Mini 387: Suicide Bombers, GAME OVER (at last)!

[pablito]

unvote, vote: Kelly Chen

I can go that way if there's a fourth bomber. If there's three bombers, the case against KC lessens.

However, I"m up for voting Jack again.

[Kelly Chen]

Dare I ask why the case against me lessens if there are 3 bombers?

[Jack]

Standard 12 player, with 3 mafia is over in 3 straight mis-lynches. If the bombers can place 1 bomb per night total, then this game would end with 4 straight mis-lynches (neither bomber nor bombed). Although if you ended up with one town and one bomber it would be a tie.

I think it's still balanced though, because after 3 mislynches the town has to choose from 9 people--harder than choosing from 8.

[pablito]

Because if there's four bombers, I can see why you were able to narrow down yesterday to either MSG and TCS with no regrets. If you were the third bomber, why would you narrow down the two lynches (or at least want to say so) to someone with a bomb or your scum partner? BUt if you were a fourth bomber, you could do so (narrow down to MSG/TCS) safely without any regret because that means you have another helper who still remains hidden.

[chaotic_diablo]

Pretty damn sure that C_D or STD is scum, and I'm leaning rather heavily towards C_D given the aggressiveness of his defenses and his attempts to completely remove the scum from their partners.

Being aggressive in my defense isn't scummy. Would you like me to lie down and give up?

[Twito]

Bumped over ended games.

[pablito]

Who's up for going back to voting Jack? I am!

unvote, vote: Jack

[Twito]

Unvote
Vote: Pablito

I know I'm right cuz the text on the bomb that has been secretly based on me is in spanish. Join me lynch scum.

[pablito]

Twito, why?

[Twito]

Twito, why?

Cuz you speak spanish. Or maybe you only built the bomb?

[pablito]

I'd like to hear KC's response to my three-four bomber thing.

Anyone care to hypothesize why MSG (and/or the whole bomber gang) decided to put a bomb on TCS? Because to me, it wasn't really a smart idea.

[Jack]

Because they aren't very smart? :p

They'd have put it on night one. I wasn't there so I can't really speculate. You'd think they'd put it on one of the people solidly on the ubertimmy wagon though.

[pablito]

Good point,

unvote, vote: Twito

[pablito]

Because I care:

345 - MSG lists:
1. pablito
2. MC/BA
3. TCS (a curious choice)

359 - c_d lists:
1. pablito
2. TCS
3. Twito

362 - Jack
1. pablito
2. MSG
3. KC

363 - KC
1. TCS
2. MSG
3. neongrey (HH)

415 - Dead Rikimaru
1. neongrey
2. Twito
3. chaotic_diablo

423 - pabs
1. KC
2. MSG
3. StD

435 - StD
1. TCS
2. MSG
3. Jack

441 - TCS
1. KC
2. MSG
3. StD

447 - Twito (although Twito has an amazing analysis post in 444, we should all look at it again)
1. MC
2. MSG
3. pablito/KC (really doesn't think there's four scum therefore half-heartedly places us there)

603 - HackerHuck (previously neongrey)
1. MSG
2. pablito
3. TCS

BA's list I think?
1. MSG
2. TCS
3. c_d

Okay, so of the top three lists (or four in Twito's case)
MSG - 8
TCS - 6
pablito - 5
KC - 4
MC/BA - 2
Twito - 2
neon/HH - 2
chaotic - 2
StD - 2
Jack - 1
Dead Riki - ZERO!!!!

Looking back on it all, I'm surprised that the pablito wagon never even initiated yesterday and instead starts today. Instead of the MSG wagon starting (which is very much due to my influence yesterday), TCS started I think mainly because of KC and me. Now I don't think either of us are scum. But I think scum may've been reluctantly starting onto TCS to avoid the MSG wagon. IF all scum knew that TCS had a bomb on him, they should have been a little hesitant to lynch him. This makes me feel that KC is town.

Now, It appeared that MSG was set on lynching MC instead of TCS. chaotic was second in line (he jumped the line) and lists TCS and me and Twito. I'm sure c_d wanted to jump line so that the game didn't lag, but at the same time. hm, the momentum was starting for a pabs wagon, but it never materialized. I mean, what the hell happened? Now I think scum were kinda forced into making their top 2 into what they already had been clamoring for mostly already, but there may have been some manipulation on putting their third suspect. What it all means? Hell if I know. I'm just spitballing here.

Also, I'm not dead set on putting HackerHuck into absolutely must be town pile. I thought that him starting in the game by voting MSG was indicative of him being town, but all other actions from him aren't putting me at ease. I know he's good scum too, so I wouldn't put it behind him either to bus MSG on his entry. And as he just entered, he wouldn't have known about any bombs on TCS I guess, so I have to think that the inclusion of TCS on his list is not really indicative of towniness (I previously posited that wanting both TCS or MSG dead was not a good scum move)

@Twito, I saw you dead set on wanting to lynch c_d yesterday during the top three business and today you haven't yet jumped onto that wagon. I'd like you to say whether you still have interest in seeing c_d lynched at all. I notice that you have bigger priorities (lynching either me or BA), but I don't remember if you've said that you don't think c_d is still scum, merely that he's fallen off due to process of elimination.

@Kelly Chen, what's your thoughts on HackerHuck? Since you were very suspicious of neongrey.

@Dead Rikimaru, where are you?

It seems that after every long analysis I've done today, I keep on coming back with Jack and C_D are most likely scum and that KC and StD's actions were fairly pro-town (KC was very early onto wanting either one of MSG-TCS dead, StD was set on wanting MSG dead). And C_D's top three list isn't comforting. (Jack's is, though) and Jack's kinda-defenses of MSG keep pinging for me.

unvote

- also, I'd vote c_d, but I want discussion and don't want to put him so close to lynch.

[Twito]

@Twito, I saw you dead set on wanting to lynch c_d yesterday during the top three business and today you haven't yet jumped onto that wagon. I'd like you to say whether you still have interest in seeing c_d lynched at all. I notice that you have bigger priorities (lynching either me or BA), but I don't remember if you've said that you don't think c_d is still scum, merely that he's fallen off due to process of elimination.

I was yesterday trying hardest to lynch BA and MSG. But as I couldn't really get support on either lynch as people who later lynched MSG where at that time pushing TCS lynch I was looking for another alternative wagons.

As most of the people where pushing for TCS lynch except you but you were also againts both BA and MSG lynches I was forced to choose from other people. And as I was looking to make alternative wagon basicly with your help BA and MSG choises where excluded. I don't really remember pushing c_d tho.. I might have I count on you here otherwise would need to re-check on this but I'm sure I'd have been more in the favor of KC wagon.

Basicly my main target yesterday was BA and basicly equal secound MSG as I believed that to be the whole scumgroup. TCS however strike me as townie so I was looking for alternative wagons from more scummy people.

This post came kinda a mess but I hope it's understandable.

[Twito]

Thanks to Pabs btw for finding those suspicion lists I'll take a good look at them later.

[Twito]

Twito away for the weekend.

[HackerHuck]

Also, I'm not dead set on putting HackerHuck into absolutely must be town pile. I thought that him starting in the game by voting MSG was indicative of him being town, but all other actions from him aren't putting me at ease. I know he's good scum too, so I wouldn't put it behind him either to bus MSG on his entry. And as he just entered, he wouldn't have known about any bombs on TCS I guess, so I have to think that the inclusion of TCS on his list is not really indicative of towniness (I previously posited that wanting both TCS or MSG dead was not a good scum move)

Thanks for the compliment, but where have you seen me as good scum?

I really like that post, since it got my wheels spinning a bit more. Pablito moves a bit down on my suspicions. I took a look at some of the patterns indicated in the top three lists and it got me scratching my head a bit. I even looked at some different weighting options and it still came up with the same order of suspicion down through the top four. I have a new theory, but I want to sit on it for a day to make sure that it still fits when I'm a little less tired.

I just noticed that the first post states town wins when "...at least one townie survives." I know the mod had stated "vanilla townie" at some point, but I can't recall if the first post ever reflected the vanilla bit.

[Save The Dragons]

Pretty damn sure that C_D or STD is scum,

No. You phail. You're lucky you're not scum, or I'd be on you like a fat kid on a mountain of butter.

I would vote for HH, Jack, or chaotic (to a lesser extent) since i'm not so sure anyone else is scum. DR piques my curiousity for appearing on 0 lists.

[Kelly Chen]

I'd like to hear KC's response to my three-four bomber thing.

It makes sense. I thought you had some more complicated idea. It also occurs to me that four bombers would nerf the meaning of CD's case out of nowhere against MSG early game.

I reread CD and a few other people (Jack, STD, DR) and I didn't notice anything specific, other than that, that gave me the town vibe from CD.

vote: CD

again. That's only three votes I believe.

Anyone care to hypothesize why MSG (and/or the whole bomber gang) decided to put a bomb on TCS? Because to me, it wasn't really a smart idea.

I have tended to think it's because the scum were all inexperienced, or maybe inactive and not communicating. Due to this I think/thought Jack (repl bird) fits better than CD.

Although now that I look at it, Jack replaced in during night.

Oh hey what's this?

Because they aren't very smart? :p

They'd have put it on night one. I wasn't there so I can't really speculate.

OH REALLY...

@Kelly Chen, what's your thoughts on HackerHuck? Since you were very suspicious of neongrey.

I think I was wrong about neongrey, and she was just sucking for some non-alignment-related reason. Nothing HH has done/said seems suspicious to me.

The only thing I've always thought a little weird was this paragraph in his first big post:

I'm not sure why there isn't more support for the Masterchief lynch. Given Twito's and Dead Riki's correct assessment on Ubertimmy, I find that Masterchief fits that same bill. He doesn't seem entirely scummy, but he's absolutely not playing for the town.

So he doesn't seem to advocate an MC lynch, but he suggests that if the town is consistent, we would go after MC on the same reasoning that led to a successful UT lynch.

[Jack]

I have tended to think it's because the scum were all inexperienced, or maybe inactive and not communicating. Due to this I think/thought Jack (repl bird) fits better than CD.

Although now that I look at it, Jack replaced in during night.

Oh hey what's this?
Jack wrote:
Because they aren't very smart? :p

They'd have put it on night one. I wasn't there so I can't really speculate.

OH REALLY...

oh really what? You contradicted yourself...

[Kelly Chen]

How so?

[pablito]

HackerHuck it was Speed Mafia where you were good scum, you got SK killed though for no real reason.

Also, I think Kelly Chen put on the fourth vote of C_D. I think we're at lynch minus one.

[Jack]

How so?

If I replaced during the night then the mafia were hardly inactive or not communicating.

[Kelly Chen]

pablito, I think it's just me, BA, and DR voting CD now.

Let me run through my thought process here

I have tended to think it's because the scum were all inexperienced, or maybe inactive and not communicating. Due to this I think/thought Jack (repl bird) fits better than CD.

CD was around N1 so he should not be making stupid decisions or leaving them to other people. I'd been thinking that Jack replaced bird during D2, which would make Jack more likely than CD to be a member of the dumb-decision-making mafia.

Although now that I look at it, Jack replaced in during night.

But hrm, MBF actually announced Jack

during

N1. So actually Jack could've been part of the decision-making.

Oh hey what's this?

Because they aren't very smart? :p

They'd have put it on night one. I wasn't there so I can't really speculate.

OH REALLY...

Jack actually claims he wasn't around N1. When it seems he could well have been. Or does he claim this?

If I replaced during the night then the mafia were hardly inactive or not communicating.

That was my thought.

Why did you feel the need to point out that you weren't around N1? This strikes me as bizarre considering it isn't even clear you weren't around then.

Here are some times:
D1 lynch scene: Dec 18 8:29pm
Jack replaces in: Dec 20 8:33pm
D2 starts: Dec 22 6:39am

So maybe you didn't have a chance to discuss the night choice, and want to capitalize on that now.