Mini 1482: Castle - A Mafia Murder So Vile (GAME OVER)

[waynegg]

One formatting fail on the second Serra wagon. Wisdom and Slimer should be green obviously. Not bad for iPad (phone) posting

[Bert]

I am taking my time to get a feel for you Wayne....

your points system is skewed way too much and rewards lurkers from D1/D2 like TNE and AA (D1)...as well as Penguin who was so freakin passive (and absent) D1

OK I like those responses, FG, gut-wise. Makes me feel better, you're trying to figure everyone out <3

I didn't remember much about TNE from D1 other than not liking him. that should say something about his game

So far, I feel pretty good about Mantis as town today, after the flip

I am MIND BLOWN that people are not reading Serra as top scum central because I want him to GET ON HIS KNEES and just concede...

I'm not listening to my initial gut like I should be recently

I'd like to take serra-scum to the BANK. I will not trust him for the rest of this game because of all the heebie jeebies and goosebumps I'm getting.

I will settle for penguin, but peng confuses the hell outta me with his rambling walls.

That's my stance and gut read.

waynegg if/when you get out of your Mantis tunnel who will you be most suspicious of

Serra's bandwagon and vote feels right...I'm free for the rest of the week so I'll be here a lot from now on <3

/end rant

[waynegg]

FTR, my figures aren't skewed. I take it you either haven't played with DGB or haven't bothered to see how her scumputer thing works? It's just a flow chart, but it gives amazing results. Gotta love the cold, hard simplicity of math. Here's a link so you can get better acquainted

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Scumputer

I'm good where I'm at. With VCA, scumputer, the motivation behind Desp's play (what would be the point of dishing a town to just get lynched the next day), the long hesitation to claim though she clearly present in the thread, other connections I haven't even mentioned, and gut, Mantis is my top scum read bar none. There's too much that makes sense for him to be scum and I'm not going anywhere. You can call it a tunnel, but I just barely got off FG to get on Mantis so it's kinda fishy to give it that nomenclature.

[Bert]

I'm glad the scumputer isn't utilized in every game I'm in, because I sheep so much that I would be on atop the score-list in each of my games

[waynegg]

Yeah. Your vote analysis reads more VT than anything else, and is why I'm not voting for you. I'm solid we'll hit scum with Mantis. We're you wanting an ordered list from me from highest to lowest suspicion or something?

[waynegg]

*were

[Bert]

Nope, but that wouldn't hurt.

Currently figuring out what to make of the listed wagons/analysis y'all posted.

I've been doing reconsidering today, that's about it

trying to parse out what I'm feeling about everyone

I get in trouble often because I'm a gut/feeling kinda player

[waynegg]

Gut is great. A lot of times you subconsciously latch onto something you just can't put into words to explain why you feel that way. You'll never hear me bitch about gut. I think it's totally legit.

Mantis->FakeGod->Serra->penguin

That's my order of suspicion, and unless you, Tayter, or penguin (aka town reads) have me fooled, town should be good.

[Malakittens]

4.02

with seven alive it will take four to lynch.

*waynegg -
*Sweet Pertayter -
*FakeGod - Serrapaladin [1]
*Mantisdreamz - waynegg [1]
*Serrapaladin - Sweet Pertayter, bert [2]
*Bert -
*penguin_alien - Mantisdreamz [1]

Not Voting [2]: penguin_alien, fakeGod

Chapter 3 Ends..

Day 4 ends in (expired on 2013-09-24 13:20:00)

[serrapaladin]

How is tater town again? Boy, do I not get your progressions... Didn't you think she was a GF?

[waynegg]

How is tater town again? Boy, do I not get your progressions... Didn't you think she was a GF?

Nat is confirmed Sane Cop...

Didn't you say that wasn't possible in this game? And I thought it was a possibility and asked questions to firm up the result. I gotta drop my paranoia somewhere and results from Nat are are good place to start. Not concerned about one of three possible scum not liking my progressions either. Just makes me that much more happy with where I'm at.

[serrapaladin]

So you're listening to reason now? Colour me surprised. Reread mantis' reaction to being accused yesterday. Did it look like she and desp were in on it together?

[waynegg]

If they planned it out before hand...yeah.

[waynegg]

Other than forcing MyLo, what would scum gain by so aggressively shipping a town yesterday with 2 conf town before the day even started? They had to know with more and more limited possibilities to choose from as players made more town connections, at least one of them has to have town cred to win. Bussing at that point, when town is frustrated from not hitting a single main team scum would be the play to make. That way, regardless of which got lynched one would walk away with that cred.

So, I'll throw that back at you. Look at how aggressively Desp didn't defend himself after I came in and derailed his speed wagon, and take note of how soft he got on Mantis until he finally just stopped posting and let it play out. What doesn't look like their objective was accomplished and one of them walked away with clean town cred.

Then look back at D2 at how hard Wisdom pushed both of them and how much suspicion was on both slots. Now, thanks to Scum play Mantis has instant town cred. Why did that suspicion just evaporate? Thinking like scum, that's the logical play because it gives either enough WIFOM to work with for the win in mylo/LyLo. A perfect play, and it's that perfection that stinks. The uninformed majority is far from perfect.

And before you ask why I wasn't saying this yesterday...we can only lynch one person a day and Desp was the better choice. If we had nailed Mantis yesterday and he flipped scum, everyone would be completely convinced Desp was a Tracker and would be all but impossible to lynch today.

[serrapaladin]

That's not true, though. Mantis flipping scum would have meant Nati was the next lynch. With Nati flipping cop, desp's claim would have been called into question again.

[waynegg]

And he would have had the wifom needed to talk his way out of it, and even if that failed it would just go to mylo with an unknown scum. That puts scum at the advantage to win. As it is, we still have a mislynch to give and have been able to narrow our choices to 3 in order to hit 2 scum. I'm trying not to be paranoid at this point to show Mara, among others, I don't have to be a liability at this point in the game. I'm pretty well locked in to my course of action. Thanks for trying to bring that paranoia back though

[waynegg]

Also, have you ever noticed how much the Imp looks like Luke Skywalker?

http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Luke_Sky ... ilight.jpg

They seriously need to do a little person version of that saga!

[Mantisdreamz]

How is tater town again? Boy, do I not get your progressions... Didn't you think she was a GF?

serra.... why are you asking that, when you've clearly said that tater is conftown several times. how do you forget that? >.>

If Nats is town, tater should be treated as conftown.

Scrap that, if Nats is town, scum have a roleblocker, so tater IS conftown.

Except FG replaced TNE, and I remember thinking desp/tne wasn't possible with the amount of wking. I'll have to reread the both of them together.

I think peng-scum is a go. Desp's gambit makes more sense if he didn't have an easy deflection, which peng could have been.

wayne, what do you think about the tne/desp interaction?

Tater is conftown because there's no godfather. Scum wouldn't have a roleblocker AND a godfather.

[Mantisdreamz]

It's not enough for me to want Mantis lynched today, but I'm not shaking the suspicion there. Especially with the whole disingenuous, "PA is scum, why are people voting town-serra?" If you're town thinking I'm scum, make a case, let's talk.

pretty much the suspicion has carried forward from earlier in the thread, when you were suspecting wisdom. and made a few posts that casted suspicion on his character claim. Wisdom made mention as well, that as town, you'd likely change your mind about him, rather than continuing on with the suspicion.
also, i noticed that you and desp really didn't have a whole lot of interaction... except for right at the beginning, there was a bit of back and forth, and with myself thinking desp was scum, it looked like it was an attempt at distancing on both your parts.

however - serra's latest post where he asks why tater is conftown again, looks pretty bad to me. like saying something for the sake of saying something? i don't understand how he could forget that. very suspicious.

I will not vote Sweet Pertayter--no way are they a GF since, now that we know Nat was being truthful, the SK was apparently investigation-immune. With a likely three-man Mafia team, I don't see two of four scum being immune to the strongest town PR around. waynegg just screams town. I

think

only one of {serra, FakeGod} is scum. That leaves one of {Mantis, Bert} as scum. I don't want to lynch out of the latter set today anyways, and if one of the first set flipped scum, it could still be scum bussing.. Right now I'm leaning serra, but that somewhat depends on what FakeGod comes back with.

why do you not think that serra and fakegod could be scum together?

UNVOTE: penguin
..rethinking.

[artemiskitty]

also waynegg.... you suck!
just in case you didn't see that before : )

[waynegg]

also waynegg.... you suck!
just in case you didn't see that before : )

/out

I'm going to hydra with Mantisdreamz

ArtemisKitty

This.

Assuming caught scum Mantis here : )

[FakeGod]

My reads on a gradient:

Town

FakeGod
Potato
Wayne
Mantis
P_A
Bert
Serra

Scum

I think the remaining scum are

Bert & Serra

.

I'm aware that my reads have been poor this game, but I know that I'm town. With Nati cop flip, Potato is conf. town. I had mollie lean town, and I'm reading wayne as town. In addition, Wayne saw through Desp's fakeclaim and held his vote on him. That's a telling point in my book.

Desp tried to get Mantis lynched yesterday. That means Mantis could go either way, but I think if Desp believed that he really was in a bad position and was willing to do anything, he'd try to get one more town lynched before going down. That puts Mantis above the remaining players.

P_A has put good analysis and shown good game understanding. While analysis and understanding can come from either alignment, the insight she provides is useful enough that I'd lynch her after the other two players.

Bert scumread is coming from process of elimination. I feel that Bert have sheeped most of the game (looking at his voting pattern) without providing much content. In addition, other players have dropped way more towntells than Bert have.

Serra is my strongest scumread. He definitely have been following the game very closely, yet I feel his early game play has been mostly to stay out of people's radar. When he engages, he understands others' reads incredibly well, something I would expect more from scum than town. Also, when he saw me agree with Desp and voting Mantis, he also wanted the Mantis lynch. Throughout day 2, he fenced between the two lynches while calling Mantis lynch "the correct lynch" for the day, followed by a sudden Desp hammer. These actions make sense coming from a scum_serra.

Vote: Serra

[FakeGod]

Serra is at L-1.

[Mantisdreamz]

also waynegg.... you suck!
just in case you didn't see that before : )

/out

I'm going to hydra with Mantisdreamz

ArtemisKitty

This.

Assuming caught scum Mantis here : )

hydra slip = scum?

oh waynegg, you are silly

[waynegg]

also waynegg.... you suck!
just in case you didn't see that before : )

Not the hydra slip, the give up post