Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Mafia - Game Over

[DeasVail]

I liked the other stuff though, and 168 is very entertaining if nothing else.

PEdit: I often don't meta people because it just makes me confused, but I'm finding it hard to see DrDolittle as scum considering his play here and his play in other games. Why is it not a problem for you?

[kanyeknowsbest]

yiou could have just voted him w.o. claiming? it added absolutely nothing to your position on him. like if youre actually town im a lil mad abt it.

[talah]

Anger it up, angrykanye.

I don't "do" meta unless it's shoved in my face and haven't played with Doolittle before.

[kanyeknowsbest]

are you yamichan?

[talah]

No, I'm kurosawasan. What?

[DeasVail]

Anger it up, angrykanye.

I don't "do" meta unless it's shoved in my face and haven't played with Doolittle before.

Oh, I misunderstood, but yeah, I'm usually the same, but essentially he's diverting from both his town and scum meta so much here that I'm more inclined to think town (because scum often try to replicate previous town meta rather than change their play).

[Belisarius]

let's assume 5/21 mafia. then if we get 3 random people, the chance of all of them being town is (16/21) * (15/20) * (14/19) ~ 42.11%, meaning there's more than a 50% chance one out of a random group of 3 people is scum.

Quoth Thoreau, "Simplify, simplify"

The formula I've been seeing in use for determining number of scum in a nonmultiball game is scumCount = (int)(floor(playerCount / 4)), which comes to the same assumption of 5 scum, but with the simpler math, it means that one out of every

four

players is scum; a bloc of three in isolation means nothing.

If you want to try to use statistics to scumhunt, name your fourth. But really, don't use statistics to scumhunt, because that analysis means precisely bugger if this is multiball or there's a SK.

Flavour-wise, either multiball (Federation/Orb/Three Ships, ZAFT/PLANT, Blue Cosmos) or SK (Rau Le Creuset) makes sense, and if either of those are in play, then 5/21 scum is a shit assumption to make.

I think it's pretty likely this is multifaction based on my role PM.

[talah]

I also have a townread read on Matias because his posting has seemed fluid and natural, and I will also town read pieguyn on the basis of having *specifically* townread Matias rather than just having a noncommittal town list of a bunch of unspecified-reason names.

So actual townbloc:

talah | pieguyn | Matias

feel free to add to the list with good reasons. The core will validate your reasoning and return a result.

[DeasVail]

I think both you and wayne are town.

[Empking]

so your vote on Sakura was serious? afaik you just threw it on there with nothing else whatsoever

That wasn't what I was trying to say at all.

To answer your second question: I was expressing an opinion.

[Kalimar]

Limited access until Wednesday

[Kdub]

Day 1 - Vote Count #6

DrDolittle (0)

-

kanyeknowsbest (0)

-

Belisarius (1)

- Kalimar

waynegg (2)

- Belisarius, talah

pieguyn (0)

-

AGar (0)

-

PeregrineV (0)

-

leviathan93 (0)

-

Kise (0)

-

Empking (1)

- dopog

Majiffy (1)

- DeasVail

dopog (0)

-

Sakura Hana (4)

- DrDolittle, Matias, kanyeknowsbest, Empking

NachoKoopa (1)

- pieguyn

DeasVail (1)

- mastin2

Matias (1)

- leviathan93

Mac (0)

-

talah (1)

- waynegg

Natirasha (2)

- Natirasha, PeregrineV

mastin2 (2)

- Sakura Hana, NachoKoopa

Kalimar (0)

-

No lynch (0)

-

Not voting (4)

- AGar, Kise, Majiffy, Mac

21 votes available
11 votes needed to lynch

V/LA: Mac (9/30), Sakura Hana (9/30), Kalimar (10/2)

Deadline: (expired on 2013-10-18 12:44:27)

[waynegg]

Also, do, do, tell me about my scum agenda. In slow motion awesome shocking detail please.

Scum like to argue, that omgus vote is adorable, and that tracker claim is b.s. weak sauce. Love how you're hyper defending that one little vote too. Absolutely adorable. I kill you naw!

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: vote belisarius
bad math is bad

people scared of lynching based on numbers is scum
people who like role speculation is scum
people who have scum pm is scum (ie he probably has 'you win if you zaft superdudes are the only ones remaining or nothing can prevent so')

[leviathan93]

Dont worry, Beli, you've only seen the beginning of Waynegg's insane troll logic.

I've played with waynegg before, and I don't think it's pointless to respond to him.

Belisarius voting to no-lynch in the RVS is a good way to avoid responsibility for his vote, which I've seen scum do in a recent game I played. In addition, I don't like that he votes waynegg for poor reasoning - it seems like on the surface scumhunting and not legitimate.

Vote: Belisarius

^Town

i'm not saying you're scum necessarily. but scum would totally know to call out the person who outed them as scum for these reasonings as a guaranteed town because they know they are actually.

Kalimar made a very pro town post. I think we can agree on that and theres some truth to what he says. It does seem like surface scum hunting. but that could also be the fact that no one is technically sure sure yet. =P

[leviathan93]

Also Sakura is town, I believe his sincerity and genuineness. i doubt its fake.

[Empking]

DRDoliitle is so thinking like a townie it is almost suspicious. His injuring the Sakura wagon isn't great though.

[leviathan93]

So Matias.. how do you like the chances of scumMastin having voted a scumbuddy in his first 'serious vote' of the game?

@mastin - do you think deasvail's vote on dolittle had a lot of meat on it? I wouldn't have bothered voting dv until she offered a reason for it. But I'm open to suggestion.

So, how do you like the chances scum is playing divide and conquer here?

Why I think DrDolittle is scum:

66 strongly suggests that he has a scumread on Sakura/is pretty invested in the wagon, and that his vote in 19 was serious. What I'm wondering though is why he didn't share his reasoning for Sakura being scum. If town are making a serious vote during what is still semi-RVS, they want to show everyone how smart they are and share their reasoning! Despite the resistance to Sakura-scum, he doesn't get very involved in trying to read her or gathering support (Matias and kanye's play around Sakura appears a lot more genuine by comparison). While I do have doubts, I don't think his play is particularly unlikely to come from scum so far either so I'm pretty happy with my vote here.

Wow. So. Right.
Are you saying you somehow reverse-telegraphed your scumread on dolittle, which you first mentioned when his only post was a naked vote?
Didn't I do exactly the same thing as him, in naked voting and then reaffirming that he was a choice vote?

What do you think of mastin?

It's cute when scum try so hard to look like town <3

VOTE: Talah

I think there's a whole lot of town pointing fingers at other town thus far, which would explain how slowly this game is moving. Talah is the only player posting regularly who seems to have a scum agenda. There's been no cross voting. This game is definitely starting oddly compared to any game I've played. It looks like the rest of team scum may be lurking. While it's easy enough to say, scum rarely actually does that so it wouldn't be a bad strategy.

As far as inactives go, neither Yraelz nor Mac have posted even once. I'd be willing to vote either of them at this point, but I'm not holding my breath to get much of a response from them, so Talah it is!

i don't like this vote, but its probably that I have to get used to Waynegg pretty much accusing everyone. DUH its probably town pointing fingers at town. =/ i don't see the scum agenda, but yes he does post regularly which is nice. I usually consider people who post regularly to be more town like than scummy because it gives more chance to slip up. =)

a player may be great and all, but still. more posts mean more chances of messing up. they need to be consistent and not everyone can do that. you'd think that scum would try lurking if they can.

[leviathan93]

also. is there a possibility of a mafia tracker?

[NachoKoopa]

What else are you thinking? What do you think of my reads?

You're the almighty nacho, so i shall... follow your reads I also agree with you on mastin, and the rest of his posts dont dissapoint in that regard.

What do you think of Nastyrasha?

you were stopping people from pressuring Sakura more, when that situation could give town more information.

I was stating that I was prepared to white knight Sakura; I didn't give a read on her and I didn't criticize the push against her and I probably wasn't entirely serious.

okay no
let's assume 5/21 mafia. then if we get 3 random people, the chance of all of them being town is (16/21) * (15/20) * (14/19) ~ 42.11%, meaning there's more than a 50% chance one out of a random group of 3 people is scum. there's probably even more mafia and maybe an SK so the real chance is even higher. IMO, this just shows you're not even trying and are just throwing things around to look like you're doing something.

What motivation would I have as scum to get my math wrong? It seems like something pretty alignment neutral to me unless you suspect that I'm manipulating people with incorrect math or something.

Ok Nacho, do you think Mastin would really be this minimal as scum? I know that if I were to experiment with something like that I'd make sure to do it with a town game and would just do standard 'look as town as I can' as scum and I suspect Mastin would feel the same way.

Sure. If he gets under too much pressure, he can always break the minimal playstyle and people will probably just call it townish. He gets away with doing less, becomes harder to read for people who are familiar with him... scumvantages are actually pretty awesome by saying he's minimal and doing it. I didn't like that he announced it in the beginning.

Also Sakura is town, I believe his sincerity and genuineness. i doubt its fake.

She's usually more genuine than this.

[leviathan93]

How so Nacho? what game can I look at to see that?

[NachoKoopa]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go
There's a good example. Obviously I'm not expecting that level of genuine, but her not responding to her wagon is a red flag.

[leviathan93]

maybe. still not technically seeing mafia sakura at the moment though. there needs to be more from her before I can decide that. She had a lot more posts in the other game than she currently does now.

[Natirasha]

Are you scum reading me nacho?

[AGar]

I am... ALIVE.


I'll be caught up in a few hours. Gotta dope up on pain meds first because fuck my feet.