Mini 408 - EXiLE Mafia, MOD ABANDONED

[Skruffs]

as for the martyrism, meh, i'll discuss that when we are closer to lynching.

[Raging Rabbit]

To Cheesefan: so I missed a plant, frankenberry...

Frank

BERRY

?!? This immediatly puts you on the top of my suspects list.

To Rabbit: I think your play style is fine and I don't care how much you cuss or attack poeple, because attacking poeple is what the game is about.

Right on! *disclaimer - never ever try to hurt anyone's feelings.*

2. Are we working as a group to figure out nominations or randomly vote hoping the scum looking poeple get up there?

I'd say definitely have everyone state their nominations in advance before going to sleep, after deciding on today's lynch.

I know that this is who the rabbit wants...

I'm actually less suspicions of Ghyrt atm and prefer Romanus to MM.

BTW: I totally wanted the third eye on me and got so dissed be the rabbit and you never did explain the whole thumb and gun thing.

Now that you messed with Frank, you definitely have like 12 eyes on you. Thumb/gun thing - I'm just a special bunny.

I personally think Romanus could have lied about his nominations and gotten away with it, if he was scum. Is that wifomy?

Yup.

This information is there to be examined by anyone; why does bringing it into the open more likely harm us?

QFT

Bunny, I always try to read everyone evenly - if someone is 'running distraction' I spend more time hopping after them and less time following more substantial clues that could possibly lead to more information.

I'm honestly not sure what you're getting at here.

as for the martyrism, meh, i'll discuss that when we are closer to lynching.

I think now that we're all finished tallying the nominations and have a few non-nominees targets it may be time to start discussing the lynch, and the longer you avoid explaining that the more suspicious it looks.

Note: By offering yourself for a random lynch, you're also almost claiming vanilla townie. How on earth is that good pro town play?

[DeanWinchester]

FrankBunny* I profusely apologize. I really don't want to hang skruffs because he wants it. Maybe thats what he wants because he is scum, but I still don't want to give it to him.

[Skruffs]

* listens to dean and aneurisms*


"I think now that we're all finished tallying the nominations and have a few non-nominees targets it may be time to start discussing the lynch, and the longer you avoid explaining that the more suspicious it looks."
Let's discuss what's likely vs not, discuss nominations, and if it turns out one nominated person is probably more likely scum than another (it right now doesn't look like it, to me) than we'll lynch them. Otherwise, why give mafia the chance to get role claims out of four people? You have no idea what I am, Bunny - and why does it even really matter at this point? Shouldn't you be happy that someone's offering to take 'the fall' so that you (And the other two) have more of a chance to make it to the morning? Instead of trying to paint me as scummy and get me lynched 'against my will', we can do what I suggested earlier and play civilized-like.

[Raging Rabbit]

Let's discuss what's likely vs not, discuss nominations...

We've been doing exactly that for the last 12 pages, and while I'm not saying we should stop by any means, I think it may be time to start getting a bit pragmatic as well.

Otherwise, why give mafia the chance to get role claims out of four people?

Now you sound like JDog. The town isn't stupid, we won't let that happen.

You have no idea what I am, Bunny - and why does it even really matter at this point?

You're kinda sorta 1 of the only 3 people available for me to lynch...

Also, what sort of a power role offers himself to be lynched out of his own free will?

Shouldn't you be happy that someone's offering to take 'the fall' so that you (And the other two) have more of a chance to make it to the morning?

If I was completely selfish, yes. I'm trying to look at the town's best interests here, though, and the respected math whiz almost encouraging the town to let him sacrifice himself makes absolutely no sense to me.

Instead of trying to paint me as scummy and get me lynched 'against my will', we can do what I suggested earlier and play civilized-like.

I can't shake the feeling you're trying to buy time to explain your earlier scummy play here.

[Jack]

About the suggestion of information leading to mislynch. The way I see it is, everyone starts the game regarding the others as neutral. With discussion, sometimes scum convince you of their innocence and townies of their guilt. So, you could rightly say that discussion can lead to mislynch. But I think we all agree discussion benefits the town. It's the same way with nomination information. The town wins by making good use of information, more information is better.

[Maz Medias]

Excuse me, I haven't 'done much'? What do you expect me to do except contribute to the thread like I have been doing?

Seriously, what the fuck else do you want?

[Ghyrt]

Alright Bunny, I'm gonna say this as politely as possible. Your long and frequent posts are starting to annoy me and lessen my enthusiasm for the game. In fact, the first thing that came to mind is that you're scum trying to make the town lazy and not read. For the sake of a more enjoyable (and more efficient) game, please stop quoting and analyzing every other post.

[Jack]

Cheesefan

: Seems to take the game very lightly. Joke vote at this stage in the game? Don't see anything particularly scummy, but he's a possible lynch today for lack of contribution.

Skruffs

: I don't like martyrdom but he says he'll explain later. Seems pro town. I will look carefully at his numbers analysis though, he could have suggested the "let's list our nominations" thing because he thought he could confuse us. I don't see how he got Dean from the nominations list.

JDodge

: I didn't like his early "only post one of my nominations" thing. Since then all he's done is pursue RR and talk about misinformation misleading the town. Not liking his play at all. Far too focussed on RR who I'm beginning to think is one of those "lynchable townies" if he is townie of course. He said he wanted to get back on track but he hasn't.

Raging Rabbit

: Don't know. I agree with him on the information is useful side of things, but for one who has argued so strenuously in favor of "information that helps the town" he hasn't done much to provide any. His posting style is distracting as others have said. The biggest point in his favor is the way several others seem to have latched on to him.

Of the four, I prefer a JDodge lynch, with Cheesefan coming 2nd.

Now for the others:

Maz Medias

: I can't tell from his posts if he's genuine or not. But his single minded pursuit of RR is scummy. I mean, maybe RR is scum, but I don't see how MM has reached his level of conviction. He seemed convinced by around his 3rd post in the thread.

Romanus:

Has claimed power role (nom same person twice). Maybe pro town, but has said he used it to narrow down towns choices (!?) and has threatened to use it in revenge. Also votes RR without reason. The biggest thing against him I think is his rather obvious hints about having a power role prior to claiming. They look more to me like scum trying to convince the town, I think if he was really concerned about being nightkilled (this is about the only reason he's given for his vote on RR) he would have been less obvious about it. He could have argued against it without mentioning the power role thing.

Romanus and Maz are my current choices for nomination next round.

Ghyrt

: Don't like his posting. Want to hear more from him. He's much different from the last game I was in him with but I'm keeping in mind that he was I/C there. Also, I was wrong about him that game as I recall...(sorry ghyrt!).

YellowBounder

: One post (!). His vote is a little quick, but the two people he mentions suspicions of aren't bad. I do worry about people who lurk all game, respond to a prod, and then drop one post and disappear again.

TCS

: I was about to say he hasn't posted yet, but it appears he has. I think I'm just going to say he hasn't posted yet though.

DeanWinchester

: Not enough posts for me to make a judgement call, but I like his nomination list he posted. Would like to know what skruffs has against him.

[Skruffs]

Aight so here's the graph (number 2) which I just got done making. As you can see all normal nominations are in blue, except for ROmanus, who is special, and is red. IT hink he'll like that, it goes with his avatar. Similarly, because we can't be 100% sure everyone is telling the truth, fircoal's nominations are in grey.

I'm going to talk about Fircoal, first. Fircoal had two people voting against him, RR, and MM. (coincidentally enough, those are the people who Dodge voted against, but that's pointless to really go into). This is WIFOM, of course, but I will raise the point: Would scum nominate people that they were already going to kill? I don't think so. You might say they could because they wanted to seem innocent, but in effect they are cancelling out their own participation in who gets nominated, which means there's a higher chance of being nominated themselves.

Ghyrt, Romanus, Dean, and yellow bounder didn't receive any votes. that doesn't necessarily mean anything. JDodge received 5 votes.
I think it's pretty unlikely that five out of 11 possible people would randomly pick JDodge. So we look at Dodge and see that Ghyrt, Cheez, Dean, Jack, and Yellow have all voted for him.

What's even crazier is that every single person who voted Dodge, also voted for someone else who is nominated today. Three out of those five (Ghyrt, Dean, Yellow) have no votes against them. And Dean and Jack nominated the exact same people.

So here's my basic sumamry. I have more but I'm effectively done, now, and I'll post my recoup:
Fircoal is dead; he is not scum.
Maz and RR are probably

not scum

because at this point I don't think they would want to risk forfeiting their nominations on a soon-to-be-dead player and risk being nominated themselves.
Romanus, I think, is

not scum

. If it's an optional ability (like I said before) and he's scum he would have no reason to reveal that, he could just as easily lie and not be caught. (It would be almost impossible for an unknowing town to deduce that someone had double votes.)
8 left; five of them voted for JDodge.
Dodge is probably not scum because it's highly unlikely that out of the eight people remaining, six of them most likely being town (though it may only be two, since the mafia has a bigger advantage this game), that five townies decided to gang up (randomly) on the other one.
---------------(sidenote)---------
Even if you don't want to clear bunny and Maz and Romanus, it's unlikely that five out of 9/10 pro town players would randomly pick the same person. Bunny's nomination is due to ROmanus stacking the deck. Me and cheesefan are probably because we picked each other, because we are in another game together, and I think Dodge is nominated because he got ganged up on by scum. It is I guess possible to consider that Dodge is also scum and was nominated today to be 'cleared' in our eyes by the same reason.
---------(end sidenote)------------
Jack and Dean both had the same nominations, were not voted for themselves (except by CS), and in Jack's last post, he put Dean way at the bottom with a kinda impartial side comment. I think that out of what we know about night one that these two would be a good nomination team for the morrow. It's possible I'm missing something, or that theere is more information that I didn't consider, but that's what the facts are telling me.
(I'm not a math whiz, by the way. I'm just trying to help. I'm more than willing to have people interpret the logistics themselves... this is all just me saying how *I* see it and I am sure I don't see the whole picture)

Note : I was up way too late tonight, hope this doesn't ramble too much

[Cheesefan]

A kind of varaion of jacks post

1-10 scale. 1 is certain town, 10 is SCUMSCUMSCUM.

Cheesefan: Im not gonna rate myself
DeanWinchester:6
Ghyrt:5
Jack:3-2
JDodge:7-8
Maz Medias:7
Raging Rabbit:6
Romanus:9
Skruffs:5-6
The Central Scrutinizer:5
yellowbounder:6

Thats a rough scale of my opinions so far.

[Raging Rabbit]

While I love how the graph looks, haven't read that post yet. Just commenting on the previous ones:

About the suggestion of information leading to mislynch. The way I see it is, everyone starts the game regarding the others as neutral. With discussion, sometimes scum convince you of their innocence and townies of their guilt. So, you could rightly say that discussion can lead to mislynch. But I think we all agree discussion benefits the town. It's the same way with nomination information. The town wins by making good use of information, more information is better.

QFT

Seriously, what the fuck else do you want?

I'd like to see some pro townish behavior other than generally unhelpful suggestion, if you wouldn't mind too much.

Alright Bunny, I'm gonna say this as politely as possible. Your long and frequent posts are starting to annoy me and lessen my enthusiasm for the game. In fact, the first thing that came to mind is that you're scum trying to make the town lazy and not read. For the sake of a more enjoyable (and more efficient) game, please stop quoting and analyzing every other post.

I'm currently discussing with mith what I'm suppossed to do in response to such blatant off-play attacks, so you'll have to be patient. In the meanwhile, you should try searching your soul for any hint of humour still left in you it and use it hard when reading my posts.

Cheesefan: Seems to take the game very lightly. Joke vote at this stage in the game? Don't see anything particularly scummy, but he's a possible lynch today for lack of contribution.

I agree. While his earlier playstyle was perfectly Cheesefan-ish, he's beginning to look a bit too causal. Last post in a great improvment, though, and he's probably my least prefarable cantidate atm.

Skruffs: I don't like martyrdom but he says he'll explain later.

I don't like he keeps saying that.

JDodge: I didn't like his early "only post one of my nominations" thing. Since then all he's done is pursue RR and talk about misinformation misleading the town. Not liking his play at all. Far too focussed on RR who I'm beginning to think is one of those "lynchable townies" if he is townie of course. He said he wanted to get back on track but he hasn't.

QFT

but for one who has argued so strenuously in favor of "information that helps the town" he hasn't done much to provide any.

You may want to back that up with, well, anything. I don't feel like making an "I'm Important!" list for no reason if you can't back that up.

I'll ignore your other assements for now, though I mostly agree with them.

[Raging Rabbit]

Right, the graph:

ROmanus, who is special, and is red.

Yes, he supports the dark side of the force.

I'm going to talk about Fircoal, first. Fircoal had two people voting against him, RR, and MM. (coincidentally enough, those are the people who Dodge voted against, but that's pointless to really go into). This is WIFOM, of course, but I will raise the point: Would scum nominate people that they were already going to kill? I don't think so. You might say they could because they wanted to seem innocent, but in effect they are cancelling out their own participation in who gets nominated, which means there's a higher chance of being nominated themselves.

While I'd like nothing better than to be cleared that easily, I'm not that sure that's the case. Clever scum can always claim to nominate the dead guy, and while the fact that I was the first (IIRC) to publish his nominations does go a bit towards clearing me since I'd be taking a risk to commit to false nominations and be caught in a lie. This is probably gonna take some more mathematical analyzing, but until either of us comes up with something like that I'm not gonna use this as a defence and neiher should MM.

I'm having some difficulties assessing the rest of your points, but my feelings that you're ignoring the option of people lying is similar to my own scenario. While I may choose to comment more on this in a future, more mathematical mood, this measly post would have to do atm. Ghyrt - I fully expect this to make your day.

[yellowbounder]

YellowBounder

: One post (!). His vote is a little quick, but the two people he mentions suspicions of aren't bad. I do worry about people who lurk all game, respond to a prod, and then drop one post and disappear again.

Feeling a bit intimidated with all these posts. I'm not a long poster by and far.

My stance on information is still as it ever.

Side note : POwer roles relevant to nominations
It's possible there are other power roles out there, too - everyone saying who they nominated clears most possibilities, though, like a nomination blocker, a nomination 'switcher'. There could be a nomination cop. Well hold on, there could be a blocker or switcher; if there is, they targetted someone who didn't nominate one of the current nominees.

And that is

exactly

why I was saying that this information could be misleading.

Glad someone gets it.

Even in a normal mafia game with a cop, you should take into account Guilty Townies, Godfather immunity, and insanity. There is always false information, which you combine from assments of play styles (which contains false information because there are scum pretending to be town).

By your logic, you can't decide a lynch based on information such as scum tells, because some of the information could be false.

/rant

[JDodge]

Even in a normal mafia game with a cop, you should take into account Guilty Townies, Godfather immunity, and insanity. There is always false information, which you combine from assments of play styles (which contains false information because there are scum pretending to be town).

By your logic, you can't decide a lynch based on information such as scum tells, because some of the information could be false.

I'm not saying that we completely ignore scumtells and the like; I'm just saying that any information derived from nominations have enough variables to be completely false.

[Jack]

@Skruffs: You assume that everyone was truthful. In the same post, you assume the mafia didn't nominate eachother, targeted a specific person, made the same nominations. This is problematic.

Now, even if we take the nominations as truthful:

You take not getting nominated as a scumtell. Let's take dean. 11 people, no nominations. Quite striking. Now let's assume 2 of them are his scum partners. 9 people, no nominations. Quite striking.

You also assume the choices were random. Cheesefan probably got a certain number of nominations for being first on the list.

You don't take into account statistical variation. If you look at the list, positions 1,5,7,9 were nominated. Now what are the odds that all would be odd numbers, and 3 of the 4 would be prime? Does it matter?

Cheesefan and yourself got 4 votes, why is Jdodge special for 5?



This kind of analysis is not going to help us at all. It would be easy for scum to say they nominated fircoal. They could say they nominated whoever they liked, it if doesn't add up in the end we have no way of knowing who lied about it. Your assuming maz is innocent and dean and I are scum off of this?

[JDodge]

This kind of analysis is not going to help us at all. It would be easy for scum to say they nominated fircoal. They could say they nominated whoever they liked, it if doesn't add up in the end we have no way of knowing who lied about it. Your assuming maz is innocent and dean and I are scum off of this?

This is what I've been saying all along...

[Jack]

This kind of analysis is not going to help us at all. It would be easy for scum to say they nominated fircoal. They could say they nominated whoever they liked, it if doesn't add up in the end we have no way of knowing who lied about it. Your assuming maz is innocent and dean and I are scum off of this?

This is what I've been saying all along...

But it doesn't hurt us, it maybe tells us something interesting about skruffs.

[Skruffs]

Okay, Jack -

What I am suggesting is that, based on what I see in the numbers. As I said multiple times, it's rambling, and I use the word 'probably' a bunch of times.

I assume everyone is truthful, yes, I have no reason at this time to think otherwise. WHO do you think was being untruthful? Tell me which data should be invalidated before criticizing hypothesises based on that data.

I also said why I am assuming that mafia were not nominating each other, for the same reason that they would not pick the person they knew was dying, and for the same reason they would team up to help make sure that one person (or two) was nominated.

IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT YOU AND DEAN ONLY COINCIDENTALLY PICKED THE SAME TWO PEOPLE.

But adding in all the other things, that i just went over, it's MORE likely that if anything can be gleaned from the numbers, that you and him would be looking most guilty.


"You take not getting nominated as a scumtell."
Where?

[quote="Ghyrt, Romanus, Dean, and yellow bounder didn't receive any votes. that doesn't necessarily mean anything. JDodge received 5 votes."

Is this what you mean? Because it is not saying that not being nominated is a scumtell.

Was Cheesefan's nominations random?
"Jack : "I nominated cheesfan for being first and Jdodge for starting with a J."
Ddean : "I nominated Cheesefan because I like cheese and Jdodge because i like his picture of a dog. Even if there is one scum up I don't think we are going to hit them.
Skruffs: "Me and cheesefan are probably because we picked each other, because we are in another game together"
Central: "I nominated Cheesefan and Jack. "

I personally don't know anything about statistical variation. Please explain more.

JDodge is special because he has one more vote than anyone else, and four of the five people nominating him, aren't nominated themselves. I personally traded nominations with Maz and Cheese, who got pegged bvy you, jack, and CS. Bunny is another special case because he got targetted by Romanus.

"This kind of analysis is not going to help us at all. It would be easy for scum to say they nominated fircoal. They could say they nominated whoever they liked, it if doesn't add up in the end we have no way of knowing who lied about it. Your assuming maz is innocent and dean and I are scum off of this?"

I'm saying what I think based on the numbers, and putting it out there so that everyone else can add their opinion. For all I know, cum *might* be lying about who they nominated, however, the numbers add up. I'm kinda suspicious of yellowbounder for being the last one to claim when he could have claimed earlier; he could b e cleaning up the messes of someone else. With fircoal not here it's entirely possible someone else voted me and fircoal nominated other people.

I will note that you didn't seem very inclined to add any information yourself, you instead used your post mostly to discredit what I did post. My text is not as important as the graph - the graph is what the text is based on. Patterns I see. After today, the way some people are suggesting that we all decide before hand who to nominate, the mafia will know who to vote for, to be able to blend seamlessly in with town. At that point the game will become mostly just keeping suspicion on other people of the town. Today we have the raw information; as has been said before, I personally think scum are more likely to cooperate today to avoid being caught up in a bluff as to who they nominated.

[JDodge]

It all comes down to this; if we're going to claim nominations every day, do you really think scum would be stupid enough to all go after the same people?

[Romanus]

Actually, a lot of what is said could be taken at face value, but as of tonight, it all becomes wifom. I happen to believe that those numbers do tell us something. They are not absolute proof, but just another piece of the puzzle.

[Skruffs]

I'm not talking about 'every day' Dodge. this is just for today. I think claiming won't be important from now on, especially if we are going to be 'pre-deciding' who to nominate the night before. Why? Because if everyone votes for two people, and they are all townies, it is likely the cop will investigate one of them, and it's likely that scum can kill one of them and nominate someone else. On the other hand, if everyone votes for the same two people, why would scum have any reason to *not* vote for them? there's no way to know who voted who excepet in situations like today , where 4 people are nominted with 4/5 votes each.

Just look it over, chew on it a while, come to some conclusions and share them with everyone else.

[JDodge]

If we all vote for the same two people, we'll end up with two people on the block. Isn't that, I don't know, a bad thing?

[Jack]

You're right, I haven't tried to add information. I see posting the nominations as more of a discouraging move.

It's possible that there are some useful patterns, but I won't say what I'm watching for just yet, will wait until there is more data.

You assumption of fircoals nomination is one thing I don't like--there is really only a 20% chance that he nominated you.

I can't say from the chart if anyone is lying. But Maz could have easily have nominated dean and switched it to fircoal. The mafia can take their vote off of someone they know didn't get nominated without risk. If one of the four nominated today is scum, I can see the other two mafia pretending to have nominated him to clear themselves if he gets lynched. Unlike later rounds, you don't have to have reason for nominating someone, this is the easiest round to lie in. The optimal mafia strategy would be to nominate the same two people, then lie about who they nominated to clear themselves. You say it's all worked out correctly, but you're assuming yellowbounders final nomination is correct and that fircoal nominated you as well.

I don't mind analysis as as supplement, but I'd really like to hear your thoughts on the players based on the discussion so far. Analysis of this round is not useful given how easy it would be to lie. You seem to be taking this for more than it's worth; assuming people are innocent.

[Cheesefan]

Skruffs

I Agree with Jack on this one, the graph has its uses, but it doesnt count as evidence against scum.

Also your claim that the nominations on me wernt random is a bit farfetched. I think you might be grasping at straws here.