NY 167: COMPLETELY NORMAL Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Cephrir]

I suppose it's as good a game as any for me to try to move away from reads lists. As I've said in other places, I find them to be juvenile, even though they're useful.

[Cephrir]

I made a reads list in a private QT. So I get all the benefit of organizing my thoughts, but I don't get to share them all either! Sadface.

[likeabauss]

I made a reads list in a private QT. So I get all the benefit of organizing my thoughts, but I don't get to share them all either! Sadface.

Share your scum reads and reasoning if you like.

[Cephrir]

I'll share the parts of my leaning-scum section that I don't have a reason to withhold. I assure you, what remains is not awe-inspiring.

LEANING SCUM
Guyett- a little scummy, but didn't deserve all those votes
[REDACTED]
caledfwitch- lurker extraordinaire
JacobSavage- [NOTE REDACTED]
[REDACTED]

[MC Maraca]

I've stalked you and rank playing together, I've read your TV hydrae games.

This is you subtly suggesting that you understand and know me. And it positions you as informed about my play and style. What is the real purpose of this statement? I know that you have read me.

This statement was made entirely to convince other players that they should trust your opinion on me. You slid it in at the end of a completely unrelated point (your checklist usage.) You're actively setting up to discredit me rather than explore my lines of thinking. This is highly anti-town and likely scum.

I can't see another scenario.

Especially from you

.

WRT the bolded I thought you'd never played with the cabd-head. Now all of a sudden you can tell me what you'd expect from it?

You actively ignored me when I brought up that your statistical basis for your read was flawed, and you proceeded to ignore me. Generally posting a checklist calling a plan dumb tends to grab more attention.

Your "rank must be scum because he replaced out" theory has several holes in it, and you're telling us that we should just sheep you onto it. I don't sheep flawed logic.

And I DO want people to understand that I feel your logic is flawed. Because it is. So yes, consider this an attempt to discredit your logic because I feel it's not correct.

[likeabauss]

MC Mara... Do you trust your partners read on TIP? And on what basis? With any limits? Do you ask her to justify or explain it each time or is her track record substantial enough that you take it with little more than a question?

You knowing me and Rank, and our history, should give you reason to strongly consider what I'm saying. Instead, you are dismissing it. Facts: Rank and I have a long tradition of playing mafia together. We each have deep knowledge of the other.

My opinion/experience on and with Rank is better developed than any other player here. Why cast it aside so easily?

While I briefly described a piece of why I know Ranks slot to be scum, there is far more to it than I even took the time to explain. Surely, somebody like yourself with a deep understanding of mafia, wants to explore it. No?

[likeabauss]

So townies, here's what is likely to happen... A momentum push of some kind again. I'm digging into some sore spots I think, and there's going to be a flurry of posting activity to push right past the stuff I'm posting. You can watch it fly by, or you can pile some votes onto FrayBoys and increase the heat. The scum team is worried now because if I can convince enough people to hang one of FratBoys or Orcinus, I get doc protected overnight and tomorrow lynch another mafia (the other one.) That puts them in a really really bad place.

That's why we are seeing Mara come out and discredit me (not the logic of an argument.) If I get some cred, its trouble. Mara knows I'm a strong player. We've got a couple games together of the same alignment (both town and scum) and we won them together. That's missing this game because Mara is scum and instead of valuing the input of a strong player she likes, she's position against it.

I'll be a bit lighter on activity for the next couple days, mobile only, so forgive the typos and any shit formatting. But I'll try to keep the heat on and contribute what I can.

[MC Maraca]

Do I fucking look like mara to you?

[MC Maraca]

So let's go with your logic:

1-Replacing out day one is a scumtell.
2-Rank enjoys day ones.
3-Rank replaced out day one.
4-Rank's slot is scum.

So since the actual data totally disproves (1) why should 2-4 still be valid? Do you have some evidence of this you can cite?

[goodmorning]

many things afoot

Votecount 1.29

JacobSavage [L-4] - sangres, MC Maraca, orcinus_theoriginal, Cephrir, Hermy

Guyett [L-5] - PeregrineV, Sakura Hana, TheIrishPope, Angry Frat BROs

Angry Frat BROs [L-7] - likeabauss, yessiree

Hermy [L-8] - RadiantCowbells

sangres [L-8] - Guyett

orcinus_theoriginal [L-8] - MVP

Not Voting [3] - JacobSavage, caledfwitch, Toomai

With 17 alive, it takes

9

to lynch. The day will end in (expired on 2013-11-20 09:39:00)

[MVP]

"Cabd: "hell, mc maraca is a two lady hydra of justice""

Yes you do

And Guyett you can't even tell which head I am in Shiny

But now people know I'm in this hydra but not which head I am here so it doesnt matter wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

\o/

[MC Maraca]

Hi notscience.

[MC Maraca]

And oi, i'm the prettier girl.

[MVP]

Don't be coy, you knew I was in this hydra.

[MVP]

So let's go with your logic:

1-Replacing out day one is a scumtell.
2-Rank enjoys day ones.
3-Rank replaced out day one.
4-Rank's slot is scum.

So since the actual data totally disproves (1) why should 2-4 still be valid? Do you have some evidence of this you can cite?

Cabd go sit down at the corner and have yourself a timeout.
Because this post reeks.

#1 is not the first logical step of LTB calling rank's replace out and you know it.

-L. J.

[likeabauss]

Do I fucking look like mara to you?

Is Mara not a head in that Hydra? Cabd and Mara? Correct me if I'm wrong. My apologies if I am.

You reframed the logic instead of answering my questions. If I'm the most knowledgeable guy in the room about Rank, why was your first reaction to discredit? If you were town, why wouldn't you push on Orcinus instead of discredit my argument? Do you have such a strong town read on that slot that you instantly thought "No way, Bauss is scum and/or retarded." I mean, its D1 and us townies need to find scum. All you did in this instance is discredit a potentially valuable read (or piece of info about player/slot) instead of exploring it.

[MVP]

LTB's calling Rank's replace out scum*

[likeabauss]

Since we are informing the player base of your knowledge/opinion of me:
"Well that was certainly fun to watch. Bauss played a damn good game from an outsider's POV" - Cabd from Newbie 1386

I played scum with Mara in that game. With Rank, TIP, and Nacho as town. You can't act like you don't have a recognition or appreciation for my skill as a player. And from that perspective or understanding of you, your reactions/behavior don't jive (the stuff I'm questioning you on that you won't answer.) That means you're not town. You're scum too. I just don't get why you and FratBoyz thought it wise to try and defend Orcinus from me (directly and indirectly.) Is he a special scum role holder? Role blocker maybe? Is there potential for a godfather in this setup?

Updated reads:
FratBoys scum (he didn't even laugh at my GTL joke, he tried to defend against it. Only angry scum doesn't laugh at Jersey Shore jokes.)
Orcinus scum
MC Maraca scum

[Angry Frat BROs]

BRO head doing some quick catchup:

Did anybody notice FratBoys jump in to defend Ranks replacement when I started in on it? Why not let me flame and dig? Why defend a barely contributing slot that is just getting into the mix from another slot that hasn't done much? Oh, scum buddies. That's why. Discredit the Bauss, try to save a teammate. Prevent discussion. Redirect attention. Oh look, shiny Guyett! Hes ready to rollover, PUSH.

So it’s scummy for us to point out that you’re using the same shitty logic on Orc as you’re using on us? The fuck are you smoking.

Mr. Bauss, you haven't really given an initial reason for scumreading AFB IIRC. You just started from that assumption and are now painting them as scum. Orci was never in trouble here though, so I find your last statement to be an exaggeration.

Considering that my experiment seems to have failed, I'm considering dropping the act and changing accounts.

Remember why I started bussing you in NY165, because you were doing this as scum to EddieFenix?

Does this read the same way as your push onto Eddie, because it is for me.

Policy lynch? Naw
That's only for stupid players (RC)
This is for a bad player (Guyett)

…Same thing.

because I read 678 and 795 in order

Sheeping shitty logic. #1 player, right here.

Sorry been busy recently.

I don't think I can get behind this guyett lynch because 1. I don't seen it 2. He doesn't seem like a bad player in my expereience.


Expect more when I get home tonight.

And that catchup is where?

Pistol Pete Maravich? I hope.

FWIW, this read is a bit bullshit and I feel bad for it, but I can't ignore it. That said, here's the deal with the Rank read:

As a player, Rank doesn't like being scum. But he loves being town. His scum game isn't that good, and it's less exciting for him. But, the best part of the game for Rank as town? D1. He loves it. I love it. We thrive on it. D1 reads and lynching is what separates the men from the boys in our opinions/world. We have probably hundreds of hours bullshitting and talking about D1 reads, psychology, sociology, profiles, maneuvers, etc etc. It's LITERALLY the highlight of the game for us as players. And the source of much bragging or shit talking in post game chats.

So, Rank's early play seemed townish to me. There wasn't much to go on, but it seemed typical. He stays light until stuff develops (much like I do), dropping the occasional potshot or poking the bear when he sees a chance. But him replacing out? 100% scum move. As town, he'd have lingered, read, contributed when he could and stuck around through D1 at least. Bought some time. As scum? He wouldn't want to gimp his team, he'd bail quickly and early to give them the best chance at victory. Which he did here. Town play doesn't require as much activity as scum play to be successful. You read, you think, you post, and come and go as you can. Example: Rank just recently detail read a 100 page D1 of a game in under a 24 hour period and started slinging reads and opinions instantly. Why? How? It was D1. SuperBowl Sunday. Bases loaded, 2 outs, full count, down by 3 in the bottom of the 9th.

Rank's slot is scum. But, I picked up on the FratBoys scum slot before Rank's, hence why my vote is on him and why I want to lynch FratBoys first then Rank's slot second. Some details on my FratBoys read coming up...

I’ll believe you if you link me every game Rank has ever replaced out of and they are vast majority scumgames. If you’re going to push a numbers-driven tell, have numbers to back it up.

Your theory about this slot advocates a(n)

( ) insightful

(X) interesting

( ) uncommon ( ) crazy

approach to reading it. Your method will not work. Here is why it won't work. (One or more of the following may apply to your particular idea, and it may have other flaws which vary from player to player)

( ) Scum can use it as a blank check to hide.

(X) It is just as likely to get false positives.
(X) It does not account for other potential reasons to replace out
(X) Your solution speculates as to motives not apparent to everyone
(X) Your theory requires us to treat you as confirmed town
(X) My read disagrees with the slot being "obvscum"
(X) WIFOM says the player would have known you'd do this if it was scum
(X) Anyone could fake the result they want since it's only your word

Specifically, your plan fails to account for

( ) Lack of confirmed townies
( ) Timezones
( ) The claim from that slot
( ) Ease of planning a response in advance assuming scum daychat
( ) Asshats
( ) Nobody trusts you
( ) Unpopularity of new gambits

(X) The existence of already successful scumhunting tactics

( ) Susceptibility of newbtown to fall for it as well
( ) Willingness of players to give you a chance
( ) People who hate your play
( ) Scum safeclaims given by mod

and the following philosophical objections may also apply:

(X) It could just as easily be WIFOM
(X) Ideas similar to yours are easy to come up with, yet none have ever
been shown reliable

( ) Any scheme based on opt-out is unacceptable
( ) Flavor Gambits suck

(X) Why should we have to trust you and your methods?

( ) Incompatibility with the current player base
( ) Feel-good measures do nothing to solve the problem
( ) Revealing info does nothing but assist scum
( ) Killing them that way is not slow and painful enough

Furthermore, this is what I think about you:

(X) Sorry dude, but I don't think it's a viable tell.

( ) This is a stupid idea, and you're a stupid person for suggesting it.
( ) Nice try, assh0le! I'm going to find out where you live and burn your
house down!

Still makes me laugh ^_^

See line 1. He's challenging the basis of the argument, the means if you will, not the end. His phrasing and word choice is not saying "I'm town, you're retarded" it's saying, "Your argument is retarded/baseless, therefore I'm town." This is a window into what's going on inside his brain. Proof or GTFO is a common response from scum when called out. As if anybody ever really PROVES that somebody is scum on D1, without night info, or hard line evidence. But the psychology that manifest from a perspective of town or scum in this situation it is dramatically different. That word choice was confirmation for me that he is scum. After the clues I picked up on previously that made me suspect him. I've pegged other players on this site with methods like this before.

So me saying, “I’m town, you’re retarded” is going to be more effective in revealing to you that I’m town than breaking down why you’re logic is bad…

This is another window inside his brain. He's openly insinuating/stating that the scum aren't posting, as he's only got 1 scumread from the active player base. But this is two fold bad:
1) It's easier to setup a lynch on the less active, less vocal players. Derp Derp. Scum.
2) He's directly and indirectly demonstrating/validating/supporting a behavior that he's using to mask his scummy taint. He's not afraid to post a lot, be vocal. He's behaving that way. And he's also stating that the scum in this game are NOT posting a lot and being vocal. It's a complimentary maneuver. (this is the psychobabble)

This is a good theory and all, except:

1) I’m town, so it’s not setting up mislynches.
2) I’ve never said that activity is alignment-indicative. What I’ve said is that I’m townreading almost all of the active players in this game. That you’re trying to spin that into the first is a blatant strawman.

I'm not a fan of how quickly the votes for Guyett built up. Too many, too quickly. And some of the people voting for him aren't all that town-y to me. I didn't like Guyett's self-vote, but it could just be irritated/panicked town.

RC has decided to go lurky for a few days, and waited for suspicion to be drawn to other people.

I'm liking orincus as town right now.

Hermy will post a nice and detailed reads list whenever she motivates herself to go check this website on her computer, as she does not have the willpower to do so on her iPod.

I'm not a fan of JS's ISO, and I'm townreading near enough the entire wagon.

VOTE: JS

These are a lot of great positions, but do you have reasons for any of them?

Oh boy, I finally got one townread I am reasonably confident in! I was actually thinking about drawing up a reads list before post 842 happened with likeabauss on top of it, mostly due to my overall lack of conviction this game, but damn that moonlogic (there's a better word for this I know) is so town. And this is not the same as towndrugs, because his reasons are not ludicrous. town, town, town, town, town.

I want to talk about this :/

So let's go with your logic:

1-Replacing out day one is a scumtell.
2-Rank enjoys day ones.
3-Rank replaced out day one.
4-Rank's slot is scum.

So since the actual data totally disproves (1) why should 2-4 still be valid? Do you have some evidence of this you can cite?

:/

You’ve conflated his two cases.

Still like Guyett for scum. Also don’t like RC trying to lurk out the pressure. JS is my third scumspect right now, but that’s a fair bit weaker. Want to flesh out with Ceph why he’s townreading Bauss because I’m seeing parallels between what he’s doing here and what Ceph did in NY165.

[MC Maraca]

You've asked me to follow your lead on Rank, but before I could even post you decide that my partner is me and call us scum based on what I am supposedly doing?

[orcinus_theoriginal]

Angryfratbros deserves rope. Dude replaced into a slot that bailed out very early in the game. Townies don't tend to bail that early. They see what shakes out, read, and dive back in as time allows. Scum however has a team counting on them, working a strategy, and there's more pressure on a scum slot to be involved/present.

I'd just like to put this here.

[MC Maraca]

I realize that you and Rank are like two peas in a pod and that you are AHMAYZING at reading him, but even then there is still the possibility that you could be wrong and the fact that you are basing it off something so basic as "him replacing out means he is scum" isn't enough for me to drop Rank/APro down to scum.

I am well versed with TIP, but I have been wrong on him before and my mistake has gotten him mislynched before. Nacho would also attest to being able to read me superbly well, yet he's mislynched me more times than I could count on my hands, as well as wrongfully defended.

I'm all for psychobabble, though I don't think Rank replacing out is alignment indicative. I don't really believe that at all, and it took three people asking you for a case on him to actually make it.

You fail to bring up possible IRL issues that could lead to him replacing out. it isn't always game related things, and yeah he enjoy's playing town, but that doesn't mean he can't have a slow start nor does it mean he will be superbly awesome by the time D2 comes around.

[MC Maraca]

you also know that, I'm not afraid to bus and would probably do it in this situation as well so

considering that I havn't posted in the last 24some hours, why are we scum?

[MVP]

MVP is a collection of people whom i dont know the identity, so idk how to read them and im treating them as a single entity instead, * null leaning scum.

...
Either your reasoning is missing at the "*" that I marked in the quote, or you're scumreading us because you don't know our identity.
Which one is it, Sakura?

-L. J.

[MVP]

you also know that, I'm not afraid to bus and would probably do it in this situation as well so

considering that I havn't posted in the last 24some hours, why are we scum?

So let's go with your logic:

1-Replacing out day one is a scumtell.
2-Rank enjoys day ones.
3-Rank replaced out day one.
4-Rank's slot is scum.

So since the actual data totally disproves (1) why should 2-4 still be valid? Do you have some evidence of this you can cite?