NY 165: A Large Normal (Game Over!)

penguin_alien · Post Post #5825 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 6:55 am

Why do you think Serene was an SK kill? Not following, sorry.

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #5826 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 6:58 am

Just makes sense. SK needs to be killing mafia at this point. Not sure why anyone would think Ank was mafia.

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #5827 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:02 am

Bleh, I need to actually apply myself but if its 1:2:2 then there is basically no point.

I need to ISO everyone here.

I think we should try and lynch mafia over SK in case its 1:2:2 but Im having a hard time seeing a town win in the scenario regardless.

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #5828 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:03 am

Still think Jacob is scum of some sort.

Inclined to think Shadi is town atm.

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #5829 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:08 am

PA, why did you decide to vote RC yesterday?

JS, why do you think Ank and Serene died?

penguin_alien · Post Post #5830 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 8:23 am

In post 5829, AngryPidgeon wrote:PA, why did you decide to vote RC yesterday?

JS, why do you think Ank and Serene died?

RC throwing out absurd accusations at Serene, the way RC came into the thread with so many ideas that seemed to come from a non-thread source. I would have voted RC the day before, but I was too sure Stubbs was scum independently. RC's posts just didn't come from a town roleblocker mindset.

If Mafia didn't shoot for the SK, either they know who it is and believe they can pick him off at their leisure or there's only one Mafia left and they want the SK to win the game for them. Actually, the Mafia should know who the SK is based on blocked kills, right? So if there are two of them, why risk leaving the SK alive now? Although if we mislynch here and go into the night at four, if there are two scum they win.

I need to think through this, but I do believe we have to assume Mafia know who the SK is.

BROseidon · Post Post #5831 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:05 am

Ugh I need to reread and think some shit through. Serene not being the SK implies that the SK just hit the same person as scum/no-killed (possible), RC was lying about who he blocked (possible, although I'd need to think about what it would mean that RC would withhold information that could help town lynch the SK), or scum have a BP/Doc. Those are the three main things that I can think of.

I still think JS is scum, but I don't want to jump the gun on anything. Best case it's 3:1:1 and we need to hit scum, worst case it's 2:2:1 and we need to hit mafia and hope the SK and mafia kill each other.

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #5832 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:08 am

Well we know that RC DID target Serene on the night ThirdKoopa died iirc.

BROseidon · Post Post #5833 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:09 am

We do, but that only explains that night's single-kill. Serene's NK theory for N6 (Rift's death) seems very plausible at this point.

BROseidon · Post Post #5834 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:11 am

Wait, no, that makes no sense.

That DOESN'T explain what happened to the kill that night. SK shot TK, SK NK'd, or the kill didn't go through somehow that night. That's all I can think of there.

BROseidon · Post Post #5835 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:12 am

Are SK's usually bulletproof?

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #5836 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:14 am

In a large like this, almost definitely.

Possible the SK shot at Rift that night.

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #5837 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:15 am

Or mafia shot at the SK and TK was the mafia kill?

That actually makes complete sense.

AngryPidgeon · Post Post #5838 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:16 am

Tk was the SK kill**

JacobSavage · Post Post #5839 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:15 pm

My theory is that someone shot him.

Possibly with a gun.

BROseidon · Post Post #5840 (ISO) » Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:16 pm

Are you going to do anything useful or are you going to try to coast your way to a scummy victory?

penguin_alien · Post Post #5841 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:50 am

...so JacobSavage is likely scum. Possibly flippant SK, if he figures the Mafia knows who he is anyways?

Shadi, come give opinions.

JacobSavage · Post Post #5842 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 3:14 am

I was asked to speculate and I did.

My speculation is probably right.

BROseidon · Post Post #5843 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 3:30 am

Where the fuck is Shadi.

Right now nothing is happening, and if nothing keeps happening I'm going to vote Jacob. Everyone who's had that slot has coasted by in a really scummy way, and it's time to lynch it.

Shadi1337 · Post Post #5844 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:14 am

Serene and AP one of them must be scum, but because of Serene's tunneling (maybe bussing?) on Crab I'm less inclined to go for Serene atm.

BROseidon · Post Post #5845 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:33 am

That's great and all, except Serene died. Are you even reading?

BROseidon · Post Post #5846 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:16 pm

Hey penguin why are you avoiding the thread?

penguin_alien · Post Post #5847 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:19 pm

In post 5844, Shadi1337 wrote:Serene and AP one of them must be scum, but because of Serene's tunneling (maybe bussing?) on Crab I'm less inclined to go for Serene atm.

So if Mafia killed Serene it's unlikely Shadi is said Mafia. Possibly playing oblivious.

BRO, what's your read on AP?

P-edit: I'm not.

penguin_alien · Post Post #5848 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:24 pm

Is four scum plus an SK likely for a 24 player game? With this much town power? Take NY 161: 4.5 Mafia, no SK, 21 players. Less town power.

I'm thinking we're not getting anywhere unless the SK votes with us, whoever else 'us' is.

BROseidon · Post Post #5849 (ISO) » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:27 pm

That post took 3 minutes to type? Wat?

AP is my second strongest scumread right now. My reads right now from scum->town are Jacob-AP-Shadi-you-me.

pedit: If the SK is BP and it's 2:2:1 then the only way for town to win would be to lynch mafia, have the SK and mafia cross-shoot, and then lynch the SK.

I should recalibrate whether JS is SK or mafia. I was thinking mafia before, but with Serene flipping town I need to check that in detail.