Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[Grimgroove]

Reading up now. I figured out how to do this. I wrote down all of your names on a piece of paper, and will now read through the topic. If I read posts of yours that make me think something about you, I'll write down what it is I think. And then I'll compile those thoughts in a summary of 1 or 2 lines, which will be the output you'll see.
I won't be making any references to specific posts, too tedious and given there will be no extension time is money. But I'll try to put a vote down and you'll get my promise/guarantee it will be a thought-out one.
After that catch-up, consider me in the game and feel free to interact with me directly, based on my reads or with questions that seem pertinent to you.

[Grimgroove]

So I reached page 6. What I got so far:


Main topics were:

The Miller Claim

First off: I believe it. Post 18 I was almost sold, but then fferyllt's 36 sealed the deal for me. I find a gambit highly unlikely.
When it comes to the reactions to this claim:
I liked: fferyllt, notscience, ChannelDeliBird, Spyrex, CrashTextDummy (even though several people voiced different opinions on the matter, the way they put forward arguments sounded town-intentioned)
I disliked: Aeronaut, Kazekirimaru

Aeronaut's vote on Brian and his tone

I agreed with it being quite scummy, both tone and the vote.
I liked fferyllt's response to it and the way she probed Aeronaut.
I didn't like Kazekirimaru's initial push on the matter, especially because he was focussing on technicalities like Aeronaut making some mistake by quoting the wrong post.
I did not like Smudger's reaction to it.

General notes on players so far:

Liking both SpyreX and fferyllt as obvious town, already after 6 pages. The 133 and 135 really made me sorry I wasn't there at the time. Would love to become part of their town-affair and form some kind of love-triangle. I had the EXACT same thoughts as fferyllt in 133 when reading that discussion, and had the EXACT same feelings as Spyrex in 135. Beautiful.

Which brings me to both Garmr and notscience. both read like town to me. Garms I had written down "well-intentioned newbie". notscience is living up to the town-meta I think I know of him, a bit self-involved but I liked his moderate reaction to Garmr's case.

ChannelDeliBird always looks cranky. At least in the beginning of the game, but also while I was posting high. Somehow, I can't match "crankiness" with scum. You can say it's an emotion that's a null-tell, but I just can't wrap my head around cranky scum. His doubts surrounding the miller-claim seemed very pro-town and the way he talked himself out of policy lynching a miller felt very genuine.

Aeronaut, not liking his opportunistic vote on Brian. During the fallout of that, his defense was focussed on pointing at others ("they're doing the same") and on technicalities. Not feeling good about that slot, saw he replaced out but didn't see anything from SleepyKrew yet.

CrashTextDummie read very opportunistic to me at first, both by asking for more rope for me while I was how I was, and by taking such a strong stance on "lynch all millers". But after reading his explanation on why he thought millers should be lynched, I ciould see town motivations shine through it. I like how he found the inconsistency between the Wiki and what Brian was saying. It's something you'd only be looking for as town thinking you can catch scum.

Smudger (now Lolwagons) is my biggest scumread so far. His posts are off the beaten track, but without really leading us anywhere.
On top of that he stalls ongoing debates by questioning what normally should not be questioned from a Town PoV, namely their (the ongoing discussions') use. Not constructive at all.

Plum wasn't participating in the game yet by page 6.

Maestro was neither, I was genuinely surprised when I saw his "waaaaat"-post. Felt like a post of some out-of-game-observer.

Brian Skies: I believe his claim and I said why. Not much to add to that.

Kazekirimaru (Peabody): Not as sold on him being scum anymore. While I did not like his reaction to the miller claim (contradictory) and to Aeronaut's vote (opportunistic), the top of page 5 was a game-changer for me. There he really took clear stances for clear reasons, looking all the better for it. Maybe I should get ready putting that A4-paper in some blender.

More later. But already quite some townreads to show for only 6 pages

[Grimgroove]

My lynchpool for this daystage will be, partially based on PoE, in order of current preference:

Lolwagons, SleepyKrew (apart from what was mentioned above about thier predecessors, not liking their interaction (Lolwagons still being Smudger at the time) at the second half of page 7/page 8, maybe it's confbias talking but this reads like a play between two scum, where one can play "Mr. Why U Townread Me?", which always scores with the ladies, and the other one can come out unscathed because his fluffy interrogator allows him to)
Plum (bad gut feeling after his big entry-post)
Empire (still no read at this point, so he still is an option)

And I'm extremely surprised only one of them currently has a vote on him.

Still reading-up, but I feel strongly enough about it to already express my intentions in this regard.

[Grimgroove]

SleepyKrew' interactions starting from page 7 read like a protracted effort to appease, but not at all genuine.

VOTE: SleepyKrew

I already know I'll want exchanges with this person.

[Grimgroove]

@mod

Can we see sample Miller, Mafia Goon and Serial Killer Role PMs?
No clue if that's actually allowed

Nice try

, but no lol

Hmmm.
Not sure if I should do this, but this does read like a mod-town-interaction.
Hrm. But the request itself by sleepyKrew is scummy. There was simply no way of getting those samples from the mod. Asking it feels like it's more for show than for result.
Continuing catch-up.

[Grimgroove]

Suddenly, I'm starting to wonder about Brian Skies.

While fferyllt made a good point about a newer player not enetering a game with a gambit like that, I suddenly wonder: Is he a newer player?

Remember the inconsistency between the Wiki-page on Miller-claims and Brian's explanation of why he did it and what he was thinking when doing it.

He said he read the wiki-page, but CarshTextDummie gave reasons to believe he didn't: the thing Brian was referring to was not formulated in the Wiki in the way Brian formulated.

If Brian was speaking out of experience, rather than out of wiki-reading, it means he's not a new player at all, but faking to be one.

The reason I ask this is because I had a painful experience with someone faking to be a newbie and coasting through the entire game with it. (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=29135, SunnyDays pretended to be a newbie but wasn't)

I want reassurance that Brian Skies is effectively a newbie. I'm putting my strong townread on him on hold until that time.

Regardless of these reservations I don't think Brian Skies should be lynched today. The way I understand it once a Miller-claim has occured, there's a form of natural selection that transpires, sparing us from having to do heavy-thinking.

[Grimgroove]

(and my two main scumreads being on his wagon also helps in my leniency)

[SleepyKrew]

SleepyKrew' interactions starting from page 7 read like a protracted effort to appease, but not at all genuine.

VOTE: SleepyKrew

I already know I'll want exchanges with this person.

Let's exchange.

CrashTextDummie read very opportunistic to me at first, both by asking for more rope for me while I was how I was, and by taking such a strong stance on "lynch all millers". But after reading his explanation on why he thought millers should be lynched, I ciould see town motivations shine through it. I like how he found the inconsistency between the Wiki and what Brian was saying. It's something you'd only be looking for as town thinking you can catch scum.

Read the last line
Then read my post to CDB about his ns read
Then apply that to this

@mod

Can we see sample Miller, Mafia Goon and Serial Killer Role PMs?
No clue if that's actually allowed

Nice try

, but no lol

Hmmm.
Not sure if I should do this, but this does read like a mod-town-interaction.
Hrm. But the request itself by sleepyKrew is scummy. There was simply no way of getting those samples from the mod. Asking it feels like it's more for show than for result.
Continuing catch-up.

Why was there simply no way? We already have a public VT PM. What's the harm in trying? Saying I'm trying to look like I'm doing something but not actually doing something doesn't work if I'm also doing lots of other things (which you say aren't genuine, but still acknowledge I was doing)

Regardless of these reservations I don't think Brian Skies should be lynched today. The way I understand it once a Miller-claim has occured, there's a form of natural selection that transpires, sparing us from having to do heavy-thinking.

Yes that's called making the Miller dead

[SleepyKrew]

Everyone died ;-;

This post makes me think notscience is town. You'd think it was an easy thing to say but I've been burned recently by scum who just sat back and observed nothing happening while nothing was happening.

I really don't like the reasoning for this read. IMO:
Generally, when a game is low on activity, coming in and questioning and pushing discussion etc is protown. Just lurking along is generally scummy. Don't you think if he truly cared about getting activity up he'd be more active and more thoughtful and perhaps putting more effort into the game? Don't you also think that something like this ("he's town for commenting on lack of activity) is something that should be judged using a player-by-player case-by-case basis? Do you know that ns hasn't doesn't or wouldn't do this as scum? I don't think you do.

CDB did you address this?

For Gg (and still CDB too)



Also,.I didn't remember that both my parents are home today, so I'll probably have to put Peabody research off until tomorrow. Sorry :/

[Grimgroove]

Don't have much time left and won't be online anymore, but to already address one point: you're putting my townread on CrashTextDummy into question, right?

I don't think it's something scum would do, no, going to look at a Wiki-page to find an inconsistency.
Why? Because scum wouldn't expect even in the slightest to find one. So why bother?

That's where my townread on CTD differs with CDB's reason for townreading notscience: CTD showed genuine town-motivated activity.

notscience did not show activity, only the motivation.

That being said, I also think notscience is town.

You seem awfully preoccupied with questioning townreads, SleepyKrew? Getting too cramped for you?

[ChannelDelibird]

More a bit later but, Skrew, I did respond.

[SleepyKrew]

More a bit later but, Skrew, I did respond.

Oh thanks

I really don't like the reasoning for this read. IMO:
Generally, when a game is low on activity, coming in and questioning and pushing discussion etc is protown. Just lurking along is generally scummy. Don't you think if he truly cared about getting activity up he'd be more active and more thoughtful and perhaps putting more effort into the game?

I think it's more helpful to the town to come in and question and push discussion etc in that situation, but I don't think that means that just saying "everyone died ;_;" is not something also done by town. From what I've seen of notscience, I wouldn't actually necessarily expect more pushing than that.

Don't you also think that something like this ("he's town for commenting on lack of activity) is something that should be judged using a player-by-player case-by-case basis? Do you know that ns hasn't doesn't or wouldn't do this as scum? I don't think you do.

I haven't done a thorough examination of all of notscience's games and I'm not going to for fun reasons. I'm using my limited anecdotal experience with him and a recent reminder from another game of how scum prefer it to form a hypothesis, which does the job of answering the question to myself of "would I be OK to lynch notscience today?".

No further questions at the moment.

[SleepyKrew]

Don't have much time left and won't be online anymore, but to already address one point: you're putting my townread on CrashTextDummy into question, right?

I don't think it's something scum would do, no, going to look at a Wiki-page to find an inconsistency.
Why? Because scum wouldn't expect even in the slightest to find one. So why bother?

That's where my townread on CTD differs with CDB's reason for townreading notscience: CTD showed genuine town-motivated activity.

notscience did not show activity, only the motivation.

That being said, I also think notscience is town.

You seem awfully preoccupied with questioning townreads, SleepyKrew? Getting too cramped for you?

You're addressing the wrong part. Do you think checking the wiki is something specifically

CTD

hasn't doesn't wouldn't do as scum?

Yes this one vote on me with no support from anyone else makes me really nervous
I'm def not questioning townreads that I think have been explained with questionable reasons
That's too high level for me

[CrashTextDummie]

I didn't think your vote was bad. I was just making a point. I don't understand why Aero got the flak instead of anyone else.

If you didn't think my vote was bad, why did you single it out? Who should have gotten flak instead?

Why do you have a town read on Plum?

[fferyllt]

While fferyllt made a good point about a newer player not enetering a game with a gambit like that, I suddenly wonder: Is he a newer player?

I asked Brian about his mafia experience in the first game I played with him. His answer is here.

[CrashTextDummie]

Grimgroove has improbably rehabilitated the YYR slot, [...].

Grimgroove feels great - high, but super proactive in a catchup read. His scumhunting drive feels pretty convincing.

Are we even reading the same game? Cause every joke post of his made me want to lynch him a little more.

Plum, how is Grimgroove "super proactive in a catchup read"? Even 4 days in, his catchup read doesn't seem to have advanced past page 10. And what about his scumhunting drive feels convincing to you? At the time of your assessment, he had a grossly hyperbolic case against Kaze and a bit of OMGUS right out of DGB's book of scum. I saw a drive to put on a show rather than a drive to scumhunt.

My lynchpool for this daystage will be, partially based on PoE, in order of current preference:

Lolwagons, SleepyKrew (apart from what was mentioned above about thier predecessors, not liking their interaction (Lolwagons still being Smudger at the time) at the second half of page 7/page 8, maybe it's confbias talking but this reads like a play between two scum, where one can play "Mr. Why U Townread Me?", which always scores with the ladies, and the other one can come out unscathed because his fluffy interrogator allows him to)
Plum (bad gut feeling after his big entry-post)
Empire (still no read at this point, so he still is an option)

And I'm extremely surprised only one of them currently has a vote on him.

Still reading-up, but I feel strongly enough about it to already express my intentions in this regard.

A single post by Kaze was "game-changing" enough for you to reverse an "obvscum" read. 4 pages later, you're confident enough to narrow the scum down to 4 people. I'm finding it very hard to take your reads seriously.

Suddenly, I'm starting to wonder about Brian Skies.

You were "almost sold" by his ISO #3 and Fferyllt doubting whether a new player would make such a gambit "sealed the deal". You are now questioning whether he's a new player, which I can see "unsealing the deal", but I don't see how it affects the basis of your alleged read. Please explain your thought process.

To be honest I'm really not certain how to undertake this catch-up. I'm in it for fun and browsing through 25 pages and taking miticulous notes on everyone simply isn't going to happen. Normally I like to be precise in communication but it would be too tedious to cover all those pages in my usual style.

What about this game is giving you trouble exactly? This is not a particularly strenuous game to replace into, there's more than plenty of one- and two-line posts to balance out the modest walls.

The manner in which you've elected to structure your analysis strikes me as dubious. You're moving through the game at a snail's pace, all the while insisting on a deadline extension. I get portioning a read-through upon replacing in, but not in a game of this size. Meticulously giving reads after having read 6 pages of a 30 page game is completely over the top. It screams "look at how comprehensive my thought process is!". There is very little pro-town benefit to most of what you've contributed so far, because you've demonstrated twice now that even your most strongly worded reads are far from solid. The only real benefit to your manner of posting is that it tends to garner town reads, providing strong scum motivation to do so. I've used similar tactics as scum in the past and it works remarkably well (and is easy to pull off to boot).

If you are town, you need to stop what you're doing, spend an hour and a half reading the full game and

then

give your reads.

[Empire]

At lunch right now, will be back at my computer in a couple of hours, have a lot of stuff to talk about.

[fferyllt]

grimgroove, your read of me is so different in this game from our one prior. I'd expect a course correction of sorts, but 1) my play in this game is quite different and 2) it's a really huge course correction.

[pitoli]

Time until deadline: (expired on 2013-10-17 00:00:00)

[fferyllt]

Because I didn't want a page 5 lolwagon to accidently hammer.

To you, ffery, CDB:

One bullet. Who dies.

What is your answer to this question?

[LolWagons]

Expect a fairly big post coming tonight, I plan on rereading later, particularly with emphasis on the last half or so of the game.

[Plum]

o/ woo jewish

Supa Jewish yo.

Ugh, I just read a lot of information in a short amount of time. My reads require some isos, but I'm pretty confident in these town reads: Fferylt, SK, Plum, CTD.

People who are surprised, raise your hands.

I didn't say much against it at the time - somewhat demoralized, I guess, and a difference of opinion that was rooted in a theory disagreement seemed unlikely to sway fferylt, for instance.

You might be surprised. At any rate, should he getto day 3 with little in the way of results, it should be a red flag for whatever town players are in the game at that point.

I hope so. One of the things a strong player can in theory do better as scum is worm a way out of such things. I guess not much more will come of this specifically today, but noting it for the future greatly increases the chances this mindset is properly taken into account.

88 I just noticed a crumb here. I might be wrong, as I don't see scum trying to bait a CC to the neighbor role to pull that shit on a scumbuddy (but if I go into this more I'll wifom myself to death)

Confused what you mean by this - could you reword it or something?

CDB, - What's wrong with pushing things I think look weird? I will admit that I am pressured to push something but I personally think the SK coaching thing is good to push if I were to push anything at this point without my iso analysis.

Whut. You make long, neat, link-filled posts debating with one of your Townreads about something that doesn't have bearing on the scumreads you're purportedly working on. Yeah. Great.

Oh I should of mentioned those reads are in order. You moved down to scum number two.

... If there's one thing I loathe, it's reads lists with very slight changes that don't have bearing on the poster's approach to the game (e.g. votes, pressure) presented as content. Garmr, what are you doing/why does this matter?

Liking both SpyreX and fferyllt as obvious town, already after 6 pages. The 133 and 135 really made me sorry I wasn't there at the time. Would love to become part of their town-affair and form some kind of love-triangle. I had the EXACT same thoughts as fferyllt in 133 when reading that discussion, and had the EXACT same feelings as Spyrex in 135. Beautiful.

Are we even reading the same game? Cause every joke post of his made me want to lynch him a little more.

Plum, how is Grimgroove "super proactive in a catchup read"? Even 4 days in, his catchup read doesn't seem to have advanced past page 10. And what about his scumhunting drive feels convincing to you? At the time of your assessment, he had a grossly hyperbolic case against Kaze and a bit of OMGUS right out of DGB's book of scum. I saw a drive to put on a show rather than a drive to scumhunt.

His initial page or so - drugged up though it all sounded - felt like someone with no information enthusiastically reading and commenting on the game. The joke posts themselves didn't seem to me very indicative of alignment, but the posts against Kaze certainly felt like this. The more recent, formal stuff is a whole different kettle of worms. It lacks the brash, confident, non-appeasatory approach - in fact, it feels like the effort went into being appeasatory at the cost of being useful overall. It's very bogged down in is-it-or-isn't-it minutiae and covering every possible base and every possible page and making sure to update his readlist every time. In this it seems I agree with you - past the time I posted, Grimgroove's stuff has indeed looked considerably scummier.

Need to eat, try to clear my head, hopefully see what LolWagons and Empire have to say. Spy too, for that matter.

[LolWagons]

Sigh wtf is this game.

Upon my reread I decided i had a townread on Kaze but Peabody went and fucked that up the pooper, then I had a null-scum read on YYR and GG came in and made me rethink that.

I find GG's play more of an obnoxious "focusing on the trees and cant see the forest" type of play but I really like some of the things he is picking out and paying attention to. I (obviously) don't agree with his overall thought process but certain details he has picked up on (such as the mod-SK interaction...something I noticed and debated whether reading into or not) feel much more likely to come from town. I need more before I can read this slot in full, but I like the direction its going, though hate its mode of transport.

I also don't like NSs play, I think its also fucking obnoxious, and I really really wanted to agree with Spyrex's logic of "he only voted me after a wagon formed on me" because getting rid of a strong town player in a neighborhood with just you as newer scum would of course be ideal as scum, but I feel like NS-scum would have the foresight to know that would bite him in the ass because spyspy was going to claim eventually, and then where does that leave NS? Scum dont like 1v1s even under that amount of pressure.

Garmr's obliviousness to the NS/ Spy debacle makes me think if one of them is scum he almost surely is not, I feel like if there were pre-game chat, which I think was allowed in the neighborhood if i recall correctly, then Garmr would know via a scumbuddy relaying that information to him who was with his scumbuddy in the neighborhood (its fair to assume if the neighbors got pre game, so did the scum).



CTD and FFer are still very strong townreads to me, nothing changed here. SK is trailing slightly behind, and Garmr slightly behind that (this ones mainly gut). Somewhere in all this I lost my leaning townread I had on Plum.

That leaves 8 people.
Spy, NS, CDB, Plum, Peabody, GG, Empire, Brian Skies.

I don't want to touch the neighborhood today. I still think the emotions that came from both sides of that were pants on head retarded but also relatively hard to fake. I think
1. They're both more likely to be town (both due to OLD site meta I need to chec up on or just be corrected on and scumhunting reads)
2. We can give them more time together to sort shit out and garner more info from them
3. There's no way they're both scum, and assuming my townreads are right and three scum there are still 2-3 scum left to be found in

CDB, Plum, Peabody, GG, Empire, Brian skies.

That's where I have to quit tonight. I'll sleep on it and go from there tomorrow., probably much earlier in the evening than tonight because I realize a deadline is approaching.

[notscience]

88, I noticed a crumb.

It makes me think he's town, unless he planned an elaborate scum gambit to get his scumbud to claim neighbor and make him "conftown"

[Plum]

I don't see why scum wouldn't crumb per se (not sure what there is to lose, for one thing), but that does clarify what you meant, thanks.