Mini 1524: Olympian Gods Mafia - Game Over

[MattP]

Going to sleep, but ooba, I was purposefully using the ISO of MALA specifically, so since at the time I did the analysis she had posted 63 times in this game I checked the first 63 posts of each of her other games.

[Wisdom]

By now i already hav. It doesnt cssy you are town. It says thatyour lay sucks snd itscreally hardvto reaf yiu.

"By now I already have. It doesnt say you are town. It says that your play sucks and its really hard to read you".

That's what I guess it's saying.

[Wisdom]

I just realized Mala is on her wagon. That increases the credibility of the wagon and the likelihood of penguin being scum if you ask me.

ooba, what do you think about this? Why did she mention Mala out of nowhere and why would she think her presence on a wagon increases its credibility?

[Wisdom]

Re: 1010.
Calling him for a 'misrep' ratherbthan a 'mistake' IS againzt whislera.
Point was there was no reason whataoever to unvote all of a sudden.

Did uo readmy entier wall?

I told you why I unvoted, it was not all of a sudden. I was still in a "Are they right about him being town? Am I wrong?" phase, so when you supported him and claimed he was not misrepping me, I showed you where he was misrepping me.

Yes, I read it all. If you want an answer to something else, tell me.

[Grimgroove]

Ok, I've been meaning to try out a new theory that corrects a serious statistical error a lot of people, myself included, make when using meta.

People use a "has or hasn't" meta tell. If someone has done something before as town and they do it again the person says that player is town. This doesn't make sense because the difference between "1 time as town, 0 times as scum" and "2 times as town, 0 times as scum" is not statistically a significant different, and if you consider it being a random sample, then there's a 25% chance of the player doing something twice as town and zero times as scum which isn't statistically significant at all.

This isn't even counting the fact that ACTIONS are usually to some level predetermined as both alignments which introduces bias into the sample.

HOWEVER, there's some stuff, mainly syntax and word use, that people don't really think about.

Consider using the word "scum". Any player can argue that it's very likely both town and scum will use the words plenty each game. HOWEVER, this logic is a statistically unsound point when you take quantity of the word use into play.

Suppose you take 100 games from a player where they were town, where the player started the game from pg 1 and you read up to about the thousandth post of each game and counted one player's uses of the word "scum". Suppose you get a mean of 80 with a standard deviation of 20. You can then find the 95% confidence interval and then check the game we're currently in and see if their number of uses falls in the bracket. It's possible that there is no difference, and that their alignment isn't linearly dependent on their use of the word "scum". It's also possible that their scum and town games DO have a difference, and that they fall into the "town" bracket. You can figure out dependence by also testing a bunch of scum games they were in and seeing if their is a statistical difference between quantity of the word used between the two alignments.

I'd like to try this out.

MattP is scum.

And Malakittens as well.

Nachomamma would be my third choice for scum, but not my first.

VOTE: Malakittens

I'll catch up more extensively later.

[shos]

By now i already hav. It doesnt cssy you are town. It says thatyour lay sucks snd itscreally hardvto reaf yiu.

"By now I already have. It doesnt say you are town. It says that your play sucks and its really hard to read you".

That's what I guess it's saying.

Is correct.

Whiskers if you rather i post like aa9 just say. I dont often make thatmany errors, get a grip.

[Wisdom]

Checking what you're going to post would be good though.

[Wisdom]

Wisdom, can you link me a game where scumMala does what you describe her doing in 1116? If you can bring me a nice example or two, I'll sheep you there.

I'll try.
These three are my games with scum-Mala. (There's one more but she was in a hydra and I didn't interact with her much, so I'm skipping it)
Everyone's being Watched
Monks and Masons
Newbie 1425

Now what's common in all of them is that I sooner or later realized Mala is scum and pushed her lynch. I didn't manage to get it in any of these cases, since the first one was lylo, and in the other two she nightkilled me when the day ended. In all of them, when I expressed I think she is scum, she tried to ignore me and shrug the scumread off instead of convincing me otherwise.

Spoiler: First

In the first one, see 585, where she responds to my "you're so going next" with a "cool" or, more importantly, our exchange in lylo, starting in 938. See how I ask her a shitload of questions and she ignores them and responds to something else. Then she responds after I prod her - just like in this game she fails to respond to things and she does so only if someone prods her (for example her lack of response to penguin's post)
I respond to her responses, she goes back to not responding. Although, in this last case it's justified, since her scumbuddy (who was Grimgroove, btw), had just logged in and they wanted to quickhammer me.

Spoiler: Second

In the second one, heh. See 1100 for a case I make on her, ironically enough the push on goodmorning I am describing there looks so much like her push on penguin here. Or 1239 - like here, I was feeling she was doing completely nothing. Her 1282 - she tells me to shut the fuck up (I was spamming that we have to lynch Mala and getting angry that mollie wanted to lynch goodmorning instead). And again in 1311. No trying to convince me I'm wrong or anything. Also see 1487 about her thoughts on tunnelers (since it's so townish for some when she did it here). See 1493 ("im doing things, you just don't care") and compare it with her 954 here - they are the same post with different words. Well, she tries to respond a little because of my mass spamming about her being scum, but again there's no intent to make me realize I am wrong there, just defending to save herself from being lynched. Then Mala went inactive for like 15 pages, during which time I had compromised to lynch someone else (read: distracted) and didn't spam about Mala having to die anymore. She tried to make the person I was pushing look bad (2610 for example) - which is very similar to how she tries to make shos look bad here. Then she killed me on N1.
Btw, this is the game I was talking about earlier where Nacho didn't want to listen to me about Mala.

Spoiler: Third

Third game. This is the one I referred to in the beginning, regarding her whining about me tunneling on her. She was playing as her alt, Evil Regals, which was hidden to me at the beginning. I was scumreading her anyway, once again for lack of content. During D2, she revealed she is Mala and replaced in with her main. When I saw that, I got much more confident in my scumread (see 468). She whined that I am always tunneling on her (473-475) and once again told me that "I just think I am right about her" (477). In 478 I ask her to tell me what game I was wrong about her in, but she ignored the question (hence why I re-asked it in this game). She also ignored my questions in 523/524. Once again, there's no trying to convince me I am wrong about her, and in this game I wasn't even that stubborn about that. We lynched her scumbuddy (I had to compromise, because once again I couldn't get her lynched), and then she killed me. Then they lynched her the next day, at least.

[Wisdom]

MattP is scum.

Why?

[Grimgroove]

Because of something CrashTextDummy once told me: he's only made posts that are easily fakeable for scum. Most of his posts hint at him being town, but nothing screams it.

And I just really disliked 1092. It's either something that belongs in a game theory topic, or in his head. But not like this. What does it add to the game? I was talking about whispers before, but this post SCREAMS that MattP is very carefully molding his pro-town image. Problem with this post: it implies his long-term survival in this game (because this is not a short-term plan). This implication is at odds with the impression he's giving as being a strong town-presence.

And even though I was high, I still think I'm on to something when it comes to his connection with Malakittens. But that only matters after Malakittens flips, which I feel is a piority over MattP's flip.

[Wisdom]

How does it have anything to do with his long-term survival? He just wanted to try it right then, which he did. He didn't say that he's planning to do it later in the game.

That said, you might have a point. Matt has only played twice with me, one was my third game onsite and in the other was my worst scumgame ever. He doesn't know anything about me, yet he has been very weirdly confident in me being town. It's something that has been troubling me.

[Wisdom]

On that note, I also very much liked how penguin didn't just go "ok Wisdom-town, Matt-town, blah blah" like scum would most likely have, but actually did not understand what's so town about Matt and only put him as likely town due to me and others thinking that is the case.

[Wisdom]

btw a Mala/Matt scumteam could explain the whole wiki thing that looks so out of character for Mala. They most likely talked pre-game; maybe it was Matt's idea.

But those are speculations. Let's see Mala flipping first.

[MattP]

You think I tried to get a townread on my scumbuddy with her threat to replace out?

[Wisdom]

Why not?

[MattP]

Why not?

You don't seem to have any idea of my playstyle or human essence in general

[MattP]

What a shame

[Whiskers]

You think I tried to get a townread on my scumbuddy with her threat to replace out?

You wouldn't have gotten a townread from somebody threatening to replace out in any

other

case.

[MattP]

Le sigh

[MattP]

Well I'm glad this happened actually, now Wisdom is human just like the rest of us

[Wisdom]

Why not?

You don't seem to have any idea of my playstyle or human essence in general

Well, I don't. Which is why I don't see why you wouldn't do it. And I won't exactly take your word for it.

Anyway, this is pointless until Mala actually flips scum.

[Whiskers]

Le sigh

Wow, good refutation!

Let me just go ahead and ignore everything you say from here on out.

[MattP]

There was literally no response to give to your matter of fact useless point

[shos]

You think I tried to get a townread on my scumbuddy with her threat to replace out?

Why not?

Why not?

You don't seem to have any idea of my playstyle or human essence in general

Oi, boys, boys boys...

now how can you explain to me the OMG SUPER FUCKING HARD BUDDYING(yes, I'm calling it that way) between both of you gamestart? earlier you guys said, oh, wow, we can read each other like an open book, I can tell if he is scum by the smell/noises/color?/lol of his farts. now...well..you don't seem to have any idea about me, or my play style, or anything at all, oh and you suck, and even if I screamed in your ears dude I am scum laughing at your face you might think that I'm a dolphin.

.....I highly doubt that you guys are scum together. it doesn't make sense to draw sooo much attention gamestart as a couple, bloc, whatever. this incoherence here tho - it makes me think that what happened earlier was scum truly buddying teh fuck out of someone, and that someone just felt so convenient being called town for this reasons, while saying that we know each other(based on a probably not-so-long-ago game together, I assume?).

Now I've been on and off wisdom this day for liike 500 times. and I am now kinda flipflopping on and off too on matt, considering whiskers arguments (which make sense) for mattscum and my own reasons from last week for matttown...

so IMO we should keep this in mind for later. Firstly, a mala lynch would do. almost nothing at all in her posts makes me nod, and there's plenty that make me headdesk/nosekeyboard/punchscreen.

now let's go back to reading because don't I just love catching up -___-;
also I have no idea how that happened but apparantly I joined a normal x)

[Wisdom]

What you just quoted wasn't buddying, it was me considering Matt being Mala's partner. Try actually reading the game.