why i pushed at MBL so hard once i knew him where he had been night one.
knowing someone targetted Ozy who didn't die made me very curious.
night 2 i protected Shadow, he was cop.
night 3, the obvious thing was to protect shadow again, but i thought that was too obvious, the mafia knew i had protected him the night before and would almost certainly do so again, so i moved away from the cop and went with someone who had been cleared by the cop.


the thing that puzzles me, is that MBL has said previously that he can't reveal his role, otherwise he gets mod killed.
he just revealed his role, and didn't get mod killed. Explain

i think i have done the 2 things i was asked to do.

[MrBuddyLee]

geraint, I felt that if I claimed psychiatrist too soon the SK would target me immediately. So I've been trying to claim things that would draw the SK out into the open. I think my actions will prove to be helpful to town in the long run but that'll be for you to decide after the game. You have two players who are cop-cleared and one is the SK, and I've tried to poke and prod at them to get the information necessary to make the decision. As of yesterday, I knew that if we lynched Adele and Norinel we'd almost certainly win the game by hitting SK, I just didn't know which one. Now, I'm pretty sure it's Adele.

Sadly, if SL offs me today I won't meet my win condition. I hope you guys lynch Adele today. On the extraordinarily slim chance that fails to win the game,

and

then I don't convert the SK tonight, you can off me tomorrow if you really feel you need to. The best piece of evidence in favor of me not being the SK is that kilmenator proved I acted at night, implying that I am not a daykiller. Ignore that at your peril.

And ask yourself which set of roles looks most reasonable:

#1
protown watchman
protown copycat
protown cowardly reporter
protown tracker
protown cop
protown deputy
protown kamikaze
protown doctor

protown unlynchable townie turned mafia goon
mafia godfather (daykilled)
mafia double voter (daykilled)

daykilling serial killer claiming psychiatrist

#2
protown watchman
protown copycat
protown cowardly reporter
protown tracker
protown cop
protown deputy
protown doctor

neutral psychiatrist

protown unlynchable townie turned mafia goon
mafia godfather (daykilled)
mafia double voter (daykilled)

daykilling serial killer claiming kamikaze

#3
protown watchman
protown copycat
protown cowardly reporter
protown tracker
protown cop
protown kamikaze
protown doctor

neutral psychiatrist

protown unlynchable townie turned mafia goon
mafia godfather (daykilled)
mafia double voter (daykilled)

daykilling serial killer claiming deputy

Personally, I think deputy looks like the made-up role. In a game with a billion pro-town power roles, why have a backup for the cop?

And SL, you keep talking about a 4th mafia member instead of an SK, but that would require that the remaining killer slaughtered their own teammates on D2 D3. That's just not feasible. There's an SK alive.

[ShadowLurker]

Vote: MBL

In my opinion, there's just no way that he's not guilty and everything from post 916 on was just to cover the bases.

For him not to the guilty would require Adele to be a daykilling SK who chose to lie about her role who's still trying to get MBL lynched knowing full well that she'll have lost her chance to win with the town and has the biggest probability of being lynched tommorow. That versus the scenario of MBL being guilty which seems much more likely to me.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

It's time for the final Vote Count of DOOM

3 - MrBuddyLee (Adele, Norinel, ShadowLurker)

1 - Adele (MrBuddyLee)

Not Voting: geraintm


The town is becoming restless after deliberating for the 4th Day. After some heated discussion, the town finally decides to lynch MrBuddyLee. He is brought to the center of the town for everyone to see his DOOM...

MrBuddyLee, mafia recruiter, lynched Day 4

You are the Mafia Recruiter. Once during the game you can choose to recruit a player, and that player will be joining into your mafia group. The catch is that the recruited player will lose all previous abilities and your mafia group cannot night-kill the night that you recruit.

It is now Night 4, choices due at 8PM EST on Tuesday, March 27th, 2007

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

After another long night, everyone gathers in the center of the town and see if anyone was DOOMed last night. With the recent trend of nobody dying during night, everyone had the assumption that all would still be alive, and after a thorough head count, the assumption was right… Which means there are still 4 of you alive…

It is now Day 5, with 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch!

[geraintm]

that was a quick night. me thinks only one person had a night action...
4 of us left, shadow are you going to investigate one of adele/norinel and see what you get this time. i doubt you will get anything useful though

[Adele]

I've been thinking about it. I know SL's town, and I still trust geraintm. I think the reason MBL pushed me as the liar was because I was the biggest threat to him (especially with my obsession with lynching liars) and he was just desperate to stay in it. But now he's out (thank God) and I can think about stuff without him confusing me, I'm 90% sure Norinel's the SK. He's the play by my reckoning.

vote: Norinel

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

It's time for the first Vote Count of DOOM

1 - Norinel (Adele)

Not Voting: Norinel, geraintm, ShadowLurker

Remember with 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch!

[Adele]

I think the reason MBL pushed me as the liar was because I was the biggest threat to him (especially with my obsession with lynching liars) and he was just desperate to stay in it.

That should've been "the reason MBL pushed me as the

SK

".

[geraintm]

just rereading, i would have been happier if norinel had never placed a vote during the game...

[Adele]

Yeah, I really could've bought "voteless townie".

[Norinel]

Well, as much as I'd like to say being uncommitted was part of my clever plan to save the bomb to clinch endgame, but it really has been a hard several weeks in many ways.

And if you all do decide to lynch me, we should decide carefully who the second most likely person is and force them to place the deciding vote as all but a second lynch. And so Adele looks a whole lot more suspicious in my eyes for being quick to cast the first vote, since that makes it impossible for her to die in the event of my lynch unless she unvotes first. Why else would you be so quick to cast a vote when we're one daykill away from lynch or lose?

[Adele]

I think we're

in

lynch or lose, and I think you're the play. I'm willing to bet the game on it.

It's unlikely that there's going to be an accidental quicklynch, so if people ask me to unvote and wait to hammer, that's one option (precluding something crazy happening in the meantime eg SL announcing a guilty investigation on geraintm).
It's not like the vote's sticky.

[ShadowLurker]

I've investigated all 3 of you already and got all innocent so it's unlikely for me to get anything else.

As for today, Norinel is DEFINITELY the lynch as we should use his ability to lynch two people rather one, now, we must decide whether Adele or geraintm is more scummy since I am cleared as if I was scum, Adele would have to be as well and 6 scum in a game would just be unbalanced. Norinel's being "cleared" does not apply today MBL and Norinel being both scum is a plausible possibility now.

This means that I should definitely be the first vote on Norinel and that Adele should unvote.

I have a question though.

Mod: If there is a daykill of a player who is not voting while two person are already on a third person, will the daykill lower the amount to lynch and cause that person to be lynched? Or will a daykill reset the votes?

[Adele]

unvote