Newbie 320 - Berry Village Mafia V (Game Over!)

[Peter Venkman]

Okayyy...

I don't know where you're going with this. I'm not defending his WIFOM, in fact, I was the first person to bring attention to it. Maybe you need to re-read my posts?

-Peter

[remussaidow]

I'm attacking CES peter, not you.

[Peter Venkman]

Gotcha, sorry, just this felt like you were lumping me in with CES.

Peter and CES, CES especially, since Peter just ran with your first statement, there really is no good reason for a WIFOM discussion there. At all.

Sorry. Do you see where I might get mistaken?

-Peter

[remussaidow]

yes, I can understand it. Especially in this point in the game though, we definiately don't want to be helping scum by distracting ourselves with things like wifom.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm just being honest. I would've killed Peter. This is true. I don't expect you to believe it. Furthermore, I know people never believe this type of argument, so I'm gonna throw in a common sense argument too. Killing Peter would remove a vocal opponent. Killing GreenLiquid gives me very little, but a weak WIFOM argument that noone ever takes seriously because they're afraid to get screwed over by nightkill analysis.

I made the same argument in my first newbie. It was true then and it's true now.

[Eldarion]

Just checking in.

I don't really get remus' argument/conversation... CES, you did sort of hint at WIFOM (I assume this is what I think it is); but I wouldn't attack it as hard as it has been. Maybe I'm being too warm-hearted, but it seems he (CES) was complementing you (Peter) and kind of fumbled the wording when restating it in his next post; it's fine to point out that's it's not an auto-defence, but it didn't really seem to be that persuasive of a [scum-]fallacy.
Nocmen was definitely fishing in

his

deduction of Peter's comment as a semi-'doctor claim'; this was well-pointed out by CES (as it should be by an IC). Nocmen still seems to think it was a claim and posted as such with "...I think though he did just slip up accidentally, and I am a complete dumbass for pointing it out to the scum." I personally don't think there's anything to back this up, Peter's reasoning was purely hypothetical, and was from the point of view that he was the most likely target and as such would have been protected by another player/doctor.

This is what I've got so far, dig in.

[Eldarion]

(CES's post wasn't up when I started).

CES has a solid argument there, it makes reasonable sense. I think it defends his point as far as WIFOM goes, it doesn't

prove

anything, but it shouldn't be dismissed as a scumtell.

[Peter Venkman]

Well now we are back where we started from...

Eldarion

, got time for another big post? =)

-Peter

[Peter Venkman]

Oh wow, good job simulpost...

[Peter Venkman]

Well, Remus behavior has me befuddled, and i'm not sure what Nocment was doing with the fishing expedition.

I sincerely beleive that

CES

doesn't like me. It's sort of funny, the other message board I spend a lot of time at has explicit rules

against

wishing death upon another person. Here it is all we do! It is taking some getting used to.

Eldarion, at this time, who is your no1 suspect?

-Peter

[Eldarion]

I don't think remus' behaviour on page 3 has been adequately dealt with. There was a lot on that page that made me really think that he was scum. It hasn't really been shown that what he was doing was newbie (he has game experience prior to this) or that it was viable pro-town action.

The page 3-4 scenario has been one of the most active for the people who are still here and alive.

vote: CES

For trying to pregame lynch me. Seriously dude, was that even legal?

...

This post led to a lot of scum calls and the like. There was nothing in this post to indicate that it may be joking. As remus says below, "... a poorly justified joke is much more useful...", this may be true, but it's also incredibly dangerous as by definition it is will at best make intelligent townies suspicious of you and at worst result in town bandwagoning town. Don't get me wrong, it

can

be useful, but in this game there's no way for anyone to verify anything (except in victory/defeat), and so everything must be well justified or self-evident, and the latter is very rare. On this basis one can't possibly be expected to believe you when you jump up and yell, "I'm just joking, to get scum to show themselves"; it's just not feasible. Even I thought about posting something like this to draw out scum, it took all of about 2 seconds to realize why it was a terrible plan.

... GL, in the random voting stage, a non-random but poorly justified joke is much more useful. A random vote, people shrug off. However, I gave a reason for a non-significant vote and made it seemed like I cared about it (as I did know that it was a joke), and have thus gained valuable information based upon the reactions of everyone.

I think I said why the above post is not adequate defense already. It also suffers from the same sort of claim as the one below.

the information is written plainly on the thread, for it is not my response that I am looking for but everyone elses.

My vote is already cast. It will stay cast until someone acts scummy enough to remove it and place a vote upon them.

I (and many others) posted why this was a terrible defence at the time, and this particular claim is why I bring up the remus subject again. Read post 71 on for a refresher.

His defense:

...
The point though, Peter, to me sitting on information, as you put it (which I still don't think that I did) is to give everyone time to form their own opinions. It is a very bad idea to run along behind an analyst and use his posts as the basis for your votes. I did this in newbie 300, behind SV, and he ended up being scum. I say this right now so that everyone here will formulate his or her own opinions on the game...

I don't think this is a good enough reason. Especially as you apparently gained valuable information on who was scum on page 3 and we are yet to see the fruits of your labour.

Remus also had motive:

Any votes during the random vote stage shouldn't appear as true attacks. They are merely used to jump-start the game and gather reactions. If you do get two random votes, it is not something to worry about: remember, they are baseless, and there most likely isn't any argument against you at that point.

The way remussaidow responds to CES' pre-game comment strikes me as very scummy. Reacting in that way is a pretty strong tell. In addition, it looks more so scummy when he begins 'attacking' other players (I use this term loosely, but you can see that he does say things towards some others). I'm not entirely sure he's scum at this point, but it's the best lead I can find:

(I edited out GL's vote for remus)

The difference between GL and I, is twofold: GL was an IC who suspected him and was inherently a bigger threat, and I was almost inactive, both in my offense on remus (which I didn''t post about much in the build-up to N1) and my posts were quite sporadic. That could be why GL got lynched.

I don't think I missed too much here, this is as succinctly as I can put my thinking on remus at the moment.

[Eldarion]

My layout is never very clear and I must apologize about that, I just type things as they pop into my head and as such it's not very ordered, on rereading my post it seems some of the points could use more introduction. Esp. the point where I just dived into the differences between GL and I, this was mainly to deal with the point: "If you're so vehemently convinced of remus' guilt, and he is guilty, then why are you still alive?" Thought I'd nip it in the bud before it came up.

Also, if you don't understand what I'm trying to say anywhere, please tell me and I'll try to make it more clear; I don't want to have a lot of vaguely important sounding phrases that don't mean or contribute anything */me frowns at certain people*.

I don't think a FoS is required by me here, it can be taken for granted.

[Peter Venkman]

Looks like we need to hear from

Remus

again...

I'm sitting on the fence between

CES

and

Remus

, both are equally good choices in my mind.

-Peter

[Nocmen]

Well...we know there are two scum left in this town. One of them is CES/Remus, and who knows who the other one is.

I trust CES with how he covered himself, and to be honest if hes not scum, then Remus definitly has to be.

Vote:Remus

[Eldarion]

Well...we know there are two scum left in this town. One of them is CES/Remus, and who knows who the other one is.

I trust CES with how he covered himself, and to be honest if hes not scum, then Remus definitly has to be.

Vote:[EDIT]

I'm not voting at this point: how the hell can you claim to know that one of CES/Remus is scum?!

I'm gonna chuck an

FoS

on that.

[Nocmen]

Well I started working with pairs of possible scum. From day 1, we found out that either CES/Remus is not a pair, or they are a very stupid working together one at that. Then, from analyzing the thread a few times over, I am 99% sure that you (Eldarion) and Peter can not be a pair of scum. This means that 1 scum is CES/Remus, and the other is Eldarion/Peter. From reading over, I have a doubt right now that CES could be scum. If CES is not scum, then Remus has to be, because if not, the pair of scum isnt working together at all. Not just distancing themselves from each other, but actually risking the game for them.

[Eldarion]

I still don't get how you can risk the game on a vote for Remus though; It only takes 1 vote for the game to be lost at this point and you're willing to risk the game (I'm willing to accept you're town for this hypothesis) on CES's rather weak argument that he's town. You said that one of CES/Remus is town, saying that CES argued well on one point does

not

take him out of the equation. Right now I'm hoping that either you or remus is scum, because otherwise this vote could end very badly...

[Peter Venkman]

Interesting.

Remus

really

needs to respond now.

-Peter

[remussaidow]

You're logic is faulty Nocmen. Saying that theres a doubt in your mind about the scumminess of CES means just about nothing about how likely I am to be scum. Because liklihoods are not certainties.

[Peter Venkman]

...and now it would be nice to hear from

CES

-Peter

[Eldarion]

You're logic is faulty Nocmen. Saying that theres a doubt in your mind about the scumminess of CES means just about nothing about how likely I am to be scum. Because liklihoods are not certainties.

It is an understatement to say that I am mildly surprised you feel confident enough to not respond to my attack on you, especially with Nocmen's vote on you.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

A very interesting vote...

A bit quick, but I'm not sure how much that means.

I still think it's Nocmen + Romulus, but I'll have to think over this one.

[Peter Venkman]

Well, we have evidence that everyone has seen the thread since

Nocmen

placed his vote.

No lynch occured.

Cogito Ergo Sum

for the first time this game, I actually

agree

with you.

-Peter

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You agree with me on the last point?

[Eldarion]

Only one of them has to be scum for no lynch to occur (or, assuming the other scum is smart, extra votes either). I currently believe Nocmen+Remus or Nocmen + CES are the two best (most likely) scum partner candidates (my paranoia keeps telling me that CES and Peter are just a really, really convincing scum duo; putting as much distance between themselves for the whole thread, and then agreeing to put the nail in town's coffin, but that's very fanciful; and there is actually nothing that points towards this).