NY 167: COMPLETELY NORMAL Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Cephrir]

Not sure I like orc's leap onto the Sak wagon... looks pretty desperate to me

No shit, Sherlock! You'd be desperate too if you were clearly about to be lynched!

[Guyett]

well that depends on if I'm scum or pr or vt...

[Guyett]

like it looks like he's been throwing shit around to see what'll stick

[Cephrir]

Incidentally, thanks for popping in and towning Mara, that was super.

@Guyett: No it doesn't

[MVP]

His early read seemed to be purely based on Bauss' meta read. When we asked him why he was scumreading orcinus a few pages ago he said it was based on orcinus post-claim play and didn't mention reasons for suspecting orcinus prior to the claim.

Correction: My own meta read, not bauss's, as I mentioned here:

You have meta with me...

I do too.
And you're either playing really really lazy or you're not town (or both).

-L. J.

I like your pre-hiatus play better.
So step it up.

-L. J.

And there were no reason for my suspicion on orci because, you know, I didn't had any on him. I just had him as null and just watched him prior to our second vote on him:

10. orcinus_theoriginal - Null (from lazyfuck)

[goodmorning]

less words

Votecount 1.66

orcinus_theoriginal [L-2] - likeabauss, Hermy, RadiantCowbells, MVP, yessiree, Guyett, Sakura Hana

Sakura Hana [L-5] - MC Maraca, orcinus_theoriginal, Cephrir, PeregrineV

Guyett [L-8] - caledfwitch

caledfwitch [L-8] - Angry Frat BROs

likeabauss [L-8] - JacobSavage

Not Voting [3] - TheIrishPope, sangres, Toomai

With 17 alive, it takes

9

to lynch. The day will end in (expired on 2013-11-21 09:39:00)

[Guyett]

actually Orc has been scum reading Sak all game... forget my earlier statement that it looked desperate.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

will make my reply to stuff tonight

[Toomai]

Theory question: If the deadline runs out, is it better to let no lynch happen and allow things to sort out, or to lynch the heavily-disputed PR claim and at least get something out of the day?

[RadiantCowbells]

Is it better to lynch scum or not lynch scum.

>Toomai 2013

[caledfwitch]

Toomai from the games I've played most people just do the lynch and use the flip against their scum reads the next day

[JacobSavage]

Its better to flash wagon someone who isn't going to be sorted out pretty quickly

[likeabauss]

LIKE, I ISO'D YOU AND I STILL CAN'T FIND IT

BUT OMGGG

I saw a post, where you were griping on how everyone just suddenly accepted my read on TIP

BUT THAT'S BECAUSE I BACK UP MY REASONS

AND, I HAVE HAD GAMES WHERE I HAVE HAD TO FIGHT FOR HIM ANYWAY

so, you aren't alone in that "why won't anyone listen to me when I'm right" department

831. I backed up my reasons. That's some pretty serious insight into Rank. Why are people saying I haven't supported my Rank meta read? Should I link you all to all the different games we played together? WTF would that prove. How do you prove something like what I'm asserting? I just don't get it. I know I can't make anybody certain of it like I am just by linking some games. I understand that 100%.

I've heard your reasons for TIP reads, stuff like "Town TIP is something that Scum TIP hasn't been able to replicate" And so on. Great, but none of is ground breaking analysis like you're suggesting. Its nuance, but I acknowledge you know his game and read him well. You and nacho, along with a couple others. So, you're both town reading him, I trust that. Its a leveraged read for me. You (as scum or town) can say TIP is scum or town, and I trust it. I saw TIP get lynched as scum in under 3 pages of a game, D1. I didn't see it, but they did. Sometimes you trust the reads of other people.

Rarely am I the guy with a rock solid read. I'm generally the beat em up, feel them out, catch a slip, fight like a bastard, type of player. So this IS unusual for me, and part of the reason why I wanted to push on FratBros first. But that flopped, and I cant ignore an obvious (to me) scum slot.

Rank has NEVER subbed out on a D1 of a game with me, ever. Here, recently, we hydra'd and drew a scum role. He was MIA for the first couple days and I got into a rhythm without him. He didn't want to ruin the rhythm and so he basically had 3 posts all game. He talked about not reading the role PM to avoid knowing our scum mates. He didn't read/post in the QT to avoid the top of mind awareness of associations/disassociations. He wasn't worried about letting me down as hydra partner, he was worried about letting the team down. He knew the game was tight, he knew we had to go to the end game, and he wasn't confident in our ability to get there if we drew any extra heat. He doesn't like the lying/hiding and knew I was on a good course, so he backed me up with his town skills.

He likes the mystery of figuring out the game, scum hunting, trying to figure out night moves. He helped me immensely doing just the same, but there was an obvious tell in it all... after drooling for a hydra scum role, he essentially bailed on me. He left me to post/fight the whole game through. Now, he helped me strategize, but he did it with the mind of a townie that didn't have all the info. So, it was invaluable insights but it came from his strength... being of a townie mindset. Ranks phenomenal as town and a great PR holder... he never gets NK'd until 3-4 nights in. Rarely gets mislynched. Knows how to rally votes and build town blocs, etc. Its his forte. Scum game, is the opposite.

Meta proof of above, Shadows and Lights Mafia.

As town, Rank is way more active and engaged. Even when he's busy.

[sangres]

MVP, what do you think of #1989? It's pretty much the only reason we're contemplating not voting orc today.

[Toomai]

Is it better to lynch scum or not lynch scum.

>Toomai 2013

I asked a generic strategy question that may apply to this game, not one tailored to the specific situation.

Reason being, I need to know whether it's a good idea to make sure a lynch goes through even if I disagree with it, under the pretense that no lynch Day 1 does not help town.

[yessiree]

Cephrir, I'm just going to point out that your recent posts reek of horseshit.

Also, I was expecting to see come content from PeregrineV's catch up posts but lol why the fuck did I get my hopes up.

Have a nice day i'm off to shitty labs.

What were you looking for?

let me instead tell you three types of scumbag drivers that invoke my roadrage

1) drives in-between two lanes like nobody's business
2) plays zigzag on highways
3) driving while on phone

[yessiree]

I believe we are competent enough to make the decision without info from flip and night action

[Cephrir]

I believe we are competent enough to make the decision without info from flip and night action

I believe we are so massively incompetent that neither the flip nor night actions will resolve our general stupidity, but we should still lynch over nolynch on principle.

[Ms Marangal]

I SAID SUM CASE ON US AND CEPH

[MC Maraca]

I SAID SUM CASE ON US AND CEPH

Whelp

No stupid achievement for me.

I am on my phone but I will come back later today. I get your meta read on rank but that isn't what I asked for

[Cephrir]

I wonder if a player has ever been discussed this much in a game after replacing out within like 5 posts.

[likeabauss]

I SAID SUM CASE ON US AND CEPH

You said like 10 things. I'm doing the best I can, as quickly as possible... I've got a bunch of crap going on.

I posted about Ceph like twice. There is no case, just a gut read. And its discounted because of bias.

On you, Cabd failed his "Logic" midterm exam and his thesis on "contradictory behavior" left something to be desired, but I need to spend some real time heating you two up. I'm thinking that'll be D2 due to time constraints.

[likeabauss]

Somebody said Varsoon was in MVP hydra. MVP hydra said "No." Do we believe Varsoon is a head there or not?

[likeabauss]

AP = Angry Pidgeon = head in FratBros hydra = head in BirdandBeast hydra = Correct?

[MVP]

MVP, what do you think of #1989? It's pretty much the only reason we're contemplating not voting orc today.

Benefits of letting him live for another day:
-If town, we saved ourselves an investigative role, but his credibility will always be questioned (with the exclusion of other confirming PR's)
-If town and gets an inno, we get a clear but it dies anyways (unless we protect the clear and lynch/let the scum NK the cop)
-If town and gets a guilty, we can lynch the guilty

Cons of letting him live for another day:
-Potentially (not necessarily) lynch a town player because he claimed cop
-If scum, we just let him get away and he now gets to muddy the waters
-If scum PR (which isn't a given), he gets to use his ability
-If scum, we don't know the validity of his report(s)
-If scum, he can work with his scum-team to stay alive as long as possible and possibly endgame us, especially if the scum-team is experienced
-Regardless of alignment, we're mitigating the usefulness of associative information from Day 1

How do we determine when/if he dies? If he's scum, how do we know and will we be able to get him lynched?

Things you need to consider:
-This is not a quantitative argument. 6 is not necessarily better than 3 and it's mostly conditional.
-This is a closed set-up.
-Asking for cc's could just as well be rolefishing and may not necessarily confirm the validity of his claim.
-SK claims and cop claims are completely different animals because killing the SK helps fulfill the town's win condition. SK claims also don't bring WIFOM with them.

Regarding leashing:
-We would have to choose his targets for him (this can be a huge benefit if he's town)
-Multiple targets can be given to him if we fear his target might get NK'ed
-If he's scum, all his reports are WIFOM and we've fucked ourselves
-We always have the option of a no lynch, but this gives scum an opportunity of a free NK (2 if we need to avoid mylo later) in exchange for giving up an opportunity for town to lynch scum (or save a town PR depending on how you look at it)
-If newbtown are left in control, they can fuck it up


-As far as I know, our slot still thinks he's scum
-This post was written without a stance because people need to make this decision on their own
-If not Orc, then who?


~Pete (totally not Varsoon)