Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[Flench]

I did actually find a hole in my situations though, I don't know if the prime mafia guesses in each situation are paired with any of my mafia guesses, it should be easy to spot. I will try to update the situations later. I am out for awhile.

Ignore this, I did account for the pairs of the prime mafia pick in each situation, that's what the confirmed town is and the remaining players are for.

[StubbsKVM]

This setup is so counter-initiative.

We'd have to have three bs roll up regardless and I don't think three bbb are rolling in a setup like this. That's down in the 1-5% range IMO.

Even if it's 1%, it's still possible.

[Flench]

I don't think I FOS'd saki either..

If that was directed at me.

You are not paired with Saki, so I would agree you did not give an serious pressure to Saki.

[StubbsKVM]

Vote: Saki

I've given Titus enough of a headache.
Saki, you've gotta go.
On the slim chance you're actually town Roleblocker,
then I guess I'll get lynched D2 and we'll have lost two town Roleblockers. :/

I hate how he's already trying to avoid getting lynched after a Saki mislynch

[jmo16mla]

No, that was a reply to Titus.

[Does Bo Know]

Votecount 1.29

[L-5] Titus - Saki, Varsoon
[L-6] CherryDrPepper - Dyslexicon
[L-6] jmo16mla - StubbsKVM
[L-6] Varsoon - jmo16mla
[L-6] Vote Me - oriole

Not Voting: TunnelVision, Vote Me, CherryDrPepper, Paschendale, Glass, Flench, Titus

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, August 2nd, 2013 at 7:30 PM CST ((expired on 2013-08-02 19:30:00)).

---

[StubbsKVM]

Saki, Titus and Varsoon's buddying doesn't mean that if one flips scum, the other will, too.
Most scum will try to avoid buddying, actually.

[CherryDrPepper]

Most scum will try to avoid buddying, actually.

Newbscum wouldn't, newbscum would buddy stronger players

-Sakura Hana

[Titus]

No, that was a reply to Titus.

I will grab the posts in your ISO that suggested you FoSed Saki and then did a 180 when I get back home in a few hours.

CCing a roleblocker as scum works in one of three instances 1) the ccet is pretty confident in getting the other guy lynched or 2) the ccer is the scum roleblocker 3) the ccer is the godfather

Scenario 1 – Difficult to determine if applicable. Requires someone willing to take risks. Varsoon is.

Scenario 2 – Being perceived as town gives the scumrber free range to rb almost anyone

Scenario 3 – Great in cautious group who like a guilty/inno cop result before testing. The cop will vouch for the gf and lynch the real pr.

Lastly, I know not everone thinks like me but logical fallacies will drive me nuts.

[Paschendale]

I think we should be lynching outside of Varsoon and Saki today. Scum will have to kill them so they don't block a kill and get a guilty that way. If they try and play WIFOM with letting one of them hang around a couple nights so we'll lynch them, all the more chances to block a kill.

So let's stop talking about them.

And seriously, Vars, Saki, and Titus, will the three of you shut the fuck up for a while? The three of you are just down to wrestling in the mud by now.

Flench, I like your lists, but the criticism is correct. You did neglect cross bussing. Two people trying really hard to kill each other does not mean that they cannot be of the same alignment. But since you made that assumption across the board, I see no reason to suggest a deliberate act.

Tell me more about this Stubbs vs Jmo fight, though.

There has been so much blithering about Saki vs Varsoon that I don't think talking about it any more is going to help us. Especially not them talking about it. It all basically comes down to the rest of us deciding if we believe their claims or not.

If anyone has anything else to add, I want to hear about the other players, and I want our lurkers to share brief thoughts about what's going on.

Otherwise, if we really want this day to be a Saki vs Varsoon fight, let's just vote and stop yelling at each other.

[StubbsKVM]

@Saki: Claims shouldn't be taken lightly, and there's never reason to vote yourself unless you just want to suicide and yell at town for being incompetent. Okay, well, I did that once, but, yeah, don't.

I kinda want to atm.

Took some digging but found it

[StubbsKVM]

Forget it, this is about self-voting I guess! Whoops!

[StubbsKVM]

Saki, I'm going to politely ask you to shut the fuck up and stop spamming the thread. You've got 200 posts. 2/7ths of all posts.

On the other hand, varsoon still hasn't been lynched..

Hey you. Another prod Dodge?
Why don't you post content next time?

[Flench]

I think we should be lynching outside of Varsoon and Saki today. Scum will have to kill them so they don't block a kill and get a guilty that way. If they try and play WIFOM with letting one of them hang around a couple nights so we'll lynch them, all the more chances to block a kill.

So let's stop talking about them.

And seriously, Vars, Saki, and Titus, will the three of you shut the fuck up for a while? The three of you are just down to wrestling in the mud by now.

Flench, I like your lists, but the criticism is correct. You did neglect cross bussing. Two people trying really hard to kill each other does not mean that they cannot be of the same alignment. But since you made that assumption across the board, I see no reason to suggest a deliberate act.

Tell me more about this Stubbs vs Jmo fight, though.

There has been so much blithering about Saki vs Varsoon that I don't think talking about it any more is going to help us. Especially not them talking about it. It all basically comes down to the rest of us deciding if we believe their claims or not.

If anyone has anything else to add, I want to hear about the other players, and I want our lurkers to share brief thoughts about what's going on.

Otherwise, if we really want this day to be a Saki vs Varsoon fight, let's just vote and stop yelling at each other.

Two people trying to kill each other can be of the same alignment but they both cannot be mafia. So if one in a pair is mafia, the other must be town. That's the whole point of my analysis. I understand they can both be town, that is taken into consideration in my post. Each situation starts with the premise a certain person is mafia and goes from there.

Here's the Stubbs attack on jmo, I could see a him putting a mafia teammate on his "leaning mafia" list to avoid suspicion, but not on his top mafia pick.

Okay, I read through some ISO's and this is what I came up with.

Town

Glass
Oriole
Paschendale

Leaning Town

Saki
Titus
Dyslexicon

Null

Varsoon
Vote Me

Leaning Scum

CherryDrPepper
Flench
Tunnel Vision

Scum

JMO

That'll have to do for now. If you have any questions, shoot.

[CherryDrPepper]

DP Head catching up. The number of posts while I was gone is giving me a headache. Like Dafuq, guys

Varsoon and Saki counterclaiming RB. First off, theres a chance that there are two town RBs, but theres a chance that they could be one town and one scum. Im inclined to think that if that were the case, Im leaning more Varsoon scum RB because Im sure Varsoon, from experience, knows that the variable set up allows multiple town PRs thus wont use the counter claim as a way to incriminate the other person. I dont think Varsoon needed to claim in the first place.

Titus, your whole, "Saki is scummy but Im willing to go for Varsoon" is opportunistic as fuck.
I totally disagree with lynch the scummier RB, what happens if one flips town, lynch the other? And if they both flip town then a powerful PR dies? Let the other PRs handle this IMO.

Saki, you never wanted to claim? You shouldnt have until asked. Both of you shouldnt have.

Im agreeing with my other head's analysis

I've seen scum Titus, contradicting herself on things she believes are definitive scum traits. I'd be okay with voting her but I wont until I see a VC.

"You're still not sure that I'm scum?" - Saki. Feels like a slip IMO.

Im liking TunnelVision

Oriole, your 677 assumes that they are both town. Do you know something we dont? Also 681

Varsoon, maybe we've sit back cause all three of you have been spamming the thread and we werent online at that time. Plus Sakura did post at times. Bad vote to diffuse the situation. How were we actively participating in making your 1v1? That unvote was a bad way to save face

Saki. 712 You jelly?
724 Explain.

Flench, why cant scum try to distance/bus at this point? On that note of the four, which one are you most certain of?

Great point by Stubbs. Im inclined to think Varsoon is the scum RB. "If I die, I flip Roleblocker". Such a vague blanket statement. Could mean scum Roleblocker too

Yeah thats about it

[StubbsKVM]

Yay, I'm caught up!!!

To be honest, Varsoon has taken a dive to my scumlist.

Jmo has not posted any content.

Flench's notes are a great effort. I don't think scum would do such a thourough readlist.

I would choose between Varsoon and JMO at this point

[Varsoon]

@Stubbs: I don't like setup speculation and use of exclusive knowledge. It's frustrating for players outside of the claiming PRs to deal with when a PR claims and it's especially useless when people start listing MXBBBTTT or whatnot and Wifom themselves into oblivion.

@Titus: Alternatively, I'm pointing out that Flench is doing a good job and more of the same is welcome later. I'm encouraging a tactic that I haven't seen before. Sure, I've seen lists, but nothing of that magnitude--especially on D1.

@CherryDP: On my vote/unvote of your slot, t'was late and I thought you'd posted a bit to get me riled up against Titus/Saki. Also, I really wanted to see if Titus or Saki would jump on that vote, because it'd confirm them as scum for me. I gave them an opportunity to get out of the quagmire and lynch someone else, but they didn't, so it complicated my reads.
I think that saying "If I die, I flip town roleblocker" is much worse of a statement, because it re-iterates that I'm town, subtly, while giving it the power of a PR claim. Instead, I'd like the discussion to be solely about the PR claim in opposition to Saki's (when discussing the two) instead of an argument of alignment vs alignment--if this makes sense. I don't feel like I need to prove I'm more town than Saki, but that I am actually the role I claimed, which is in somewhat direct conflict with the role Saki claimed.

@Pasche: <3 Alright, lips sealed. I'll stay in thread and comment if I notice something new or in response to anything people have to ask me.

[Flench]

Flench, why cant scum try to distance/bus at this point? On that note of the four, which one are you most certain of?

I don't know what you mean. Mafia could sit back do nothing, which is why for my reads on Stubbs and VoteMe I wrote afk > kill. Quiet people should not be allowed to remain so.

The situations are numbered in order of likelihood(by my reads so far), I should have mentioned that. Saki and Varsoon both being RB is a very low chance so there is a high chance there is a mafia member in that pair, that's not even a read, just statistics.

So to clarify my top mafia picks in order (each has his own situation in my post)
1. Saki - mafia read and in the most likely mafia pair
2. Varsoon - no read but in the most likely mafia pair
3. Cherry - mafia read
4. JMO - bad town read or just annoying and unhelpful
5. Titus - town read but a weak one

I don't have enough info on VoteMe so I can't do anything with that, so he is near the top of the kill list, even though I can't put him at the top of the mafia list because I have no evidence.

Sorry if I am posting too much at this point because I was also annoyed as hell I had to read those 12 pages of Saki, Varsoon, RB shitstorm, but I am just answering questions about my post at this point.

[Varsoon]

@Flench: Don't ever be sorry for posting too much. Posting is the only way the game moves.

[Flench]

@Flench: Don't ever be sorry for posting too much. Posting is the only way the game moves.

Tell that to pages 12 > 24

12 people had to read all that shit that was posted in 24 hours, just make sure your posts have a point is what I'm saying.

Two roles did claim but it could have been compressed to 3-4 pages probably.

[StubbsKVM]

@Stubbs: I don't like setup speculation and use of exclusive knowledge. It's frustrating for players outside of the claiming PRs to deal with when a PR claims and it's especially useless when people start listing MXBBBTTT or whatnot and Wifom themselves into oblivion.

So why did you claim?

[StubbsKVM]

I'll be on V/LA for the entire weekend. Might pop in on Sunday(but don't count on it)

[CherryDrPepper]

VCA is interesting, but i think Suspect analysis is far better.

Flench -

Saki

,

Varsoon

Varsoon

- Titus,

Saki

StubbsKVM -

Varsoon

, JMO
CherryDrPepper (Sakura) - Titus,

Varsoon

CherryDrPepper (DP) - Titus, ???

Paschendale

- Titus,

Saki

Titus -

Saki

, JMO
JMO -

Varsoon

, Titus

Saki

-

Varsoon

, Titus
oriole - Vote Me, ???
Glass -

Saki

, ???
TunnelVision -

Varsoon

?,

Saki

? (Not entirely sure)
Dyslexicon - Varsoon,

Saki

Vote Me - ??? (Back from V/LA, gonna catch up, hasn't done it yet)

These are the current standings on everyone's suspects, notice how almost no one has laid any suspicion on the people lurking.

@Dyslexicon: Anything else you wanna mention?
@Glass: What do you think of any of the people with less than 30 posts in the thread?
@Vote Me: How long does it take you to catch up?
@Everyone that has either Varsoon or Saki on their suspect list: What makes you think we should be focusing on those 2?
IMO: it is quite possible scum is trying to let us watch both roleblockers argue while they are lurking, we need to draw people out so they can start taking stances, otherwise we will never catch the scum.

Also it seems that my other head agrees on this vote for now
VOTE: Titus
Reasons already specified previously.

-Sakura Hana

[Paschendale]

Two people trying to kill each other can be of the same alignment but they both cannot be mafia. So if one in a pair is mafia, the other must be town. That's the whole point of my analysis. I understand they can both be town, that is taken into consideration in my post. Each situation starts with the premise a certain person is mafia and goes from there.

Uh... sure they can. I've done that as scum. Fighting with a teammate early on but never building enough steam to get a lynch is a good way to do early distancing. However, I don't think the Vars/Saki situation is an example of it, because it is likely to lead to a lynch. But don't rule it out.

Here's the Stubbs attack on jmo, I could see a him putting a mafia teammate on his "leaning mafia" list to avoid suspicion, but not on his top mafia pick.

I wouldn't call a read list an attack, but it is lacking context. Looking at his ISO, he voted Jmo about 150 posts earlier, and that list was his catchup after being gone for that duration. Continuing his ISO, his vote is still there. I would definitely like to hear Stubbs defend that vote in light of the hundreds of posts since then (though few have been from or about Jmo, but I want something).

Saki, I'm going to politely ask you to shut the fuck up and stop spamming the thread. You've got 200 posts. 2/7ths of all posts.

On the other hand, varsoon still hasn't been lynched..

Hey you. Another prod Dodge?
Why don't you post content next time?

This is a valid criticism, but it also applies to Stubbs. And now going V/LA right after catching up does not fill me with happies.

Flench, I don't really like the pairing angle. Don't make associations based on unflipped slots. They're usually wrong. Explain your Cherry scum read specifically.

Cherry, I'm trying very hard not to focus on Vars/Saki/Titus. I think there is much danger of letting lurkers off the hook, and we should not proceed until they weigh in.

In general, I don't see the scum vibe from Titus, so if anyone wants to try and make that case in a concise manner, I'd appreciate it.

[Varsoon]

@Stubbs: Because that's what you do when someone claims your role.


@Cherry/Pasche: I've agreed on the lurker bit for awhile. Is there a good way to get the less active people involved?