Micro 205: Everybody's Being Watched Round 2 (Game Over)

[Shiny Hydreigon]

johhog can join the definitely town next to dart, this confusion was not faked.

@474
the watcher might not use his ability n1 if he thinks scum are going to no-kill. other than that, theres no reason not to.

R~

[Shiny Hydreigon]

for example, in the previous run of the setup, the watcher decided not to use it and more or less gave the win to scum by doing so.

R~

[Dart8000]

The balance comes because if scum no-killed Watcher learns nothing.

Except maybe who's Doctor, if they visited themselves...??

[Shiny Hydreigon]

doctors cant self-protect, dart

R~

[Shiny Hydreigon]

i also just noticed that beli was the first one to bring up the possibility of a no-kill.
given that he was not in the first run, it rubs me the wrong way that he thought of it so easily.
maybe he thought of it because he's actually the scum who no-killed? hm?

R~

[Egg]

dart, I'm looking at the Day 1 mislynch. I said at the beginning of the day I was looking at hydra and bel based on that. Also gut and a general opportunistic yet under the radar vibe I get from bel. Also, you're better off not speculating on Bae's role. A chance for someone to counter will come if needed. No sense outting specifics.

Hydra, I didn't sit down and analyze and think about it. I was posting on the fly and remembering we claimed last game and seeing dart already claimed. That being said, there are still benefits to it. But it might have been ruined by all of the discussion about it.

Joh, why does the chance a VT targets the same as the NK matter when there was no NK? Do you know something we don't about whether scum tried to kill? And the mod discussed balance at the end of the last game, but I don't remember exactly what he said.

Hydra, why can't scum be genuinely confused about odds of targetting the same person?

[Johhog]

oh, why does the chance a VT targets the same as the NK matter when there was no NK? Do you know something we don't about whether scum tried to kill? And the mod discussed balance at the end of the last game, but I don't remember exactly what he said.

What, are you assuming that there won't be any successful kill all game? Eight people all targeting different players means a lower risk of a VT targeting the NK compared to if it's just four people.

[Shiny Hydreigon]

scum would clear any issues they had by asking the mod - then they could possibly attempt faking that they are confused about stuff inthread, but it would not come across as genuine anymore.

johhog's confusion is genuine.

R~

[FuDuzn]

The more I think about it the more I am leaning dart as town, and this head of the hydra seems to be making more sense.

I think I am back on the egg or Beli wagon.
UNVOTE: dart

[Baezu]

Do you have anything you want to say in response to what I said about you, Baezu? An explanation for your behavior?

Why Bel, Egg? He has been the least scrutinized/attention-grabbing player, which is suspicious but not enough on its own...

I can understand if we want to tread softly with Baezu and maybe try and get her scumbuddy, first, but my concern is her noncomittal claim saved her last round and it looks like it will again today. One more day of this and she's home free. Rather than mount a convincing defense she jumped straight to "but I have a power role maybe possibly" and that seems a wiser move for scum than it does for town. Nobody can counter claim because she didn't specify her role. And when everything else she does seems scummy (seriously, ISO her and look at her voting patterns/reads/talk) I'm disinclined to just trust that unvoting her might save our lives?? That said, if she's our Watcher we REALLY don't want her to claim so you can why I would be concerned with pressing her too hard. But she might be counting on our trepidation, so....

My phantom post that has everyone up in arms was basically just going over night scenarios. A Doctor can't be killed unless targeted by both Mafia, assuming the Doctor saves themself. They could, however, be rendered obsolete by the roleblocker. This wouldn't be so bad if the Watcher saw what was going on, but that presumes the Watcher hasn't already watched. And so on. It was a bunch of if-thens and possible scenarios. Basically by the end of it I had decided claiming for either of our Power Roles would be bad, obviously, but it might not be the end of the world if we had a claim from our Doctor. But it would still suck. So.

Was all of that anti-town? IDK. But I've realized we're running short on time and we have a tendency to get distracted with nitty-gritty stuff like this (at least I do) and I thought it might be better to focus on reads and scumhunting rather than go over hypotheticals.

What behavior would you like an explanation for?

I AM NOT COMING OUT WITH MY ROLE UNLESS YOU GET ME TO L-1.

Seriously, how is this post not anti-town? You are TRYING to out the power roles - why don't you just hand the game over to mafia? Dart, if you are town you need to stop tunneling me. I AM TOWN. I swear to you. This is my town game. I know it sucks, I'm a fucking useless player. Hell, I'd vote myself if it didn't explicitly go against my wincon. Take a look at my other games. I promise you you will realize this is baezu-town.

Help me find the scum if you want town to have a chance. Who should I look closer at?

[Baezu]

I've been thinking beli has been scum all game. I'm glad people are finally starting to see it.

VOTE: Belisarius

[Johhog]

Dart, if you are town you need to stop tunneling me. I AM TOWN. I swear to you. This is my town game. I know it sucks, I'm a fucking useless player. Hell, I'd vote myself if it didn't explicitly go against my wincon. Take a look at my other games. I promise you you will realize this is baezu-town.

What a cop-out.

[Egg]

Joh, you seem to be assuming no NK over successful doc. You don't seem to realize you are making this assumtion.

Hydra, I see your line of thinking. It doesn't match mine but I see it.

Vote Bel

The more I think about it, the more confident I am that bel is more likely scum than hydra.

[Johhog]

Joh, you seem to be assuming no NK over successful doc. You don't seem to realize you are making this assumtion.

No, I'm assuming that if there was a doc save, the watcher's ability would still be useless as he wouldn't know if it was a no kill or a doc save.

[Belisarius]

i also just noticed that beli was the first one to bring up the possibility of a no-kill.
given that he was not in the first run, it rubs me the wrong way that he thought of it so easily.
maybe he thought of it because he's actually the scum who no-killed? hm?

R~

Or maybe I, y'know,

read the fucking rules?

Or read or even skimmed skimmed the game linked to in the setup's wiki page?

Mafiascum.net -- where not only is not bothering to be aware of what kind of game you're playing is a towntell for some ridiculous fucking reason, but doing your homework is actually a scumtell.

How much longer can it possibly be before the television debut of "Ow, My Balls?"

Joh, you seem to be assuming no NK over successful doc. You don't seem to realize you are making this assumtion.

For the purposes of catching scum, it

doesn't matter

which it was.

[Egg]

If two people targetted the same person and one later flips doc, there's a decent chance that you've caught scum performing a kill (although admittedly not guaranteed). So if the doc was successful, we do have info. It may not be as solid as we'd like, but it's still there. Like if we are deciding between a couple of people and one happened to visit the same person as the doc on night 1, maybe we go that way. Obviously, it would have to be looked at and analyzed, but it's another piece of the puzzle.

[Baezu]

i also just noticed that beli was the first one to bring up the possibility of a no-kill.
given that he was not in the first run, it rubs me the wrong way that he thought of it so easily.
maybe he thought of it because he's actually the scum who no-killed? hm?

R~

Or maybe I, y'know,

read the fucking rules?

Or read or even skimmed skimmed the game linked to in the setup's wiki page?

Mafiascum.net -- where not only is not bothering to be aware of what kind of game you're playing is a towntell for some ridiculous fucking reason, but doing your homework is actually a scumtell.

How much longer can it possibly be before the television debut of "Ow, My Balls?"

Joh, you seem to be assuming no NK over successful doc. You don't seem to realize you are making this assumtion.

For the purposes of catching scum, it

doesn't matter

which it was.

Insulting us as AtE is not a great way to get us on your side

[Belisarius]

Insulting us as AtE is not a great way to get us on your side

Sure is fun, though.

[Baezu]

[Dart8000]

Not sure Bel is scum.

Looking over his posts, they seem to contain genuine scum hunting. He takes what people say, analyzes it, and overall seems pro-town. I hesitate to say this about people, in case they flip and make me look stupid, but he really doesn't read as scum to me.

[Malakittens]

probz not scum judging by the shitty wagon.

[Dart8000]

Who's scum, Mala? I feel like I don't know your reads. Is there a reason for that? (Just checking.)

For me scum's Fudz, Shiny?, Egg?...definitely Baezu. What about you?

[Malakittens]

Who's scum, Mala? I feel like I don't know your reads. Is there a reason for that? (Just checking.)

For me scum's Fudz, Shiny?, Egg?...definitely Baezu. What about you?

I played with Beli scum before. This doesnt feel like Beli scum. I think you're town.

I'm iffy on the hydra. I'm leaning scum on them.

I don't like Beazu at all.

I also do not like egg.

Fudz is meh.

[Shiny Hydreigon]

For me scum's Fudz

Fudz is meh.

vote him goddamnit

R~

[FuDuzn]

I think I must have pissed off one of the heads on another game.

Hydra, vote egg with me and lets be friends.