Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[Garmr]

Aghh there we go this will get me back in tune. Well I didn't like the fact Brian went silent for a large portion of the game 143 to 319. His response to the wagon is nullish pretty much saying please lynch me. I got him as a null read claim aside and still think a Kaze lynch is a better lynch.

But sleepykrew If you don't want to develop a read how are you going to make a good case to conveince others.

[Kazekirimaru]

Garmr

Confirmation bias is bad.

You need help <3

[SleepyKrew]

Some people are scumreading him and some people agree with the utility lynch

[fferyllt]

I don't think I've ever been in this situation before.

I have. Both as the miller and as the townie trying to sort things.

The only time I was lynched as miller was a game when I was un-self-aware and cop-investigated. That was pretty funny in retrospect.

Different sites. Different site meta.

I mostly haven't run into omgday1lynch in the handful of MS games with miller claims that I've played here.

Discounting the claim, I can see why Brian's play so far today isn't getting rave reviews.

Here's his one completed game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=31267

His day 1 was different, but pretty shaky in its own way. As an added bonus, this is also my most recent scum game. I replaced in as Morph the Cat hydra a couple hours before day 1 ended with a quickhammer. Nearly all the day 2 and 3 posts were mine.

[Empire]

Empire- Leaning scum. I really hated the read on me for 2 reasons. 1) That was a game that doesn't even define my town play, just look at all the people IN SAID GAME saying it wasn't. 2) I'm strong town for all of like 10 posts and a tell that's easily fakeable?

1) Meta does not work the way you and most other people think it does.
2) Jesus christ, if I had a nickel for every time I've had to hear this argument. I've read people as town or scum off way less (one of my proudest achievements on this site was correctly scumreading MagnaofIllusion after his first post in Marketplace Mafia II) -- getting strong early tells is not that hard (and no, it's not that easy to fake).

This one is better. As grandiose and impressive as his entrance is; it feels wrong to me at second glance. Miller claims...they draw attention. On their own they're null; but here they drew scrutiny faster than shouting "I'm Scum!" at the top of your lungs would ever be. Yet one of Empire's big reasons for voting SpyreX is because Spyre believed Miller claims aren't a shield. Well, they aren't. They may give you an excuse for returning guilty investigations, but in reading some games, Millers are basically a stigma. A Scarlet letter, if you will. There is no good advantage in claiming a Miller(This is my final muse on the subject of Millers.)

But, I digressed a bit. Despite all this, Empire still used his opinion to the contrary as a point to vote SpyreX. I don't like his reasoning. It looks like a mislynch push, and it seems to be working to an extent. I dislike it.

Uh, this is a pretty big oversimplification of what I was saying. I'm not voting SpyreX because he holds an opinion to the contrary. I'm voting him because I saw the

reasons

he put forth as bullshit. And read my last post, millers don't draw as much scrutiny as you'd think they do. I'll pull up the links tomorrow when I'm more awake of the two games I mentioned where scum cruised to endgame on a miller claim despite "drawing scrutiny" in the beginning.

[Kazekirimaru]

I've a question

@the peeps in favor of a Brian lynch:

Do you want to lynch him because

You believe him to be scum faking miller

or

because you don't want to have a miller in lategame(perhaps even regardless of his alignment)?

[SleepyKrew]

Hey Emp do you wanna help me make sure the miller claim is dead and isn't just talked about

[Kazekirimaru]

I'll pull up the links tomorrow when I'm more awake of the two games I mentioned where scum cruised to endgame on a miller claim despite "drawing scrutiny" in the beginning.

Please do. Thanks in advance.

[Empire]

Actually, I'll just provide the links now: Micro 34 and Disney Villains Mafia.

[Empire]

I'm not sure what song and dance you're up to, still, but it stops now:

I'm in a neighborhood with NS. Without tipping my hand entirely, considering that its a night-only neighborhood and "the meta" as well as personal experience this lended me to believe far more in an NS town than scum. I said this before the game started - as well as suggesting the crumb and trying to bait a fake neighbor claim in case one of us died.

Hmm, need to think about this as this looks pretty town from SpyreX.

Meh, I have some questions about it, but I think it's probably better if that claim just simmers for a bit.

Unvote

- probably need to do some reassessing here starting tomorrow.

[Brian Skies]

@SK: That hurts my feelings a bit. But if town can find the scumteam off my death, then so be it. You already have my claim, so town can just lynch away.

It'd be great if you started scumhunting HARD and pushing questions etc
Maybe make this game a little higher priority yknow?

I'm not a Day 1 player, and it's not like I've found anything for me to latch onto without being redundant.

Buuuuuuut, I'll keep my eyes open. Sorry for not being the town miller you were hoping for. =(

Also, I'm pretty dead-set on Fferyl being town. She's poking other players, trying to make good reads based off of meta, and isn't looking for easy lynches.

[Plum]

Spy - I rarely if ever like to make strong assumptions about buddies Day 1. I don't have a strong assumption on you/Kaze buddies or not. It's more than plausible enough to to make me feel like it's not worth not voting one of you because I think the other one is scum and you

can't

be buddies.

As for not voting Aero its almost like I said why back then. The wagon didn't need "steam" - it needed the opposite, in fact. It needed to not be in a position where a hero speedballed it out of control without other things happening or a teehee self hammer. And, of course, its kind of hard to hammer from on a wagon.

Uh huh. And in Post #183 when you reaffirm that you definitely want Aero/SK lynched, there was a grand total of

one vote on SK

.

Seriously. Seriously.

I can see why the neighborhood would make town-NotSci freaking paranoid.

Except he wasn't - until there was a wagon.

Meh, people questioning unearned (or seemingly unearned) townreads on themselves usually reads Townish to me, and in this scenario NS reads that way to me. And paranoia about your Neighbor buddying up to you is pretty valid, as that's probably the more likely scum approach by far. That said, not sure what this says about you. Town-town Neighborhoods probably are considerably more common, but not sure that it's to the point that someone being a Neighbor brings the chances of being Town above baseline. If you made your statement about that belief about the ratios to NS before Day 1 started, though, seems kinda null on you in and of itself.

But, the post is squiffy. With the phrase "entirely too coincidental", he suggests that Brian's miller claim is a direct result of the RVS lolwagon, but votes Aeronaut.

Hmm. Time to reevaluate. Initially I read his vote as the most innocuous on the Aero wagon because he seemed like the player most likely to legitimately miss the issue of the blatant, attention-grabbing vote being potentially super counterproductive for scum without enough benefit. And Post #145 seemed very good at the time. Just a quick ISO. Meh. Torn between the observation on Kaze not going after (+townreading) Spy being good thinking and him not having a vote or scumread or producing anything else of value. The one good

and

proactive bit to my mind was the Kaze vote.

[Empire]

And he was coached to that degree of detail, say you?

Assuming I'm getting what you mean when you say "that level of detail", it doesn't take much in the way of detail or even competency to suggest to a newer scumbuddy to play up the martyr factor. I know I used to give general counsel like that as scum offsite all the time and I'm awful as scum.

Though I have to say, Empire's reads post is somehow not as comforting as I'd like. I guess I expected at least one read that goes in a direction I wouldn't anticipate.

Well they are what they are. Sometimes my reads are boring but that doesn't make them any less right when they are.

---

Going to bed now, so I can't finish catching up right at this moment. Just leaving a note to myself here that I'm at page 21, full catch-up should be done tomorrow morning.

[Empire]

Oh and some food for thought re: the Neighborhood. I just got out of a game with two Neighborhoods (Wingate Mansion) -- one of them was a three person, all-town Neighborhood while the other was a four person Neighborhood with 3 scum. Not sure what that means w.r.t. a Neighborhood of two people as this is the first time I've seen it in a game but it might be worth thinking about?

[SpyreX]

The sentiment is entirely mutual. At least I got a kick out of you giving me, of all people, a lecture on your pedigree. I have a bit of experience myself, and your theory stances are simply incompatible with mine. But you've presented them with enough conviction at this point that I can see them not being scum-motivated.

This entire conversation is reminding me more and more of spats I've had with The Fonz, who I've spent pages arguing with because we have a knack for getting under each other's skin. I'm beginning to feel that we may have just started off on the wrong foot and I'm inclined to give you the benefit of doubt.

There is a world of difference between incompatibility and asinine. And it wasn't a e-peen contest, it was stating that I'm not fresh and it needs to be treated as such. But, yes, lets dial back and kill each other like civilized folk.

Spy - I rarely if ever like to make strong assumptions about buddies Day 1. I don't have a strong assumption on you/Kaze buddies or not. It's more than plausible enough to to make me feel like it's not worth not voting one of you because I think the other one is scum and you can't be buddies.

Thats not what I'm getting at. If me changing my vote is suspect

why would I do it as scum

? If I'm scum, every interaction is for a reason. There isn't a good one there because I'm not.

Uh huh. And in Post #183 when you reaffirm that you definitely want Aero/SK lynched, there was a grand total of one vote on SK.

Seriously. Seriously.

What does that have to do with the initial post?

I literally don't even know what the argument here is anymore. I also don't care. Summarize whatever is going on here so it can be addressed finally or I'm just disregarding it.

Meh, people questioning unearned (or seemingly unearned) townreads on themselves usually reads Townish to me, and in this scenario NS reads that way to me. And paranoia about your Neighbor buddying up to you is pretty valid, as that's probably the more likely scum approach by far. That said, not sure what this says about you.

Town-town Neighborhoods probably are considerably more common, but not sure that it's to the point that someone being a Neighbor brings the chances of being Town above baseline.

If you made your statement about that belief about the ratios to NS before Day 1 started, though, seems kinda null on you in and of itself.

Its like I said before. Context.

If NS was showing reservations from the beginning - because this was said before the game started, sure. This only happened

once a wagon formed

. That is not a coincidence.

And your underlined... what? The 'baseline' is already in swing of a random player being town - I make reference to that being a general default. The 'baseline' of Neighborhoods is, by a margin, more likely to be town. Enough that I'm willing to roll with it until otherwise proven. Like this game.

Its not like he was given the keys to the castle forever. Its a start. Carving out via probability is pretty common. And I'll never, ever in a million years call 'ok, you're probably town, lets plan for baiting a fakeclaim in the event someone dies' buddying. I wasn't asking to cuddle up and read his diary, ffs.

But this is piggybacking the other business and really is a lot of words to say NS is somehow town for his timing and I'm 'null' for mine. Which is nutterbutters writ large.

@all

This Brian wagon makes me very sad all over. SHAME.

[SleepyKrew]

Then make us go somewhere else. Your last post was entirely reactive. Be proactive if you want something to change. BE THE CHANGE YOU WANT TO SEE IN THE WORLD

[ChannelDelibird]

Prod-dodge; catching up with a bunch of games tonight so you'll be hearing from me shortly.

[pitoli]

Searching for a replacement for YYR.

[CrashTextDummie]

I have some business with Kaze, but I need Empire to post first.

I ponder what business that would be.

Ponder no longer.

- Yeah, kinda. But it's the important point: the issue is with the reason he has a vote on someone. If I find flaw in voting reasoning, it feels good enough to me to throw a vote on them. Townies are supposed to be thorough when they profess to seriously vote someone. Scum however don't need to put as much thought into their votes. They know who scum is, they just need to mislynch town. So if a person like Empire makes a grand entrance, explains verbosely and at-length about their vote, and appears to have given thought to their selection - yet I still find their vote reasoning fundamentally flawed? It looks like posturing to me. Vote. You best believe I'm throwing it down.

The reason I asked you about your Empire suspicion is because his Spyrex case was very similar to my own, including the part you took offense with. And if that's the only reason you voted him, I have to question why you weren't bothered by the argument when I made it.

--------------

SleepyKrew, is there a difference between a utility lynch and a policy lynch?

--------------

Plum, any reads on someone not named Spyrex?

[SleepyKrew]

SleepyKrew, is there a difference between a utility lynch and a policy lynch?

In some cases, yes. In this case, no.

[notscience]

I could be swayed to vote brian, probably.

[SleepyKrew]

Hey ns how come you didn't express any suspicion of SpyreX until the wagon started?
Or did you and I just missed it/forgot?

[notscience]

Ffery had part of the reasoning.

When I found out I was a neighbour I instantly looked it up on the Wiki. I instantly thought scum-town, but I wanted to give him the chance to try and prove himself. When I got into the QT, he seemed a bit too into the whole town-town bit. All a neighborhood is is a night connection between 2 players. We don't know each other's alignment. But, he seemed all too ready to townread me which really bugs me.

[SleepyKrew]

Yes but why didn't you say anything in the thread about this until the wagon started?

[notscience]

Because I initially wanted to try and keep it a secret but then paranoia got the better of me.