Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[Does Bo Know]

Votecount 1.28

[L-5] Titus - Saki, Varsoon
[L-6] CherryDrPepper - Dyslexicon
[L-6] Saki - Titus
[L-6] jmo16mla - StubbsKVM
[L-6] Varsoon - jmo16mla
[L-6] Vote Me - oriole

Not Voting: TunnelVision, Vote Me, CherryDrPepper, Paschendale, Glass, Flench

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, August 2nd, 2013 at 7:30 PM CST ((expired on 2013-08-02 19:30:00)).

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[Saki]

yer the last person I thought would vote Titus

Titus flips scum, you're nearly auto-scum. Thoughts?

'you' as in Varsoon

[Varsoon]

Thoughts are that I'll handle that if it becomes an issue on D2.

[Saki]

Thoughts are that I'll handle that if it becomes an issue on D2.

I'm going to push you personally.

Yer going to handle me?, ner you cannot ser.

[Saki]

Don't lynch me while I'm gone however tempting that may be.

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Global Post

Sorry folks, meatworld has claimed Saki.
dw Saki always finds his way out of it somehow he'll be back in around 36-48 hours.

[jmo16mla]

Saki, I'm going to politely ask you to shut the fuck up and stop spamming the thread. You've got 200 posts. 2/7ths of all posts.

On the other hand, varsoon still hasn't been lynched..

[Titus]

Back and I plan on this being the last post before I get off for the night. Posts 726 and 727 really confuse me if Varsoon is town. He should be annoyed at the implications that Saki is essentially calling him scum even if he votes me just because I believed that Varsoon was town. He's like oh well we'll deal with it if Titus is scum. That doesn't make sense. Varsoon is playing this way too cool for my liking. Saki (despite his hell vengence on lynching me) looks more town in the exchange because his emotions seem more genuine.

Also, what the heck is 729?

I also ISOed Saki a bit. What I observed was pretty clear. Saki has had three "major" FoSes throughout the game; Cherry, myself and Tunnel. Cherry was FoSed after he did his huge wallread claiming Saki was scum. I was FoSed after I said I thought Saki was scummy. Tunnel was FoSed after he said Saki was scummy. Is there anything to your FoSes Saki beyond the fact that people find you scummy? I don't know whether this is a newb town or newb scum tell but it's definitely newb something.

I'd really also like to see jmo's post on why he changed from Saki to Varsoon, that doesn't make sense to me.

Flench and VoteMe haven't really commented on what's happening here.

I'll take the night and reflect on this, see if I can come around to the perspective that not lynching Saki/Varsoon is a good option. I don't see it right now though.

[Varsoon]

@JMO:

Spoiler:

@Titus: Saki's attempts to call me scum are about as effective as a child throwing ice-cubes at the sun.
I don't see how if you're scum, that makes me scum, but it's whatever.
If my hunch is right, you're scum.
If wrong, I should probably stop trusting gut-reads/other players.

[jmo16mla]

I don't remember voting saki..

[Flench]

I started taking notes and decided to just post the notes instead of redoing everything on the computer, sorry if you don't like pictures.

These are some important voting points in the game where I noted how severe the vote was, or how much pressure was being applied, one line of a star is almost no pressure, a full star is a lot of pressure. My gut reads are also here on the right.

1.

This is a list of "Pairs of Fighters" (what a bad title). These are pairs of people who have been showing lots of aggression towards each other or at least in one direction. Mafia doesn't like to do this to other mafia members, so at least one in each pair is town. Some pressure I thought was weak or fake, included here are the pressures I thought were legit and dangerous for the person being pressured.

2.

These are four situations which I find the most likely. I am sure one of them is correct.
'
3.

[CherryDrPepper]

There are a few issues with your sheet tho, i've bee having mixed feelings towards Varsoon and Titus after Saki's claim and Varsoon's claim, settling finally on Titus, tho i'm not voting yet due to the fact that i rather consult my other head first, and your analysis seems to be more VCA than anything when D1 isn't even finished yet and we haven't had flips.

-Sakura Hana

[CherryDrPepper]

Also your analysis dismisses possible Cross bussing

-Sakura Hana

[Varsoon]

@Fletch: Looking at everything on paper is really cool, and no one has done that yet in any games I've had. When players do things like that, it makes me really interested and so on.
As far as the content of your stuff goes, scum could always be bussing scum and making distance from each-other, but you do account a bit for that on the truthiness/believable exchanges of the pair of fighters. I think the strongest thing here is the vote severity list, but everything gives a lot of insight on how you think players are operating and how you read people.
Basically, this is the most town thing I could imagine you doing. You've put a lot of effort into something large, tangible, and easily followed for trajectory across the game. The level of engagement and the genuine nature of it ring as soundly town to me.

I think Option 4/3 is what I'd go with now. Could you plot out a 'If Titus is Scum' one?

[Flench]

Cherry please explain exactly what I disregarded or left out and I will try to explain it.

I did consider doing the situation in which Titus was mafia so why not. The mafia guesses in all the situations also use the Pairs of Fighters page to make sure a pair cannot be on my guesses, because one in a pair must be town.

[Varsoon]

Thanks for being so compliant, Flench.
This really goes a long way, and, if you are town, it'll do an amazing job of proving that later in the game.
If you're scum, it'll have the same effect, since you just provided a lot of hypothetical outlooks that'll play into trajectory of your votes/methods later.
Essentially, you're being as transparent as possible through these last few posts, and I see that as the most town thing a player can do.

[StubbsKVM]

At 404 on my phone but out of time.

Who really bothers me is Varsoon.

First I read a post that he hates setup speculation. Then a few pages later, when the speculation begins after Saki's claim, he doesn't mention it.

And even worse, also claims and joins in on the speculation.("is it possible we're both roleblockers?"

I still have a LOT of pages to go, so apologies if someone else has already pointed this out

[StubbsKVM]

@Pasche: I will flip Roleblocker if I die.
Also, I will choose the target we agree on. I'd like to talk to all of town about who I should Roleblock.

This is also pretty bad.

[StubbsKVM]

Stopping at #500.

I agree with Saki on Varsoon/Titus buddying. Most of the buddying seems to be coming from Titus though.

[Titus]

Wow! Those last posts by Varsoon are epic buddying. "Thanks for being complaint" and the whole gist that some buddy has never put together a chart detailing relationships is absurd.

I think the effort by Flench is something not typical of the mafia. French would you like a link to a bbcode generator? That would make your pictures easier to understand.

VOTE: unvote

@Flench, why would CherryDrPepper hardbus Saki at the start which is what the pattern implies at first.

Saki's reactions seem town lately. Perhaps he has had an epic fail in communication and logic.

I am going to watch these two closely. I am still convinced lynching between these two is the best option.

@jmo, you never did vote Saki but there was a clear sudden shift from a Saki FoS to a Varsoon FoS.

[Flench]

Wow! Those last posts by Varsoon are epic buddying. "Thanks for being complaint" and the whole gist that some buddy has never put together a chart detailing relationships is absurd.

I think the effort by Flench is something not typical of the mafia. French would you like a link to a bbcode generator? That would make your pictures easier to understand.

VOTE: unvote

@Flench, why would CherryDrPepper hardbus Saki at the start which is what the pattern implies at first.

Saki's reactions seem town lately. Perhaps he has had an epic fail in communication and logic.

I am going to watch these two closely. I am still convinced lynching between these two is the best option.

@jmo, you never did vote Saki but there was a clear sudden shift from a Saki FoS to a Varsoon FoS.

Well I have Varsoon in the mafia circle in 4 out of the 5 situations so if you think we are buddies I don't even know.

Him being my prime mafia guess in situation 2 is also my second most likely situation sooo.

Cherry voted on Saki after Pasche and I had, a mafia would not add to the wagon on another mafia in such a way. That's the kind of thing I was looking for when I made the pairs of fighters page.

Of course I will probably not be able to do another one of these for a long time or maybe never because now the mafia will try to meta my methods.

[Titus]

I wasn't suggesting you were scum together based off what Varsoon said. I was calling Varsoon's tactics buddying, which is basically sucking up.

You could do that tactic again later. Looking for associations is very hard to hide Flench. Looking at voting patterns is pretty good. The mafia can't meta out associations. Facts are facts.

[Titus]

Scenario 3 doesn't give with your gut reads. I will look in more detail when I get back home later.

[Flench]

Scenario 3 doesn't give with your gut reads. I will look in more detail when I get back home later.

So I started with the gut read on Varsoon, then going from there, I used the pairs of fighters page to make sure I could not have a pair in my mafia guesses, so I went with my next gut that could fit into my rules, jmo, that eliminated Stubbs, then I used the remaining players to find the one that would fit best and decided Titus because of the Varsoon connection others have mentioned.

I did actually find a hole in my situations though, I don't know if the prime mafia guesses in each situation are paired with any of my mafia guesses, it should be easy to spot. I will try to update the situations later. I am out for awhile.

[StubbsKVM]

Titus, I want to remind you that not everyone thinks as you do. Although it doesn't make much sense for Varsoon to cc Saki if he's scum, there's still a possibility that this is the case.

You seem to disregard this option( or at least I get that feeling)

Anyway, the rest of your content has been fine.

[jmo16mla]

I don't think I FOS'd saki either..